105 Pawnee Pkwy · Buffalo, NY 14210

$299,900

4 bd · 2.0 ba · 2,448 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 7 Days on market

Built 1920 6,685 sqft lot Est $237k · 26% over

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Why this score? — see what drove the D- grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Appreciation +10.0/10.0
• Cash flow +7.8/30.0
• Rent growth +5.0/5.0
• Livability +3.9/5.0
• Schools +3.3/10.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• DSCR +1.9/10.0
• 1% rule +1.0/10.0
• ARV discount +0.0/15.0

Listing remarks

Charming fully remodeled home blending classic character with modern finishes. The stunning original details include unique stately framed woodwork, leaded windows, tall ceilings, built in bookcases, and a lovely morning room to enjoy a peaceful start to your day. This home offers a brand new remodeled entertainers kitchen featuring quartz countertops, two toned cabinets with under cabinet lighting, sleek tile flooring, large island that seats four, black stainless steel appliances, plus new fixtures and lighting to complete this gorgeous space! Kitchen and Living area feature built in ceiling speakers great for entertaining or not missing out when the game is on. Large first floor office p

Key facts

• Fully remodeled home
• Built in bookcases
• Tall ceilings

Tags

• FULLY REMODELED HOME
• ORIGINAL DETAILS
• STATELY FRAMED WOODWORK
• LEADED WINDOWS
• TALL CEILINGS
• BUILT IN BOOKCASES

Property features AI

Exterior

• Parking: No garage
• Utilities: High-speed internet available; Public water (connected); Sewer connected; Circuit breaker electrical
• Home design: 2-story house; Resale property; Asphalt roof; Rectangular lot; Near public transit; City street / main thoroughfare frontage
• Construction: Vinyl siding; Copper and PEX plumbing; Block foundation
• Exterior features: Private yard; Fully fenced yard; Patio; Concrete driveway; Shed(s) / storage

Interior

• Kitchen: Gas range; Gas oven; Microwave; Dishwasher; Garbage disposal; Range hood; Refrigerator; Kitchen island; Quartz counters; Breakfast bar; Eat-in kitchen
• Basement: Full basement
• Bedrooms: Convertible bedroom (room level not specified)
• Flooring: Hardwood; Carpet; Tile; Varied flooring
• Bathrooms: 2 full bathrooms; 1 main-level bathroom
• Fireplace: One fireplace
• Heating & cooling: Gas forced-air heating; Central air conditioning
• Interior features: Leaded glass windows; Breakfast bar; Ceiling fan(s); Separate/formal dining room; Entrance foyer; Eat-in kitchen; Separate/formal living room; Home office; Kitchen island; Quartz counters; Natural woodwork; Convertible bedroom; See remarks
• Laundry & utility: Washer; Dryer; Laundry located in basement
• Appliances negotiable: Some appliances negotiable

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 4-bed/2.0-bath single-family listed at $300k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-337 ($-4k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $240k (19.8% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $181k (39.7% below list).
• Recommended offer: $181k (39.7% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Cap rate 4.9% vs local median 8.0% in Buffalo — below-typical yield; the buyer is paying a premium for something (appreciation thesis, condition, location) that the cap rate doesn't capture.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 77/100 on livability (#195 in NY, #3,011 nationally) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: commute A+, housing A+, health & safety A+; Watch: crime F, employment D-.
• Buffalo City School District (urban): math 41% / reading 40% proficiency, ranked #535 of 590 in NY (top 91%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases; 75% free/reduced lunch — lower-income household profile, screen leases tightly.
• Market conditions: Rents rising fast (+12.7%/yr); 94 active listings in the ZIP; 1 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; 1,244 units permitted in Erie County in 2024 (563 in 5+ unit buildings).
• This rent runs 40% of the median local income ($54k/yr) — at the standard rent-burdened threshold; future hikes will face affordability resistance.

Forward outlook

• In year one you build about $32k of equity ($2k loan paydown + $30k appreciation (10.0% local appreciation)).
• By year 2, paydown + projected appreciation supports a ~$52k cash-out refi (75% LTV) — recoverable capital for the next deal without selling this one.

Negotiation context

• Only 7 days on market — expect competitive offers; lowballing is unlikely to land.
• 2 sale attempts since 6y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.
• Current owner paid $163k; list at $300k implies a 84% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.

Risks & watch-outs

• Watch-outs: built in 1920 — expect roof / HVAC / electrical / plumbing capex.
• Climate carrying-cost: major flood risk — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $180,849 (39.7% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. Built in 1920 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
3. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
4. Crime grade is F in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
5. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
6. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
7. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
8. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.60% ✗
• Cap rate: 4.95%
• Cash-on-cash: -4.81%
• DSCR: 0.79
• GRM: 13.8

CMA / ARV

• ARV (on-the-fly): $237,456
• Comps found: 5

Show comp detail 5 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
31 Glendhu Pl	0.67mi	4/1.5	2,392 (-2%)	2mo	$306,000	$128	61
80 Fredro St	0.53mi	4/2.0	2,310 (-6%)	8mo	$225,000	$97	59
1740 Clinton St	0.69mi	5/2.0 (+1)	2,560 (+5%)	5mo	$219,900	$86	51
223 Weimar St	0.61mi	4/2.0	2,352 (-4%)	19mo	$260,000	$111	49
40 Spann St	0.46mi	4/2.0	2,083 (-15%)	7mo	$105,000	$50	48

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

10.0% appreciation · 8.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 22.1%
• Equity multiple: 2.80×
• Total profit: $151,288
• Equity at exit: $270,174

10-year hold

• IRR: 20.8%
• Equity multiple: 6.78×
• Total profit: $485,735
• Equity at exit: $582,640

Cash invested: $83,972 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 15 Strongly Tenant-Friendly
• State New York: 15 Strongly Tenant-Friendly · D+10
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

NYC rent stabilization (~1M units); 2019 HSTPA strengthened tenant rights; courts deeply backlogged.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 14210

• Home prices YoY: 13.8%
• Rents YoY: 12.7%
• Active inventory: 94
• Price-to-rent: 13.8×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,808 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,573
• Tax from tax record: −$68 /mo · $812/yr
• Insurance: −$125
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$380
• Net cashflow: $-337

Break-even live

Break-even rent $2,235

Max offer price $240,428

Occupancy floor —

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $74,975
• Closing costs: $8,997
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 1 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
181 Willett St Buffalo, NY	3.0	1.0	2704	$1,550	$0.57	1d	1	0.54mi

Listing history 11 events

1. 2026-06-07
   status $299,900 Pending 7 DOM
2. 2026-06-03
   days on market $299,900 Active 7 DOM
3. 2026-06-02
   days on market $299,900 Active 6 DOM
4. 2026-06-01
   days on market $299,900 Active 5 DOM
5. 2026-05-31
   days on market $299,900 Active 4 DOM
6. 2026-05-27
   listed $299,900 Active
7. 2020-06-19
   soldstatus $163,000 Closed Sale or Rented
8. 2020-06-19
   soldstatus $157,043
9. 2020-06-09
   status Pending Sale
10. 2020-06-09
    listed $163,000 Active
11. 2009-01-23
    soldstatus $86,000

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast NY · Partial reset (capped growth)

• Current annual tax: $812 · $68/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $2,940 · $245/mo
• Expected delta: +$2,128/yr (+$177/mo · 261.9%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 6/10 Major FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 66% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 2/10 Low
• 🌡 Heat 3/10 Moderate 7 d/yr ≥92°F today · 15 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 1/10 Low
• 🫁 Air quality 3/10 Moderate 2 unhealthy d/yr today · 3 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $21,702
• − Mortgage interest: −$16,799
• − Property taxes: −$812
• − Insurance: −$1,500
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,736
• − Management: −$1,736
• − Depreciation: −$8,724
• Taxable loss: −$9,606
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$2,305
• After-tax cash flow: $-1,735/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Buffalo City School District
• NCES district ID: 3605850
• Math proficiency: 41% ▲ 11.00%
• Reading proficiency: 40% ▲ 7.00%
• Median HH income: $31,665
• Composite: 33.17/100
• National rank: #5544
• State rank: #535 of 590 in NY

Livability — Buffalo

• Score: 77/100
• State rank: #195
• US rank: #3011

Category grades

Amenities A Commute A+ Cost of living A Crime F Employment D- Housing A+ Health & safety A+ User ratings F

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Buffalo, NY
• County: Erie County · 714,559 people
• City population: 440,021
• Metro: Buffalo-Cheektowaga, NY
• Population (ZIP): 15,563
• Household income: $54,197
• Rent vs Own: 53.9% rent · 46.1% own
• Severe rent burden: 959.0

Population outlook (Erie County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 933,037 people
• By 2030: 935,181 · +0.2%
• By 2040: 928,531 · -0.5%
• By 2050: 905,725 · -2.9%
• By 2075: 834,037 · -10.6%
• By 2100: 708,033 · -24.1%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (79%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 79% Two or more races 8% Black 8% Hispanic / Latino 7% Asian 1%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Puerto Rican 6%
• Common ancestry: Romanian 21% Lithuanian 2% Serbian 1%
• Foreign-born: 2% · Canada, China
• Languages at home: 95% English-only · Spanish 2% Arabic 1% Other Indo-European 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Erie

• 2024 margin: Lean D (+9.7) · D 54.8% · R 45.2%
• 2008→2024 swing: -7.9pp toward R · 2008: 17.5pp · 2024: 9.7pp
• All cycles: 2024: D+9.7 2020: D+14.7 2016: D+4.8 2012: D+15.6 2008: D+17.5

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▲ 52.34%
• Current HPI: 431.7951
• Rent YoY: ▲ 12.67%
• Metro: Buffalo-Cheektowaga, NY
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 2.60%
• F500 in state: 92

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in NY)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Financial Services	10	$950B
▸Consumer Goods	9	$162B
▸Insurance	4	$225B
▸Telecommunications	2	$144B
▸Pharmaceuticals	2	$112B
▸Media / Entertainment	2	$69B

Price history

+248.7% since first listed

6 events — show timeline

• 2026-05-27 Listed $299,900 WNYREIS
• 2020-06-19 Sold (Public Records) $157,043 Public Records
• 2020-06-19 Sold (MLS) $163,000 WNYREIS
• 2020-06-09 Pending — WNYREIS
• 2020-06-09 Listed $163,000 WNYREIS
• 2009-01-23 Sold (Public Records) $86,000 Public Records

Property tax history

+5.2%/yr

Latest (2025): $812 · +11.5% YoY. Source: county tax records.