11414 Serra #15 · Apple Valley, CA 92308

$70,000

2 bd · 2.0 ba · 840 sqft · Manufactured public records · 139 Days on market

Built 1985 $83/sqft · 29% above area Est $54k · 29% over

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Why this score? — see what drove the C+ grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +30.0/30.0
• 1% rule +10.0/10.0
• DSCR +10.0/10.0
• Rent growth +3.6/5.0
• Schools +3.1/10.0
• Livability +3.1/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• ARV discount +0.0/15.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

Welcome to this well-maintained 2-bedroom, 1.5-bath manufactured home located in a desirable senior community in Apple Valley. This home offers a functional floor plan with a comfortable living area and the convenience of a half bath for guests. The kitchen provides ample cabinet space and opens to the dining area, making it ideal for everyday living. Both bedrooms are generously sized, with the primary bedroom offering direct access to the bathroom. Indoor laundry and thoughtful storage add to the home’s practicality. Situated in a quiet, age-restricted park, residents enjoy a peaceful environment while remaining close to shopping, dining, medical facilities, and local amenities. This is a great opportunity to own an affordable home in a well-established senior community. Park approval required.

Key facts

• Built 1985
• Listed 139 days

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 2-bed/2.0-bath manufactured listed at $70k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $924 ($11k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($2k rent vs $70k).
• Recommended offer: $62k (12.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Cap rate 22.1% vs local median 3.5% in Apple Valley — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 61/100 on livability (#532 in CA) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: housing A+, commute B+; Watch: employment D+, schools F, crime D-.
• Apple Valley Unified (suburban): math 25% / reading 40% proficiency, ranked #955 of 1,400 in CA (top 68%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases; 60% free/reduced lunch — lower-income household profile, screen leases tightly.
• Market conditions: Rents rising fast (+4.3%/yr); 417 active listings in the ZIP; 6 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals lingering (median 44d on market — plan ~5-8 weeks vacancy on turnover, expect pricing pressure); 50% of comp listings sitting > 30 days — soft ceiling on asking rent; 5,458 units permitted in San Bernardino County in 2024 (1,500 in 5+ unit buildings).
• This rent runs 31% of the median local income ($67k/yr) — at the standard rent-burdened threshold; future hikes will face affordability resistance.

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $484 of loan paydown is wiped out by about $2k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• San Bernardino County population projected at +15% by 2050 — modest demand growth; plan on rents tracking national, not racing it.
• At projected returns (-3.0% appreciation + 4.3% rent growth), your $20k cash investment doubles in ~2 years — after that, you're playing with house money.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 139 days — a 12% lower offer ($62k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 4 sale attempts since 7y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.
• Current owner paid $54k; 30% above their basis — modest negotiation headroom, anchor on the comps not their cost.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: major wildfire risk; extreme-heat days projected 1→3/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $61,600 (12.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 139 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 12% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
3. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
4. Schools are F-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
5. Crime grade is D in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
6. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
7. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
8. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 2.42% ✓
• Cap rate: 22.13%
• Cash-on-cash: 56.57%
• DSCR: 3.52
• GRM: 3.4

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $54,187
• List price: $70,000
• Delta: 29.18%
• Verdict: OVERPRICED
• Comps: 7 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 5 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
11414 Serra #51	0.00mi	2/1.0	860 (+2%)	10mo	$57,000	$66	83
11414 Serra Rd #35	0.03mi	2/1.0	860 (+2%)	11mo	$47,000	$55	82
11414 Serra Rd #40	0.03mi	1/1.0 (-1)	840 (0%)	11mo	$30,000	$36	81
11414 Serra Rd #46	0.03mi	2/1.0	950 (+13%)	1mo	$55,000	$58	72
11414 Serra Rd #73	0.03mi	2/2.0	960 (+14%)	7mo	$55,000	$57	68

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 4.3% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 56.4%
• Equity multiple: 3.54×
• Total profit: $49,733
• Equity at exit: $10,437

10-year hold

• IRR: 61.8%
• Equity multiple: 7.55×
• Total profit: $128,468
• Equity at exit: $6,052

Cash invested: $19,600 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 18 Strongly Tenant-Friendly
• State California: 18 Strongly Tenant-Friendly · D+13
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

AB1482 statewide rent cap (10% + CPI). Cities (SF/LA/Berkeley) layer stricter rules. Just-cause statewide.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 92308

• Home prices YoY: -28.8%
• Rents YoY: 4.3%
• Active inventory: 417
• Price-to-rent: 3.4×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,694 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$367
• Tax from tax record: −$18 /mo · $212/yr
• Insurance: −$29
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$356
• Net cashflow: $924

Break-even live

Break-even rent $524

Max offer price $70,000

Occupancy floor 40%

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $17,500
• Closing costs: $2,100
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 6 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
11992 Itoya Vista Rd Unit C Apple Valley, CA	1.0	1.0	650	$1,390	$2.14	43d	1	0.66mi
10811 Kiowa Rd Unit 3A Apple Valley, CA	1.0	1.0	700	$1,250	$1.79	2d	1	0.93mi
12212 Kiowa Rd Unit 4 Apple Valley, CA	2.0	2.0	990	$1,700	$1.72	5d	1	1.00mi
21181 Balsa St Apple Valley, CA	3.0	2.0	1080	$2,500	$2.31	43d	1	1.36mi
12525 Kiowa Rd Unit 3 Apple Valley, CA	2.0	1.0	799	$1,675	$2.10	43d	1	1.38mi
21490 Bear Valley Rd Apt A Apple Valley, CA	2.0	1.0	875	$1,595	$1.82	20d	1	1.43mi

Listing history 21 events

1. 2026-06-18
   days on market $70,000 Active 139 DOM
2. 2026-06-17
   days on market $70,000 Active 138 DOM
3. 2026-06-16
   days on market $70,000 Active 137 DOM
4. 2026-06-15
   days on market $70,000 Active 136 DOM
5. 2026-06-13
   days on market $70,000 Active 134 DOM
6. 2026-06-13
   days on market $70,000 Active 133 DOM
7. 2026-06-09
   days on market $70,000 Active 130 DOM
8. 2026-06-08
   days on market $70,000 Active 129 DOM
9. 2026-06-07
   days on market $70,000 Active 128 DOM
10. 2026-06-04
    days on market $70,000 Active 125 DOM
11. 2026-06-03
    days on market $70,000 Active 124 DOM
12. 2026-06-02
    days on market $70,000 Active 123 DOM
13. 2026-06-01
    days on market $70,000 Active 122 DOM
14. 2026-05-31
    days on market $70,000 Active 121 DOM
15. 2026-03-24
    status Active 813-char remark

    Show marketing remark (813 chars)

    Welcome to this well-maintained 2-bedroom, 1.5-bath manufactured home located in a desirable senior community in Apple Valley. This home offers a functional floor plan with a comfortable living area and the convenience of a half bath for guests. The kitchen provides ample cabinet space and opens to the dining area, making it ideal for everyday living. Both bedrooms are generously sized, with the primary bedroom offering direct access to the bathroom. Indoor laundry and thoughtful storage add to the home’s practicality. Situated in a quiet, age-restricted park, residents enjoy a peaceful environment while remaining close to shopping, dining, medical facilities, and local amenities. This is a great opportunity to own an affordable home in a well-established senior community. Park approval required.

16. 2026-03-19
    status Pending Sale 813-char remark

    Show marketing remark (813 chars)

    Welcome to this well-maintained 2-bedroom, 1.5-bath manufactured home located in a desirable senior community in Apple Valley. This home offers a functional floor plan with a comfortable living area and the convenience of a half bath for guests. The kitchen provides ample cabinet space and opens to the dining area, making it ideal for everyday living. Both bedrooms are generously sized, with the primary bedroom offering direct access to the bathroom. Indoor laundry and thoughtful storage add to the home’s practicality. Situated in a quiet, age-restricted park, residents enjoy a peaceful environment while remaining close to shopping, dining, medical facilities, and local amenities. This is a great opportunity to own an affordable home in a well-established senior community. Park approval required.

17. 2026-01-25
    listed $70,000 Active 813-char remark

    Show marketing remark (813 chars)

    Welcome to this well-maintained 2-bedroom, 1.5-bath manufactured home located in a desirable senior community in Apple Valley. This home offers a functional floor plan with a comfortable living area and the convenience of a half bath for guests. The kitchen provides ample cabinet space and opens to the dining area, making it ideal for everyday living. Both bedrooms are generously sized, with the primary bedroom offering direct access to the bathroom. Indoor laundry and thoughtful storage add to the home’s practicality. Situated in a quiet, age-restricted park, residents enjoy a peaceful environment while remaining close to shopping, dining, medical facilities, and local amenities. This is a great opportunity to own an affordable home in a well-established senior community. Park approval required.

18. 2023-04-07
    historical
19. 2023-03-06
    listed $71,000 Active
20. 2019-12-12
    soldstatus $54,000
21. 2019-08-18
    listed $54,000

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast CA · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $212 · $18/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $532 · $44/mo
• Expected delta: +$320/yr (+$27/mo · 151.5%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone D · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 6/10 Major
• 🌡 Heat 6/10 Major 1 d/yr ≥99°F today · 3 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 1/10 Low
• 🫁 Air quality 10/10 Extreme 25 unhealthy d/yr today · 30 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $20,322
• − Mortgage interest: −$3,921
• − Property taxes: −$212
• − Insurance: −$350
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,626
• − Management: −$1,626
• − Depreciation: −$2,036
• Taxable income: $10,552
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$2,532
• After-tax cash flow: $8,555/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Apple Valley Unified
• NCES district ID: 0600017
• Math proficiency: 25% ▬ 0.00%
• Reading proficiency: 40% ▬ 0.00%
• Median HH income: $49,264
• Composite: 30.91/100
• National rank: #11351
• State rank: #955 of 1400 in CA

Livability — Apple Valley

• Score: 61/100
• State rank: #532
• US rank: #17800

Category grades

Amenities F Commute B+ Cost of living F Crime D- Employment D+ Housing A+ Health & safety F User ratings D+

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Apple Valley, CA
• County: San Bernardino County · 2,030,291 people
• City population: 83,889
• Metro: Riverside-San Bernardino-Ontario, CA
• Population (ZIP): 42,709
• Household income: $66,568
• Rent vs Own: 28.5% rent · 71.5% own
• Severe rent burden: 1389.0

Population outlook (San Bernardino County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 2,300,329 people
• By 2030: 2,378,907 · +3.4%
• By 2040: 2,523,137 · +9.7%
• By 2050: 2,642,388 · +14.9%
• By 2075: 2,880,769 · +25.2%
• By 2100: 2,909,436 · +26.5%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Diverse neighborhood (Simpson 0.65)
• Race & ethnicity: White 44% Hispanic / Latino 38% Two or more races 19% Black 9% Asian 3%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 34%
• Common ancestry: Italian 1% Iranian 1% Slovak 1%
• Foreign-born: 11% · Canada, South Korea
• Languages at home: 75% English-only · Spanish 20% Tagalog/Filipino 1% Other Asian/Pacific 1%

Political lean MEDSL · San Bernardino

• 2024 margin: Toss-up / Even · D 47.5% · R 49.7% · Other 2.8%
• 2008→2024 swing: -8.5pp toward R · 2008: 6.3pp · 2024: -2.1pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+2.1 2020: D+10.7 2016: D+9.8 2012: D+5.4 2008: D+6.3

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -145.60%
• Current HPI: 359.2305
• Rent YoY: ▲ 4.30%
• Metro: Riverside-San Bernardino-Ontario, CA
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.21%
• F500 in state: 116

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in CA)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Technology	27	$1,492B
▸Financial Services	3	$174B
▸Retail	3	$44B
▸Insurance	3	$26B
▸Media / Entertainment	2	$115B
▸Pharmaceuticals / Biotech	2	$62B

Price history

+29.6% since first listed

7 events — show timeline

• 2026-03-24 Relisted — CRMLS
• 2026-03-19 Pending — CRMLS
• 2026-01-25 Listed $70,000 CRMLS
• 2023-04-07 Listing Removed — CRMLS
• 2023-03-06 Listed $71,000 CRMLS
• 2019-12-12 Sold (MLS) $54,000 CRMLS
• 2019-08-18 Listed $54,000 CRMLS

Property tax history

+3.2%/yr

Latest (2025): $212 · +1.7% YoY. Source: county tax records.