1815 State St · Saginaw, MI 48602

$55,000

2 bd · 1.0 ba · 816 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 29 Days on market

Built 1920 7,405 sqft lot Est $69k · 20% under

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Why this score? — see what drove the B+ grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +30.0/30.0
• ARV discount +15.0/15.0
• 1% rule +10.0/10.0
• DSCR +10.0/10.0
• Rent growth +3.5/5.0
• Livability +3.2/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Schools +2.0/10.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

This 2-bedroom, 1-bath home is a great opportunity for investors or first-time home buyers. Currently tenant-occupied with rental income of $700 per month. Major updates include a new roof in 2024 and hot water heater in 2025, giving peace of mind to the next owner. The furnace is approximately 8 years old. Whether you’re looking to add to your investment portfolio or purchase your first home, this property has plenty of potential and value to offer!

Key facts

• Hot water heater
• Furnace
• New roof

Tags

• NEW ROOF
• HOT WATER HEATER
• FURNACE

Property features AI

Finance

• HOA & community: Homeowners association present

Exterior

• Utilities: Public water; Public sewer
• Home design: Single-family residence; One level
• Construction: Vinyl siding
• Exterior features: Lot approximately 60 x 128.4 (0.17 acres)

Interior

• Bathrooms: 1 full bathroom
• Heating & cooling: Forced air heating; Natural gas heating; No cooling listed
• Interior features: 3 total rooms; Basement present

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 2-bed/1.0-bath single-family listed at $55k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $341 ($4k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($919 rent vs $55k).
• Recommended offer: $54k (1.5% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Cap rate 13.7% vs local median 8.3% in Saginaw — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 63/100 on livability (#521 in MI) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+, health & safety A+; Watch: schools F, crime F, amenities F.
• Saginaw School District (urban): math 20% / reading 29% proficiency, ranked #444 of 540 in MI (top 82%) — low school quality limits family demand, transient renter base, plan for 1-2y turnover; 76% free/reduced lunch — lower-income household profile, screen leases tightly.
• Market conditions: Rents rising (+4.0%/yr); 250 active listings in the ZIP; 154 units permitted in Saginaw County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $380 of loan paydown is wiped out by about $2k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Saginaw County population projected at -25% by 2050 — secular population decline; favor cash flow + early exit over multi-decade hold.
• At projected returns (-3.0% appreciation + 4.0% rent growth), your $15k cash investment doubles in ~5 years — after that, you're playing with house money.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 29 days — a 2% lower offer ($54k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 4 sale attempts since 12y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.
• Current owner paid $6k; list at $55k implies a 817% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.

Risks & watch-outs

• Watch-outs: built in 1920 — expect roof / HVAC / electrical / plumbing capex.

Recommended offer $54,175 (1.5% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. Built in 1920 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
2. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
3. Schools are F-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
4. Crime grade is F in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
5. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
6. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
7. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.67% ✓
• Cap rate: 13.74%
• Cash-on-cash: 26.59%
• DSCR: 2.18
• GRM: 5.0

CMA / ARV

• ARV (on-the-fly): $68,544
• Comps found: 12

Show comp detail 12 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
1815 W Genesee	0.08mi	2/1.0	818 (+0%)	1mo	$74,000	$90	95
2105 Mershon St	0.03mi	2/1.0	822 (+1%)	5mo	$120,000	$146	93
2312 Durand St	0.32mi	2/1.0	849 (+4%)	4mo	$24,750	$29	75
2200 State St	0.22mi	3/1.0 (+1)	756 (-7%)	10mo	$57,500	$76	64
2138 N Clinton St	0.13mi	3/1.0 (+1)	912 (+12%)	10mo	$77,000	$84	62
1523 W Genesee St	0.18mi	3/1.0 (+1)	936 (+15%)	3mo	$53,500	$57	60
2524 N Carolina St	0.53mi	3/1.0 (+1)	845 (+4%)	7mo	$78,000	$92	59
2529 N BOND St	0.56mi	2/1.0	763 (-6%)	6mo	$65,000	$85	58
2292 Bay St	0.59mi	2/1.0	866 (+6%)	7mo	$36,000	$42	57
920 Cronk Ave	0.53mi	2/1.0	714 (-12%)	4mo	$54,500	$76	51
2209 Cooper Ave	0.48mi	3/1.0 (+1)	936 (+15%)	7mo	$75,000	$80	42
2600 Deindorfer St	0.63mi	2/1.0	702 (-14%)	8mo	$72,000	$103	41

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 3.98% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 21.6%
• Equity multiple: 1.89×
• Total profit: $13,751
• Equity at exit: $8,201

10-year hold

• IRR: 30.3%
• Equity multiple: 3.85×
• Total profit: $43,856
• Equity at exit: $4,755

Cash invested: $15,400 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 62 Landlord-Friendly
• State Michigan: 62 Landlord-Friendly · EVEN
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

7-day pay-or-quit; mixed climate; Detroit/AA have some protections.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 48602

• Home prices YoY: -19.7%
• Rents YoY: 4.0%
• Active inventory: 250
• Price-to-rent: 5.0×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $919 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$288
• Tax from tax record: −$74 /mo · $884/yr
• Insurance: −$23
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$193
• Net cashflow: $341

Break-even live

Break-even rent $487

Max offer price $55,000

Occupancy floor 58%

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $13,750
• Closing costs: $1,650
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Listing history 23 events

1. 2026-06-19
   days on market $55,000 Active 29 DOM
2. 2026-06-18
   days on market $55,000 Active 28 DOM
3. 2026-06-17
   days on market $55,000 Active 27 DOM
4. 2026-06-16
   days on market $55,000 Active 26 DOM
5. 2026-06-15
   days on market $55,000 Active 25 DOM
6. 2026-06-14
   days on market $55,000 Active 23 DOM
7. 2026-06-12
   days on market $55,000 Active 22 DOM
8. 2026-06-09
   days on market $55,000 Active 19 DOM
9. 2026-06-08
   days on market $55,000 Active 18 DOM
10. 2026-06-07
    days on market $55,000 Active 17 DOM
11. 2026-06-05
    days on market $55,000 Active 14 DOM
12. 2026-06-03
    days on market $55,000 Active 13 DOM
13. 2026-06-02
    days on market $55,000 Active 12 DOM
14. 2026-06-01
    days on market $55,000 Active 11 DOM
15. 2026-05-31
    days on market $55,000 Active 10 DOM
16. 2026-05-30
    days on market $55,000 Active 9 DOM
17. 2026-05-21
    listed $55,000 Active 460-char remark

    Show marketing remark (460 chars)

    This 2-bedroom, 1-bath home is a great opportunity for investors or first-time home buyers. Currently tenant-occupied with rental income of $700 per month. Major updates include a new roof in 2024 and hot water heater in 2025, giving peace of mind to the next owner. The furnace is approximately 8 years old. Whether you’re looking to add to your investment portfolio or purchase your first home, this property has plenty of potential and value to offer!

18. 2026-05-21
    listed $55,000 Active

    Show marketing remark (460 chars)

    This 2-bedroom, 1-bath home is a great opportunity for investors or first-time home buyers. Currently tenant-occupied with rental income of $700 per month. Major updates include a new roof in 2024 and hot water heater in 2025, giving peace of mind to the next owner. The furnace is approximately 8 years old. Whether you’re looking to add to your investment portfolio or purchase your first home, this property has plenty of potential and value to offer!

19. 2014-07-15
    soldstatus $6,000 151-char remark

    Show marketing remark (151 chars)

    Cute bungalow, good investment property. 2 Bedroom, 1 full bath with full basement. Nice backyard, immediate occupancy. Call for your personal showing.

20. 2014-07-15
    soldstatus $6,000

    Show marketing remark (151 chars)

    Cute bungalow, good investment property. 2 Bedroom, 1 full bath with full basement. Nice backyard, immediate occupancy. Call for your personal showing.

21. 2014-07-09
    historical 151-char remark

    Show marketing remark (151 chars)

    Cute bungalow, good investment property. 2 Bedroom, 1 full bath with full basement. Nice backyard, immediate occupancy. Call for your personal showing.

22. 2014-06-04
    listed $18,900 151-char remark

    Show marketing remark (151 chars)

    Cute bungalow, good investment property. 2 Bedroom, 1 full bath with full basement. Nice backyard, immediate occupancy. Call for your personal showing.

23. 2014-06-04
    listed $18,900

    Show marketing remark (151 chars)

    Cute bungalow, good investment property. 2 Bedroom, 1 full bath with full basement. Nice backyard, immediate occupancy. Call for your personal showing.

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast MI · Partial reset (capped growth)

• Current annual tax: $884 · $74/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $884 · $74/mo
• Expected delta: $0/yr ($0/mo · 0.0%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 4/10 Moderate FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 20% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 1/10 Low
• 🌡 Heat 2/10 Low 7 d/yr ≥100°F today · 14 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 1/10 Low
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 1 unhealthy d/yr today · 2 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $11,031
• − Mortgage interest: −$3,081
• − Property taxes: −$884
• − Insurance: −$275
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$883
• − Management: −$883
• − Depreciation: −$1,600
• Taxable income: $3,426
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$822
• After-tax cash flow: $3,272/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Saginaw School District
• NCES district ID: 2630390
• Math proficiency: 20% ▼ -5.00%
• Reading proficiency: 29% ▼ -3.00%
• Median HH income: $28,940
• Composite: 19.6/100
• National rank: #8755
• State rank: #444 of 540 in MI

Livability — Saginaw

• Score: 63/100
• State rank: #521
• US rank: #15424

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime F Employment F Housing A+ Health & safety A+ User ratings F

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Saginaw, MI
• County: Saginaw County · 54,884 people
• City population: 54,884
• Metro: Saginaw, MI
• Population (ZIP): 27,127
• Household income: $46,984
• Rent vs Own: 35.8% rent · 64.2% own
• Severe rent burden: 1416.0

Population outlook (Saginaw County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 180,568 people
• By 2030: 172,302 · -4.6%
• By 2040: 153,919 · -14.8%
• By 2050: 135,519 · -24.9%
• By 2075: 97,199 · -46.2%
• By 2100: 65,037 · -64.0%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Diverse neighborhood (Simpson 0.64)
• Race & ethnicity: White 50% Black 27% Hispanic / Latino 17% Two or more races 12%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 14% Puerto Rican 1%
• Common ancestry: Romanian 4% Lithuanian 3% Italian 2%
• Foreign-born: 1% · Canada
• Languages at home: 96% English-only · Spanish 3%

Political lean MEDSL · Saginaw

• 2024 margin: Toss-up / Even · D 47.7% · R 51.0% · Other 1.4%
• 2008→2024 swing: -20.6pp toward R · 2008: 17.3pp · 2024: -3.3pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+3.3 2020: D+0.3 2016: R+1.1 2012: D+11.9 2008: D+17.3

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -39.15%
• Current HPI: 159.8807
• Rent YoY: ▲ 3.98%
• Metro: Saginaw, MI
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 1.37%
• F500 in state: 28

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in MI)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Automotive Parts	3	$48B
▸Automotive	2	$372B
▸Chemicals	1	$45B
▸Automotive Retail	1	$29B
▸Healthcare / Medical Devices	1	$23B
▸Automotive Technology	1	$20B

Price history

+191.0% since first listed

7 events — show timeline

• 2026-05-21 Listed $55,000 REALCOMP
• 2026-05-21 Listed $55,000 MiRealSource-MiMLS
• 2014-07-15 Sold (MLS) $6,000 REALCOMP
• 2014-07-15 Sold (MLS) $6,000 MiRealSource-MiMLS
• 2014-07-09 Listing Removed — MiRealSource-MiMLS
• 2014-06-04 Listed $18,900 REALCOMP
• 2014-06-04 Listed $18,900 MiRealSource-MiMLS

Property tax history

-1.4%/yr

Latest (2025): $884 · -16.3% YoY. Source: county tax records.