77707 Lumber Creek Blvd · Yulee, FL 32097

$360,000

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,543 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 10 Days on market

Built 2019 Est $298k · 21% over $56/mo HOA · 2% of rent

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Why this score? — see what drove the F grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Appreciation +10.0/10.0
• Cash flow +6.6/30.0
• Schools +6.0/10.0
• Livability +3.3/5.0
• Rent growth +3.2/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• 1% rule +1.5/10.0
• DSCR +0.9/10.0
• ARV discount +0.0/15.0

Listing remarks MLS

The beautiful Sunnyside floor plan by LGI Homes is located within the masterly planned community of Lumber Creek. This new one-story home features an open floor plan, 3 bedrooms and 2 full bathrooms complete with more $10,000 in upgrades including energy-efficient appliances, custom built cabinets, granite counters and an attached 2 car garage. This spacious home includes a master suite, complete with a full bath and walk-in closet, as well as a utility room, covered back patio and front yard landscaping, all just steps from beautiful amenities including a pool, walking trails and playground.

Key facts

• Community pool
• Upgraded kitchen
• Finished garage

Tags

• OVERSIZED FENCED YARD
• EXTENDED COVERED PATIO
• OUTDOOR STORAGE SHED
• UPGRADED KITCHEN
• FINISHED GARAGE
• COMMUNITY POOL

Property features AI

Finance

• Other: Community pool (not private)
• HOA & community: Community association with playground; Association fee of $336 semi-annually; Sidewalks in the community

Exterior

• Parking: Garage; 2-car garage
• Utilities: Public sewer; Electricity connected; Water connected; Asphalt road access
• Home design: Single-family residence; One level
• Construction: Frame construction; Shingle roof
• Exterior features: Fire pit; Awning-covered patio and rear porch; Porch; Patio; Shed(s); Vinyl fenced backyard

Interior

• Kitchen: Dishwasher; Electric range; Microwave; Refrigerator
• Bedrooms: 4 bedrooms
• Flooring: Carpet; Laminate
• Bathrooms: 2 full bathrooms
• Heating & cooling: Central heating; Central air conditioning
• Interior features: Breakfast bar; Breakfast nook; Ceiling fans; Open floor plan; Split bedroom layout

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath single-family listed at $360k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-590 ($-7k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $256k (29.0% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $232k (35.4% below list).
• Recommended offer: $232k (35.4% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Cap rate 4.3% vs local median 3.3% in Yulee — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 66/100 on livability (#605 in FL) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: housing A+, cost of living A-, crime B+; Watch: amenities F, commute F, health & safety F.
• Nassau (town): math 74% / reading 65% proficiency, ranked #4 of 73 in FL (top 6%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease.
• Market conditions: Rents rising (+2.9%/yr); 601 active listings in the ZIP; 8 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 26d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); solid renter incomes; 953 units permitted in Nassau County in 2024 (24 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• In year one you build about $38k of equity ($2k loan paydown + $36k appreciation (10.0% local appreciation)).
• Nassau County population projected at +17% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.
• By year 2, paydown + projected appreciation supports a ~$62k cash-out refi (75% LTV) — recoverable capital for the next deal without selling this one.

Negotiation context

• Only 10 days on market — expect competitive offers; lowballing is unlikely to land.
• 2 sale attempts since 7y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.
• Current owner paid $225k; list at $360k implies a 60% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: severe wind risk, 99% chance of damaging wind over 30y; severe wildfire risk; extreme-heat days projected 7→20/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $232,489 (35.4% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
3. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
4. Schools are B-rated — typically a magnet for longer-tenancy family renters. What's the average tenant stay here, and is there a school-zone premium baked into asking?
5. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
6. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
7. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
8. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.65% ✗
• Cap rate: 4.33%
• Cash-on-cash: -7.03%
• DSCR: 0.69
• GRM: 12.9

CMA / ARV

• ARV (on-the-fly): $297,799
• Comps found: 12

Show comp detail 12 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
77720 Lumber Creek Blvd	0.04mi	3/2.0	1,543 (0%)	3mo	$335,000	$217	96
77723 Lumber Creek Blvd	0.04mi	3/2.0	1,629 (+6%)	2mo	$287,000	$176	87
77314 Mosswood Dr	0.15mi	3/2.0	1,543 (0%)	11mo	$325,000	$211	84
77422 Lumber Creek Blvd	0.33mi	3/2.0	1,543 (0%)	2mo	$320,000	$207	83
77799 Lumber Creek Blvd	0.25mi	3/2.0	1,629 (+6%)	1mo	$298,000	$183	78
77814 Lumber Creek Blvd	0.29mi	3/2.0	1,629 (+6%)	2mo	$288,000	$177	76
77175 Sawmill Ct	0.14mi	3/2.0	1,686 (+9%)	7mo	$324,900	$193	72
77009 Birdseye Ct	0.14mi	3/2.0	1,629 (+6%)	16mo	$307,500	$189	71
77447 Lumber Creek Blvd	0.32mi	3/2.0	1,686 (+9%)	13mo	$320,000	$190	58
77338 Lumber Creek Blvd	0.42mi	3/2.0	1,383 (-10%)	12mo	$315,000	$228	53
85402 Trinity Cir	0.68mi	3/2.0	1,479 (-4%)	11mo	$210,000	$142	52
86774 Cartesian Pointe Dr	0.73mi	3/2.0	1,356 (-12%)	12mo	$310,000	$229	36

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

10.0% appreciation · 2.88% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 19.3%
• Equity multiple: 2.57×
• Total profit: $158,198
• Equity at exit: $324,317

10-year hold

• IRR: 17.8%
• Equity multiple: 5.91×
• Total profit: $494,852
• Equity at exit: $699,401

Cash invested: $100,800 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Florida: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+3
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day pay-or-quit; preempts local rent control; landlord-friendly statutes. Court speed varies by county.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 32097

• Home prices YoY: 19.5%
• Rents YoY: 2.9%
• Active inventory: 601
• Price-to-rent: 12.9×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $2,325 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,888
• Tax from tax record: −$333 /mo · $3,995/yr
• Insurance: −$150
• HOA: −$56
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$488
• Net cashflow: $-590

Break-even live

Break-even rent $3,072

Max offer price $255,754

Occupancy floor —

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $-386	-5% $-488	+0% $-590	+5% $-692	+10% $-794
Rent	-10% $-774	-5% $-682	+0% $-590	+5% $-498	+10% $-406
Rate	-1.0pp $-409	-0.5pp $-499	base $-590	+0.5pp $-683	+1.0pp $-778

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $90,000
• Closing costs: $10,800
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 8 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
77822 Lumber Creek Blvd Yulee, FL	3.0	2.0	1543	$2,200	$1.43	25d	1	0.28mi
78295 Saddle Rock Rd Yulee, FL	4.0	2.0	1846	$2,191	$1.19	25d	1	0.37mi
75530 Harvester St Yulee, FL	2.0	2.5	1168	$1,895	$1.62	6d	1	0.62mi
8701 Hillpointe Cir Yulee, FL	2.0	2.0	1170	$1,647	$1.41	9d	15	1.11mi
86624 Mainline Rd Yulee, FL	2.0	2.5	1168	$1,695	$1.45	25d	1	1.28mi
86215 Buggy Ct Yulee, FL	3.0	2.0	1675	$2,295	$1.37	22d	1	1.38mi
86229 Mainline Rd Yulee, FL	3.0	2.0	1219	$2,195	$1.80	25d	1	1.41mi
86467 Moonlit Walk Cir Yulee, FL	4.0	3.0	2010	$3,100	$1.54	25d	1	1.47mi

HOA detail

• Monthly dues: $56 · $672/yr
• Likely covers: landscapingpool

Listing history 8 events

1. 2026-06-21
   days on market $360,000 Active 10 DOM
2. 2026-06-18
   days on market $360,000 Active 7 DOM
3. 2026-06-17
   days on market $360,000 Active 6 DOM
4. 2026-06-16
   days on market $360,000 Active 5 DOM
5. 2026-06-15
   days on market $360,000 Active 4 DOM
6. 2026-06-13
   days on market $360,000 Active 2 DOM
7. 2026-06-13
   remarks 691-char remark
8. 2026-06-13
   listed $360,000 Active 1 DOM

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast FL · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $3,995 · $333/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $3,995 · $333/mo
• Expected delta: $0/yr ($0/mo · 0.0%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 9/10 Extreme
• 🌡 Heat 9/10 Extreme 7 d/yr ≥106°F today · 20 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 9/10 Extreme 99% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 5/10 Major 6 unhealthy d/yr today · 7 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $27,899
• − Mortgage interest: −$20,166
• − Property taxes: −$3,995
• − Insurance: −$1,800
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$2,232
• − Management: −$2,232
• − HOA: −$672
• − Depreciation: −$10,473
• Taxable loss: −$13,670
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$3,281
• After-tax cash flow: $-3,801/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Nassau
• NCES district ID: 1201350
• Math proficiency: 74% ▼ -2.00%
• Reading proficiency: 65% ▼ -2.00%
• Median HH income: $58,267
• Composite: 59.79/100
• National rank: #899
• State rank: #4 of 73 in FL

Livability — Yulee

• Score: 66/100
• State rank: #605
• US rank: #11615

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A- Crime B+ Employment B+ Housing A+ Health & safety F User ratings B+

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• County: Nassau County · 67,729 people
• City population: 26,700
• Metro: Jacksonville, FL
• Population (ZIP): 26,700
• Household income: $93,161
• Rent vs Own: 19.8% rent · 80.2% own
• Severe rent burden: 404.0

Population outlook (Nassau County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 88,419 people
• By 2030: 92,679 · +4.8%
• By 2040: 99,257 · +12.3%
• By 2050: 103,378 · +16.9%
• By 2075: 109,726 · +24.1%
• By 2100: 107,006 · +21.0%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (75%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 75% Two or more races 9% Black 9% Hispanic / Latino 8% Asian 1% Native American 1%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 2% Puerto Rican 2%
• Common ancestry: Lithuanian 4% Italian 3% Romanian 2%
• Foreign-born: 4% · Canada, Vietnam
• Languages at home: 93% English-only · Spanish 5% Vietnamese 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Nassau

• 2024 margin: Solid R (+46.9) · D 26.1% · R 73.1%
• 2008→2024 swing: -3.1pp toward R · 2008: -43.8pp · 2024: -46.9pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+46.9 2020: R+45.9 2016: R+50.2 2012: R+48.6 2008: R+43.8

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▲ 49.35%
• Current HPI: 301.9299
• Rent YoY: ▲ 2.88%
• Metro: Jacksonville, FL
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.28%
• F500 in state: 36

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in FL)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Industrial Technology	2	$29B
▸Insurance	2	$17B
▸Retail	1	$60B
▸Technology Distribution	1	$58B
▸Homebuilding	1	$35B
▸Technology Manufacturing	1	$35B

Price history

+60.1% since first listed

3 events — show timeline

• 2026-06-11 Listed $360,000 realMLS
• 2019-07-05 Sold (MLS) $224,900 realMLS
• 2019-04-10 Listed $224,900 realMLS

Property tax history

+38.5%/yr

Latest (2025): $3,995 · +3.6% YoY. Source: county tax records.