1890 SE El Portal Rd · Ventura, NM 88030

$158,000

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,496 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 75 Days on market

Built 1971 1.00 ac lot

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Why this score? — see what drove the D grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +15.8/30.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• DSCR +4.9/10.0
• 1% rule +3.1/10.0
• Livability +2.6/5.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Schools +2.1/10.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

If you've been craving space and simplicity this 3 bed 2 bath delivers both. Minutes from town on the east side of Deming with views to the Florida Mountains. Has a durable metal roof and matures trees. As well as a storage for your hobbies or workspace. Enjoy peaceful views, privacy, and room to make it your own. Schedule your showing today.

Key facts

• Storage for hobbies
• Privacy
• Metal roof

Tags

• METAL ROOF
• MATURE TREES
• STORAGE FOR HOBBIES
• PEACEFUL VIEWS
• PRIVACY

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath single-family listed at $158k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $73 ($871/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $128k (18.8% below list).
• Recommended offer: $128k (18.8% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 51/100 on livability (#271 in NM) — a working-class tenant base; expect higher turnover. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing B; Watch: health & safety C-, schools F, crime F.
• Deming Public Schools (town): math 18% / reading 27% proficiency, ranked #63 of 95 in NM (top 66%) — low school quality limits family demand, transient renter base, plan for 1-2y turnover; 97% free/reduced lunch — lower-income household profile, screen leases tightly.
• Market conditions: 375 active listings in the ZIP; 7 units permitted in Luna County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $1k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $5k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Luna County population projected at -15% by 2050 — secular population decline; favor cash flow + early exit over multi-decade hold.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 75 days — a 6% lower offer ($149k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 3 sale attempts since 10y ago; this cycle's ask has dropped $17k (10%) from the opening price — seller is motivated, your offer sets the floor, not the list.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: extreme-heat days projected 7→23/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $128,325 (18.8% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 75 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 19% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Built in 1971 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
3. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
4. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
5. Schools are F-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
6. Crime grade is F in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
7. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
8. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
9. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
10. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.81% ✗
• Cap rate: 6.84%
• Cash-on-cash: 1.97%
• DSCR: 1.09
• GRM: 10.3

CMA / ARV

No comps found within radius.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -13.2%
• Equity multiple: 0.52×
• Total profit: $-21,056
• Equity at exit: $23,558

10-year hold

• IRR: -4.4%
• Equity multiple: 0.71×
• Total profit: $-12,683
• Equity at exit: $13,661

Cash invested: $44,240 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 55 Moderately Landlord-Leaning
• State New Mexico: 55 Moderately Landlord-Leaning · D+3
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day notice but with cure rights; relocation assistance in some cities.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 88030

• Home prices YoY: -32.9%
• Active inventory: 375
• Price-to-rent: 10.3×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,283 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$829
• Tax from tax record: −$47 /mo · $562/yr
• Insurance: −$66
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$269
• Net cashflow: $73

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,191

Max offer price $158,000

Occupancy floor 89%

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $39,500
• Closing costs: $4,740
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Listing history 33 events

1. 2026-06-19
   days on market $158,000 Active 75 DOM
2. 2026-06-18
   days on market $158,000 Active 74 DOM
3. 2026-06-17
   days on market $158,000 Active 73 DOM
4. 2026-06-16
   days on market $158,000 Active 72 DOM
5. 2026-06-15
   days on market $158,000 Active 71 DOM
6. 2026-06-14
   days on market $158,000 Active 69 DOM
7. 2026-06-13
   days on market $158,000 Active 68 DOM
8. 2026-06-10
   days on market $158,000 Active 66 DOM
9. 2026-06-09
   days on market $158,000 Active 65 DOM
10. 2026-06-08
    days on market $158,000 Active 64 DOM
11. 2026-06-07
    days on market $158,000 Active 63 DOM
12. 2026-06-05
    days on market $158,000 Active 60 DOM
13. 2026-06-03
    days on market $158,000 Active 59 DOM
14. 2026-06-02
    days on market $158,000 Active 58 DOM
15. 2026-06-01
    days on market $158,000 Active 57 DOM
16. 2026-05-31
    days on market $158,000 Active 56 DOM
17. 2026-05-30
    days on market $158,000 Active 55 DOM
18. 2026-05-08
    status Active 344-char remark

    Show marketing remark (344 chars)

    If you've been craving space and simplicity this 3 bed 2 bath delivers both. Minutes from town on the east side of Deming with views to the Florida Mountains. Has a durable metal roof and matures trees. As well as a storage for your hobbies or workspace. Enjoy peaceful views, privacy, and room to make it your own. Schedule your showing today.

19. 2026-05-08
    status Pending 344-char remark

    Show marketing remark (344 chars)

    If you've been craving space and simplicity this 3 bed 2 bath delivers both. Minutes from town on the east side of Deming with views to the Florida Mountains. Has a durable metal roof and matures trees. As well as a storage for your hobbies or workspace. Enjoy peaceful views, privacy, and room to make it your own. Schedule your showing today.

20. 2026-04-15
    price $158,000 344-char remark

    Show marketing remark (344 chars)

    If you've been craving space and simplicity this 3 bed 2 bath delivers both. Minutes from town on the east side of Deming with views to the Florida Mountains. Has a durable metal roof and matures trees. As well as a storage for your hobbies or workspace. Enjoy peaceful views, privacy, and room to make it your own. Schedule your showing today.

21. 2026-04-06
    listed $175,000 Active 344-char remark

    Show marketing remark (344 chars)

    If you've been craving space and simplicity this 3 bed 2 bath delivers both. Minutes from town on the east side of Deming with views to the Florida Mountains. Has a durable metal roof and matures trees. As well as a storage for your hobbies or workspace. Enjoy peaceful views, privacy, and room to make it your own. Schedule your showing today.

22. 2025-12-02
    price $168,000
23. 2025-07-21
    price $172,900
24. 2025-05-29
    price $179,900
25. 2025-04-30
    price $184,500
26. 2025-03-22
    price $189,900
27. 2025-03-03
    price $193,000
28. 2024-12-02
    price $209,000
29. 2024-09-09
    price $213,000
30. 2024-07-29
    price $216,500
31. 2024-07-29
    price $216,000
32. 2017-12-18
    soldstatus
33. 2016-08-15
    listed $60,000

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast NM · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $562 · $47/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $1,264 · $105/mo
• Expected delta: +$702/yr (+$59/mo · 125.0%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 4/10 Moderate
• 🌡 Heat 6/10 Major 7 d/yr ≥100°F today · 23 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 1/10 Low
• 🫁 Air quality 1/10 Low 0 unhealthy d/yr today · 0 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $15,399
• − Mortgage interest: −$8,850
• − Property taxes: −$562
• − Insurance: −$790
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,232
• − Management: −$1,232
• − Depreciation: −$4,596
• Taxable loss: −$1,864
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$447
• After-tax cash flow: $1,318/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Deming Public Schools
• NCES district ID: 3500690
• Math proficiency: 18% —
• Reading proficiency: 27% —
• Median HH income: $28,092
• Composite: 21.02/100
• National rank: #13708
• State rank: #63 of 95 in NM

Livability — Ventura

• Score: 51/100
• State rank: #271
• US rank: #25401

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime F Employment F Housing B Health & safety C- User ratings A

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Ventura, NM
• Population (ZIP): 24,270

Population outlook (Luna County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 22,859 people
• By 2030: 22,105 · -3.3%
• By 2040: 20,738 · -9.3%
• By 2050: 19,336 · -15.4%
• By 2075: 15,439 · -32.5%
• By 2100: 9,313 · -59.3%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly Hispanic (66%)
• Race & ethnicity: Hispanic / Latino 66% Two or more races 32% White 30% Black 2% Native American 1%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 63%
• Common ancestry: Slovak 1% Lithuanian 1% Italian 1%
• Foreign-born: 16% · Canada
• Languages at home: 49% English-only · Spanish 50%

Political lean MEDSL · Luna

• 2024 margin: R (+18.9) · D 39.4% · R 58.3% · Other 2.3%
• 2008→2024 swing: -24.2pp toward R · 2008: 5.3pp · 2024: -18.9pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+18.9 2020: R+10.4 2016: R+3.9 2012: R+1.1 2008: D+5.3

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -56.37%
• Current HPI: 114.8626
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: —
• F500 in state: 0

Price history

+163.3% since first listed

16 events — show timeline

• 2026-05-08 Relisted — NMMLS
• 2026-05-08 Pending — NMMLS
• 2026-04-15 Price Changed $158,000 NMMLS
• 2026-04-06 Listed $175,000 NMMLS
• 2025-12-02 Price Changed $168,000 NMMLS
• 2025-07-21 Price Changed $172,900 NMMLS
• 2025-05-29 Price Changed $179,900 NMMLS
• 2025-04-30 Price Changed $184,500 NMMLS
• 2025-03-22 Price Changed $189,900 NMMLS
• 2025-03-03 Price Changed $193,000 NMMLS
• 2024-12-02 Price Changed $209,000 NMMLS
• 2024-09-09 Price Changed $213,000 NMMLS
• 2024-07-29 Price Changed $216,500 NMMLS
• 2024-07-29 Price Changed $216,000 NMMLS
• 2017-12-18 Sold (MLS) — NMMLS
• 2016-08-15 Listed $60,000 NMMLS

Property tax history

+3.2%/yr

Latest (2025): $562 · +2.5% YoY. Source: county tax records.