Chappell Plan · Kyle, TX 78640

$199,749

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,200 sqft · SingleFamily · 121 Days on market

Excellent condition

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Why this score? — see what drove the D- grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +10.9/30.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• Condition / age +5.0/5.0
• Schools +3.8/10.0
• Livability +3.8/5.0
• 1% rule +3.2/10.0
• DSCR +3.2/10.0
• Rent growth +2.4/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks

This single-level home opens into a shared living space between the kitchen, dining area and family room for easy entertaining. An owner's suite enjoys a private location in a rear corner of the home, complemented by an en-suite bathroom and walk-in closet. There are two secondary bedrooms at the front of the home, which are comfortable spaces for household members and overnight guests.

Key facts

• Walk-in closet
• Secondary bedrooms
• En-suite bathroom

Tags

• OWNER'S SUITE
• EN-SUITE BATHROOM
• WALK-IN CLOSET
• SECONDARY BEDROOMS

🏗️ New construction. The $199,749 list price is a builder figure, so every metric below is computed on the value from comparable previous sales — $222,255.

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath single-family listed at $200k. Condition is rated excellent.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-97 ($-1k/yr) — negative.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $182k (8.8% below list).
• Recommended offer: $176k (12.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Cap rate 5.8% vs local median 3.3% in Kyle — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 75/100 on livability (#138 in TX, #3,993 nationally) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: housing A+, health & safety A+, employment A; Watch: amenities F, commute F.
• Hays CISD (rural): math 35% / reading 41% proficiency, ranked #390 of 826 in TX (top 47%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Zoned schools: Blanco Vista El (math 33% / reading 42%, grade F, #1,744 of 4,322 statewide, top 41%, 731 students, 58% FRL); Laura B Wallace Middle (math 31% / reading 34%, grade F, #947 of 1,662 statewide, top 58%, 789 students, 53% FRL); Lehman H S (math 20% / reading 32%, grade F, #1,234 of 1,632 statewide, top 76%, 2,120 students, 59% FRL).
• Market conditions: Rents soft (-0.3%/yr); 2701 active listings in the ZIP; 40 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals lingering (median 88d on market — plan ~5-8 weeks vacancy on turnover, expect pricing pressure); 62% of comp listings sitting > 30 days — soft ceiling on asking rent; solid renter incomes; 5,270 units permitted in Hays County in 2024 (1,464 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $2k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $7k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Hays County population projected at +93% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 121 days — a 12% lower offer ($176k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.

Recommended offer $175,779 (12.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. It's been on market 121 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 12% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
3. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
4. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
5. Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
6. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
7. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
8. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
9. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.82% ✗
• Cap rate: 5.77%
• Cash-on-cash: -1.88%
• DSCR: 0.92
• GRM: 10.2

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $222,255
• List price: $199,749
• Delta: -10.13%
• Verdict: UNDERPRICED
• Comps: 20 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 12 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
162 Ketch Way	0.36mi	3/2.0	1,200 (0%)	0mo	$178,999	$149	83
446 Sormonne Loop	0.36mi	3/2.0	1,230 (+2%)	4mo	$196,999	$160	76
456 Sormonne Loop	0.38mi	3/2.0	1,230 (+2%)	5mo	$194,999	$159	74
178 Meuse Ln	0.40mi	3/2.0	1,230 (+2%)	6mo	$198,490	$161	72
162 Meuse Ln	0.41mi	3/2.0	1,230 (+2%)	6mo	$195,490	$159	72
142 Meuse Ln	0.41mi	3/2.0	1,230 (+2%)	6mo	$194,490	$158	72
110 Meuse Ln	0.41mi	3/2.0	1,230 (+2%)	9mo	$209,490	$170	69
586 Sormonne Loop	0.45mi	3/2.0	1,230 (+2%)	9mo	$198,490	$161	68
137 Seven Seas Dr	0.34mi	3/2.0	1,380 (+15%)	0mo	$197,999	$143	59
185 Seven Seas Dr	0.34mi	3/2.0	1,380 (+15%)	0mo	$183,999	$133	59
135 Jura Pass	0.36mi	3/2.0	1,380 (+15%)	1mo	$180,999	$131	57
111 Jura Pass	0.34mi	3/2.0	1,380 (+15%)	3mo	$203,999	$148	57

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 0.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -22.8%
• Equity multiple: 0.24×
• Total profit: $-47,525
• Equity at exit: $33,139

10-year hold

• IRR: -27.6%
• Equity multiple: -0.12×
• Total profit: $-69,880
• Equity at exit: $19,217

Cash invested: $62,231 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Texas: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+5
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day notice; statewide preemption; one of the fastest eviction climates; Travis County (Austin) slightly slower.

Methodology + full state rankings →

Balanced market Market conditions within 1.0 mi — comparable homes for sale

Active competition Active MLS

• For sale now: 23 active · 29 under contract
• Months of supply: 6.0 mo (17%/mo absorbed)
• Median asking: $210,249 ($149/sqft)
• Median days on market: 35 d
• This list price: 9% of active listings are priced below it
• ARV vs active asking: +23.9% above current asking $/sqft

Closed sales set the value; these active listings set current market conditions and a practical price ceiling.

ZIP-level market 78640

• Home prices YoY: -33.8%
• Rents YoY: -0.3%
• Active inventory: 2701
• Price-to-rent: 9.1×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,821 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,166
• Tax est. 1.5%: −$278 /mo · $3,334/yr
• Insurance: −$93
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$382
• Net cashflow: $-97

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,944

Max offer price $208,167

Occupancy floor —

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $56	-5% $-21	+0% $-97	+5% $-174	+10% $-251
Rent	-10% $-241	-5% $-169	+0% $-97	+5% $-25	+10% $47
Rate	-1.0pp $15	-0.5pp $-41	base $-97	+0.5pp $-155	+1.0pp $-214

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $55,564
• Closing costs: $6,668
• Club membership (one-time): —
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 40 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
126 Avre Loop Kyle, TX	3.0	2.0	1230	$1,700	$1.38	184d	1	0.15mi
250 Alamito Ave Kyle, TX	3.0	2.0	1450	$1,850	$1.28	6d	1	0.16mi
572 Avre Loop Kyle, TX	3.0	2.5	1434	$1,695	$1.18	55d	1	0.21mi
572 Avre Loop Kyle, TX	3.0	2.5	1427	$1,695	$1.19	29d	1	0.21mi
572 Avre Loop Kyle, TX	3.0	3.0	1427	$1,695	$1.19	23d	1	0.21mi
127 Jura Pass Kyle, TX	4.0	2.0	1500	$1,800	$1.20	10d	1	0.32mi
446 Sormonne Loop Kyle, TX	3.0	2.0	1230	$1,699	$1.38	87d	1	0.33mi
143 Jura Pass Kyle, TX	4.0	2.0	1500	$1,800	$1.20	7d	1	0.34mi
143 Jura Pass Kyle, TX	4.0	2.0	1500	$1,800	$1.20	13d	1	0.34mi
159 Jura Pass Kyle, TX	4.0	2.0	1500	$1,799	$1.20	7d	1	0.35mi
149 Red Sun Dr Kyle, TX	3.0	2.0	1421	$1,850	$1.30	151d	1	0.36mi
145 Seven Seas Dr Kyle, TX	4.0	2.0	1500	$1,800	$1.20	3d	1	0.37mi
134 Meuse Ln Kyle, TX	3.0	2.5	1427	$1,625	$1.14	10d	1	0.38mi
190 Sormonne Loop Kyle, TX	3.0	2.0	1450	$1,650	$1.14	164d	1	0.39mi
240 Sambre St Kyle, TX	3.0	2.0	1200	$1,625	$1.35	134d	1	0.40mi
224 Blooming Trl Kyle, TX	4.0	2.0	1494	$1,995	$1.34	55d	1	0.40mi
160 Night Sky Dr Kyle, TX	3.0	2.0	1410	$1,800	$1.28	145d	1	0.59mi
164 Cinnabar Ln #4 Kyle, TX	3.0	2.5	1479	$1,699	$1.15	55d	1	1.13mi
261 New Bridge Dr Kyle, TX	4.0	2.0	1368	$1,849	$1.35	184d	1	1.16mi
240 New Country Rd Kyle, TX	3.0	2.0	1106	$1,650	$1.49	152d	1	1.19mi
240 New Country Rd Kyle, TX	3.0	2.0	1106	$1,650	$1.49	143d	1	1.19mi
187 Rummel Dr Kyle, TX	3.0	2.0	1240	$1,795	$1.45	184d	1	1.23mi
160 Rummel Dr Kyle, TX	3.0	2.0	1368	$1,799	$1.32	87d	1	1.26mi
185 Voss Kyle, TX	3.0	2.0	1371	$1,800	$1.31	152d	1	1.28mi
232 Voss Kyle, TX	3.0	2.0	1472	$1,895	$1.29	127d	1	1.33mi
232 Voss Kyle, TX	3.0	2.0	1467	$1,895	$1.29	145d	1	1.33mi
510 New Bridge Dr Kyle, TX	4.0	2.0	1359	$1,695	$1.25	184d	1	1.34mi
112 Ames Cv Kyle, TX	3.0	2.0	1292	$1,625	$1.26	3d	1	1.34mi
125 Voyager Cv Kyle, TX	3.0	2.0	1476	$1,850	$1.25	10d	1	1.36mi
125 Voyager Cv Kyle, TX	3.0	2.0	1476	$1,800	$1.22	184d	1	1.36mi
273 Tower Dr Kyle, TX	3.0	2.0	1252	$1,785	$1.43	109d	1	1.41mi
375 Musgrav Kyle, TX	3.0	2.0	1338	$1,650	$1.23	37d	1	1.42mi
237 Goddard Kyle, TX	3.0	2.0	1476	$1,900	$1.29	128d	1	1.43mi
376 Musgrav Kyle, TX	3.0	2.0	1476	$1,988	$1.35	157d	1	1.45mi
376 Musgrav Kyle, TX	3.0	2.0	1476	$1,890	$1.28	139d	1	1.45mi
376 Musgrav Kyle, TX	3.0	2.0	1476	$1,746	$1.18	74d	1	1.45mi
205 Karrie Dr Kyle, TX	3.0	2.0	1252	$1,695	$1.35	10d	1	1.47mi
521 New Country Rd Kyle, TX	3.0	2.0	1359	$1,700	$1.25	10d	1	1.48mi
196 Goddard Kyle, TX	3.0	2.0	1125	$1,595	$1.42	29d	1	1.48mi
196 Goddard Kyle, TX	3.0	2.0	1125	$1,595	$1.42	10d	1	1.48mi

Property features AI

Finance

• Other: Address: 314 Avre Loop, Kyle TX 78640Listing status: ActiveVirtual tour available
• Financial info: List price $204,999

Exterior

• Home design: Single-family plan model (Chappell)
• Exterior features: Living area approximately 1,200

Interior

• Bedrooms: 3 bedrooms
• Bathrooms: 2 full bathrooms
• Interior features: Plan is new construction (Chappell plan)

Listing history 50 events

1. 2026-11-08
   days on market $199,749 Active 121 DOM
2. 2026-11-07
   days on market $199,749 Active 120 DOM
3. 2026-11-06
   days on market $199,749 Active 119 DOM
4. 2026-11-05
   days on market $199,749 Active 118 DOM
5. 2026-11-04
   days on market $199,749 Active 117 DOM
6. 2026-11-02
   price $199,749 Active 115 DOM
7. 2026-11-02
   days on market $199,499 Active 115 DOM
8. 2026-11-01
   days on market $199,499 Active 114 DOM
9. 2026-10-31
   days on market $199,499 Active 113 DOM
10. 2026-10-30
    days on market $199,499 Active 112 DOM
11. 2026-10-29
    days on market $199,499 Active 111 DOM
12. 2026-10-28
    days on market $199,499 Active 110 DOM
13. 2026-10-27
    pricedays on market $199,499 Active 109 DOM
14. 2026-10-26
    days on market $198,999 Active 108 DOM
15. 2026-10-25
    days on market $198,999 Active 107 DOM
16. 2026-10-24
    days on market $198,999 Active 106 DOM
17. 2026-10-23
    days on market $198,999 Active 105 DOM
18. 2026-10-22
    days on market $198,999 Active 104 DOM
19. 2026-10-21
    days on market $198,999 Active 103 DOM
20. 2026-10-20
    days on market $198,999 Active 102 DOM
21. 2026-10-19
    days on market $198,999 Active 101 DOM
22. 2026-10-18
    days on market $198,999 Active 100 DOM
23. 2026-10-17
    days on market $198,999 Active 99 DOM
24. 2026-10-16
    days on market $198,999 Active 98 DOM
25. 2026-10-15
    days on market $198,999 Active 97 DOM
26. 2026-10-14
    days on market $198,999 Active 96 DOM
27. 2026-10-13
    days on market $198,999 Active 95 DOM
28. 2026-10-12
    days on market $198,999 Active 94 DOM
29. 2026-10-11
    days on market $198,999 Active 93 DOM
30. 2026-10-10
    days on market $198,999 Active 92 DOM
31. 2026-10-09
    days on market $198,999 Active 91 DOM
32. 2026-10-08
    days on market $198,999 Active 90 DOM
33. 2026-10-07
    days on market $198,999 Active 89 DOM
34. 2026-10-06
    days on market $198,999 Active 88 DOM
35. 2026-10-05
    days on market $198,999 Active 87 DOM
36. 2026-10-04
    days on market $198,999 Active 86 DOM
37. 2026-10-04
    days on market $198,999 Active 85 DOM
38. 2026-10-02
    days on market $198,999 Active 84 DOM
39. 2026-10-01
    days on market $198,999 Active 83 DOM
40. 2026-09-30
    days on market $198,999 Active 82 DOM
41. 2026-09-29
    price $198,999 Active 81 DOM
42. 2026-09-29
    days on market $197,999 Active 81 DOM
43. 2026-09-28
    days on market $197,999 Active 80 DOM
44. 2026-09-27
    pricedays on market $197,999 Active 79 DOM
45. 2026-09-25
    days on market $192,999 Active 77 DOM
46. 2026-09-24
    days on market $192,999 Active 76 DOM
47. 2026-09-23
    pricedays on market $192,999 Active 75 DOM
48. 2026-09-22
    days on market $197,999 Active 74 DOM
49. 2026-09-21
    days on market $197,999 Active 73 DOM
50. 2026-09-20
    days on market $197,999 Active 72 DOM

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $21,852
• − Mortgage interest: −$12,450
• − Property taxes: −$3,334
• − Insurance: −$1,111
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,748
• − Management: −$1,748
• − Depreciation: −$6,466
• Taxable loss: −$5,005
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$1,201
• After-tax cash flow: $33/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Condition & rehab AI · 1 photo

Excellent 100/100 None rehab

This home is in excellent condition with no visible repairs or maintenance needed. It is move-in ready and would benefit from landscaping and painting to further enhance its value.

Value-add opportunities

• Both Landscaping improvements — Enhances curb appeal and adds value ↑
• Both Painting exterior and interior — Fresh paint improves appearance and value ↑
• Both Landscaping and curb appeal — Enhances curb appeal and adds value ↑

F Composite school gradezoned avg 38/100

Zoned Schools

Elementary Blanco Vista El F TX #1,744/4,322 Nat'l #21,283/41,679 Middle Laura B Wallace Middle F TX #947/1,662 Nat'l #8,188/14,009 High Jack C Hays H S F TX #697/1,632 Nat'l #7,320/17,239

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Hays CISD
• NCES district ID: 4800010
• Math proficiency: 35% ▼ -15.00%
• Reading proficiency: 41% ▼ -5.00%
• Median HH income: $70,570
• Composite: 34.78/100
• National rank: #5118
• State rank: #390 of 826 in TX

B Composite livability gradescore 75/100

Livability — Kyle

• Score: 75/100
• State rank: #138
• US rank: #3993

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A Crime A- Employment A Housing A+ Health & safety A+ User ratings A

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• County: Hays County · 286,948 people
• City population: 77,531
• Metro: Austin-Round Rock-Georgetown, TX
• Population (ZIP): 77,531
• Household income: $90,075
• Rent vs Own: 29.0% rent · 71.0% own
• Severe rent burden: 11% of renters

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Population outlook (Hays County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 286,948 people
• By 2030: 336,923 · +17.4%
• By 2040: 441,894 · +54.0%
• By 2050: 553,462 · +92.9%
• By 2075: 838,261 · +192.1%
• By 2100: 1,063,658 · +270.7%

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Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Diverse neighborhood (Simpson 0.56)
• Race & ethnicity: Hispanic / Latino 55% White 36% Two or more races 29% Black 5% Native American 1%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 47% Puerto Rican 1%
• Languages at home: 63% English-only · Spanish 35%

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Political lean MEDSL · Hays

• 2024 margin: Lean D (+5.7) · D 52.1% · R 46.5% · Other 1.4%
• 2008→2024 swing: +7.7pp toward D · 2008: -2.0pp · 2024: 5.7pp
• All cycles: 2024: D+5.7 2020: D+10.8 2016: R+0.9 2012: R+10.4 2008: R+2.0

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -92.64%
• Current HPI: 181.7969
• Rent YoY: ▼ -0.34%
• Metro: Austin-Round Rock-Georgetown, TX
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.95%
• F500 in state: 110

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Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in TX)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Energy	16	$1,198B
▸Technology	5	$198B
▸Engineering / Construction	4	$72B
▸Energy Services	3	$60B
▸Utilities	3	$41B
▸Healthcare	2	$330B

Property features AI

Finance

• Other: Address: 314 Avre Loop, Kyle TX 78640Listing status: ActiveVirtual tour available
• Financial info: List price $204,999

Exterior

• Home design: Single-family plan model (Chappell)
• Exterior features: Living area approximately 1,200

Interior

• Bedrooms: 3 bedrooms
• Bathrooms: 2 full bathrooms
• Interior features: Plan is new construction (Chappell plan)