1631 Leisure Dr Unit M36 · Bayshore Gardens, FL 34207

$75,000

1 bd · 1.0 ba · 576 sqft · Condo public records · 134 Days on market

Built 1968 $292/mo HOA · 25% of rent

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Why this score? — see what drove the C grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +20.9/30.0
• 1% rule +10.0/10.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• DSCR +6.7/10.0
• Schools +4.4/10.0
• Livability +4.1/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Rent growth +1.1/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks

Welcome to this freshly renovated one-bedroom, one-bath condo located in the well-established 55+ Bayshore Gardens community of Bradenton, Florida. This move-in-ready unit features brand-new flooring, fresh interior paint, new blinds, and an updated kitchen with new appliances, refreshed cabinetry with new hardware, a new kitchen sink, and new countertops. The bathroom has been tastefully refreshed with a new vanity and toilet, and major system upgrades include a new air conditioner and new water heater for peace of mind. The building offers elevator access for added convenience, and the unit includes one assigned parking space with additional guest parking available. Bayshore Gardens resid

Key facts

• New flooring
• New appliances
• Updated kitchen

Tags

• FRESHLY RENOVATED
• NEW FLOORING
• UPDATED KITCHEN
• NEW APPLIANCES
• REFRESHED CABINETRY
• NEW KITCHEN SINK

Property features AI

Finance

• Financial info: Total monthly fees $292; Total annual fees $3,504; Lease restrictions apply
• HOA & community: Condo fee $292/month; Association amenities include cable TV, clubhouse, elevator(s), laundry, pool, shuffleboard court, and storage; Association fee covers cable TV, common area taxes, pool, escrow reserves, maintenance (structure and grounds), management, private road, recreational facilities, and trash; Association approval required; Senior community; Buyer approval required; Community mailbox; Pool and clubhouse on-site

Exterior

• Parking: Assigned parking
• Utilities: Public water; Public sewer; Cable connected; Electricity connected
• Home design: Condominium; Residential property; One level (unit on third floor of a 3-story building); South-facing
• Construction: Block and stucco construction; Shingle roof; Slab foundation; Built as part of a multi-story building (3 stories total)
• Exterior features: Covered porch or patio; Screened porch or patio; Sliding doors; Storage

Interior

• Kitchen: Microwave; Range; Refrigerator
• Bedrooms: 1 bedroom (third floor unit)
• Bathrooms: 1 full bathroom
• Heating & cooling: Central heating; Central air conditioning
• Interior features: Open floorplan; Living room and dining room combined; Thermostat; Building has an elevator
• Laundry & utility: Laundry in common area; Electric water heater

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 1-bed/1.0-bath condo listed at $75k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $105 ($1k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($1k rent vs $75k).
• Recommended offer: $66k (12.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Cap rate 8.0% vs local median 4.7% in Bayshore Gardens — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 82/100 on livability (#72 in FL, #1,180 nationally) — a professional / high-income tenant draw. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+, health & safety A+; Watch: crime C-, commute C-, schools F.
• Manatee (suburban): math 54% / reading 50% proficiency, ranked #26 of 73 in FL (top 36%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease.
• Market conditions: Rents falling (-5.5%/yr); 361 active listings in the ZIP; 27 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 25d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); 7,472 units permitted in Manatee County in 2024 (1,782 in 5+ unit buildings).
• This rent runs 31% of the median local income ($45k/yr) — at the standard rent-burdened threshold; future hikes will face affordability resistance.

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $519 of loan paydown is wiped out by about $2k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Manatee County population projected at +43% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 134 days — a 12% lower offer ($66k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• Current owner paid $59k; 27% above their basis — modest negotiation headroom, anchor on the comps not their cost.

Risks & watch-outs

• Watch-outs: HOA is 25% of rent.
• Climate carrying-cost: severe wind risk, 99% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→31/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $66,000 (12.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 134 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 12% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Built in 1968 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
3. What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
4. Any open or pending special assessments — roof, HVAC, plumbing, elevator, façade? What's the per-unit balance and payoff schedule, and is the seller paying it off at close or rolling it to the buyer?
5. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
6. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
7. Schools are F-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
8. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
9. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
10. How much new apartment / multifamily construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply (>2% of stock underway) typically softens rents 12–24 months out; light construction supports rent growth.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.55% ✓
• Cap rate: 7.97%
• Cash-on-cash: 6.00%
• DSCR: 1.27
• GRM: 5.4

CMA / ARV

No comps found within radius.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 0.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -11.9%
• Equity multiple: 0.59×
• Total profit: $-8,679
• Equity at exit: $11,183

10-year hold

• IRR: -11.3%
• Equity multiple: 0.46×
• Total profit: $-11,324
• Equity at exit: $6,485

Cash invested: $21,000 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Florida: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+3
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day pay-or-quit; preempts local rent control; landlord-friendly statutes. Court speed varies by county.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 34207

• Rents YoY: -5.5%
• Active inventory: 361
• Price-to-rent: 5.4×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,165 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$393
• Tax from tax record: −$99 /mo · $1,183/yr
• Insurance: −$31
• HOA: −$292
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$245
• Net cashflow: $105

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,032

Max offer price $75,000

Occupancy floor 86%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $147	-5% $126	+0% $105	+5% $84	+10% $63
Rent	-10% $13	-5% $59	+0% $105	+5% $151	+10% $197
Rate	-1.0pp $143	-0.5pp $124	base $105	+0.5pp $86	+1.0pp $66

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $18,750
• Closing costs: $2,250
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 27 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
1566 Pleasant Rd Unit J24 Bradenton, FL	2.0	1.0	733	$1,150	$1.57	24d	1	0.05mi
5908 17th St W Unit C36 Bradenton, FL	1.0	1.0	576	$950	$1.65	17d	1	0.07mi
5888 17th St W Unit C23 Bradenton, FL	1.0	1.0	576	$1,100	$1.91	24d	1	0.09mi
1807 Restful Dr Unit N4 Bradenton, FL	2.0	1.0	733	$1,150	$1.57	4d	1	0.11mi
1825 Flamingo Blvd Unit O26 Bradenton, FL	1.0	1.0	576	$1,000	$1.74	24d	1	0.12mi
1839 Sunny Dr Unit E36 Bradenton, FL	1.0	1.0	576	$1,350	$2.34	24d	1	0.12mi
1859 Restful Dr Unit L26 Bradenton, FL	1.0	1.0	576	$1,150	$2.00	24d	1	0.16mi
1875 Sunny Dr Unit G32 Bradenton, FL	1.0	1.0	576	$1,100	$1.91	24d	1	0.17mi
5858 Welcome Rd Unit J23 Bradenton, FL	2.0	1.0	744	$1,150	$1.55	4d	1	0.20mi
1874 Sunny Dr Unit F32 Bradenton, FL	2.0	1.0	744	$950	$1.28	24d	1	0.20mi
5955 Palm Ln Unit A33 Bradenton, FL	2.0	1.0	744	$1,150	$1.55	15d	1	0.24mi
2028 Canal Dr Unit M26 Bradenton, FL	1.0	1.0	576	$1,050	$1.82	11d	1	0.29mi
2547 60th Ave W Unit L-36 Bradenton, FL	1.0	1.0	576	$1,100	$1.91	17d	1	0.45mi
5531 16th St W Unit 5537 Bradenton, FL	2.0	1.0	750	$1,650	$2.20	4d	1	0.47mi
5310 26th St W Bradenton, FL	1.0–2.0	1.0	789	$1,250	$1.58	12d	5	0.97mi
5310 26th St W Bradenton, FL	1.0–2.0	1.0	789	$1,250	$1.58	4d	4	0.97mi
5310 26th St W Bradenton, FL	1.0–2.0	1.0	789	$1,250	$1.58	20d	5	0.97mi
5400 26th St W Bradenton, FL	1.0–2.0	1.0–2.0	902	$1,358	$1.50	24d	1	0.99mi
6050 34th St W Bradenton, FL	1.0–2.0	1.0	734	$1,185	$1.61	2d	19	1.16mi
2803 52nd Avenue Dr W Unit 2803 Bradenton, FL	2.0	1.0	750	$1,599	$2.13	24d	1	1.17mi
915 50th Avenue Plz W Bradenton, FL	2.0	1.0	700	$1,200	$1.71	24d	1	1.21mi
205 52nd Avenue Dr W Bradenton, FL	1.0	1.0	528	$1,200	$2.27	24d	1	1.23mi
5001 22nd St W Unit B Bradenton, FL	2.0	1.0	729	$1,700	$2.33	17d	1	1.25mi
6916 Marlin Ln Bradenton, FL	2.0	1.0	430	$1,250	$2.91	24d	1	1.29mi
110 52nd Avenue Ter E Bradenton, FL	2.0	1.5	684	$1,450	$2.12	24d	1	1.29mi
707 50th Ave W Bradenton, FL	2.0	1.0	730	$1,150	$1.58	24d	1	1.33mi
2835 50th Ave W Bradenton, FL	1.0–2.0	1.0–2.0	850	$1,269	$1.49	4d	16	1.44mi

HOA detail condo

• Monthly dues: $292 · $3,504/yr
• Likely covers: waterparking
• Assessments: None detected in remarks — confirm with the listing agent.

Listing history 18 events

1. 2026-06-18
   days on market $75,000 Active 134 DOM
2. 2026-06-17
   days on market $75,000 Active 133 DOM
3. 2026-06-16
   days on market $75,000 Active 132 DOM
4. 2026-06-15
   days on market $75,000 Active 131 DOM
5. 2026-06-13
   days on market $75,000 Active 129 DOM
6. 2026-06-13
   days on market $75,000 Active 128 DOM
7. 2026-06-10
   days on market $75,000 Active 126 DOM
8. 2026-06-09
   days on market $75,000 Active 125 DOM
9. 2026-06-08
   days on market $75,000 Active 124 DOM
10. 2026-06-08
    days on market $75,000 Active 123 DOM
11. 2026-06-03
    days on market $75,000 Active 119 DOM
12. 2026-06-02
    days on market $75,000 Active 118 DOM
13. 2026-06-01
    days on market $75,000 Active 117 DOM
14. 2026-05-31
    days on market $75,000 Active 116 DOM
15. 2026-02-04
    listed $85,000 Active
16. 2006-05-04
    soldstatus $59,000
17. 1998-07-13
    soldstatus $21,000
18. 1993-11-30
    soldstatus $17,000

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast FL · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $1,183 · $99/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $1,183 · $99/mo
• Expected delta: $0/yr ($0/mo · 0.0%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 4/10 Moderate FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 20% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 1/10 Low
• 🌡 Heat 10/10 Extreme 7 d/yr ≥106°F today · 31 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 10/10 Extreme 99% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 1 unhealthy d/yr today · 2 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $13,977
• − Mortgage interest: −$4,201
• − Property taxes: −$1,183
• − Insurance: −$375
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,118
• − Management: −$1,118
• − HOA: −$3,504
• − Depreciation: −$2,182
• Taxable income: $296
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$71
• After-tax cash flow: $1,189/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Manatee
• NCES district ID: 1201230
• Math proficiency: 54% ▼ -6.00%
• Reading proficiency: 50% ▼ -2.00%
• Median HH income: $49,607
• Composite: 44.43/100
• National rank: #2806
• State rank: #26 of 73 in FL

Livability — Bayshore Gardens

• Score: 82/100
• State rank: #72
• US rank: #1180

Category grades

Amenities B- Commute C- Cost of living A+ Crime C- Employment F Housing A+ Health & safety A+ User ratings A+

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Bayshore Gardens, FL
• County: Manatee County · 416,364 people
• City population: 33,840
• Metro: North Port-Sarasota-Bradenton, FL
• Population (ZIP): 34,081
• Household income: $45,010
• Rent vs Own: 38.8% rent · 61.2% own
• Severe rent burden: 1474.0

Population outlook (Manatee County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 447,342 people
• By 2030: 488,911 · +9.3%
• By 2040: 567,934 · +27.0%
• By 2050: 637,995 · +42.6%
• By 2075: 781,970 · +74.8%
• By 2100: 848,272 · +89.6%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Diverse neighborhood (Simpson 0.57)
• Race & ethnicity: White 58% Hispanic / Latino 29% Two or more races 13% Black 7%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 12% Puerto Rican 4% Cuban 3% Dominican 1%
• Common ancestry: Lithuanian 3% Romanian 2% Slovak 2%
• Foreign-born: 16% · Canada, Jamaica
• Languages at home: 74% English-only · Spanish 22% Other Indo-European 1% French/Haitian/Cajun 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Manatee

• 2024 margin: Strong R (+23.5) · D 37.9% · R 61.4%
• 2008→2024 swing: -16.5pp toward R · 2008: -7.0pp · 2024: -23.5pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+23.5 2020: R+16.1 2016: R+17.1 2012: R+12.5 2008: R+7.0

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -305.32%
• Current HPI: 369.9899
• Rent YoY: ▼ -5.50%
• Metro: North Port-Sarasota-Bradenton, FL
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.28%
• F500 in state: 36

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in FL)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Industrial Technology	2	$29B
▸Insurance	2	$17B
▸Retail	1	$60B
▸Technology Distribution	1	$58B
▸Homebuilding	1	$35B
▸Technology Manufacturing	1	$35B

Price history

+400.0% since first listed

4 events — show timeline

• 2026-02-04 Listed $85,000 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2006-05-04 Sold (Public Records) $59,000 Public Records
• 1998-07-13 Sold (Public Records) $21,000 Public Records
• 1993-11-30 Sold (Public Records) $17,000 Public Records

Property tax history

+8.3%/yr

Latest (2025): $1,183 · -1.7% YoY. Source: county tax records.