7535 Christina Ln · Bayonet Point, FL 34668

$239,000

2 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,128 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 285 Days on market

Built 1975 5,796 sqft lot Est $215k · 11% over

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Why this score? — see what drove the F grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +8.0/30.0
• Schools +4.3/10.0
• Livability +3.5/5.0
• Rent growth +2.8/5.0
• ARV discount +2.6/15.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• 1% rule +2.0/10.0
• DSCR +2.0/10.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks

Under contract-accepting backup offers. NEW Beautiful Kitchen with quartz countertop and backsplash!!! Come see Florida paradise! Located in Gulf Highlands and ready for new owners! No HOA or Flood zone, this 4 bedroom has been well maintained with a newer roof 2016, Flat roof 2025, Newer Appliances too!. All new interior paint throughout, the home features spacious bedrooms with ample closet space, large living room, laminate flooring in laundry room and 4th bedroom! NEW Water heater! The backyard is private with plenty of space for relaxing and entertaining. Conveniently located in a quiet neighborhood near shopping, restaurants, and the gulf beaches. Easy commute to Tampa and Clearwat

Key facts

• Newer ac
• Newer kitchen
• Newer roof

Tags

• NEWER ROOF
• NEWER AC
• NEWER KITCHEN
• PRIVATE BACKYARD
• QUIET NEIGHBORHOOD

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 2-bed/2.0-bath single-family listed at $239k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-246 ($-3k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $195k (18.2% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $167k (29.9% below list).
• Recommended offer: $167k (29.9% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 69/100 on livability (#485 in FL) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+, health & safety A+; Watch: crime D+, amenities D+, commute F.
• Pasco (suburban): math 50% / reading 52% proficiency, ranked #32 of 73 in FL (top 44%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease.
• Zoned schools: Gulf Highlands Elementary School (math 29% / reading 32%, grade F, #1,862 of 2,144 statewide, top 88%, 714 students, 89% FRL); Bayonet Point Middle School (math 38% / reading 35%, grade F, #405 of 571 statewide, top 72%, 737 students, 84% FRL); Fivay High School (math 20% / reading 28%, grade F, #529 of 667 statewide, top 80%, 1,610 students, 78% FRL) — zoned schools average 84% FRL vs 48% district-wide (35 pts higher); higher-poverty schools than district average — tighter screening recommended.
• Zoned-school proficiency averages 30% at this address vs 51% district-wide (-21 pts) — the specific schools serving this property underperform the Pasco average; the district grade overstates school quality for this exact location.
• Market conditions: Rents rising (+1.3%/yr); 582 active listings in the ZIP; 40 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 22d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); 6,765 units permitted in Pasco County in 2024 (1,250 in 5+ unit buildings).
• This rent runs 42% of the median local income ($47k/yr) — at the standard rent-burdened threshold; future hikes will face affordability resistance.

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $2k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $7k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Pasco County population projected at +29% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 285 days — a 12% lower offer ($210k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 4 sale attempts; this cycle's ask has dropped $36k (13%) from the opening price — seller is motivated, your offer sets the floor, not the list.
• Current owner paid $49k; list at $239k implies a 389% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: severe wind risk, 99% chance of damaging wind over 30y; major wildfire risk; extreme-heat days projected 7→26/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $167,457 (29.9% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. It's been on market 285 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 30% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
3. Built in 1975 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
4. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
5. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
6. Schools are F-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
7. Crime grade is D in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
8. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
9. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
10. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
11. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.70% ✗
• Cap rate: 5.06%
• Cash-on-cash: -4.42%
• DSCR: 0.80
• GRM: 11.9

CMA / ARV

• ARV (on-the-fly): $215,448
• Comps found: 12

Show comp detail 12 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
7704 Christina Ln	0.13mi	2/2.0	1,128 (0%)	2mo	$260,000	$230	92
11341 Winwood Pl	0.69mi	2/2.0	1,107 (-2%)	1mo	$189,000	$171	64
7410 Gulf Highlands Dr	0.30mi	2/2.0	1,275 (+13%)	2mo	$239,000	$187	63
7522 Topay Ln	0.39mi	3/1.5 (+1)	1,201 (+6%)	2mo	$215,000	$179	62
7436 Gulf Highlands Dr	0.27mi	3/2.0 (+1)	1,259 (+12%)	3mo	$255,000	$203	60
12410 Partridge Hill Row	0.57mi	2/2.0	1,050 (-7%)	3mo	$235,000	$224	60
7233 Seashore Dr	0.35mi	2/2.0	1,297 (+15%)	2mo	$239,000	$184	57
7325 Neva Ln	0.41mi	2/2.0	1,286 (+14%)	2mo	$246,000	$191	56
11230 Rhonda Ave	0.67mi	2/2.0	1,046 (-7%)	1mo	$130,000	$124	56
7604 Hawthorn Dr	0.52mi	3/2.0 (+1)	1,254 (+11%)	3mo	$325,000	$259	50
11525 Forest Run Ct	0.73mi	2/2.0	1,274 (+13%)	2mo	$225,000	$177	42
7100 Ashwood Dr	0.58mi	3/1.0 (+1)	960 (-15%)	2mo	$189,900	$198	37

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 1.28% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -25.6%
• Equity multiple: 0.14×
• Total profit: $-57,288
• Equity at exit: $35,636

10-year hold

• IRR: -28.0%
• Equity multiple: -0.22×
• Total profit: $-81,479
• Equity at exit: $20,664

Cash invested: $66,920 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Florida: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+3
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day pay-or-quit; preempts local rent control; landlord-friendly statutes. Court speed varies by county.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 34668

• Home prices YoY: -17.4%
• Rents YoY: 1.3%
• Active inventory: 582
• Price-to-rent: 11.9×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,675 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,253
• Tax from tax record: −$216 /mo · $2,595/yr
• Insurance: −$100
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$352
• Net cashflow: $-246

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,986

Max offer price $195,497

Occupancy floor —

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $-111	-5% $-179	+0% $-246	+5% $-314	+10% $-382
Rent	-10% $-379	-5% $-312	+0% $-246	+5% $-180	+10% $-114
Rate	-1.0pp $-126	-0.5pp $-185	base $-246	+0.5pp $-308	+1.0pp $-371

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $59,750
• Closing costs: $7,170
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 40 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
12027 Hoosier Ct #203 Hudson, FL	2.0	2.0	1103	$1,550	$1.41	26d	1	0.22mi
12041 Hoosier Ct #204 Hudson, FL	2.0	2.0	1103	$1,495	$1.36	19d	1	0.26mi
12041 Hoosier Ct #204 Hudson, FL	2.0	2.0	1103	$1,495	$1.36	26d	1	0.26mi
7539 Gulf Highlands Dr Port Richey, FL	2.0	1.5	936	$1,550	$1.66	6d	1	0.27mi
7608 Sue Ellen Dr Port Richey, FL	3.0	2.0	1310	$2,400	$1.83	26d	1	0.36mi
7715 Sue Ellen Dr Port Richey, FL	2.0	2.0	1080	$1,495	$1.38	5d	1	0.38mi
7924 Halsey Dr Port Richey, FL	3.0	2.0	1272	$1,800	$1.42	23d	1	0.42mi
7924 Halsey Dr Port Richey, FL	3.0	2.0	1272	$1,800	$1.42	6d	1	0.42mi
11610 Meadow Dr Port Richey, FL	2.0	2.0	1128	$1,570	$1.39	14d	1	0.44mi
7530 Judith Cres Port Richey, FL	2.0	2.0	1446	$2,200	$1.52	26d	1	0.45mi
7530 Judith Cres Port Richey, FL	2.0	2.0	1446	$1,695	$1.17	22d	1	0.45mi
11611 Constance Dr Port Richey, FL	3.0	1.0	984	$1,540	$1.57	26d	1	0.46mi
11611 Constance Dr Port Richey, FL	3.0	1.0	984	$1,540	$1.57	13d	1	0.46mi
7616 Danube Dr Hudson, FL	2.0	2.0	1125	$1,350	$1.20	26d	1	0.47mi
7804 Topay Ln Port Richey, FL	3.0	2.0	1125	$1,795	$1.60	1d	1	0.47mi
11630 Paige Dr Port Richey, FL	3.0	1.0	1152	$1,680	$1.46	14d	1	0.49mi
7602 Danube Dr Unit 7602 Hudson, FL	2.0	2.0	1125	$1,600	$1.42	26d	1	0.50mi
7520 Hawthorn Dr Unit NA Port Richey, FL	2.0	2.0	1303	$1,900	$1.46	26d	1	0.53mi
7520 Hawthorn Dr Port Richey, FL	2.0	2.0	1303	$1,800	$1.38	25d	1	0.53mi
7531 Greybirch Ter Port Richey, FL	3.0	2.0	1400	$2,000	$1.43	26d	1	0.55mi
12200 Hudson Ridge Dr Port Richey, FL	2.0–3.0	2.0	1107	$1,468	$1.33	4d	10	0.61mi
11241 Yewtree Ave Port Richey, FL	3.0	2.0	1306	$1,950	$1.49	25d	1	0.64mi
7433 Greystone Dr #7433 Hudson, FL	2.0	2.0	1029	$1,300	$1.26	19d	1	0.73mi
7540 Venice Dr Port Richey, FL	3.0	2.0	1394	$1,775	$1.27	6d	1	0.73mi
7724 Tyson Dr Port Richey, FL	2.0	2.0	1200	$1,550	$1.29	1d	1	0.79mi
7705 Ilex Dr Port Richey, FL	3.0	2.0	1349	$2,000	$1.48	26d	1	0.80mi
7213 Seward Dr Port Richey, FL	2.0	1.0	700	$1,500	$2.14	26d	1	0.80mi
8161 Braddock Cir #1 Port Richey, FL	2.0	2.0	1000	$1,595	$1.59	19d	1	0.82mi
11138 Yellowwood Ln Unit NA Port Richey, FL	3.0	1.0	1000	$1,800	$1.80	26d	1	0.83mi
11103 Harding Dr Unit 2 Port Richey, FL	2.0	1.0	760	$1,450	$1.91	21d	1	0.83mi
12702 Social Dr Hudson, FL	2.0	1.0	1032	$1,500	$1.45	6d	1	0.84mi
11031 Hassle Ave Port Richey, FL	3.0	1.0	1006	$1,595	$1.59	26d	1	0.93mi
8304 Mill Creek Ln Hudson, FL	2.0	2.0	1000	$1,650	$1.65	26d	1	0.95mi
12809 College Hill Dr Hudson, FL	3.0	2.0	1114	$1,780	$1.60	6d	1	0.95mi
6731 Sandra Dr Port Richey, FL	2.0	1.0	816	$1,575	$1.93	26d	1	0.98mi
8312 Mill Creek Ln Hudson, FL	2.0	2.0	1152	$1,600	$1.39	26d	1	0.99mi
8312 Mill Creek Ln Hudson, FL	2.0	2.0	1152	$1,600	$1.39	1d	1	0.99mi
11430 Rohrman Rd Port Richey, FL	1.0	1.0	700	$1,000	$1.43	6d	1	1.00mi
10905 Kingsbridge Rd Port Richey, FL	3.0	2.0	1176	$1,566	$1.33	6d	1	1.00mi
7300 Country Club Dr Hudson, FL	2.0	1.0	926	$1,400	$1.51	4d	1	1.01mi

Listing history 16 events

1. 2026-04-11
   status Pending
2. 2026-04-02
   price $239,000
3. 2026-03-20
   status Active
4. 2026-02-28
   status Pending
5. 2026-02-21
   status Active
6. 2026-02-19
   status Pending
7. 2025-12-01
   price $240,000
8. 2025-11-24
   price $243,000
9. 2025-10-18
   status Active
10. 2025-09-24
    status Pending
11. 2025-09-10
    price $244,000
12. 2025-07-24
    price $245,000
13. 2025-06-20
    price $255,000
14. 2025-05-31
    price $265,000
15. 2025-05-15
    listed $275,000 Active
16. 2001-05-17
    soldstatus $48,900

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast FL · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $2,595 · $216/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $2,595 · $216/mo
• Expected delta: $0/yr ($0/mo · 0.0%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 6/10 Major
• 🌡 Heat 10/10 Extreme 7 d/yr ≥114°F today · 26 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 10/10 Extreme 99% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 1 unhealthy d/yr today · 3 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $20,095
• − Mortgage interest: −$13,388
• − Property taxes: −$2,595
• − Insurance: −$1,195
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,608
• − Management: −$1,608
• − Depreciation: −$6,953
• Taxable loss: −$7,251
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$1,740
• After-tax cash flow: $-1,215/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Pasco
• NCES district ID: 1201530
• Math proficiency: 50% ▼ -10.00%
• Reading proficiency: 52% ▼ -5.00%
• Median HH income: $45,039
• Composite: 43.14/100
• National rank: #3074
• State rank: #32 of 73 in FL

Livability — Bayonet Point

• Score: 69/100
• State rank: #485
• US rank: #8934

Category grades

Amenities D+ Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime D+ Employment F Housing A+ Health & safety A+ User ratings D

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Bayonet Point, FL
• County: Pasco County · 524,098 people
• Metro: Tampa-St. Petersburg-Clearwater, FL
• Population (ZIP): 49,442
• Household income: $47,401
• Rent vs Own: 37.2% rent · 62.8% own
• Severe rent burden: 2699.0

Population outlook (Pasco County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 570,045 people
• By 2030: 605,844 · +6.3%
• By 2040: 674,806 · +18.4%
• By 2050: 736,022 · +29.1%
• By 2075: 862,900 · +51.4%
• By 2100: 906,364 · +59.0%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (70%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 70% Hispanic / Latino 23% Two or more races 14% Black 4%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 3% Puerto Rican 10% Cuban 5% Dominican 1%
• Common ancestry: Romanian 3% Lithuanian 3% Slovak 2%
• Foreign-born: 11% · Canada, Jamaica
• Languages at home: 82% English-only · Spanish 14% Other Indo-European 1% French/Haitian/Cajun 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Pasco

• 2024 margin: Strong R (+25.2) · D 36.9% · R 62.1% · Other 1.0%
• 2008→2024 swing: -21.6pp toward R · 2008: -3.6pp · 2024: -25.2pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+25.2 2020: R+20.1 2016: R+21.6 2012: R+6.7 2008: R+3.6

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -75.64%
• Current HPI: 359.7163
• Rent YoY: ▲ 1.28%
• Metro: Tampa-St. Petersburg-Clearwater, FL
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.28%
• F500 in state: 36

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in FL)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Industrial Technology	2	$29B
▸Insurance	2	$17B
▸Retail	1	$60B
▸Technology Distribution	1	$58B
▸Homebuilding	1	$35B
▸Technology Manufacturing	1	$35B

Price history

+388.8% since first listed

16 events — show timeline

• 2026-04-11 Pending — Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2026-04-02 Price Changed $239,000 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2026-03-20 Relisted — Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2026-02-28 Pending — Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2026-02-21 Relisted — Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2026-02-19 Pending — Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2025-12-01 Price Changed $240,000 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2025-11-24 Price Changed $243,000 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2025-10-18 Relisted — Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2025-09-24 Pending — Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2025-09-10 Price Changed $244,000 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2025-07-24 Price Changed $245,000 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2025-06-20 Price Changed $255,000 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2025-05-31 Price Changed $265,000 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2025-05-15 Listed $275,000 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2001-05-17 Sold (Public Records) $48,900 Public Records

Property tax history

+9.9%/yr

Latest (2025): $2,595 · +3.3% YoY. Source: county tax records.