11 Heather Dr · North Middleton, PA 17013

$115,900

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,560 sqft · Manufactured public records · 71 Days on market

Built 1986 $74/sqft · 8% below area Est $126k · 8% under

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Why this score? — see what drove the B grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +30.0/30.0
• ARV discount +10.9/15.0
• 1% rule +10.0/10.0
• DSCR +10.0/10.0
• Schools +3.8/10.0
• Rent growth +3.1/5.0
• Livability +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

This spacious double-wide home in Northview Manor Park offers 4 bedrooms and 3 full bathrooms, providing plenty of room for comfortable living. Featuring an open floor plan, the main living areas flow seamlessly, making it perfect for both everyday living and entertaining. The home also includes a nicely sized deck, ideal for relaxing or enjoying outdoor gatherings. Don’t miss your opportunity to own this well-laid-out home in a convenient location!

Key facts

• 2 parking spots
• Built 1986
• Listed 71 days

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath manufactured listed at $116k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $832 ($10k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($2k rent vs $116k).
• Recommended offer: $109k (6.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.

Location & tenants

• Location reads: area grade B — affects rentability + tenant quality, not the cash-flow math above.
• Carlisle Area SD (urban): math 33% / reading 55% proficiency, ranked #277 of 539 in PA (top 51%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Market conditions: Rents rising (+2.5%/yr); 308 active listings in the ZIP; 3 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 23d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); 1,052 units permitted in Cumberland County in 2024 (310 in 5+ unit buildings).
• This rent runs 33% of the median local income ($71k/yr) — at the standard rent-burdened threshold; future hikes will face affordability resistance.

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $801 of loan paydown is wiped out by about $3k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Cumberland County population projected at +17% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.
• At projected returns (-3.0% appreciation + 2.5% rent growth), your $32k cash investment doubles in ~4 years — after that, you're playing with house money.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 71 days — a 6% lower offer ($109k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 2 sale attempts since 7y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.
• Current owner paid $37k; list at $116k implies a 213% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: extreme-heat days projected 7→15/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $108,946 (6.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 71 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 6% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
3. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
4. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
5. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
6. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.69% ✓
• Cap rate: 14.90%
• Cash-on-cash: 30.75%
• DSCR: 2.37
• GRM: 4.9

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $125,519
• List price: $115,900
• Delta: -7.66%
• Verdict: FAIR
• Comps: 20 within 1.0 mi

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 2.54% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 25.0%
• Equity multiple: 2.02×
• Total profit: $33,253
• Equity at exit: $17,281

10-year hold

• IRR: 32.5%
• Equity multiple: 3.88×
• Total profit: $93,388
• Equity at exit: $10,021

Cash invested: $32,452 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 62 Landlord-Friendly
• State Pennsylvania: 62 Landlord-Friendly · EVEN
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

10-day notice; Philadelphia has eviction-court diversion + some protections; otherwise moderate.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 17013

• Rents YoY: 2.5%
• Active inventory: 308
• Price-to-rent: 4.9×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,959 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$608
• Tax from tax record: −$60 /mo · $719/yr
• Insurance: −$48
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$411
• Net cashflow: $832

Break-even live

Break-even rent $906

Max offer price $115,900

Occupancy floor 53%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $897	-5% $864	+0% $832	+5% $799	+10% $766
Rent	-10% $677	-5% $754	+0% $832	+5% $909	+10% $986
Rate	-1.0pp $890	-0.5pp $861	base $832	+0.5pp $801	+1.0pp $771

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $28,975
• Closing costs: $3,477
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 3 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
10 Heather Dr Carlisle, PA	4.0	2.5	1625	$2,200	$1.35	22d	1	0.02mi
130 Imperial Ct Carlisle, PA	3.0	2.0	1137	$1,650	$1.45	45d	1	0.13mi
1838 Mary Ln Carlisle, PA	3.0	1.5	1523	$800	$0.53	15d	1	1.06mi

Listing history 18 events

1. 2026-06-18
   days on market $115,900 Active 71 DOM
2. 2026-06-17
   days on market $115,900 Active 70 DOM
3. 2026-06-16
   days on market $115,900 Active 69 DOM
4. 2026-06-15
   days on market $115,900 Active 68 DOM
5. 2026-06-14
   days on market $115,900 Active 66 DOM
6. 2026-06-10
   days on market $115,900 Active 63 DOM
7. 2026-06-09
   days on market $115,900 Active 62 DOM
8. 2026-06-08
   days on market $115,900 Active 61 DOM
9. 2026-06-07
   days on market $115,900 Active 60 DOM
10. 2026-06-03
    days on market $115,900 Active 56 DOM
11. 2026-06-02
    days on market $115,900 Active 55 DOM
12. 2026-06-01
    days on market $115,900 Active 54 DOM
13. 2026-05-31
    days on market $115,900 Active 53 DOM
14. 2026-05-31
    days on market $115,900 Active 52 DOM
15. 2026-04-09
    listed $115,900 Active 459-char remark

    Show marketing remark (459 chars)

    This spacious double-wide home in Northview Manor Park offers 4 bedrooms and 3 full bathrooms, providing plenty of room for comfortable living. Featuring an open floor plan, the main living areas flow seamlessly, making it perfect for both everyday living and entertaining. The home also includes a nicely sized deck, ideal for relaxing or enjoying outdoor gatherings. Don’t miss your opportunity to own this well-laid-out home in a convenient location!

16. 2020-01-10
    soldstatus $37,000 Closed 381-char remark

    Show marketing remark (381 chars)

    Welcome to 11 Heather Drive in Carlisle. This 4 bedroom, 3 full bathroom is waiting for YOU! Walk into and instantly notice the open concept from the living room, dining space, and kitchen. 2 of the 4 bedrooms have full baths. There is a hall bath for the other two bedrooms. Some of the updates include new flooring, new light fixtures and fresh paint. Check them both out today!!

17. 2019-11-18
    status Pending 381-char remark

    Show marketing remark (381 chars)

    Welcome to 11 Heather Drive in Carlisle. This 4 bedroom, 3 full bathroom is waiting for YOU! Walk into and instantly notice the open concept from the living room, dining space, and kitchen. 2 of the 4 bedrooms have full baths. There is a hall bath for the other two bedrooms. Some of the updates include new flooring, new light fixtures and fresh paint. Check them both out today!!

18. 2019-11-04
    listed $34,900 Active 381-char remark

    Show marketing remark (381 chars)

    Welcome to 11 Heather Drive in Carlisle. This 4 bedroom, 3 full bathroom is waiting for YOU! Walk into and instantly notice the open concept from the living room, dining space, and kitchen. 2 of the 4 bedrooms have full baths. There is a hall bath for the other two bedrooms. Some of the updates include new flooring, new light fixtures and fresh paint. Check them both out today!!

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast PA · Partial reset (capped growth)

• Current annual tax: $719 · $60/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $1,275 · $106/mo
• Expected delta: +$556/yr (+$46/mo · 77.3%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 1/10 Low
• 🌡 Heat 5/10 Major 7 d/yr ≥101°F today · 15 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 2/10 Low 3% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 1 unhealthy d/yr today · 3 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $23,507
• − Mortgage interest: −$6,492
• − Property taxes: −$719
• − Insurance: −$580
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,881
• − Management: −$1,881
• − Depreciation: −$3,372
• Taxable income: $8,583
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$2,060
• After-tax cash flow: $7,918/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Carlisle Area SD
• NCES district ID: 4205010
• Math proficiency: 33% ▼ -14.00%
• Reading proficiency: 55% ▼ -10.00%
• Median HH income: $55,334
• Composite: 38.23/100
• National rank: #4247
• State rank: #277 of 539 in PA

Livability — North Middleton

No livability data for this city. (Only ~50 U.S. cities are tracked.)

Census & demographics

• Census place: Schlusser, PA
• County: Cumberland County · 257,673 people
• Metro: Harrisburg-Carlisle, PA
• Population (ZIP): 38,513
• Household income: $71,042
• Rent vs Own: 38.3% rent · 61.7% own
• Severe rent burden: 1444.0

Population outlook (Cumberland County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 267,950 people
• By 2030: 278,105 · +3.8%
• By 2040: 296,552 · +10.7%
• By 2050: 312,937 · +16.8%
• By 2075: 349,233 · +30.3%
• By 2100: 361,875 · +35.1%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (79%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 79% Black 8% Hispanic / Latino 7% Two or more races 6% Asian 3%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Puerto Rican 3% Dominican 1%
• Common ancestry: Iranian 3% Romanian 3% Lithuanian 2%
• Foreign-born: 7% · Canada, Vietnam
• Languages at home: 91% English-only · Spanish 3% Russian/Polish/Slavic 1% Arabic 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Cumberland

• 2024 margin: Lean R (+9.4) · D 44.6% · R 54.1% · Other 1.3%
• 2008→2024 swing: +4.2pp toward D · 2008: -13.6pp · 2024: -9.4pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+9.4 2020: R+10.6 2016: R+18.6 2012: R+18.5 2008: R+13.6

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -140.48%
• Current HPI: 247.337
• Rent YoY: ▲ 2.54%
• Metro: Harrisburg-Carlisle, PA
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 1.68%
• F500 in state: 34

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in PA)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Healthcare	2	$309B
▸Insurance	2	$27B
▸Telecommunications / Media	1	$124B
▸Industrial Distribution	1	$22B
▸Financial Services	1	$20B
▸Chemicals / Materials	1	$18B

Price history

+232.1% since first listed

4 events — show timeline

• 2026-04-09 Listed $115,900 BRIGHT MLS
• 2020-01-10 Sold (MLS) $37,000 BRIGHT MLS
• 2019-11-18 Pending — BRIGHT MLS
• 2019-11-04 Listed $34,900 BRIGHT MLS

Property tax history

+2.7%/yr

Latest (2026): $719 · +3.1% YoY. Source: county tax records.