6362 Spider Lily Way · Elfers, FL 34653

$365,100

4 bd · 3.0 ba · 2,584 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 116 Days on market

Built 2021 7,107 sqft lot Est $481k · 24% under $33/mo HOA · 1% of rent ↓ 9% since listing

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Why this score? — see what drove the D+ grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• ARV discount +15.0/15.0
• Cash flow +12.7/30.0
• 1% rule +4.5/10.0
• Schools +4.3/10.0
• Livability +3.9/5.0
• DSCR +3.8/10.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Rent growth +1.8/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks

Under contract-accepting backup offers. Short Sale. Get ready to fall in love with this spacious and stylish 4-bedroom, 2.5-bath home! Built in 2021, this two-story beauty offers 2,584 square feet of living space and the perfect setup for everyday life and weekend fun. Downstairs, you’ll find an open, airy layout with a huge living room, dining area, and a dream kitchen featuring modern finishes, a large island, and plenty of storage. Up front, there’s a bonus flex room that would make a great office, game room, or cozy lounge, whatever fits your lifestyle best. Upstairs, the spacious primary suite gives you all the room you need to relax, complete with a big walk-in closet and

Key facts

• Upstairs loft
• Large gazebo
• Large island

Tags

• BONUS FLEX ROOM
• DREAM KITCHEN
• LARGE ISLAND
• UPSTAIRS LOFT
• FULLY FENCED BACKYARD
• LARGE GAZEBO

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 4-bed/3.0-bath single-family listed at $365k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-42 ($-502/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $358k (2.0% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $347k (5.0% below list).
• Recommended offer: $332k (9.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Cap rate 6.2% vs local median 4.6% in Elfers — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 78/100 on livability (#167 in FL, #2,486 nationally) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+, health & safety A+; Watch: crime C-, employment D+, amenities D-.
• Pasco (suburban): math 50% / reading 52% proficiency, ranked #32 of 73 in FL (top 44%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease.
• Zoned schools: Anclote Elementary School (math 37% / reading 37%, grade F, #1,609 of 2,144 statewide, top 77%, 420 students, 81% FRL); Gulf Middle School (math 34% / reading 33%, grade F, #428 of 571 statewide, top 76%, 901 students, 83% FRL); Gulf High School (math 32% / reading 34%, grade F, #406 of 667 statewide, top 61%, 1,465 students, 76% FRL) — zoned schools average 80% FRL vs 48% district-wide (32 pts higher); higher-poverty schools than district average — tighter screening recommended.
• Zoned-school proficiency averages 34% at this address vs 51% district-wide (-16 pts) — the specific schools serving this property underperform the Pasco average; the district grade overstates school quality for this exact location.
• Market conditions: Rents soft (-2.9%/yr); 306 active listings in the ZIP; 5 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals leasing fast (median 7d on market — plan ~1-2 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); 6,765 units permitted in Pasco County in 2024 (1,250 in 5+ unit buildings).
• At $3,468/mo this rent would consume 84% of the median local household income ($50k/yr) (locally 1439% of renters already pay >50% of income on rent) — very limited rent-growth headroom before tenants either downsize or default.

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $3k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $11k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Pasco County population projected at +29% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 116 days — a 9% lower offer ($332k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 2 sale attempts; this cycle's ask has dropped $35k (9%) from the opening price — seller is motivated, your offer sets the floor, not the list.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: severe wind risk, 99% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 6→23/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $332,241 (9.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. It's been on market 116 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 9% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
3. What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
4. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
5. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
6. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
7. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
8. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
9. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.95% ✗
• Cap rate: 6.16%
• Cash-on-cash: -0.49%
• DSCR: 0.98
• GRM: 8.8

CMA / ARV

• ARV (on-the-fly): $480,624
• Comps found: 6

Show comp detail 6 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
4215 Hanover Dr	0.05mi	5/2.5 (+1)	2,902 (+12%)	2mo	$415,000	$143	69
3895 Gainer Springs Ave	0.28mi	5/2.5 (+1)	2,389 (-8%)	20mo	$425,000	$178	50
6236 Hopewell Dr	0.31mi	3/2.0 (-1)	2,199 (-15%)	2mo	$215,000	$98	50
5801 Lenmar Ct	0.73mi	4/2.5	2,242 (-13%)	3mo	$475,000	$212	40
3177 O'hara Dr	0.58mi	3/2.0 (-1)	2,258 (-13%)	7mo	$419,500	$186	38
6083 Spring Crayfish Ave	0.30mi	5/2.5 (+1)	2,217 (-14%)	22mo	$465,000	$210	37

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 0.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -20.8%
• Equity multiple: 0.30×
• Total profit: $-71,777
• Equity at exit: $54,438

10-year hold

• IRR: -24.3%
• Equity multiple: -0.02×
• Total profit: $-104,350
• Equity at exit: $31,567

Cash invested: $102,228 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Florida: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+3
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day pay-or-quit; preempts local rent control; landlord-friendly statutes. Court speed varies by county.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 34653

• Home prices YoY: -18.4%
• Rents YoY: -2.9%
• Active inventory: 306
• Price-to-rent: 8.8×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $3,468 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,915
• Tax from tax record: −$682 /mo · $8,180/yr
• Insurance: −$152
• HOA: −$33
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$728
• Net cashflow: $-42

Break-even live

Break-even rent $3,521

Max offer price $357,712

Occupancy floor 96%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $165	-5% $62	+0% $-42	+5% $-145	+10% $-248
Rent	-10% $-316	-5% $-179	+0% $-42	+5% $95	+10% $232
Rate	-1.0pp $142	-0.5pp $51	base $-42	+0.5pp $-136	+1.0pp $-233

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $91,275
• Closing costs: $10,953
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 5 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
4132 Hanover Dr New Port Richey, FL	4.0	2.5	1870	$2,500	$1.34	16d	1	0.07mi
3737 Copperspring Blvd New Port Richey, FL	5.0	2.5	2584	$6,150	$2.38	26d	1	0.12mi
3816 Hanover Dr New Port Richey, FL	5.0	2.5	2215	$2,600	$1.17	6d	1	0.21mi
3626 Blackhawk Dr New Port Richey, FL	4.0	2.5	1985	$2,345	$1.18	6d	1	0.58mi
4331 Fiji Dr New Port Richey, FL	1.0–5.0	2.0–5.0	1343	$1,936	$1.44	5d	11	1.19mi

HOA detail

• Monthly dues: $33 · $396/yr

Listing history 7 events

1. 2026-04-28
   status Pending
2. 2026-03-25
   status Active
3. 2026-03-25
   price $365,100
4. 2026-01-05
   status Pending
5. 2025-12-12
   price $375,000
6. 2025-11-19
   price $384,900
7. 2025-10-15
   listed $399,900 Active

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast FL · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $8,180 · $682/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $8,180 · $682/mo
• Expected delta: $0/yr ($0/mo · -0.0%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 3/10 Moderate
• 🌡 Heat 10/10 Extreme 6 d/yr ≥108°F today · 23 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 10/10 Extreme 99% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 1 unhealthy d/yr today · 1 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $41,613
• − Mortgage interest: −$20,451
• − Property taxes: −$8,180
• − Insurance: −$1,826
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$3,329
• − Management: −$3,329
• − HOA: −$396
• − Depreciation: −$10,621
• Taxable loss: −$6,518
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$1,564
• After-tax cash flow: $1,062/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Pasco
• NCES district ID: 1201530
• Math proficiency: 50% ▼ -10.00%
• Reading proficiency: 52% ▼ -5.00%
• Median HH income: $45,039
• Composite: 43.14/100
• National rank: #3074
• State rank: #32 of 73 in FL

Livability — Elfers

• Score: 78/100
• State rank: #167
• US rank: #2486

Category grades

Amenities D- Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime C- Employment D+ Housing A+ Health & safety A+ User ratings A+

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Elfers, FL
• County: Pasco County · 524,098 people
• Metro: Tampa-St. Petersburg-Clearwater, FL
• Population (ZIP): 35,945
• Household income: $49,563
• Rent vs Own: 34.6% rent · 65.4% own
• Severe rent burden: 1439.0

Population outlook (Pasco County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 570,045 people
• By 2030: 605,844 · +6.3%
• By 2040: 674,806 · +18.4%
• By 2050: 736,022 · +29.1%
• By 2075: 862,900 · +51.4%
• By 2100: 906,364 · +59.0%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (74%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 74% Hispanic / Latino 14% Two or more races 9% Black 6% Asian 2%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 3% Puerto Rican 4% Cuban 2%
• Common ancestry: Romanian 3% Lithuanian 2% Slovak 2%
• Foreign-born: 11% · Canada, Jamaica, China
• Languages at home: 84% English-only · Spanish 9% Other Indo-European 2% Russian/Polish/Slavic 2%

Political lean MEDSL · Pasco

• 2024 margin: Strong R (+25.2) · D 36.9% · R 62.1% · Other 1.0%
• 2008→2024 swing: -21.6pp toward R · 2008: -3.6pp · 2024: -25.2pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+25.2 2020: R+20.1 2016: R+21.6 2012: R+6.7 2008: R+3.6

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -73.10%
• Current HPI: 324.6519
• Rent YoY: ▼ -2.92%
• Metro: Tampa-St. Petersburg-Clearwater, FL
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.28%
• F500 in state: 36

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in FL)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Industrial Technology	2	$29B
▸Insurance	2	$17B
▸Retail	1	$60B
▸Technology Distribution	1	$58B
▸Homebuilding	1	$35B
▸Technology Manufacturing	1	$35B

Price history

-8.7% since first listed

7 events — show timeline

• 2026-04-28 Pending — Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2026-03-25 Relisted — Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2026-03-25 Price Changed $365,100 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2026-01-05 Pending — Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2025-12-12 Price Changed $375,000 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2025-11-19 Price Changed $384,900 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2025-10-15 Listed $399,900 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid

Property tax history

+28.2%/yr

Latest (2025): $8,180 · +1.5% YoY. Source: county tax records.