4030 Lake Bluff Dr · Mascotte, FL 34753

$279,900

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,528 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 29 Days on market

Built 2002 10,523 sqft lot Est $290k · at est.

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Why this score? — see what drove the C grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +15.4/30.0
• Appreciation +10.0/10.0
• ARV discount +9.1/15.0
• DSCR +4.7/10.0
• Schools +4.2/10.0
• Livability +3.6/5.0
• 1% rule +3.3/10.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0

Listing remarks

Auction Property. This charming home is ready for its next owner! Nestled on a peaceful curve in the road, the property offers an oversized backyard with endless possibilities. Picture summer gatherings with family and friends, backyard games, cookouts, and relaxing evenings by the fire pit during the cooler winter months — your imagination is the limit. .. . Inside, this spacious 3-bedroom, 2-bath home features a desirable split floor plan designed for both comfort and privacy. As you enter through the front door, you’re welcomed into a formal living and dining area overlooking the covered back patio and expansive backyard. To the right, the private primary suite features slidi

Key facts

• Covered back patio
• Oversized backyard
• 0.24 acre lot

Tags

• OVERSIZED BACKYARD
• COVERED BACK PATIO
• PRIVATE PRIMARY SUITE
• PEACEFUL RURAL SETTING
• CONVENIENT ACCESS TO SHOPPING

Property features AI

Finance

• Other: Unfurnished; No home warranty
• HOA & community: No association indicated

Exterior

• Parking: Attached garage; 2-car garage
• Utilities: Public water; Public sewer; Electricity connected; Cable available
• Home design: Single family residence; Residential property; One level; Faces east
• Construction: Block and stucco construction; Shingle roof; Slab foundation; Built on a lot of about 0.24 acre
• Exterior features: Sidewalk; Paved lot; Asphalt road frontage

Interior

• Kitchen: Dishwasher; Range; Range hood; Refrigerator; Electric water heater
• Bedrooms: 3 bedrooms
• Flooring: Carpet; Ceramic tile; Laminate
• Bathrooms: 2 full bathrooms
• Heating & cooling: Central heating; Central air conditioning
• Interior features: Open floorplan; Living room and dining room combo
• Laundry & utility: Dedicated laundry room

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath single-family listed at $280k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $110 ($1k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $232k (17.1% below list).
• Recommended offer: $232k (17.1% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Cap rate 6.8% vs local median 4.8% in Mascotte — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 71/100 on livability (#405 in FL) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+, health & safety A+; Watch: schools D-, amenities F, commute F.
• Lake (suburban): math 49% / reading 50% proficiency, ranked #37 of 73 in FL (top 51%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Market conditions: 98 active listings in the ZIP; 10 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 19d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); solid renter incomes; 4,799 units permitted in Lake County in 2024 (814 in 5+ unit buildings).
• This rent runs 33% of the median local income ($84k/yr) — at the standard rent-burdened threshold; future hikes will face affordability resistance.

Forward outlook

• In year one you build about $30k of equity ($2k loan paydown + $28k appreciation (10.0% local appreciation)).
• Lake County population projected at +37% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.
• At projected returns (10.0% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $78k cash investment doubles in ~3 years — after that, you're playing with house money.
• By year 2, paydown + projected appreciation supports a ~$48k cash-out refi (75% LTV) — recoverable capital for the next deal without selling this one.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 29 days — a 2% lower offer ($276k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 2 sale attempts since 19y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: severe wind risk, 99% chance of damaging wind over 30y; major wildfire risk; extreme-heat days projected 7→24/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $231,931 (17.1% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
2. Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
3. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
4. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
5. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.83% ✗
• Cap rate: 6.76%
• Cash-on-cash: 1.68%
• DSCR: 1.07
• GRM: 10.1

CMA / ARV

• ARV (on-the-fly): $290,320
• Comps found: 7

Show comp detail 7 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
5040 Pine Needle Dr	0.17mi	3/2.0	1,435 (-6%)	3mo	$272,900	$190	79
5125 Pine Needle Dr	0.23mi	3/2.0	1,435 (-6%)	11mo	$249,900	$174	70
1725 Garden View St	0.25mi	4/2.0 (+1)	1,701 (+11%)	7mo	$262,000	$154	58
3324 Pink Oleander Ave	0.74mi	3/2.0	1,541 (+1%)	10mo	$338,350	$220	56
1651 Geranium Dr	0.56mi	3/2.0	1,541 (+1%)	22mo	$348,000	$226	54
1638 Geranium Dr	0.56mi	3/2.0	1,541 (+1%)	24mo	$343,980	$223	52
1948 Piedmont Ct	0.59mi	3/2.0	1,673 (+10%)	6mo	$305,000	$182	52

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

10.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 25.5%
• Equity multiple: 3.03×
• Total profit: $159,330
• Equity at exit: $252,156

10-year hold

• IRR: 22.4%
• Equity multiple: 6.91×
• Total profit: $463,520
• Equity at exit: $543,784

Cash invested: $78,372 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Florida: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+3
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day pay-or-quit; preempts local rent control; landlord-friendly statutes. Court speed varies by county.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 34753

• Home prices YoY: 7.2%
• Active inventory: 98
• Price-to-rent: 10.1×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $2,319 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,468
• Tax from tax record: −$138 /mo · $1,658/yr
• Insurance: −$117
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$487
• Net cashflow: $110

Break-even live

Break-even rent $2,180

Max offer price $279,900

Occupancy floor 90%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $268	-5% $189	+0% $110	+5% $30	+10% $-49
Rent	-10% $-74	-5% $18	+0% $110	+5% $201	+10% $293
Rate	-1.0pp $251	-0.5pp $181	base $110	+0.5pp $37	+1.0pp $-37

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $69,975
• Closing costs: $8,397
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 10 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
2425 Begonia St Mascotte, FL	4.0	2.0	1983	$2,350	$1.19	24d	1	0.17mi
4025 E Cardinal Pines Dr Mascotte, FL	3.0	2.0	1260	$2,100	$1.67	5d	1	0.21mi
614 Huey St Mascotte, FL	3.0	2.0	1572	$2,071	$1.32	5d	1	0.42mi
1665 Luft Ln Mascotte, FL	3.0	2.0	1680	$2,030	$1.21	24d	1	0.47mi
1600 Mayaro Ct Mascotte, FL	3.0	2.0	1503	$2,000	$1.33	18d	1	0.76mi
232 Boca Ciega Rd Mascotte, FL	4.0	2.0	1280	$2,095	$1.64	13d	1	0.97mi
6612 Tempo Way Mascotte, FL	3.0	2.0	1990	$2,600	$1.31	5d	1	1.24mi
6337 Chorus Dr Groveland, FL	3.0	2.0	1772	$2,250	$1.27	24d	1	1.25mi
201 Sangmon Ct Groveland, FL	3.0	2.5	1920	$2,299	$1.20	5d	1	1.42mi
2009 Sloans Outlook Dr Groveland, FL	3.0	2.0	1670	$2,250	$1.35	21d	1	1.42mi

Listing history 16 events

1. 2026-06-18
   days on market $279,900 Active 29 DOM
2. 2026-06-17
   days on market $279,900 Active 28 DOM
3. 2026-06-16
   days on market $279,900 Active 27 DOM
4. 2026-06-15
   days on market $279,900 Active 26 DOM
5. 2026-06-13
   days on market $279,900 Active 24 DOM
6. 2026-06-09
   days on market $279,900 Active 20 DOM
7. 2026-06-08
   days on market $279,900 Active 19 DOM
8. 2026-06-07
   days on market $279,900 Active 18 DOM
9. 2026-06-04
   days on market $279,900 Active 15 DOM
10. 2026-06-03
    days on market $279,900 Active 14 DOM
11. 2026-06-02
    days on market $279,900 Active 13 DOM
12. 2026-06-01
    days on market $279,900 Active 12 DOM
13. 2026-05-31
    days on market $279,900 Active 11 DOM
14. 2026-05-21
    listed $279,900 Active
15. 2007-10-26
    historical
16. 2007-10-02
    listed $165,000

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast FL · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $1,658 · $138/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $2,323 · $194/mo
• Expected delta: +$665/yr (+$55/mo · 40.1%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 7/10 Severe
• 🌡 Heat 9/10 Extreme 7 d/yr ≥108°F today · 24 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 9/10 Extreme 99% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 1/10 Low 0 unhealthy d/yr today · 0 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $27,832
• − Mortgage interest: −$15,679
• − Property taxes: −$1,658
• − Insurance: −$1,400
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$2,227
• − Management: −$2,227
• − Depreciation: −$8,143
• Taxable loss: −$3,500
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$840
• After-tax cash flow: $2,156/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Lake
• NCES district ID: 1201050
• Math proficiency: 49% ▼ -7.00%
• Reading proficiency: 50% ▼ -4.00%
• Median HH income: $46,632
• Composite: 42.05/100
• National rank: #3327
• State rank: #37 of 73 in FL

Livability — Mascotte

• Score: 71/100
• State rank: #405
• US rank: #7156

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime B- Employment C+ Housing A+ Health & safety A+ User ratings B+

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Mascotte, FL
• County: Lake County · 364,602 people
• City population: 33,565
• Metro: Orlando-Kissimmee-Sanford, FL
• Population (ZIP): 7,985
• Household income: $83,868
• Rent vs Own: 22.5% rent · 77.5% own
• Severe rent burden: 16.0

Population outlook (Lake County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 386,640 people
• By 2030: 417,107 · +7.9%
• By 2040: 476,676 · +23.3%
• By 2050: 531,296 · +37.4%
• By 2075: 648,303 · +67.7%
• By 2100: 698,530 · +80.7%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Diverse neighborhood (Simpson 0.69)
• Race & ethnicity: White 38% Hispanic / Latino 35% Two or more races 25% Black 20% Asian 3%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 11% Puerto Rican 12% Dominican 2%
• Common ancestry: Slovak 1% Serbian 1% Romanian 1%
• Foreign-born: 10% · Canada, Jamaica
• Languages at home: 67% English-only · Spanish 32%

Political lean MEDSL · Lake

• 2024 margin: Strong R (+24.7) · D 37.3% · R 62.0%
• 2008→2024 swing: -11.2pp toward R · 2008: -13.5pp · 2024: -24.7pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+24.7 2020: R+20.0 2016: R+23.1 2012: R+17.1 2008: R+13.5

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▲ 19.01%
• Current HPI: 281.96
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: Orlando-Kissimmee-Sanford, FL
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.28%
• F500 in state: 36

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in FL)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Industrial Technology	2	$29B
▸Insurance	2	$17B
▸Retail	1	$60B
▸Technology Distribution	1	$58B
▸Homebuilding	1	$35B
▸Technology Manufacturing	1	$35B

Price history

+69.6% since first listed

3 events — show timeline

• 2026-05-21 Listed $279,900 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2007-10-26 Listing Removed — Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2007-10-02 Listed $165,000 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid

Property tax history

+6.9%/yr

Latest (2025): $1,658 · +8.5% YoY. Source: county tax records.