12155 Environmental Dr #6 · Moon Lake, FL 34654

$114,999

2 bd · 1.0 ba · 1,008 sqft · Condo public records · 156 Days on market

Built 1983 $413/mo HOA · 23% of rent

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Why this score? — see what drove the C+ grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +24.4/30.0
• 1% rule +10.0/10.0
• DSCR +7.9/10.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• Schools +4.3/10.0
• Livability +2.8/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Rent growth +2.0/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

Nice condo for the money. Large living room and nice size bedrooms. Condo has a balcony that over looks a nice pond which is perfect for relaxing after a long day. Nice kitchen with breakfast bar. This one is priced right and is ready to close quickly ifneeded. Reduced! Best priced condo in the area. Won't last long now!!

Key facts

• Charming bay window
• Updated countertops
• Tranquil pond

Tags

• PRIVATE SCREENED IN BALCONY
• TRANQUIL POND
• BRIGHT OPEN FLOOR PLAN
• CHARMING BAY WINDOW
• UPDATED COUNTERTOPS
• OVERSIZED PASS THROUGH

Property features AI

Finance

• Other: Lease restrictions apply; Buyer approval may be required for community; Property is homestead exempt
• Financial info: Monthly condo fee $413 (total monthly fees shown $413); Total annual fees $4,956
• HOA & community: HOA required with monthly condo fee of $413; Association includes cable TV, internet, pool, maintenance (structure and grounds), recreational facilities, sewer and trash; Association approval required; Community clubhouse, community mailbox, deed restrictions, pool, and tennis courts; Pets allowed (cats and dogs), maximum pet weight ~20 lbs; Association contact: Mitch Lucas LCAM

Exterior

• Parking: Assigned covered parking; Guest parking available; 1-car carport
• Utilities: Public water; Public sewer; Cable connected
• Home design: Condominium; Two-story building; Faces southeast; Unit on 2nd floor
• Construction: Cedar and other exterior materials; Shingle roof; Slab foundation; Building number 12155
• Exterior features: Balcony; Sidewalk; Exterior storage; Pond view; In-ground pool

Interior

• Kitchen: Dishwasher; Microwave; Range; Refrigerator; Electric water heater
• Bedrooms: 2 bedrooms (one located on the 2nd floor)
• Flooring: Laminate; Tile
• Bathrooms: 1 full bathroom
• Heating & cooling: Central heat; Central air
• Interior features: Ceiling fans; Living room and dining room combo; Open floorplan; Thermostat; Blinds
• Laundry & utility: Washer and dryer included; Inside laundry; Inside utility/storage room

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 2-bed/1.0-bath condo listed at $115k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $234 ($3k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($2k rent vs $115k).
• Recommended offer: $101k (12.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Cap rate 8.7% vs local median 4.4% in Moon Lake — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 56/100 on livability (#871 in FL) — a working-class tenant base; expect higher turnover. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+; Watch: schools F, amenities F, commute F.
• Pasco (suburban): math 50% / reading 52% proficiency, ranked #32 of 73 in FL (top 44%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease.
• Market conditions: Rents soft (-1.9%/yr); 360 active listings in the ZIP; 6 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 25d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); 6,765 units permitted in Pasco County in 2024 (1,250 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $795 of loan paydown is wiped out by about $3k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Pasco County population projected at +29% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 156 days — a 12% lower offer ($101k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 4 sale attempts since 17y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.
• Current owner paid $26k; list at $115k implies a 334% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.

Risks & watch-outs

• Watch-outs: HOA is 23% of rent.
• Climate carrying-cost: severe wind risk, 99% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→26/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $101,199 (12.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 156 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 12% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
3. Any open or pending special assessments — roof, HVAC, plumbing, elevator, façade? What's the per-unit balance and payoff schedule, and is the seller paying it off at close or rolling it to the buyer?
4. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
5. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
6. Schools are F-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
7. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
8. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
9. How much new apartment / multifamily construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply (>2% of stock underway) typically softens rents 12–24 months out; light construction supports rent growth.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.55% ✓
• Cap rate: 8.74%
• Cash-on-cash: 8.74%
• DSCR: 1.39
• GRM: 5.4

CMA / ARV

No comps found within radius.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 0.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -7.6%
• Equity multiple: 0.73×
• Total profit: $-8,678
• Equity at exit: $17,147

10-year hold

• IRR: -4.3%
• Equity multiple: 0.77×
• Total profit: $-7,501
• Equity at exit: $9,943

Cash invested: $32,200 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Florida: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+3
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day pay-or-quit; preempts local rent control; landlord-friendly statutes. Court speed varies by county.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 34654

• Home prices YoY: -12.7%
• Rents YoY: -1.9%
• Active inventory: 360
• Price-to-rent: 5.4×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,787 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$603
• Tax from tax record: −$113 /mo · $1,357/yr
• Insurance: −$48
• HOA: −$413
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$375
• Net cashflow: $234

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,490

Max offer price $114,999

Occupancy floor 82%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $300	-5% $267	+0% $234	+5% $202	+10% $169
Rent	-10% $93	-5% $164	+0% $234	+5% $305	+10% $376
Rate	-1.0pp $292	-0.5pp $264	base $234	+0.5pp $205	+1.0pp $174

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $28,750
• Closing costs: $3,450
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 6 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
12135 Environmental Dr #4 New Port Richey, FL	3.0	2.0	1239	$1,800	$1.45	25d	1	0.01mi
11550 Baywood Meadows Dr #7 New Port Richey, FL	2.0	1.0	1008	$1,495	$1.48	25d	1	0.07mi
12065 Grizzly Ln New Port Richey, FL	3.0	2.5	1440	$2,200	$1.53	18d	1	0.32mi
12405 Shearwater Dr Unit 12405 New Port Richey, FL	2.0	2.0	1000	$1,600	$1.60	4d	1	0.33mi
12245 Grizzly Ln New Port Richey, FL	3.0	2.5	1207	$2,280	$1.89	25d	1	0.35mi
11630 Bayonet Ln New Port Richey, FL	1.0	1.5	923	$1,150	$1.25	21d	1	0.93mi

HOA detail condo

• Monthly dues: $413 · $4,956/yr
• Assessments: None detected in remarks — confirm with the listing agent.

Listing history 32 events

1. 2026-06-18
   days on market $114,999 Active 156 DOM
2. 2026-06-17
   price $114,999 Active 155 DOM
3. 2026-06-17
   days on market $117,000 Active 155 DOM
4. 2026-06-16
   days on market $117,000 Active 154 DOM
5. 2026-06-15
   days on market $117,000 Active 153 DOM
6. 2026-06-13
   days on market $117,000 Active 151 DOM
7. 2026-06-09
   days on market $117,000 Active 147 DOM
8. 2026-06-08
   days on market $117,000 Active 146 DOM
9. 2026-06-07
   days on market $117,000 Active 145 DOM
10. 2026-06-04
    days on market $117,000 Active 142 DOM
11. 2026-06-03
    days on market $117,000 Active 141 DOM
12. 2026-06-02
    days on market $117,000 Active 140 DOM
13. 2026-06-01
    days on market $117,000 Active 139 DOM
14. 2026-05-31
    days on market $117,000 Active 138 DOM
15. 2026-03-27
    price $117,000
16. 2026-02-14
    price $117,900
17. 2026-01-13
    listed $119,900 Active
18. 2025-12-31
    historical
19. 2025-12-17
    price $129,000
20. 2025-11-17
    price $115,000
21. 2025-10-14
    price $129,900
22. 2025-10-14
    status Active
23. 2025-07-21
    price $127,000
24. 2025-07-21
    price $12,700
25. 2025-06-09
    price $127,700
26. 2025-06-02
    price $129,900
27. 2025-03-17
    price $132,500
28. 2025-03-04
    listed $138,500 Active
29. 2009-08-06
    soldstatus $26,500 323-char remark

    Show marketing remark (323 chars)

    Nice condo for the money. Large living room and nice size bedrooms. Condo has a balcony that over looks a nice pond which is perfect for relaxing after a long day. Nice kitchen with breakfast bar. This one is priced right and is ready to close quickly ifneeded. Reduced! Best priced condo in the area. Won't last long now!!

30. 2009-04-05
    listed $28,900 323-char remark

    Show marketing remark (323 chars)

    Nice condo for the money. Large living room and nice size bedrooms. Condo has a balcony that over looks a nice pond which is perfect for relaxing after a long day. Nice kitchen with breakfast bar. This one is priced right and is ready to close quickly ifneeded. Reduced! Best priced condo in the area. Won't last long now!!

31. 2006-04-05
    soldstatus $93,500
32. 2003-04-22
    soldstatus $33,800

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast FL · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $1,357 · $113/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $1,357 · $113/mo
• Expected delta: $0/yr ($0/mo · 0.0%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 4/10 Moderate
• 🌡 Heat 10/10 Extreme 7 d/yr ≥108°F today · 26 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 10/10 Extreme 99% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 1 unhealthy d/yr today · 3 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $21,440
• − Mortgage interest: −$6,442
• − Property taxes: −$1,357
• − Insurance: −$575
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,715
• − Management: −$1,715
• − HOA: −$4,956
• − Depreciation: −$3,345
• Taxable income: $1,335
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$320
• After-tax cash flow: $2,493/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Pasco
• NCES district ID: 1201530
• Math proficiency: 50% ▼ -10.00%
• Reading proficiency: 52% ▼ -5.00%
• Median HH income: $45,039
• Composite: 43.14/100
• National rank: #3074
• State rank: #32 of 73 in FL

Livability — Moon Lake

• Score: 56/100
• State rank: #871
• US rank: #22850

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime B- Employment F Housing A+ Health & safety F User ratings A

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• County: Pasco County · 524,098 people
• Metro: Tampa-St. Petersburg-Clearwater, FL
• Population (ZIP): 24,355
• Household income: $73,947
• Rent vs Own: 20.0% rent · 80.0% own
• Severe rent burden: 179.0

Population outlook (Pasco County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 570,045 people
• By 2030: 605,844 · +6.3%
• By 2040: 674,806 · +18.4%
• By 2050: 736,022 · +29.1%
• By 2075: 862,900 · +51.4%
• By 2100: 906,364 · +59.0%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (81%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 81% Hispanic / Latino 10% Two or more races 7% Black 3% Asian 2%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Puerto Rican 6%
• Common ancestry: Romanian 4% Slovak 2% Italian 2%
• Foreign-born: 7% · Canada, China, Jamaica
• Languages at home: 88% English-only · Spanish 5% Russian/Polish/Slavic 2% Other Indo-European 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Pasco

• 2024 margin: Strong R (+25.2) · D 36.9% · R 62.1% · Other 1.0%
• 2008→2024 swing: -21.6pp toward R · 2008: -3.6pp · 2024: -25.2pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+25.2 2020: R+20.1 2016: R+21.6 2012: R+6.7 2008: R+3.6

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -42.63%
• Current HPI: 294.4358
• Rent YoY: ▼ -1.85%
• Metro: Tampa-St. Petersburg-Clearwater, FL
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.28%
• F500 in state: 36

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in FL)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Industrial Technology	2	$29B
▸Insurance	2	$17B
▸Retail	1	$60B
▸Technology Distribution	1	$58B
▸Homebuilding	1	$35B
▸Technology Manufacturing	1	$35B

Price history

+246.2% since first listed

18 events — show timeline

• 2026-03-27 Price Changed $117,000 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2026-02-14 Price Changed $117,900 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2026-01-13 Listed $119,900 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2025-12-31 Listing Removed — Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2025-12-17 Price Changed $129,000 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2025-11-17 Price Changed $115,000 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2025-10-14 Price Changed $129,900 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2025-10-14 Relisted — Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2025-07-21 Price Changed $127,000 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2025-07-21 Price Changed $12,700 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2025-06-09 Price Changed $127,700 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2025-06-02 Price Changed $129,900 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2025-03-17 Price Changed $132,500 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2025-03-04 Listed $138,500 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2009-08-06 Sold (MLS) $26,500 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2009-04-05 Listed $28,900 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2006-04-05 Sold (Public Records) $93,500 Public Records
• 2003-04-22 Sold (Public Records) $33,800 Public Records

Property tax history

+11.6%/yr

Latest (2025): $1,357 · +2.3% YoY. Source: county tax records.