4962 Las Cruces Ct · Brownsville, TX 78526

$247,000

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,708 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 11 Days on market

Built 1986 7,350 sqft lot Est $263k · 6% under

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Why this score? — see what drove the D grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +14.7/30.0
• ARV discount +10.2/15.0
• DSCR +4.5/10.0
• Livability +4.0/5.0
• 1% rule +3.8/10.0
• Rent growth +3.2/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Schools +2.2/10.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks

Beautiful 3-bedroom, 2-bath home located in a quiet cul-de-sac. This well-maintained property features a spacious living room with fireplace, a combined kitchen and breakfast area, and plantation shutters throughout. The primary suite offers an updated bathroom, and new carpet has been installed in all bedrooms. Enjoy outdoor living with a covered patio and privacy fence. Additional upgrades include a new A/C unit (inside and out) and new duct work and water softener Centrally located near restaurants, schools, shopping strips and the hospital. This house is move-in ready

Key facts

• New a/c unit
• Covered patio
• Privacy fence

Tags

• CUL-DE-SAC
• FIREPLACE
• COVERED PATIO
• PRIVACY FENCE
• UPDATED BATHROOM
• NEW A/C UNIT

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath single-family listed at $247k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $62 ($740/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $217k (12.1% below list).
• Recommended offer: $217k (12.1% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Cap rate 6.6% vs local median 5.0% in Brownsville — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 79/100 on livability (#62 in TX, #2,311 nationally) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: commute A+, cost of living A+, housing A+; Watch: amenities D, crime D-, employment F.
• Brownsville ISD (urban): math 20% / reading 34% proficiency, ranked #710 of 826 in TX (top 86%) — low school quality limits family demand, transient renter base, plan for 1-2y turnover; 83% free/reduced lunch — lower-income household profile, screen leases tightly.
• Zoned schools: Burns El (math 22% / reading 27%, grade F, #3,052 of 4,322 statewide, top 74%, 604 students, 92% FRL); Vela Middle (math 19% / reading 37%, grade F, #1,143 of 1,662 statewide, top 69%, 638 students, 82% FRL); Hanna Early College H S (math 24% / reading 49%, grade F, #924 of 1,632 statewide, top 57%, 2,246 students, 88% FRL) — zoned schools at 87% FRL track the district average.
• Market conditions: Rents rising (+2.8%/yr); 415 active listings in the ZIP; 28 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 24d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); 2,326 units permitted in Cameron County in 2024 (503 in 5+ unit buildings).
• This rent runs 37% of the median local income ($71k/yr) — at the standard rent-burdened threshold; future hikes will face affordability resistance.

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $2k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $7k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Cameron County population projected at +3% by 2050 — modest demand growth; plan on rents tracking national, not racing it.

Negotiation context

• Only 11 days on market — expect competitive offers; lowballing is unlikely to land.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: severe wind risk, 99% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→25/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $216,992 (12.1% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
2. Crime grade is D in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
3. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
4. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
5. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
6. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.88% ✗
• Cap rate: 6.59%
• Cash-on-cash: 1.07%
• DSCR: 1.05
• GRM: 9.5

CMA / ARV

• ARV (on-the-fly): $263,032
• Comps found: 6

Show comp detail 6 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
4840 Larkspur Dr	0.32mi	3/2.0	1,591 (-7%)	6mo	$245,500	$154	68
4731 Larkspur Ave	0.35mi	3/2.0	1,779 (+4%)	13mo	$240,000	$135	66
1415 Alta Mesa Blvd	0.19mi	3/2.0	1,901 (+11%)	10mo	$229,000	$120	64
4951 Daffodil Dr	0.17mi	3/2.0	1,498 (-12%)	16mo	$239,500	$160	58
1558 Guadalajara Ave	0.47mi	3/2.0	1,581 (-7%)	17mo	$249,000	$157	52
987 Paso Del Rio Dr	0.66mi	3/2.0	1,457 (-15%)	21mo	$199,999	$137	27

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 2.77% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -14.8%
• Equity multiple: 0.47×
• Total profit: $-36,600
• Equity at exit: $36,829

10-year hold

• IRR: -6.6%
• Equity multiple: 0.58×
• Total profit: $-28,864
• Equity at exit: $21,356

Cash invested: $69,160 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Texas: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+5
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day notice; statewide preemption; one of the fastest eviction climates; Travis County (Austin) slightly slower.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 78526

• Home prices YoY: -12.1%
• Rents YoY: 2.8%
• Active inventory: 415
• Price-to-rent: 9.5×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $2,170 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,295
• Tax from tax record: −$254 /mo · $3,053/yr
• Insurance: −$103
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$456
• Net cashflow: $62

Break-even live

Break-even rent $2,092

Max offer price $247,000

Occupancy floor 92%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $201	-5% $132	+0% $62	+5% $-8	+10% $-78
Rent	-10% $-110	-5% $-24	+0% $62	+5% $147	+10% $233
Rate	-1.0pp $186	-0.5pp $124	base $62	+0.5pp $-2	+1.0pp $-67

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $61,750
• Closing costs: $7,410
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 28 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
1587 Pinion Dr Brownsville, TX	3.0	2.0	1226	$1,750	$1.43	46d	1	0.14mi
4951 Daffodil Dr Brownsville, TX	3.0	2.0	1498	$2,400	$1.60	23d	1	0.17mi
4951 Daffodil Dr Brownsville, TX	3.0	2.0	1498	$2,400	$1.60	46d	1	0.17mi
1315 Pinion Dr Brownsville, TX	3.0	2.0	1600	$1,950	$1.22	46d	1	0.26mi
4883 Camino Verde Dr Brownsville, TX	3.0	2.0	1302	$1,800	$1.38	23d	1	0.37mi
2066 Saketa Ln Brownsville, TX	3.0	2.0	1184	$1,700	$1.44	16d	1	0.49mi
1124 Sierra Grande Dr Brownsville, TX	3.0	2.0	1308	$1,599	$1.22	23d	1	0.49mi
2018 Diamond Dr Unit A Brownsville, TX	2.0	2.5	1465	$1,750	$1.19	46d	1	0.52mi
2019 Diamond Dr Unit B Brownsville, TX	3.0	2.5	1565	$1,950	$1.25	23d	1	0.54mi
2011 Diamond Dr Unit A Brownsville, TX	2.0	2.5	1465	$2,900	$1.98	23d	1	0.55mi
1044 Alta Mesa Blvd Brownsville, TX	3.0	2.0	1276	$1,700	$1.33	16d	1	0.58mi
4874 Espada Grande Ave Brownsville, TX	4.0	2.5	2215	$3,300	$1.49	23d	1	0.63mi
1653 W San Marcelo Blvd Brownsville, TX	3.0	2.0	1212	$1,700	$1.40	23d	1	0.64mi
1683 Artemisa Ave Brownsville, TX	3.0	2.0	1717	$1,950	$1.14	23d	1	0.65mi
944 Alta Mesa Blvd Brownsville, TX	3.0	2.0	1582	$1,900	$1.20	23d	1	0.71mi
2107 Carlos Ave Unit A Brownsville, TX	3.0	2.0	1500	$1,500	$1.00	16d	1	0.74mi
5771 Greenwood Dr Brownsville, TX	3.0	2.0	1881	$1,950	$1.04	46d	1	0.81mi
6732 Stone Oak Brownsville, TX	3.0	2.0	1786	$2,300	$1.29	16d	1	0.85mi
5871 Greenwood Dr Brownsville, TX	3.0	2.5	1820	$1,950	$1.07	16d	1	0.85mi
6601 Garden Woods Ave Brownsville, TX	3.0	2.0	1291	$1,600	$1.24	46d	1	0.91mi
6978 Heritage Oak Dr Brownsville, TX	3.0	2.0	1476	$2,250	$1.52	23d	1	1.16mi
124 Barcelona Ave Brownsville, TX	3.0	2.0	1708	$2,900	$1.70	23d	1	1.21mi
6705 Garden Woods Ave Unit B Brownsville, TX	3.0	2.0	1350	$1,550	$1.15	16d	1	1.29mi
7073 Heritage Oak Dr Brownsville, TX	4.0	3.5	2204	$3,400	$1.54	46d	1	1.30mi
15 Valles Ct Brownsville, TX	3.0	2.0	1715	$2,350	$1.37	16d	1	1.35mi
3330 Calle Bolivia Brownsville, TX	3.0	2.5	2090	$2,550	$1.22	46d	1	1.43mi
2100 W San Marcelo Blvd Brownsville, TX	2.0–3.0	2.0–2.5	1069	$1,500	$1.40	46d	2	1.45mi
3247 Noble Dr Brownsville, TX	3.0	2.0	1800	$2,000	$1.11	23d	1	1.46mi

Listing history 7 events

1. 2026-04-23
   soldstatus
2. 2026-03-27
   status Pending
3. 2026-03-01
   listed $247,000 Active
4. 2008-03-04
   soldstatus
5. 1994-07-28
   soldstatus
6. 1993-01-22
   soldstatus
7. 1989-03-01
   soldstatus

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast TX · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $3,053 · $254/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $4,520 · $377/mo
• Expected delta: +$1,468/yr (+$122/mo · 48.1%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 4/10 Moderate
• 🌡 Heat 9/10 Extreme 7 d/yr ≥110°F today · 25 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 9/10 Extreme 99% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 1 unhealthy d/yr today · 1 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $26,039
• − Mortgage interest: −$13,836
• − Property taxes: −$3,053
• − Insurance: −$1,235
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$2,083
• − Management: −$2,083
• − Depreciation: −$7,185
• Taxable loss: −$3,436
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$825
• After-tax cash flow: $1,564/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Brownsville ISD
• NCES district ID: 4811680
• Math proficiency: 20% ▼ -36.00%
• Reading proficiency: 34% ▼ -13.00%
• Median HH income: $30,490
• Composite: 21.8/100
• National rank: #8249
• State rank: #710 of 826 in TX

Livability — Brownsville

• Score: 79/100
• State rank: #62
• US rank: #2311

Category grades

Amenities D Commute A+ Cost of living A+ Crime D- Employment F Housing A+ Health & safety A+ User ratings B-

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Brownsville, TX
• County: Cameron County · 310,734 people
• City population: 212,132
• Metro: Brownsville-Harlingen, TX
• Population (ZIP): 60,012
• Household income: $70,565
• Rent vs Own: 30.8% rent · 69.2% own
• Severe rent burden: 1063.0

Population outlook (Cameron County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 441,603 people
• By 2030: 448,113 · +1.5%
• By 2040: 456,385 · +3.3%
• By 2050: 456,294 · +3.3%
• By 2075: 423,851 · -4.0%
• By 2100: 342,787 · -22.4%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly Hispanic (93%)
• Race & ethnicity: Hispanic / Latino 93% Two or more races 45% White 4% Asian 2%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 87%
• Foreign-born: 25% · Canada, Vietnam
• Languages at home: 19% English-only · Spanish 79% Tagalog/Filipino 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Cameron

• 2024 margin: Lean R (+5.8) · D 46.7% · R 52.5%
• 2008→2024 swing: -34.6pp toward R · 2008: 28.8pp · 2024: -5.8pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+5.8 2020: D+13.2 2016: D+32.5 2012: D+32.4 2008: D+28.8

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -30.28%
• Current HPI: 220.5233
• Rent YoY: ▲ 2.77%
• Metro: Brownsville-Harlingen, TX
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.95%
• F500 in state: 110

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in TX)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Energy	16	$1,198B
▸Technology	5	$198B
▸Engineering / Construction	4	$72B
▸Energy Services	3	$60B
▸Utilities	3	$41B
▸Healthcare	2	$330B

Price history

7 events — show timeline

• 2026-04-23 Sold (Public Records) — Public Records
• 2026-03-27 Pending — RGVMLS
• 2026-03-01 Listed $247,000 RGVMLS
• 2008-03-04 Sold (Public Records) — Public Records
• 1994-07-28 Sold (Public Records) — Public Records
• 1993-01-22 Sold (Public Records) — Public Records
• 1989-03-01 Sold (Public Records) — Public Records

Property tax history

+1.9%/yr

Latest (2025): $3,053 · +0.2% YoY. Source: county tax records.