8302 25th St · Lubbock, TX 79407

$223,830

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,316 sqft · SingleFamily · 8 Days on market

Built 2026 Good condition

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Why this score? — see what drove the D- grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +10.9/30.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• Schools +4.4/10.0
• Livability +4.0/5.0
• Condition / age +4.0/5.0
• 1% rule +3.2/10.0
• DSCR +3.2/10.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks

The 1,300 square-foot Gracie floor plan is a spacious, well-connected layout with the flexibility to fit your day-to-day. Brick and vinyl exterior with covered entryLuxury vinyl plank flooring in main areasOpen-concept kitchen, living, and dining areaGranite or quartz countertopsSpacious kitchen island with bar seatingStainless steel appliancesEnclosed pantryPrivate primary suite with walk-in closet

Key facts

• Open-concept kitchen
• Covered entry
• Gracie floor plan

Tags

• GRACIE FLOOR PLAN
• COVERED ENTRY
• LUXURY VINYL PLANK FLOORING
• OPEN-CONCEPT KITCHEN
• GRANITE OR QUARTZ COUNTERTOPS
• SPACIOUS KITCHEN ISLAND

Property features AI

Finance

• Other: Address: 8302 25th St, Lubbock, TX 79407; List price available

Exterior

• Parking: 1 parking space
• Utilities: Has heating; Has cooling
• Home design: Single-family spec home (Plan: Gracie); Active listing
• Exterior features: Living area 1316

Interior

• Kitchen: Dishwasher; Garbage disposal; Microwave
• Bedrooms: 3 bedrooms
• Bathrooms: 2 full bathrooms
• Heating & cooling: Forced air heating; Central air conditioning; Ceiling fans
• Interior features: Built-in dishwasher; Waste disposal; Microwave

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath single-family listed at $224k. Condition is rated good.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-97 ($-1k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $210k (6.3% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $184k (18.0% below list).
• Recommended offer: $184k (18.0% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 80/100 on livability (#37 in TX, #1,749 nationally) — a professional / high-income tenant draw. Strengths: commute A+, cost of living A+, housing A+; Watch: employment C-, schools D+, crime F.
• Frenship ISD (urban): math 47% / reading 54% proficiency, ranked #162 of 826 in TX (top 20%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease.
• Market conditions: Rents soft (-0.1%/yr); 610 active listings in the ZIP; 40 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 22d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); 2,219 units permitted in Lubbock County in 2024 (252 in 5+ unit buildings).
• This rent runs 36% of the median local income ($62k/yr) — at the standard rent-burdened threshold; future hikes will face affordability resistance.

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $2k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $7k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Lubbock County population projected at +39% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.

Negotiation context

• Only 8 days on market — expect competitive offers; lowballing is unlikely to land.

Recommended offer $183,553 (18.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
3. Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
4. Crime grade is F in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
5. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
6. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
7. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
8. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.82% ✗
• Cap rate: 5.77%
• Cash-on-cash: -1.85%
• DSCR: 0.92
• GRM: 10.2

CMA / ARV

No comps found within radius.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 0.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -22.8%
• Equity multiple: 0.24×
• Total profit: $-47,785
• Equity at exit: $33,374

10-year hold

• IRR: -27.5%
• Equity multiple: -0.12×
• Total profit: $-70,223
• Equity at exit: $19,353

Cash invested: $62,672 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Texas: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+5
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day notice; statewide preemption; one of the fastest eviction climates; Travis County (Austin) slightly slower.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 79407

• Home prices YoY: -16.3%
• Rents YoY: -0.1%
• Active inventory: 610
• Price-to-rent: 10.2×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,836 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,174
• Tax est. 1.5%: −$280 /mo · $3,357/yr
• Insurance: −$93
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$385
• Net cashflow: $-97

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,958

Max offer price $209,827

Occupancy floor —

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $58	-5% $-19	+0% $-97	+5% $-174	+10% $-251
Rent	-10% $-242	-5% $-169	+0% $-97	+5% $-24	+10% $48
Rate	-1.0pp $16	-0.5pp $-40	base $-97	+0.5pp $-155	+1.0pp $-214

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $55,958
• Closing costs: $6,715
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 40 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
2617 Garland Ave Lubbock, TX	4.0	2.0	1703	$2,000	$1.17	22d	1	0.23mi
2603 Harmony Ave Lubbock, TX	3.0	2.0	1450	$1,749	$1.21	22d	1	0.28mi
2603 Harmony Ave Lubbock, TX	3.0	2.0	1450	$1,749	$1.21	14d	1	0.28mi
8607 29th St Lubbock, TX	3.0	2.0	1350	$1,749	$1.30	44d	1	0.30mi
2505 Kenwood Ave Lubbock, TX	3.0	2.0	1550	$1,799	$1.16	22d	1	0.67mi
2511 Kenwood Ave Lubbock, TX	3.0	2.0	1450	$2,099	$1.45	22d	1	0.67mi
2509 Kenwood Ave Lubbock, TX	3.0	2.0	1450	$1,699	$1.17	22d	1	0.67mi
2515 Kenwood Ave Lubbock, TX	3.0	2.0	1550	$1,799	$1.16	22d	1	0.68mi
2055 Kenwood Ave Lubbock, TX	3.0	2.0	1450	$1,649	$1.14	14d	1	0.68mi
2163 Langford Ave Lubbock, TX	4.0	2.0	1600	$2,399	$1.50	22d	1	0.70mi
2161 Langford Ave Lubbock, TX	3.0	2.0	1552	$1,649	$1.06	22d	1	0.71mi
2154 Kokomo Ave Lubbock, TX	3.0	2.0	1450	$1,799	$1.24	22d	1	0.72mi
2028 Kenwood Ave Lubbock, TX	3.0	2.0	1450	$1,650	$1.14	14d	1	0.74mi
2168 Langford Ave Lubbock, TX	3.0	2.0	1450	$1,699	$1.17	44d	1	0.74mi
2150 Kokomo Ave Lubbock, TX	4.0	2.0	1600	$2,199	$1.37	22d	1	0.75mi
2125 Kirksey Ave Lubbock, TX	3.0	2.0	1450	$1,650	$1.14	14d	1	0.75mi
2166 Langford Ave Lubbock, TX	4.0	2.0	1600	$2,199	$1.37	14d	1	0.75mi
2139 Kokomo Ave Lubbock, TX	3.0	2.0	1504	$1,349	$0.90	44d	1	0.76mi
2146 Kokomo Ave Lubbock, TX	3.0	2.0	1550	$2,299	$1.48	44d	1	0.77mi
2162 Langford Ave Lubbock, TX	3.0	2.0	1450	$1,699	$1.17	44d	1	0.78mi
2131 Kokomo Ave Unit A Lubbock, TX	3.0	2.0	1360	$1,500	$1.10	22d	1	0.79mi
2147 Langford Ave Lubbock, TX	3.0	2.0	1450	$1,699	$1.17	22d	1	0.79mi
2140 Kokomo Ave Lubbock, TX	4.0	2.0	1450	$1,999	$1.38	44d	1	0.80mi
2156 Langford Ave Lubbock, TX	4.0	2.0	1600	$2,099	$1.31	22d	1	0.81mi
2143 Langford Ave Lubbock, TX	3.0	2.0	1450	$1,750	$1.21	44d	1	0.81mi
2154 Langford Ave Lubbock, TX	3.0	2.0	1550	$1,799	$1.16	44d	1	0.82mi
2130 Kokomo Ave Lubbock, TX	4.0	2.0	1450	$2,199	$1.52	22d	1	0.82mi
2152 Langford Ave Unit Labs Lubbock, TX	3.0	2.0	1450	$1,660	$1.14	22d	1	0.82mi
2139 Langford Ave Lubbock, TX	3.0	2.0	1450	$1,899	$1.31	22d	1	0.83mi
2137 Langford Ave Lubbock, TX	3.0	2.0	1450	$1,700	$1.17	22d	1	0.83mi
2133 Langford Ave Lubbock, TX	3.0	2.0	1550	$1,999	$1.29	22d	1	0.84mi
2148 Langford Ave Lubbock, TX	3.0	2.0	1450	$1,699	$1.17	44d	1	0.84mi
2127 Langford Ave Lubbock, TX	3.0	2.0	1550	$1,699	$1.10	14d	1	0.85mi
2123 Langford Ave Lubbock, TX	3.0	2.0	1450	$1,799	$1.24	22d	1	0.85mi
2144 Langford Ave Lubbock, TX	3.0	2.0	1550	$1,799	$1.16	14d	1	0.85mi
2140 Langford Ave Lubbock, TX	3.0	2.0	1552	$1,749	$1.13	44d	1	0.86mi
2138 Langford Ave Lubbock, TX	3.0	2.0	1450	$1,699	$1.17	44d	1	0.87mi
2134 Langford Ave Lubbock, TX	3.0	2.0	1552	$1,699	$1.09	44d	1	0.87mi
2132 Langford Ave Lubbock, TX	3.0	2.0	1450	$1,699	$1.17	14d	1	0.88mi
2130 Langford Ave Lubbock, TX	3.0	2.0	1552	$1,575	$1.01	44d	1	0.88mi

Listing history 6 events

1. 2026-06-18
   days on market $223,830 Active 8 DOM
2. 2026-06-17
   days on market $223,830 Active 7 DOM
3. 2026-06-16
   days on market $223,830 Active 6 DOM
4. 2026-06-15
   days on market $223,830 Active 5 DOM
5. 2026-06-13
   remarks 402-char remark
6. 2026-06-13
   listed $223,830 Active 2 DOM

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $22,026
• − Mortgage interest: −$12,538
• − Property taxes: −$3,357
• − Insurance: −$1,119
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,762
• − Management: −$1,762
• − Depreciation: −$6,511
• Taxable loss: −$5,024
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$1,206
• After-tax cash flow: $44/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Condition & rehab AI · 12 photos

Good 80/100 Cosmetic rehab

This home is in good condition with modern amenities and a well-maintained exterior. It has potential for further value increases through minor cosmetic updates and smart home features.

Value-add opportunities

• Both Painting exterior and interior walls — Fresh paint can enhance curb appeal and interior aesthetics
• Both Landscaping and curb appeal improvements — Enhances curb appeal and can attract more potential buyers
• Both Add smart home features — Modernizes the home and can increase its value
• Both Add a smart thermostat — Can improve energy efficiency and comfort
• Both Add a smart security system — Enhances safety and can be a selling point

Renovation cost estimate screening

Value-add ROI direction

• Both Painting exterior and interior walls — Fresh paint can enhance curb appeal and interior aesthetics ↑
• Both Landscaping and curb appeal improvements — Enhances curb appeal and can attract more potential buyers ↑
• Both Add smart home features — Modernizes the home and can increase its value ↑
• Both Add a smart thermostat — Can improve energy efficiency and comfort ↑
• Both Add a smart security system — Enhances safety and can be a selling point ↑

ⓘ Cost ranges are severity-bucket heuristics (US national rule-of-thumb). Get contractor quotes + a written scope before underwriting a rehab budget.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Frenship ISD
• NCES district ID: 4819830
• Math proficiency: 47% ▼ -8.00%
• Reading proficiency: 54% ▬ 0.00%
• Median HH income: $54,376
• Composite: 43.59/100
• National rank: #2976
• State rank: #162 of 826 in TX

Livability — Lubbock

• Score: 80/100
• State rank: #37
• US rank: #1749

Category grades

Amenities A Commute A+ Cost of living A+ Crime F Employment C- Housing A+ Health & safety A+ User ratings D+

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Lubbock, TX
• County: Lubbock County · 293,542 people
• City population: 283,030
• Metro: Lubbock, TX
• Population (ZIP): 24,000
• Household income: $61,509
• Rent vs Own: 52.8% rent · 47.2% own
• Severe rent burden: 1914.0

Population outlook (Lubbock County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 345,960 people
• By 2030: 371,449 · +7.4%
• By 2040: 424,539 · +22.7%
• By 2050: 481,150 · +39.1%
• By 2075: 633,467 · +83.1%
• By 2100: 746,853 · +115.9%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Diverse neighborhood (Simpson 0.56)
• Race & ethnicity: White 58% Hispanic / Latino 31% Two or more races 17% Black 4% Asian 3%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 27%
• Common ancestry: Italian 2% Lithuanian 1% Slovak 1%
• Foreign-born: 5% · Canada, South Korea, China
• Languages at home: 83% English-only · Spanish 13% Other Asian/Pacific 1% Chinese 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Lubbock

• 2024 margin: Solid R (+39.5) · D 29.7% · R 69.2% · Other 1.0%
• 2008→2024 swing: -2.8pp toward R · 2008: -36.7pp · 2024: -39.5pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+39.5 2020: R+32.2 2016: R+38.4 2012: R+40.9 2008: R+36.7

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -44.87%
• Current HPI: 229.9895
• Rent YoY: ▼ -0.07%
• Metro: Lubbock, TX
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.95%
• F500 in state: 110

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in TX)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Energy	16	$1,198B
▸Technology	5	$198B
▸Engineering / Construction	4	$72B
▸Energy Services	3	$60B
▸Utilities	3	$41B
▸Healthcare	2	$330B