410 W Water · Pinckneyville, IL 62274

$97,000

5 bd · 2.5 ba · 2,300 sqft · SingleFamily · 143 Days on market

Built 1885 0.72 ac lot Est $152k · 36% under

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Why this score? — see what drove the B+ grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +30.0/30.0
• ARV discount +15.0/15.0
• DSCR +10.0/10.0
• 1% rule +9.4/10.0
• Livability +3.2/5.0
• Schools +2.6/10.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks

Owners are currently painting walls and putting up trim for improvements. Updated pictures as soon as they finish. Historic, downtown, 5 bedroom, 2 1/2 bath home with a full basement and 2 car garage. Plenty of room to entertain and raise a big family. Ready for your renovation ideas and plans. Front porch needs remade and is off limits. Front door has been blocked, but can easily be reopened. Come see this historic charm for yourself.

Key facts

• 0.72 acre lot
• 2 garage spots
• Built 1885

Property features AI

Finance

• Other: Estimated above-grade finished area: 2,300; Lot dimensions approximately 100 x 150 (0.72 acre)
• Financial info: Lease not considered

Exterior

• Parking: 2-car garage
• Utilities: Public water; Public sewer; Electricity connected (220 volts)
• Home design: Single family residence (attached property); Two levels
• Construction: Vinyl siding; Architectural shingle roof; House structure
• Exterior features: Back yard; Front yard; City lot

Interior

• Kitchen: Electric cooktop; Electric oven; Dishwasher; Garbage disposal; Refrigerator
• Bedrooms: 5 bedrooms total; 2 bedrooms on the main level; 3 bedrooms on the upper level
• Bathrooms: 2 full bathrooms; 1 half bathroom; 1 full bathroom on the main level; 1 full and 1 half bathroom on the upper level
• Heating & cooling: Electric heating; Central air conditioning
• Interior features: Electric heating; Central air conditioning; Basement (full, unfinished) with block foundation and sump pump; 13 total rooms
• Laundry & utility: Electric water heater

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 5-bed/2.5-bath single-family listed at $97k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $469 ($6k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($1k rent vs $97k).
• Recommended offer: $85k (12.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 63/100 on livability (#772 in IL) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: crime A+, cost of living A+, housing A-; Watch: amenities F, commute F, employment F.
• Pinckneyville Chsd 101 (town): math 25% / reading 30% proficiency, ranked #557 of 919 in IL (top 61%) — low school quality limits family demand, transient renter base, plan for 1-2y turnover.
• Zoned schools: Pinckneyville Comm High School (math 17% / reading 17%, grade F, #430 of 693 statewide, top 66%, 429 students, 0% FRL).
• Market conditions: 33 active listings in the ZIP; 20 units permitted in Perry County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $671 of loan paydown is wiped out by about $3k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Perry County population projected at -19% by 2050 — secular population decline; favor cash flow + early exit over multi-decade hold.
• At projected returns (-3.0% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $27k cash investment doubles in ~6 years — after that, you're playing with house money.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 143 days — a 12% lower offer ($85k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 4 sale attempts since 12y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.
• Current owner paid $55k; list at $97k implies a 76% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.

Risks & watch-outs

• Watch-outs: built in 1885 — expect roof / HVAC / electrical / plumbing capex.
• Climate carrying-cost: extreme-heat days projected 7→22/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $85,360 (12.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 143 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 12% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Built in 1885 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
3. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
4. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
5. Schools are F-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
6. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
7. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
8. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.44% ✓
• Cap rate: 12.09%
• Cash-on-cash: 20.71%
• DSCR: 1.92
• GRM: 5.8

CMA / ARV

• ARV (on-the-fly): $151,800
• Comps found: 2

Show comp detail 2 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
604 W Water St	0.09mi	4/2.5 (-1)	2,262 (-2%)	2mo	$143,000	$63	87
308 E Jackson St	0.50mi	4/2.0 (-1)	1,968 (-14%)	15mo	$130,000	$66	33

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 13.1%
• Equity multiple: 1.52×
• Total profit: $14,137
• Equity at exit: $14,463

10-year hold

• IRR: 21.9%
• Equity multiple: 2.87×
• Total profit: $50,750
• Equity at exit: $8,387

Cash invested: $27,160 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 43 Moderately Tenant-Leaning
• State Illinois: 43 Moderately Tenant-Leaning · D+7
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

Chicago RTLO is among the strongest tenant ordinances in the Midwest; downstate is more landlord-friendly.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 62274

• Home prices YoY: -30.7%
• Active inventory: 33
• Price-to-rent: 5.8×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,396 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$509
• Tax from tax record: −$85 /mo · $1,015/yr
• Insurance: −$40
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$293
• Net cashflow: $469

Break-even live

Break-even rent $802

Max offer price $97,000

Occupancy floor 61%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $524	-5% $496	+0% $469	+5% $441	+10% $414
Rent	-10% $359	-5% $414	+0% $469	+5% $524	+10% $579
Rate	-1.0pp $518	-0.5pp $493	base $469	+0.5pp $444	+1.0pp $418

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $24,250
• Closing costs: $2,910
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Listing history 28 events

1. 2026-06-21
   days on market $97,000 Active 143 DOM
2. 2026-06-21
   days on market $97,000 Active 142 DOM
3. 2026-06-18
   days on market $97,000 Active 140 DOM
4. 2026-06-17
   days on market $97,000 Active 139 DOM
5. 2026-06-16
   days on market $97,000 Active 138 DOM
6. 2026-06-15
   days on market $97,000 Active 137 DOM
7. 2026-06-13
   days on market $97,000 Active 135 DOM
8. 2026-06-12
   remarks 439-char remark
9. 2026-06-12
   days on market $97,000 Active 134 DOM
10. 2026-06-09
    days on market $97,000 Active 131 DOM
11. 2026-06-08
    days on market $97,000 Active 130 DOM
12. 2026-06-07
    days on market $97,000 Active 129 DOM
13. 2026-06-07
    days on market $97,000 Active 128 DOM
14. 2026-06-04
    days on market $97,000 Active 125 DOM
15. 2026-06-02
    days on market $97,000 Active 124 DOM
16. 2026-06-01
    days on market $97,000 Active 123 DOM
17. 2026-05-31
    days on market $97,000 Active 122 DOM
18. 2026-05-31
    days on market $97,000 Active 121 DOM
19. 2026-01-29
    listed $97,000 Active
20. 2025-11-28
    price $102,000
21. 2025-06-28
    listed $112,000 Active
22. 2021-08-06
    historical
23. 2021-08-06
    historical
24. 2015-04-28
    soldstatus
25. 2015-04-28
    soldstatus
26. 2015-04-28
    soldstatus $55,000
27. 2014-12-09
    listed $54,900
28. 2014-12-09
    listed $54,900

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast IL · Partial reset (capped growth)

• Current annual tax: $1,015 · $85/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $1,609 · $134/mo
• Expected delta: +$593/yr (+$49/mo · 58.4%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 1/10 Low
• 🌡 Heat 5/10 Major 7 d/yr ≥107°F today · 22 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 2/10 Low 2% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 1 unhealthy d/yr today · 1 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $16,747
• − Mortgage interest: −$5,434
• − Property taxes: −$1,015
• − Insurance: −$485
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,340
• − Management: −$1,340
• − Depreciation: −$2,822
• Taxable income: $4,311
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$1,035
• After-tax cash flow: $4,591/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Pinckneyville Chsd 101
• NCES district ID: 1731620
• Math proficiency: 25% ▼ -10.00%
• Reading proficiency: 30% ▲ 5.00%
• Median HH income: $43,433
• Composite: 26.43/100
• National rank: #12648
• State rank: #557 of 919 in IL

Livability — Pinckneyville

• Score: 63/100
• State rank: #772
• US rank: #15454

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime A+ Employment F Housing A- Health & safety F User ratings A

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Pinckneyville, IL
• Population (ZIP): 8,147

Population outlook (Perry County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 19,868 people
• By 2030: 19,131 · -3.7%
• By 2040: 17,720 · -10.8%
• By 2050: 16,057 · -19.2%
• By 2075: 11,979 · -39.7%
• By 2100: 8,434 · -57.5%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (78%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 78% Black 14% Hispanic / Latino 6% Two or more races 4% Asian 1%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 6%
• Common ancestry: Romanian 5% Lithuanian 3% Slovak 1%
• Foreign-born: 2% · Canada
• Languages at home: 94% English-only · Spanish 4% Other Indo-European 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Perry

• 2024 margin: Solid R (+52.0) · D 23.2% · R 75.2% · Other 1.6%
• 2008→2024 swing: -48.1pp toward R · 2008: -3.9pp · 2024: -52.0pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+52.0 2020: R+46.7 2016: R+45.1 2012: R+17.7 2008: R+3.9

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -62.13%
• Current HPI: 140.388
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 1.59%
• F500 in state: 60

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in IL)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Insurance	4	$201B
▸Consumer Goods	4	$87B
▸Industrial Machinery	3	$64B
▸Healthcare	2	$55B
▸Retail / Pharmacy	1	$148B
▸Agriculture / Food	1	$86B

Price history

+76.7% since first listed

10 events — show timeline

• 2026-01-29 Listed $97,000 MARIS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2025-11-28 Price Changed $102,000 MARIS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2025-06-28 Listed $112,000 MARIS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2021-08-06 Listing Removed — RMLSA as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2021-08-06 Listing Removed — RMLSA as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2015-04-28 Sold (Public Records) $55,000 Public Records
• 2015-04-28 Sold (MLS) — RMLSA as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2015-04-28 Sold (MLS) — MRED as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2014-12-09 Listed $54,900 RMLSA as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2014-12-09 Listed $54,900 MRED as Distributed by MLS Grid

Property tax history

-5.3%/yr

Latest (2024): $1,015 · +0.0% YoY. Source: county tax records.