2416 Russell St · Houston, TX 77026

$225,000

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,630 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 92 Days on market

Built 1940 5,000 sqft lot $138/sqft · 10% below area Est $249k · 10% under

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Why this score? — see what drove the C- grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +13.3/30.0
• ARV discount +11.8/15.0
• Appreciation +6.9/10.0
• DSCR +4.0/10.0
• 1% rule +3.7/10.0
• Livability +3.7/5.0
• Rent growth +3.3/5.0
• Schools +2.7/10.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0

Listing remarks MLS

Currently occupied by tenant can be delievered with tenant or vacant recently renovated 2 years ago.

Key facts

• 5,000 sq ft lot
• Built 1940
• Listed 91 days

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath single-family listed at $225k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $1 ($15/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $196k (13.0% below list).
• Recommended offer: $196k (13.0% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Cap rate 6.3% vs local median 3.2% in Houston — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 74/100 on livability (#184 in TX, #4,771 nationally) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: amenities A+, cost of living A+, housing A+; Watch: schools D, crime F.
• Houston ISD (urban): math 27% / reading 35% proficiency, ranked #593 of 826 in TX (top 72%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases; 71% free/reduced lunch — lower-income household profile, screen leases tightly.
• Market conditions: Rents rising (+3.1%/yr); 448 active listings in the ZIP; 25 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals lingering (median 45d on market — plan ~5-8 weeks vacancy on turnover, expect pricing pressure); 64% of comp listings sitting > 30 days — soft ceiling on asking rent; lower-income renter base — watch delinquency; 29,883 units permitted in Harris County in 2024 (8,621 in 5+ unit buildings).
• At $1,958/mo this rent would consume 60% of the median local household income ($39k/yr) (locally 1531% of renters already pay >50% of income on rent) — very limited rent-growth headroom before tenants either downsize or default.

Forward outlook

• In year one you build about $10k of equity ($2k loan paydown + $9k appreciation (3.9% local appreciation)).
• Harris County population projected at +47% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.
• At projected returns (3.9% appreciation + 3.1% rent growth), your $63k cash investment doubles in ~6 years — after that, you're playing with house money.
• By year 4, paydown + projected appreciation supports a ~$35k cash-out refi (75% LTV) — recoverable capital for the next deal without selling this one.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 92 days — a 9% lower offer ($205k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 2 sale attempts since 4y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.

Risks & watch-outs

• Watch-outs: built in 1940 — expect roof / HVAC / electrical / plumbing capex.
• Climate carrying-cost: severe wind risk, 99% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→23/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $195,821 (13.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 92 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 13% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Built in 1940 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
3. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
4. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
5. Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
6. Crime grade is F in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
7. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
8. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
9. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.87% ✗
• Cap rate: 6.30%
• Cash-on-cash: 0.02%
• DSCR: 1.00
• GRM: 9.6

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $249,034
• List price: $225,000
• Delta: -9.65%
• Verdict: FAIR
• Comps: 20 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 12 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
3202 Quitman St	0.40mi	3/3.5	1,700 (+4%)	3mo	$355,000	$209	66
4404 Bond St	0.43mi	3/2.5	1,529 (-6%)	3mo	$295,000	$193	65
2906 Brackenridge St	0.64mi	3/2.0	1,600 (-2%)	2mo	$245,000	$153	65
2207 Dan St	0.42mi	3/2.5	1,736 (+6%)	5mo	$339,000	$195	63
3107 Amboy St	0.49mi	3/2.0	1,503 (-8%)	6mo	$280,000	$186	60
3219 Brewster St	0.65mi	3/2.5	1,696 (+4%)	4mo	$319,900	$189	57
2303 Wipprecht St	0.56mi	3/2.5	1,764 (+8%)	2mo	$329,000	$187	56
2709 Davis St	0.74mi	3/2.0	1,547 (-5%)	3mo	$114,900	$74	55
2710 Jensen Creek Ln	0.67mi	3/2.5	1,508 (-8%)	0mo	$299,900	$199	54
3115 Evella St	0.64mi	3/2.0	1,488 (-9%)	2mo	$309,900	$208	54
2507 Des Chaumes St	0.47mi	3/2.5	1,828 (+12%)	3mo	$289,950	$159	54
4305 Engleford St	0.64mi	3/2.0	1,406 (-14%)	2mo	$159,900	$114	46

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

3.89% appreciation · 3.08% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 10.0%
• Equity multiple: 1.61×
• Total profit: $38,179
• Equity at exit: $112,671

10-year hold

• IRR: 12.0%
• Equity multiple: 2.96×
• Total profit: $123,223
• Equity at exit: $183,168

Cash invested: $63,000 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Texas: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+5
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day notice; statewide preemption; one of the fastest eviction climates; Travis County (Austin) slightly slower.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 77026

• Home prices YoY: 1.5%
• Rents YoY: 3.1%
• Active inventory: 448
• Price-to-rent: 9.6×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,958 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,180
• Tax from tax record: −$272 /mo · $3,264/yr
• Insurance: −$94
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$411
• Net cashflow: $1

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,957

Max offer price $225,000

Occupancy floor 95%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $129	-5% $65	+0% $1	+5% $-62	+10% $-126
Rent	-10% $-153	-5% $-76	+0% $1	+5% $79	+10% $156
Rate	-1.0pp $115	-0.5pp $59	base $1	+0.5pp $-57	+1.0pp $-116

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $56,250
• Closing costs: $6,750
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 25 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
4509 Courtney St Houston, TX	4.0	1.0	1456	$1,150	$0.79	23d	1	0.45mi
3730 Lyons Ave Unit 216 Houston, TX	3.0	2.0	1107	$1,300	$1.17	44d	1	0.58mi
4300 Lyons Ave Unit 304 Houston, TX	4.0	2.0	1393	$1,460	$1.05	44d	1	0.61mi
4712 Rawley St Unit B Houston, TX	3.0	2.5	1501	$2,045	$1.36	21d	1	0.63mi
4712 Rawley St Unit a Houston, TX	3.0	2.0	1501	$2,070	$1.38	21d	1	0.63mi
1513 Cage St Houston, TX	3.0	2.0	1467	$1,550	$1.06	44d	1	0.68mi
3300 Lyons Ave Unit 304 Houston, TX	4.0	2.0	1393	$1,460	$1.05	44d	1	0.69mi
5217 Noble St Houston, TX	3.0	2.5	1897	$2,750	$1.45	44d	1	0.83mi
1307 Bayou St Unit B Houston, TX	3.0	3.0	1814	$2,400	$1.32	8d	1	0.88mi
1222 Upton St Houston, TX	3.0	4.0	2055	$2,600	$1.27	44d	1	0.88mi
1303 Bayou St Unit C Houston, TX	3.0	3.0	1869	$3,200	$1.71	44d	1	0.88mi
3503 Wyrick St Houston, TX	3.0	2.5	1746	$2,850	$1.63	44d	1	0.90mi
4109 Hare St Unit A Houston, TX	4.0	2.5	1913	$6,950	$3.63	44d	1	0.99mi
4109 Hare St Unit 1019559P Houston, TX	4.0	2.5	1905	$6,852	$3.60	8d	1	0.99mi
5605 Mulvey St Unit 1019610P Houston, TX	3.0	2.5	1410	$4,376	$3.10	0d	1	1.02mi
2105 Sam Wilson St Houston, TX	3.0	2.5	1416	$6,750	$4.77	44d	1	1.03mi
1714 Mary St Houston, TX	2.0	2.0	1100	$2,400	$2.18	44d	1	1.04mi
3410 Baer St Houston, TX	3.0	4.0	2040	$3,500	$1.72	44d	1	1.14mi
3419 Gillespie St Houston, TX	3.0	3.5	2168	$2,300	$1.06	44d	1	1.16mi
611 Sydnor St Houston, TX	3.0	4.0	2157	$2,400	$1.11	44d	1	1.22mi
2905 Baer St Unit 1047953P Houston, TX	3.0	2.5	1991	$2,922	$1.47	0d	1	1.23mi
308 Grove St Houston, TX	3.0	3.0	1701	$2,350	$1.38	8d	1	1.30mi
4711 Sayers St Unit A Houston, TX	2.0	1.0	1200	$1,650	$1.38	44d	1	1.35mi
3910 Woolworth St Houston, TX	3.0	2.0	1150	$1,750	$1.52	44d	1	1.44mi
1550 Leona St Houston, TX	1.0–2.0	1.0–2.0	835	$1,905	$2.28	2d	19	1.49mi

Listing history 16 events

1. 2026-06-16
   days on market $225,000 Active 92 DOM
2. 2026-06-15
   days on market $225,000 Active 91 DOM
3. 2026-06-13
   days on market $225,000 Active 89 DOM
4. 2026-06-10
   days on market $225,000 Active 85 DOM
5. 2026-06-08
   days on market $225,000 Active 84 DOM
6. 2026-06-07
   days on market $225,000 Active 83 DOM
7. 2026-06-04
   days on market $225,000 Active 80 DOM
8. 2026-06-01
   days on market $225,000 Active 77 DOM
9. 2026-05-31
   days on market $225,000 Active 76 DOM
10. 2026-03-16
    listed $225,000 Active 100-char remark

    Show marketing remark (100 chars)

    Currently occupied by tenant can be delievered with tenant or vacant recently renovated 2 years ago.

11. 2022-10-18
    soldstatus
12. 2022-10-14
    soldstatus Sold 22-char remark

    Show marketing remark (22 chars)

    investment opportunity

13. 2022-10-10
    status Pending 22-char remark

    Show marketing remark (22 chars)

    investment opportunity

14. 2022-10-06
    status Option Pending 22-char remark

    Show marketing remark (22 chars)

    investment opportunity

15. 2022-09-16
    listed $124,000 Active 22-char remark

    Show marketing remark (22 chars)

    investment opportunity

16. 1988-01-02
    soldstatus

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast TX · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $3,264 · $272/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $4,118 · $343/mo
• Expected delta: +$853/yr (+$71/mo · 26.1%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (shaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 1/10 Low
• 🌡 Heat 9/10 Extreme 7 d/yr ≥109°F today · 23 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 9/10 Extreme 99% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 3/10 Moderate 2 unhealthy d/yr today · 3 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $23,499
• − Mortgage interest: −$12,603
• − Property taxes: −$3,264
• − Insurance: −$1,125
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,880
• − Management: −$1,880
• − Depreciation: −$6,545
• Taxable loss: −$3,799
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$912
• After-tax cash flow: $927/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Houston ISD
• NCES district ID: 4823640
• Math proficiency: 27% ▼ -18.00%
• Reading proficiency: 35% ▼ -6.00%
• Median HH income: $46,054
• Composite: 26.63/100
• National rank: #7173
• State rank: #593 of 826 in TX

Livability — Houston

• Score: 74/100
• State rank: #184
• US rank: #4771

Category grades

Amenities A+ Commute A Cost of living A+ Crime F Employment C Housing A+ Health & safety A- User ratings F

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Houston, TX
• County: Harris County · 4,702,590 people
• City population: 3,226,434
• Metro: Houston-The Woodlands-Sugar Land, TX
• Population (ZIP): 21,981
• Household income: $39,211
• Rent vs Own: 56.3% rent · 43.7% own
• Severe rent burden: 1531.0

Population outlook (Harris County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 5,571,493 people
• By 2030: 6,089,821 · +9.3%
• By 2040: 7,142,806 · +28.2%
• By 2050: 8,185,864 · +46.9%
• By 2075: 10,574,329 · +89.8%
• By 2100: 12,109,958 · +117.4%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Diverse neighborhood (Simpson 0.56)
• Race & ethnicity: Black 49% Hispanic / Latino 44% Two or more races 18% White 5% Native American 1%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 34%
• Common ancestry: Lithuanian 1%
• Foreign-born: 15% · Canada
• Languages at home: 61% English-only · Spanish 39%

Political lean MEDSL · Harris

• 2024 margin: Lean D (+5.5) · D 52.0% · R 46.4% · Other 1.6%
• 2008→2024 swing: +3.9pp toward D · 2008: 1.6pp · 2024: 5.5pp
• All cycles: 2024: D+5.5 2020: D+13.3 2016: D+12.4 2012: D+0.1 2008: D+1.6

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▲ 3.89%
• Current HPI: 267.5995
• Rent YoY: ▲ 3.08%
• Metro: Houston-The Woodlands-Sugar Land, TX
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.95%
• F500 in state: 110

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in TX)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Energy	16	$1,198B
▸Technology	5	$198B
▸Engineering / Construction	4	$72B
▸Energy Services	3	$60B
▸Utilities	3	$41B
▸Healthcare	2	$330B

Price history

+81.5% since first listed

7 events — show timeline

• 2026-03-16 Listed $225,000 HARMLS
• 2022-10-18 Sold (Public Records) — Public Records
• 2022-10-14 Sold (MLS) — HARMLS
• 2022-10-10 Pending — HARMLS
• 2022-10-06 Pending — HARMLS
• 2022-09-16 Listed $124,000 HARMLS
• 1988-01-02 Sold (Public Records) — Public Records

Property tax history

+11.4%/yr

Latest (2025): $3,264 · +3.8% YoY. Source: county tax records.