5863 Southgood St · Houston, TX 77033

$149,999

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,652 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 68 Days on market

Built 1947 9,130 sqft lot $91/sqft · at area comps Est $156k · at est.

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Why this score? — see what drove the B- grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +30.0/30.0
• DSCR +10.0/10.0
• ARV discount +9.2/15.0
• 1% rule +7.8/10.0
• Rent growth +3.9/5.0
• Livability +3.7/5.0
• Schools +2.7/10.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

INVESTOR SPECIAL! Spacious property with endless potential—being sold as-is and priced to reflect a fantastic investment opportunity. Ideally located just minutes from NRG Stadium, the Texas Medical Center, and I-610, this home combines convenience with upside potential in a high-demand area. Situated near Downtown Houston, this home sits on a large corner lot with plenty of room for expansion or redevelopment. Whether you’re looking to renovate, build new, or create a duplex for added income potential, this property offers the flexibility to bring your vision to life. Don’t miss your chance to invest in a rapidly growing area with strong upside.

Key facts

• Large corner lot
• Room for expansion
• Redevelopment

Tags

• LARGE CORNER LOT
• ROOM FOR EXPANSION
• REDEVELOPMENT

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath single-family listed at $150k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $595 ($7k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($2k rent vs $150k).
• Recommended offer: $141k (6.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Cap rate 11.1% vs local median 3.2% in Houston — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 74/100 on livability (#184 in TX, #4,771 nationally) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: amenities A+, cost of living A+, housing A+; Watch: schools D, crime F.
• Houston ISD (urban): math 27% / reading 35% proficiency, ranked #593 of 826 in TX (top 72%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases; 71% free/reduced lunch — lower-income household profile, screen leases tightly.
• Market conditions: Rents rising fast (+5.5%/yr); 345 active listings in the ZIP; 38 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 19d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); lower-income renter base — watch delinquency; 29,883 units permitted in Harris County in 2024 (8,621 in 5+ unit buildings).
• At $1,926/mo this rent would consume 61% of the median local household income ($38k/yr) (locally 1728% of renters already pay >50% of income on rent) — very limited rent-growth headroom before tenants either downsize or default.

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $1k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $4k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Harris County population projected at +47% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.
• At projected returns (-3.0% appreciation + 5.5% rent growth), your $42k cash investment doubles in ~7 years — after that, you're playing with house money.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 68 days — a 6% lower offer ($141k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.

Risks & watch-outs

• Watch-outs: built in 1947 — expect roof / HVAC / electrical / plumbing capex.
• Climate carrying-cost: major flood risk; severe wind risk, 99% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→24/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $140,999 (6.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 68 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 6% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Built in 1947 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
3. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
4. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
5. Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
6. Crime grade is F in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
7. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
8. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
9. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.28% ✓
• Cap rate: 11.05%
• Cash-on-cash: 17.00%
• DSCR: 1.76
• GRM: 6.5

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $155,747
• List price: $149,999
• Delta: -3.69%
• Verdict: FAIR
• Comps: 20 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 12 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
6650 Crestridge St	0.28mi	4/2.0 (+1)	1,624 (-2%)	10mo	$175,000	$108	71
5915 Southtown St	0.12mi	4/1.0 (+1)	1,472 (-11%)	4mo	$115,000	$78	64
6718 Crestridge St	0.21mi	3/1.0	1,464 (-11%)	5mo	$194,900	$133	63
5815 Pershing St	0.29mi	3/1.0	1,518 (-8%)	10mo	$80,000	$53	61
6025 Wortham Way	0.64mi	4/2.5 (+1)	1,629 (-1%)	6mo	$225,000	$138	56
5614 Malmedy Rd	0.48mi	4/2.0 (+1)	1,748 (+6%)	10mo	$177,000	$101	54
5715 Willow Glen Dr	0.70mi	3/1.0	1,567 (-5%)	9mo	$175,000	$112	47
5911 Southurst St	0.41mi	4/2.0 (+1)	1,444 (-13%)	10mo	$220,000	$152	47
5978 Southmont St	0.58mi	4/2.5 (+1)	1,520 (-8%)	9mo	$240,000	$158	45
5722 Glenhurst Dr	0.62mi	3/2.0	1,450 (-12%)	7mo	$95,000	$66	44
5730 Doulton Dr	0.58mi	3/2.0	1,450 (-12%)	12mo	$265,000	$183	42
6511 Beekman Rd	0.73mi	4/2.0 (+1)	1,480 (-10%)	10mo	$165,000	$111	36

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 5.45% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 10.8%
• Equity multiple: 1.44×
• Total profit: $18,413
• Equity at exit: $22,365

10-year hold

• IRR: 21.6%
• Equity multiple: 3.04×
• Total profit: $85,657
• Equity at exit: $12,969

Cash invested: $42,000 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Texas: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+5
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day notice; statewide preemption; one of the fastest eviction climates; Travis County (Austin) slightly slower.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 77033

• Home prices YoY: -16.3%
• Rents YoY: 5.5%
• Active inventory: 345
• Price-to-rent: 6.5×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,926 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$787
• Tax from tax record: −$77 /mo · $928/yr
• Insurance: −$62
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$404
• Net cashflow: $595

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,173

Max offer price $149,999

Occupancy floor 64%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $680	-5% $637	+0% $595	+5% $553	+10% $510
Rent	-10% $443	-5% $519	+0% $595	+5% $671	+10% $747
Rate	-1.0pp $671	-0.5pp $633	base $595	+0.5pp $556	+1.0pp $517

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $37,500
• Closing costs: $4,500
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 38 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
6850 Southbank St Unit A Houston, TX	3.0	3.0	2000	$2,200	$1.10	5d	1	0.12mi
6850 Southbank St Unit A Houston, TX	3.0	3.0	2000	$2,200	$1.10	6d	1	0.12mi
5954 Doolittle Blvd Houston, TX	3.0	2.0	1371	$1,575	$1.15	45d	1	0.24mi
5835 Southmont St Houston, TX	3.0	2.0	1200	$1,700	$1.42	45d	1	0.45mi
5317 Chennault Rd Unit A Houston, TX	3.0	2.5	1608	$1,849	$1.15	0d	1	0.47mi
5818 Glenhurst Dr Houston, TX	3.0	2.0	1441	$1,750	$1.21	0d	1	0.63mi
5314 Longmeadow St Houston, TX	3.0	3.0	1646	$1,900	$1.15	45d	1	0.74mi
5942 Ridgeway Dr Houston, TX	4.0	2.0	1490	$2,250	$1.51	45d	1	0.79mi
4942 Bataan Rd Unit 77033 Houston, TX	4.0	2.0	1350	$1,800	$1.33	45d	1	0.83mi
7358 Guadalcanal Rd Houston, TX	3.0	3.0	1768	$2,195	$1.24	45d	1	0.95mi
5514 Griggs Rd Unit 2187 Houston, TX	2.0	2.0	1322	$1,174	$0.89	0d	1	0.95mi
5514 Griggs Rd Unit 5571 Houston, TX	2.0	2.0	1322	$1,214	$0.92	12d	1	0.95mi
5514 Griggs Rd Unit 422 Houston, TX	2.0	2.0	1322	$1,190	$0.90	9d	1	0.95mi
5514 Griggs Rd Unit 2165 Houston, TX	2.0	2.0	1322	$1,215	$0.92	0d	1	0.95mi
5514 Griggs Rd Unit 2162 Houston, TX	2.0	2.0	1322	$1,190	$0.90	6d	1	0.95mi
5514 Griggs Rd Houston, TX	2.0	2.0	1322	$1,210	$0.92	45d	1	0.97mi
5623 Bellfort St Houston, TX	4.0	1.0	1320	$1,700	$1.29	16d	1	1.02mi
5222 Northridge Dr Houston, TX	4.0	2.0	1300	$1,850	$1.42	25d	1	1.02mi
5514 Griggs Rd Unit 2047 Houston, TX	2.0	2.0	1322	$1,225	$0.93	12d	1	1.03mi
5514 Griggs Rd Unit 2047 Houston, TX	2.0	2.0	1322	$1,214	$0.92	4d	1	1.03mi
7710 Darnay Dr Houston, TX	3.0	3.0	1635	$2,095	$1.28	45d	1	1.04mi
5767 Belcrest St Houston, TX	4.0	2.0	1480	$1,790	$1.21	45d	1	1.04mi
5123 Dewberry St Houston, TX	4.0	2.0	1391	$2,400	$1.73	45d	1	1.05mi
5520 Griggs Rd Houston, TX	2.0	2.0	1322	$1,241	$0.94	45d	1	1.06mi
5520 Griggs Rd Houston, TX	2.0	2.0	1322	$1,241	$0.94	23d	1	1.06mi
6528 Weston St Unit A Houston, TX	3.0	3.0	1484	$2,200	$1.48	0d	1	1.16mi
6528 Weston St Unit A Houston, TX	3.0	3.0	1484	$2,200	$1.48	45d	1	1.16mi
6532 Weston St Unit A Houston, TX	3.0	3.0	1484	$2,200	$1.48	19d	1	1.17mi
4705 Idaho St Houston, TX	3.0	2.5	1664	$2,500	$1.50	18d	1	1.23mi
5154 Griggs Rd Unit CAVE Houston, TX	2.0	2.0	1322	$1,420	$1.07	4d	1	1.26mi
5116 Griggs Rd Houston, TX	3.0	2.0	1131	$1,316	$1.16	45d	1	1.27mi
6926 Paris St Houston, TX	3.0	2.0	1276	$1,900	$1.49	0d	1	1.31mi
6928 Paris St Houston, TX	3.0	2.0	1276	$1,900	$1.49	0d	1	1.31mi
6109 Wayland St Houston, TX	4.0	2.0	1600	$1,595	$1.00	0d	1	1.34mi
6731 New York St Houston, TX	3.0	3.0	2211	$2,100	$0.95	45d	1	1.35mi
6419 Belarbor St Houston, TX	3.0	1.0	1240	$1,425	$1.15	45d	1	1.42mi
8107 Calhoun Rd Houston, TX	3.0	2.5	1304	$2,250	$1.73	25d	1	1.49mi
4835 Sunflower St Unit 1546466P Houston, TX	3.0	2.0	1883	$4,516	$2.40	16d	1	1.49mi

Listing history 15 events

1. 2026-06-21
   days on market $149,999 Active 68 DOM
2. 2026-06-18
   days on market $149,999 Active 65 DOM
3. 2026-06-17
   days on market $149,999 Active 64 DOM
4. 2026-06-16
   days on market $149,999 Active 63 DOM
5. 2026-06-15
   days on market $149,999 Active 62 DOM
6. 2026-06-13
   days on market $149,999 Active 60 DOM
7. 2026-06-10
   days on market $149,999 Active 56 DOM
8. 2026-06-08
   days on market $149,999 Active 55 DOM
9. 2026-06-07
   days on market $149,999 Active 54 DOM
10. 2026-06-04
    days on market $149,999 Active 51 DOM
11. 2026-06-01
    days on market $149,999 Active 48 DOM
12. 2026-05-31
    days on market $149,999 Active 47 DOM
13. 2026-04-14
    listed $149,999 Active 672-char remark

    Show marketing remark (672 chars)

    INVESTOR SPECIAL! Spacious property with endless potential—being sold as-is and priced to reflect a fantastic investment opportunity. Ideally located just minutes from NRG Stadium, the Texas Medical Center, and I-610, this home combines convenience with upside potential in a high-demand area. Situated near Downtown Houston, this home sits on a large corner lot with plenty of room for expansion or redevelopment. Whether you’re looking to renovate, build new, or create a duplex for added income potential, this property offers the flexibility to bring your vision to life. Don’t miss your chance to invest in a rapidly growing area with strong upside.

14. 2013-04-08
    soldstatus
15. 1998-09-05
    soldstatus

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast TX · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $928 · $77/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $2,745 · $229/mo
• Expected delta: +$1,817/yr (+$151/mo · 195.9%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 6/10 Major FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 71% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 1/10 Low
• 🌡 Heat 9/10 Extreme 7 d/yr ≥109°F today · 24 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 9/10 Extreme 99% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 2 unhealthy d/yr today · 2 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $23,110
• − Mortgage interest: −$8,402
• − Property taxes: −$928
• − Insurance: −$750
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,849
• − Management: −$1,849
• − Depreciation: −$4,364
• Taxable income: $4,969
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$1,192
• After-tax cash flow: $5,947/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Houston ISD
• NCES district ID: 4823640
• Math proficiency: 27% ▼ -18.00%
• Reading proficiency: 35% ▼ -6.00%
• Median HH income: $46,054
• Composite: 26.63/100
• National rank: #7173
• State rank: #593 of 826 in TX

Livability — Houston

• Score: 74/100
• State rank: #184
• US rank: #4771

Category grades

Amenities A+ Commute A Cost of living A+ Crime F Employment C Housing A+ Health & safety A- User ratings F

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Houston, TX
• County: Harris County · 4,702,590 people
• City population: 3,226,434
• Metro: Houston-The Woodlands-Sugar Land, TX
• Population (ZIP): 29,154
• Household income: $38,071
• Rent vs Own: 41.0% rent · 59.0% own
• Severe rent burden: 1728.0

Population outlook (Harris County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 5,571,493 people
• By 2030: 6,089,821 · +9.3%
• By 2040: 7,142,806 · +28.2%
• By 2050: 8,185,864 · +46.9%
• By 2075: 10,574,329 · +89.8%
• By 2100: 12,109,958 · +117.4%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Majority Black (55%)
• Race & ethnicity: Black 55% Hispanic / Latino 43% Two or more races 17% Native American 1%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 35%
• Common ancestry: Lithuanian 1%
• Foreign-born: 18% · Canada
• Languages at home: 61% English-only · Spanish 39%

Political lean MEDSL · Harris

• 2024 margin: Lean D (+5.5) · D 52.0% · R 46.4% · Other 1.6%
• 2008→2024 swing: +3.9pp toward D · 2008: 1.6pp · 2024: 5.5pp
• All cycles: 2024: D+5.5 2020: D+13.3 2016: D+12.4 2012: D+0.1 2008: D+1.6

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -41.49%
• Current HPI: 212.6472
• Rent YoY: ▲ 5.45%
• Metro: Houston-The Woodlands-Sugar Land, TX
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.95%
• F500 in state: 110

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in TX)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Energy	16	$1,198B
▸Technology	5	$198B
▸Engineering / Construction	4	$72B
▸Energy Services	3	$60B
▸Utilities	3	$41B
▸Healthcare	2	$330B

Price history

3 events — show timeline

• 2026-04-14 Listed $149,999 HARMLS
• 2013-04-08 Sold (Public Records) — Public Records
• 1998-09-05 Sold (Public Records) — Public Records

Property tax history

+5.2%/yr

Latest (2025): $928 · +11.7% YoY. Source: county tax records.