221 Clayton Dr · Denison, TX 75076

$145,000

2 bd · 1.0 ba · 1,100 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 216 Days on market

Built 1987 0.34 ac lot $132/sqft · 42% below area Est $252k · 42% under $8/mo HOA · 1% of rent ↓ 27% since listing

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Why this score? — see what drove the C grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +18.5/30.0
• ARV discount +15.0/15.0
• DSCR +5.8/10.0
• 1% rule +4.8/10.0
• Schools +3.7/10.0
• Livability +3.7/5.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

Price Reduction Just in in for Start of Summer!! LAKE TEXOMA closeby...Escape to the serenity of lake life with this charming 2-bedroom, 1-bath log cabin nestled in the sought-after Simmons Shores community. Perfectly positioned just minutes from the lake and a short drive to Highport Marina, this cabin is ideal as a weekend getaway, a cozy full-time home, or a fantastic potential short-term rental opportunity. Set on a lush, tree-filled lot, the home exudes rustic charm with its warm wood interiors, wood-burning stove, and tranquil ambiance. Outside, enjoy a range of community amenities including a pool, boat ramp, and a fishing pier—everything you need to unwind and enjoy the water. Whether you're seeking a peaceful retreat or a profitable investment property, this Simmons Shores cabin offers the best of both worlds! This home has potential for someone with vision. Cash offers only.

Key facts

• Wood interiors
• Community amenities
• Pool

Tags

• SIMMONS SHORES COMMUNITY
• WOOD INTERIORS
• WOOD BURNING STOVE
• COMMUNITY AMENITIES
• POOL
• BOAT RAMP

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 2-bed/1.0-bath single-family listed at $145k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $138 ($2k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $142k (2.0% below list).
• Recommended offer: $128k (12.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Cap rate 7.4% vs local median 3.8% in Denison — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 73/100 on livability (#221 in TX) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+, crime A; Watch: health & safety D+, schools D-, amenities F.
• Pottsboro ISD (suburban): math 39% / reading 48% proficiency, ranked #288 of 826 in TX (top 35%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Market conditions: 292 active listings in the ZIP; solid renter incomes; 2,272 units permitted in Grayson County in 2024 (750 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $1k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $4k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Grayson County population projected at +12% by 2050 — modest demand growth; plan on rents tracking national, not racing it.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 216 days — a 12% lower offer ($128k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 3 sale attempts with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: extreme-heat days projected 7→21/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $127,600 (12.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 216 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 12% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
3. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
4. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
5. Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
6. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
7. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
8. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.98% ✗
• Cap rate: 7.43%
• Cash-on-cash: 4.07%
• DSCR: 1.18
• GRM: 8.5

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $251,504
• List price: $145,000
• Delta: -42.35%
• Verdict: UNDERPRICED
• Comps: 17 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 5 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
290 Ila Dr	0.10mi	1/1.0 (-1)	1,080 (-2%)	11mo	$225,000	$208	78
151 Clayton Dr	0.07mi	3/2.0 (+1)	1,152 (+5%)	17mo	$299,900	$260	66
458 Maple Dr	0.35mi	3/2.0 (+1)	1,152 (+5%)	5mo	$270,000	$234	63
222 Maple Dr	0.38mi	3/2.0 (+1)	1,152 (+5%)	12mo	$239,500	$208	56
82343 N State Hwy 289	0.48mi	3/2.0 (+1)	1,248 (+14%)	22mo	$216,000	$173	28

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -9.9%
• Equity multiple: 0.64×
• Total profit: $-14,712
• Equity at exit: $21,620

10-year hold

• IRR: -0.5%
• Equity multiple: 0.96×
• Total profit: $-1,469
• Equity at exit: $12,537

Cash invested: $40,600 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Texas: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+5
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day notice; statewide preemption; one of the fastest eviction climates; Travis County (Austin) slightly slower.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 75076

• Home prices YoY: -17.3%
• Active inventory: 292
• Price-to-rent: 8.5×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,421 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$760
• Tax from tax record: −$156 /mo · $1,871/yr
• Insurance: −$60
• HOA: −$8
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$298
• Net cashflow: $138

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,246

Max offer price $145,000

Occupancy floor 85%

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $36,250
• Closing costs: $4,350
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

HOA detail

• Monthly dues: $8 · $96/yr
• Likely covers: waterpool

Listing history 26 events

1. 2026-06-19
   days on market $145,000 Active 216 DOM
2. 2026-06-18
   days on market $145,000 Active 215 DOM
3. 2026-06-17
   days on market $145,000 Active 214 DOM
4. 2026-06-16
   days on market $145,000 Active 213 DOM
5. 2026-06-15
   days on market $145,000 Active 212 DOM
6. 2026-06-14
   days on market $145,000 Active 210 DOM
7. 2026-06-13
   days on market $145,000 Active 209 DOM
8. 2026-06-10
   days on market $145,000 Active 207 DOM
9. 2026-06-09
   days on market $145,000 Active 206 DOM
10. 2026-06-08
    days on market $145,000 Active 205 DOM
11. 2026-06-07
    days on market $145,000 Active 204 DOM
12. 2026-06-03
    days on market $145,000 Active 200 DOM
13. 2026-06-02
    days on market $145,000 Active 199 DOM
14. 2026-06-01
    days on market $145,000 Active 198 DOM
15. 2026-05-31
    days on market $145,000 Active 197 DOM
16. 2026-05-30
    days on market $145,000 Active 196 DOM
17. 2026-04-28
    price $145,000 906-char remark

    Show marketing remark (906 chars)

    Price Reduction Just in in for Start of Summer!! LAKE TEXOMA closeby...Escape to the serenity of lake life with this charming 2-bedroom, 1-bath log cabin nestled in the sought-after Simmons Shores community. Perfectly positioned just minutes from the lake and a short drive to Highport Marina, this cabin is ideal as a weekend getaway, a cozy full-time home, or a fantastic potential short-term rental opportunity. Set on a lush, tree-filled lot, the home exudes rustic charm with its warm wood interiors, wood-burning stove, and tranquil ambiance. Outside, enjoy a range of community amenities including a pool, boat ramp, and a fishing pier—everything you need to unwind and enjoy the water. Whether you're seeking a peaceful retreat or a profitable investment property, this Simmons Shores cabin offers the best of both worlds! This home has potential for someone with vision. Cash offers only.

18. 2026-04-27
    price $149,990 906-char remark

    Show marketing remark (906 chars)

    Price Reduction Just in in for Start of Summer!! LAKE TEXOMA closeby...Escape to the serenity of lake life with this charming 2-bedroom, 1-bath log cabin nestled in the sought-after Simmons Shores community. Perfectly positioned just minutes from the lake and a short drive to Highport Marina, this cabin is ideal as a weekend getaway, a cozy full-time home, or a fantastic potential short-term rental opportunity. Set on a lush, tree-filled lot, the home exudes rustic charm with its warm wood interiors, wood-burning stove, and tranquil ambiance. Outside, enjoy a range of community amenities including a pool, boat ramp, and a fishing pier—everything you need to unwind and enjoy the water. Whether you're seeking a peaceful retreat or a profitable investment property, this Simmons Shores cabin offers the best of both worlds! This home has potential for someone with vision. Cash offers only.

19. 2025-12-16
    status Active 906-char remark

    Show marketing remark (906 chars)

    Price Reduction Just in in for Start of Summer!! LAKE TEXOMA closeby...Escape to the serenity of lake life with this charming 2-bedroom, 1-bath log cabin nestled in the sought-after Simmons Shores community. Perfectly positioned just minutes from the lake and a short drive to Highport Marina, this cabin is ideal as a weekend getaway, a cozy full-time home, or a fantastic potential short-term rental opportunity. Set on a lush, tree-filled lot, the home exudes rustic charm with its warm wood interiors, wood-burning stove, and tranquil ambiance. Outside, enjoy a range of community amenities including a pool, boat ramp, and a fishing pier—everything you need to unwind and enjoy the water. Whether you're seeking a peaceful retreat or a profitable investment property, this Simmons Shores cabin offers the best of both worlds! This home has potential for someone with vision. Cash offers only.

20. 2025-12-09
    historical Active Option Contract 906-char remark

    Show marketing remark (906 chars)

    Price Reduction Just in in for Start of Summer!! LAKE TEXOMA closeby...Escape to the serenity of lake life with this charming 2-bedroom, 1-bath log cabin nestled in the sought-after Simmons Shores community. Perfectly positioned just minutes from the lake and a short drive to Highport Marina, this cabin is ideal as a weekend getaway, a cozy full-time home, or a fantastic potential short-term rental opportunity. Set on a lush, tree-filled lot, the home exudes rustic charm with its warm wood interiors, wood-burning stove, and tranquil ambiance. Outside, enjoy a range of community amenities including a pool, boat ramp, and a fishing pier—everything you need to unwind and enjoy the water. Whether you're seeking a peaceful retreat or a profitable investment property, this Simmons Shores cabin offers the best of both worlds! This home has potential for someone with vision. Cash offers only.

21. 2025-11-15
    listed $149,999 Active 906-char remark

    Show marketing remark (906 chars)

    Price Reduction Just in in for Start of Summer!! LAKE TEXOMA closeby...Escape to the serenity of lake life with this charming 2-bedroom, 1-bath log cabin nestled in the sought-after Simmons Shores community. Perfectly positioned just minutes from the lake and a short drive to Highport Marina, this cabin is ideal as a weekend getaway, a cozy full-time home, or a fantastic potential short-term rental opportunity. Set on a lush, tree-filled lot, the home exudes rustic charm with its warm wood interiors, wood-burning stove, and tranquil ambiance. Outside, enjoy a range of community amenities including a pool, boat ramp, and a fishing pier—everything you need to unwind and enjoy the water. Whether you're seeking a peaceful retreat or a profitable investment property, this Simmons Shores cabin offers the best of both worlds! This home has potential for someone with vision. Cash offers only.

22. 2025-09-06
    historical
23. 2025-08-26
    price $159,999
24. 2025-06-06
    price $175,000
25. 2025-04-17
    listed $198,500 Active
26. 1989-02-25
    soldstatus

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast TX · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $1,871 · $156/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $2,654 · $221/mo
• Expected delta: +$783/yr (+$65/mo · 41.8%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 4/10 Moderate
• 🌡 Heat 6/10 Major 7 d/yr ≥108°F today · 21 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 4/10 Moderate 17% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 3/10 Moderate 3 unhealthy d/yr today · 3 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $17,050
• − Mortgage interest: −$8,122
• − Property taxes: −$1,871
• − Insurance: −$725
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,364
• − Management: −$1,364
• − HOA: −$96
• − Depreciation: −$4,218
• Taxable loss: −$710
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$170
• After-tax cash flow: $1,823/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Pottsboro ISD
• NCES district ID: 4835580
• Math proficiency: 39% ▼ -11.00%
• Reading proficiency: 48% ▼ -6.00%
• Median HH income: $50,811
• Composite: 37.44/100
• National rank: #4414
• State rank: #288 of 826 in TX

Livability — Denison

• Score: 73/100
• State rank: #221
• US rank: #5428

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime A Employment D- Housing A+ Health & safety D+ User ratings A+

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• County: Grayson County · 108,053 people
• City population: 34,008
• Metro: Sherman-Denison, TX
• Population (ZIP): 7,989
• Household income: $76,919
• Rent vs Own: 18.2% rent · 81.8% own
• Severe rent burden: 169.0

Population outlook (Grayson County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 134,540 people
• By 2030: 138,653 · +3.1%
• By 2040: 145,958 · +8.5%
• By 2050: 151,218 · +12.4%
• By 2075: 161,802 · +20.3%
• By 2100: 159,036 · +18.2%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (88%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 88% Two or more races 7% Hispanic / Latino 3% Asian 1% Native American 1%
• Common ancestry: Serbian 2% Scottish 2% Scotch-Irish 2%
• Foreign-born: 2% · Canada
• Languages at home: 95% English-only · Spanish 3%

Political lean MEDSL · Grayson

• 2024 margin: Solid R (+54.3) · D 22.5% · R 76.7%
• 2008→2024 swing: -16.4pp toward R · 2008: -37.9pp · 2024: -54.3pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+54.3 2020: R+49.9 2016: R+53.1 2012: R+48.0 2008: R+37.9

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -51.29%
• Current HPI: 244.52
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: Sherman-Denison, TX
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.95%
• F500 in state: 110

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in TX)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Energy	16	$1,198B
▸Technology	5	$198B
▸Engineering / Construction	4	$72B
▸Energy Services	3	$60B
▸Utilities	3	$41B
▸Healthcare	2	$330B

Price history

-27.0% since first listed

10 events — show timeline

• 2026-04-28 Price Changed $145,000 NTREIS
• 2026-04-27 Price Changed $149,990 NTREIS
• 2025-12-16 Relisted — NTREIS
• 2025-12-09 Contingent — NTREIS
• 2025-11-15 Listed $149,999 NTREIS
• 2025-09-06 Listing Removed — NTREIS
• 2025-08-26 Price Changed $159,999 NTREIS
• 2025-06-06 Price Changed $175,000 NTREIS
• 2025-04-17 Listed $198,500 NTREIS
• 1989-02-25 Sold (Public Records) — Public Records

Property tax history

+3.6%/yr

Latest (2025): $1,871 · +10.0% YoY. Source: county tax records.