1930 N Alpine Rd · Rockford, IL 61107

$199,900

4 bd · 2.0 ba · 2,240 sqft · SingleFamily · 23 Days on market

Built 1959 0.37 ac lot Est $264k · 24% under

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Why this score? — see what drove the B grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +28.8/30.0
• ARV discount +15.0/15.0
• DSCR +10.0/10.0
• 1% rule +8.7/10.0
• Rent growth +4.0/5.0
• Livability +3.1/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Schools +1.2/10.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

This inviting home offers a perfect blend of character, comfort, and convenience with easy access to shopping, dining, parks, schools, and all the amenities Rockford has to offer. Inside, you'll find a spacious and functional layout featuring comfortable living areas filled with natural light, generously sized bedrooms. The kitchen offers ample cabinet and counter space plus a HUGE tandem storage room! Outside, enjoy a nicely sized yard Conveniently situated on a prominent location of North Alpine Road, this property offers excellent accessibility while still maintaining the feel of home. Whether you're a first-time buyer, looking to downsize, or searching for an investment opportunity, this home offers location, and potential all in one package.

Key facts

• Nicely sized yard
• Finished flex room
• 0.37 acre lot

Tags

• FINISHED FLEX ROOM
• HUGE TANDEM STORAGE ROOM
• NICELY SIZED YARD
• NORTH ALPINE ROAD LOCATION

Property features AI

Exterior

• Parking: Attached 2-car garage
• Utilities: Public water; Public sewer
• Home design: Single-family residence; One story
• Construction: House construction
• Exterior features: Shingle roof; 0.37-acre lot

Interior

• Kitchen: Gas cooktop; Oven; Dishwasher; Refrigerator; Garbage disposal
• Bathrooms: Two full bathrooms; One main-level bathroom
• Heating & cooling: Forced air heating; Natural gas
• Interior features: Gas cooktop; Dishwasher; Garbage disposal; Electric water heater; Full finished basement with sump pump
• Laundry & utility: Washer; Dryer

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 4-bed/2.0-bath single-family listed at $200k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $670 ($8k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($3k rent vs $200k).
• Recommended offer: $197k (1.5% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Cap rate 10.3% vs local median 6.1% in Rockford — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 62/100 on livability (#876 in IL) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+, health & safety A+; Watch: crime F, amenities F, commute F.
• Rockford SD 205 (urban): math 12% / reading 16% proficiency, ranked #533 of 620 in IL (top 86%) — low school quality limits family demand, transient renter base, plan for 1-2y turnover; 73% free/reduced lunch — lower-income household profile, screen leases tightly.
• Zoned schools: Clifford P Carlson Elem School (math 12% / reading 12%, grade F, #1,403 of 2,056 statewide, top 71%, 347 students, 0% FRL); Eisenhower Middle School (math 9% / reading 17%, grade F, #540 of 665 statewide, top 82%, 961 students, 0% FRL); Guilford High School (math 15% / reading 28%, grade F, #345 of 693 statewide, top 50%, 2,071 students, 0% FRL) — zoned schools average 0% FRL vs 73% district-wide (73 pts lower); this property's tenant base skews higher-income than the district average.
• Market conditions: Rents rising fast (+5.9%/yr); 151 active listings in the ZIP; 4 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals lingering (median 44d on market — plan ~5-8 weeks vacancy on turnover, expect pricing pressure); 50% of comp listings sitting > 30 days — soft ceiling on asking rent; solid renter incomes; 285 units permitted in Winnebago County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).
• This rent runs 42% of the median local income ($79k/yr) — at the standard rent-burdened threshold; future hikes will face affordability resistance.

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $1k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $6k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Winnebago County population projected at -20% by 2050 — secular population decline; favor cash flow + early exit over multi-decade hold.
• At projected returns (-3.0% appreciation + 5.9% rent growth), your $56k cash investment doubles in ~7 years — after that, you're playing with house money.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 23 days — a 2% lower offer ($197k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 5 sale attempts since 11y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.

Risks & watch-outs

• Watch-outs: built in 1959 — expect roof / HVAC / electrical / plumbing capex.

Recommended offer $196,901 (1.5% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. Built in 1959 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
2. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
3. Schools are F-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
4. Crime grade is F in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
5. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
6. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
7. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.37% ✓
• Cap rate: 10.31%
• Cash-on-cash: 14.36%
• DSCR: 1.64
• GRM: 6.1

CMA / ARV

• ARV (on-the-fly): $264,320
• Comps found: 12

Show comp detail 12 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
4212 Pinecrest Rd	0.11mi	3/2.0 (-1)	2,102 (-6%)	6mo	$224,900	$107	75
4966 Brigadoon Rd	0.57mi	4/2.5	2,313 (+3%)	2mo	$310,000	$134	64
4609 Brookview Dr	0.29mi	4/3.0	2,492 (+11%)	0mo	$295,000	$118	63
1825 Edgebrook Dr	0.51mi	3/2.0 (-1)	2,280 (+2%)	6mo	$260,000	$114	63
5103 Brookview Rd	0.66mi	4/3.0	2,200 (-2%)	0mo	$295,000	$134	62
2180 Stornway Dr	0.56mi	3/2.0 (-1)	2,254 (+1%)	8mo	$281,500	$125	62
2020 Glenview Rd	0.48mi	3/2.0 (-1)	2,439 (+9%)	5mo	$300,999	$123	54
2020 Valley Rd	0.39mi	3/2.5 (-1)	2,476 (+10%)	4mo	$285,000	$115	53
1224 Bedford Ln	0.57mi	5/2.0 (+1)	2,368 (+6%)	8mo	$262,000	$111	52
5226 Arbutus Rd	0.72mi	3/2.0 (-1)	2,113 (-6%)	4mo	$250,000	$118	48
4015 Coventry Dr	0.74mi	4/2.5	2,408 (+8%)	8mo	$299,999	$125	45
5131 Potomac Dr	0.70mi	3/2.5 (-1)	2,572 (+15%)	6mo	$296,000	$115	31

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 5.92% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 8.2%
• Equity multiple: 1.33×
• Total profit: $18,646
• Equity at exit: $29,806

10-year hold

• IRR: 19.9%
• Equity multiple: 2.92×
• Total profit: $107,643
• Equity at exit: $17,284

Cash invested: $55,972 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 43 Moderately Tenant-Leaning
• State Illinois: 43 Moderately Tenant-Leaning · D+7
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

Chicago RTLO is among the strongest tenant ordinances in the Midwest; downstate is more landlord-friendly.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 61107

• Home prices YoY: -20.1%
• Rents YoY: 5.9%
• Active inventory: 151
• Price-to-rent: 6.1×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $2,735 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,048
• Tax from tax record: −$359 /mo · $4,311/yr
• Insurance: −$83
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$574
• Net cashflow: $670

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,887

Max offer price $199,900

Occupancy floor 71%

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $49,975
• Closing costs: $5,997
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 4 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
4016 Eaton Dr Unit 1232695P Rockford, IL	3.0	3.0	1722	$4,169	$2.42	13d	1	0.98mi
3121 Carefree Dr Rockford, IL	4.0	2.5	3000	$2,800	$0.93	43d	1	1.13mi
4300 Eastridge Dr Unit 1 Rockford, IL	3.0	2.0	1500	$1,575	$1.05	13d	1	1.24mi
5746 Berwick Pl Rockford, IL	3.0	3.0	2030	$3,000	$1.48	43d	1	1.40mi

Listing history 27 events

1. 2026-06-19
   days on market $199,900 Active 23 DOM
2. 2026-06-18
   days on market $199,900 Active 22 DOM
3. 2026-06-17
   days on market $199,900 Active 21 DOM
4. 2026-06-16
   days on market $199,900 Active 20 DOM
5. 2026-06-15
   days on market $199,900 Active 19 DOM
6. 2026-06-14
   days on market $199,900 Active 17 DOM
7. 2026-06-13
   days on market $199,900 Active 16 DOM
8. 2026-06-10
   days on market $199,900 Active 14 DOM
9. 2026-06-09
   days on market $199,900 Active 13 DOM
10. 2026-06-08
    days on market $199,900 Active 12 DOM
11. 2026-06-07
    days on market $199,900 Active 11 DOM
12. 2026-06-03
    days on market $199,900 Active 7 DOM
13. 2026-06-02
    days on market $199,900 Active 6 DOM
14. 2026-06-01
    days on market $199,900 Active 5 DOM
15. 2026-05-31
    days on market $199,900 Active 4 DOM
16. 2026-05-30
    days on market $199,900 Active 3 DOM
17. 2026-05-27
    listed $199,900 Active

    Show marketing remark (760 chars)

    This inviting home offers a perfect blend of character, comfort, and convenience with easy access to shopping, dining, parks, schools, and all the amenities Rockford has to offer. Inside, you'll find a spacious and functional layout featuring comfortable living areas filled with natural light, generously sized bedrooms. The kitchen offers ample cabinet and counter space plus a HUGE tandem storage room! Outside, enjoy a nicely sized yard Conveniently situated on a prominent location of North Alpine Road, this property offers excellent accessibility while still maintaining the feel of home. Whether you're a first-time buyer, looking to downsize, or searching for an investment opportunity, this home offers location, and potential all in one package.

18. 2026-05-27
    listed $199,900 Active 760-char remark

    Show marketing remark (760 chars)

    This inviting home offers a perfect blend of character, comfort, and convenience with easy access to shopping, dining, parks, schools, and all the amenities Rockford has to offer. Inside, you'll find a spacious and functional layout featuring comfortable living areas filled with natural light, generously sized bedrooms. The kitchen offers ample cabinet and counter space plus a HUGE tandem storage room! Outside, enjoy a nicely sized yard Conveniently situated on a prominent location of North Alpine Road, this property offers excellent accessibility while still maintaining the feel of home. Whether you're a first-time buyer, looking to downsize, or searching for an investment opportunity, this home offers location, and potential all in one package.

19. 2023-08-04
    soldstatus $185,000 Closed
20. 2023-07-05
    status Pending
21. 2023-06-30
    listed $179,900 Active
22. 2022-01-28
    soldstatus $136,500
23. 2021-11-29
    listed $134,900
24. 2016-02-29
    soldstatus $29,000
25. 2015-09-30
    listed $39,200
26. 2000-10-20
    soldstatus $79,000
27. 2000-07-03
    soldstatus $55,000

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast IL · Partial reset (capped growth)

• Current annual tax: $4,311 · $359/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $4,424 · $369/mo
• Expected delta: +$113/yr (+$9/mo · 2.6%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 1/10 Low
• 🌡 Heat 2/10 Low 7 d/yr ≥101°F today · 15 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 2/10 Low
• 🫁 Air quality 3/10 Moderate 2 unhealthy d/yr today · 3 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $32,820
• − Mortgage interest: −$11,198
• − Property taxes: −$4,311
• − Insurance: −$1,000
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$2,626
• − Management: −$2,626
• − Depreciation: −$5,815
• Taxable income: $5,245
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$1,259
• After-tax cash flow: $6,779/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Rockford SD 205
• NCES district ID: 1734510
• Math proficiency: 12% ▼ -2.00%
• Reading proficiency: 16% ▼ -3.00%
• Median HH income: $42,533
• Composite: 12.21/100
• National rank: #9649
• State rank: #533 of 620 in IL

Livability — Rockford

• Score: 62/100
• State rank: #876
• US rank: #17035

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime F Employment F Housing A+ Health & safety A+ User ratings F

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• County: Winnebago County · 147,297 people
• City population: 147,297
• Metro: Rockford, IL
• Population (ZIP): 30,765
• Household income: $78,574
• Rent vs Own: 28.9% rent · 71.1% own
• Severe rent burden: 981.0

Population outlook (Winnebago County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 271,080 people
• By 2030: 260,684 · -3.8%
• By 2040: 238,405 · -12.1%
• By 2050: 216,129 · -20.3%
• By 2075: 172,882 · -36.2%
• By 2100: 135,336 · -50.1%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (68%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 68% Hispanic / Latino 15% Black 9% Two or more races 9% Asian 4% Native American 1%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 11% Puerto Rican 1%
• Common ancestry: Romanian 6% Portuguese 4% Lithuanian 2%
• Foreign-born: 10% · Canada, China
• Languages at home: 83% English-only · Spanish 11% Arabic 1% Other Indo-European 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Winnebago

• 2024 margin: Toss-up / Even · D 49.5% · R 49.0% · Other 1.5%
• 2008→2024 swing: -12.2pp toward R · 2008: 12.8pp · 2024: 0.6pp
• All cycles: 2024: D+0.6 2020: D+2.5 2016: R+1.2 2012: D+5.7 2008: D+12.8

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -62.46%
• Current HPI: 248.8598
• Rent YoY: ▲ 5.92%
• Metro: Rockford, IL
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 1.59%
• F500 in state: 60

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in IL)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Insurance	4	$201B
▸Consumer Goods	4	$87B
▸Industrial Machinery	3	$64B
▸Healthcare	2	$55B
▸Retail / Pharmacy	1	$148B
▸Agriculture / Food	1	$86B

Price history

+263.5% since first listed

11 events — show timeline

• 2026-05-27 Listed $199,900 NWIAR
• 2026-05-27 Listed $199,900 MRED as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2023-08-04 Sold (MLS) $185,000 NWIAR
• 2023-07-05 Pending — NWIAR
• 2023-06-30 Listed $179,900 NWIAR
• 2022-01-28 Sold (MLS) $136,500 NWIAR
• 2021-11-29 Listed $134,900 NWIAR
• 2016-02-29 Sold (MLS) $29,000 NWIAR
• 2015-09-30 Listed $39,200 NWIAR
• 2000-10-20 Sold (Public Records) $79,000 Public Records
• 2000-07-03 Sold (Public Records) $55,000 Public Records

Property tax history

+0.9%/yr

Latest (2024): $4,311 · +11.2% YoY. Source: county tax records.