7608 Royal Fern Dr · Denton, TX 76259

$292,990

4 bd · 2.5 ba · 1,662 sqft · SingleFamily · 1 Days on market

Built 2026 Excellent condition 7,523 sqft lot Est $316k · 7% under $38/mo HOA · 1% of rent

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Why this score? — see what drove the C- grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +16.4/30.0
• ARV discount +10.7/15.0
• DSCR +5.1/10.0
• Condition / age +5.0/5.0
• 1% rule +4.6/10.0
• Livability +4.4/5.0
• Schools +4.1/10.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks

D. R. Horton America's Builder since 2002 is excited to serve as your new home builder in Monarch at the Meadows, a fabulous unique master planned community in Denton and Krum ISD! The single-story Baylor Floorplan, Elevation A, with an estimated Summer completion, offers 4 bedrooms, 2 bathrooms, and a 2-car garage with a bright open-concept design ideal for modern living. The family room, dining area, and contemporary kitchen flow together seamlessly, creating a welcoming and functional central gathering space. The chef-inspired kitchen features quartz countertops, 36” upper cabinets with hardware, stainless steel appliances, a electric range, stainless steel sink, center island, and

Key facts

• Open-concept design
• Quartz countertops
• En-suite bath

Tags

• OPEN-CONCEPT DESIGN
• CHEF-INSPIRED KITCHEN
• QUARTZ COUNTERTOPS
• WALK-IN PANTRY
• PRIVATE PRIMARY SUITE
• EN-SUITE BATH

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 4-bed/2.5-bath single-family listed at $293k. Condition is rated excellent.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $169 ($2k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $282k (3.6% below list).
• Recommended offer: $282k (3.6% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Cap rate 7.0% vs local median 3.4% in Denton — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 88/100 on livability (#2 in TX, #210 nationally) — a professional / high-income tenant draw. Strengths: amenities A+, commute A+, housing A+.
• Krum ISD (rural): math 44% / reading 46% proficiency, ranked #218 of 826 in TX (top 26%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Market conditions: 278 active listings in the ZIP; 2 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; solid renter incomes; 10,531 units permitted in Denton County in 2024 (2,713 in 5+ unit buildings).
• This rent runs 33% of the median local income ($102k/yr) — at the standard rent-burdened threshold; future hikes will face affordability resistance.

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $2k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $9k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Denton County population projected at +66% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.

Negotiation context

• Only 1 days on market — expect competitive offers; lowballing is unlikely to land.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: major wind risk, 27% chance of damaging wind over 30y; major wildfire risk; extreme-heat days projected 7→22/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $282,488 (3.6% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
2. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
3. Schools are B-rated — typically a magnet for longer-tenancy family renters. What's the average tenant stay here, and is there a school-zone premium baked into asking?
4. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
5. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
6. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.96% ✗
• Cap rate: 6.98%
• Cash-on-cash: 2.47%
• DSCR: 1.11
• GRM: 8.6

CMA / ARV

• ARV (on-the-fly): $315,780
• Comps found: 12

Show comp detail 12 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
521 Babbling Brook Dr	0.15mi	4/2.0	1,773 (+7%)	1mo	$347,990	$196	79
537 Amber Fields Dr	0.08mi	4/2.0	1,477 (-11%)	1mo	$283,990	$192	75
513 Amber Fields Dr	0.14mi	4/2.5	1,477 (-11%)	2mo	$279,990	$190	74
533 Amber Fields Dr	0.09mi	5/2.5 (+1)	1,818 (+9%)	2mo	$293,990	$162	74
533 Red Admiral Ln	0.20mi	3/2.0 (-1)	1,566 (-6%)	1mo	$295,990	$189	73
521 Amber Fields Dr	0.12mi	5/2.5 (+1)	1,818 (+9%)	2mo	$297,990	$164	72
509 Amber Fields Dr	0.15mi	5/2.5 (+1)	1,818 (+9%)	1mo	$290,990	$160	72
713 Wildrye Ln	0.15mi	5/2.5 (+1)	1,818 (+9%)	1mo	$299,990	$165	72
7513 Spicebush Dr	0.51mi	3/2.0 (-1)	1,699 (+2%)	2mo	$289,990	$171	64
7333 Spicebush Dr	0.48mi	3/2.0 (-1)	1,571 (-6%)	0mo	$335,294	$213	61
7524 Lavender Ln	0.45mi	4/2.0	1,877 (+13%)	0mo	$388,334	$207	55
7504 Cloverleaf Ct	0.60mi	3/2.0 (-1)	1,510 (-9%)	1mo	$347,294	$230	49

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -12.4%
• Equity multiple: 0.55×
• Total profit: $-36,656
• Equity at exit: $43,686

10-year hold

• IRR: -3.2%
• Equity multiple: 0.78×
• Total profit: $-17,802
• Equity at exit: $25,332

Cash invested: $82,037 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Texas: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+5
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day notice; statewide preemption; one of the fastest eviction climates; Travis County (Austin) slightly slower.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 76259

• Home prices YoY: -5.2%
• Active inventory: 278
• Price-to-rent: 8.6×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $2,825 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,536
• Tax est. 1.5%: −$366 /mo · $4,395/yr
• Insurance: −$122
• HOA: −$38
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$593
• Net cashflow: $169

Break-even live

Break-even rent $2,611

Max offer price $292,990

Occupancy floor 89%

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $73,248
• Closing costs: $8,790
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 2 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
7709 Tuscarora Dr Ponder, TX	5.0	3.0	2093	$2,450	$1.17	11d	1	0.04mi
1106 Spring Flower Dr Krum, TX	3.0	2.0	1568	$1,800	$1.15	44d	1	1.01mi

HOA detail

• Monthly dues: $38 · $456/yr
• Likely covers: electric

Listing history 2 events

1. 2026-03-16
   status Pending
2. 2026-03-15
   listed $292,990 Active

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 6/10 Major
• 🌡 Heat 7/10 Severe 7 d/yr ≥109°F today · 22 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 6/10 Major 27% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 4/10 Moderate 4 unhealthy d/yr today · 5 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $33,899
• − Mortgage interest: −$16,412
• − Property taxes: −$4,395
• − Insurance: −$1,465
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$2,712
• − Management: −$2,712
• − HOA: −$456
• − Depreciation: −$8,523
• Taxable loss: −$2,776
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$666
• After-tax cash flow: $2,693/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Condition & rehab AI · 2 photos

Excellent 100/100 None rehab

This single-family home in Monarch at the Meadows is move-in ready with excellent condition and a bright, open-concept design. Minor updates to the exterior and interior could further enhance its value.

Value-add opportunities

• Both Paint exterior brick and siding — Enhances curb appeal and value
• Both Replace carpet with hardwood or tile flooring — Improves aesthetics and increases value
• Both Install smart home technology — Enhances convenience and marketability

Renovation cost estimate screening

Value-add ROI direction

• Both Paint exterior brick and siding — Enhances curb appeal and value ↑
• Both Replace carpet with hardwood or tile flooring — Improves aesthetics and increases value ↑
• Both Install smart home technology — Enhances convenience and marketability ↑

ⓘ Cost ranges are severity-bucket heuristics (US national rule-of-thumb). Get contractor quotes + a written scope before underwriting a rehab budget.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Krum ISD
• NCES district ID: 4825980
• Math proficiency: 44% ▼ -4.00%
• Reading proficiency: 46% ▬ 0.00%
• Median HH income: $71,808
• Composite: 40.72/100
• National rank: #3664
• State rank: #218 of 826 in TX

Livability — Denton

• Score: 88/100
• State rank: #2
• US rank: #210

Category grades

Amenities A+ Commute A+ Cost of living A- Crime B Employment B- Housing A+ Health & safety B+ User ratings A+

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• County: Denton County · 901,654 people
• City population: 127,990
• Metro: Dallas-Fort Worth-Arlington, TX
• Population (ZIP): 6,596
• Household income: $101,845
• Rent vs Own: 26.2% rent · 73.8% own
• Severe rent burden: 180.0

Population outlook (Denton County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 1,053,010 people
• By 2030: 1,192,269 · +13.2%
• By 2040: 1,472,920 · +39.9%
• By 2050: 1,746,506 · +65.9%
• By 2075: 2,358,497 · +124.0%
• By 2100: 2,779,183 · +163.9%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (83%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 83% Hispanic / Latino 11% Two or more races 8% Black 3%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 8%
• Common ancestry: Slovak 1% Romanian 1% Lithuanian 1%
• Foreign-born: 2% · Canada, South Korea
• Languages at home: 95% English-only · Spanish 4%

Political lean MEDSL · Denton

• 2024 margin: R (+13.2) · D 42.7% · R 55.8% · Other 1.5%
• 2008→2024 swing: +11.0pp toward D · 2008: -24.2pp · 2024: -13.2pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+13.2 2020: R+8.1 2016: R+20.2 2012: R+31.7 2008: R+24.2

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -15.17%
• Current HPI: 275.4082
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: Dallas-Fort Worth-Arlington, TX
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.95%
• F500 in state: 110

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in TX)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Energy	16	$1,198B
▸Technology	5	$198B
▸Engineering / Construction	4	$72B
▸Energy Services	3	$60B
▸Utilities	3	$41B
▸Healthcare	2	$330B

Price history

2 events — show timeline

• 2026-03-16 Pending — NTREIS
• 2026-03-15 Listed $292,990 NTREIS