15946 Ashford Ct · Tinley Park, IL 60477

$284,900

2 bd · 1.5 ba · 1,533 sqft · Townhouse public records · 1 Days on market

Built 1994 1,116 sqft lot Est $290k · at est. $230/mo HOA · 8% of rent

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Why this score? — see what drove the D grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +12.1/30.0
• ARV discount +8.3/15.0
• 1% rule +4.9/10.0
• Livability +3.7/5.0
• DSCR +3.6/10.0
• Schools +3.4/10.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

Great Location! Move in condition. Granite countertops, updated cabinets with an eat in kitchen. Basement is completely finished for entertaining and includes a second kitchen. Nice large deck overlooks a nice backyard area.

Key facts

• Private deck
• Eat in kitchen
• Tree line views

Tags

• TWO STORY TOWNHOME
• PRIVATE DECK
• TREE LINE VIEWS
• HARDWOOD FLOORS
• STONE WALL GAS FIREPLACE
• EAT IN KITCHEN

Property features AI

Finance

• Other: Part of a 6-unit building; Subdivision: Ashford Manor
• HOA & community: Monthly association fee of $230; HOA covers exterior maintenance, lawn care, trash (scavenger) and snow removal; Pets allowed (cats and dogs)

Exterior

• Parking: Attached garage with garage door opener (garage owned); Asphalt driveway; Total parking for 3 vehicles; 1 garage space
• Utilities: Water from Lake Michigan / public; Public sewer; Electric with circuit breakers and 100 amp service
• Home design: Attached single property; Townhouse — 2 story; Entry level: 1; Fee simple ownership with HOA
• Construction: Built within last 31–40 years; Vinyl siding and brick exterior; Asphalt roof
• Exterior features: Deck; Landscaped grounds; Common grounds

Interior

• Kitchen: Range; Microwave; Dishwasher; Refrigerator; Stainless steel appliances; Eating area/table space
• Bedrooms: Master bedroom (second level); Second bedroom (second level)
• Flooring: Hardwood in main living area; Ceramic tile in kitchen, dining and eating area; Carpet in bedrooms and basement living areas; Vinyl in utility/laundry area
• Bathrooms: Two full bathrooms; One half bathroom
• Heating & cooling: Natural gas forced air heating; Central air conditioning
• Interior features: Finished full basement; Screens on windows; Ceiling fan(s); Sump pump with backup
• Laundry & utility: Basement laundry with sink; Washer; Dryer; Utility room in lower level

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 2-bed/1.5-bath townhouse listed at $285k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-64 ($-768/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $274k (4.0% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $283k (0.7% below list).
• Recommended offer: $274k (4.0% below list) — sets the bar for cash-flow.
• Cap rate 6.0% vs local median 4.3% in Tinley Park — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 74/100 on livability (#246 in IL, #4,453 nationally) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: commute A+, employment A+, housing A+; Watch: amenities F, health & safety F.
• Cons Hsd 230 (suburban): math 35% / reading 39% proficiency, ranked #146 of 620 in IL (top 24%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Zoned schools: Helen Keller Elem School (math 32% / reading 22%, grade F, #749 of 2,056 statewide, top 40%, 397 students, 0% FRL); Virgil I Grissom Middle School (math 41% / reading 46%, grade D, #101 of 665 statewide, top 16%, 596 students, 0% FRL); Victor J Andrew High School (math 32% / reading 36%, grade F, #147 of 693 statewide, top 22%, 2,259 students, 0% FRL).
• Market conditions: 159 active listings in the ZIP; 8 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals leasing fast (median 9d on market — plan ~1-2 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); solid renter incomes; 6,272 units permitted in Cook County in 2024 (4,658 in 5+ unit buildings).
• This rent runs 36% of the median local income ($95k/yr) — at the standard rent-burdened threshold; future hikes will face affordability resistance.

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $2k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $9k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.

Negotiation context

• Only 1 days on market — expect competitive offers; lowballing is unlikely to land.
• 5 sale attempts since 9y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.
• Current owner paid $225k; 27% above their basis — modest negotiation headroom, anchor on the comps not their cost.

Recommended offer $273,591 (4.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
3. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
4. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
5. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
6. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
7. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.99% ✗
• Cap rate: 6.02%
• Cash-on-cash: -0.96%
• DSCR: 0.96
• GRM: 8.4

CMA / ARV

• ARV (on-the-fly): $289,737
• Comps found: 12

Show comp detail 12 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
7811 160th St	0.13mi	3/2.5 (+1)	1,526 (-0%)	2mo	$265,000	$174	82
15957 78th Ave	0.14mi	2/2.5	1,456 (-5%)	2mo	$270,000	$185	80
7823 W 157th Pl Unit 1W	0.33mi	3/2.0 (+1)	1,500 (-2%)	2mo	$271,999	$181	73
7809 160th St	0.13mi	3/2.5 (+1)	1,456 (-5%)	4mo	$274,000	$188	73
7913 W 157th St Unit 1E	0.32mi	3/2.0 (+1)	1,500 (-2%)	4mo	$268,000	$179	71
16146 Bormet Dr	0.43mi	2/1.5	1,462 (-5%)	2mo	$285,000	$195	70
7841 W 157th St #208	0.29mi	2/2.0	1,400 (-9%)	5mo	$282,500	$202	66
8310 Ashley Ln #8310	0.53mi	2/2.0	1,600 (+4%)	0mo	$265,000	$166	66
16011 84th Pl	0.63mi	2/1.5	1,445 (-6%)	0mo	$276,900	$192	60
16135 Pine Dr #0	0.59mi	2/2.0	1,400 (-9%)	2mo	$265,000	$189	54
15705 Old Orchard Ct Unit 2S	0.53mi	3/2.0 (+1)	1,400 (-9%)	1mo	$277,000	$198	53
16113 Lake Villa Ave	0.74mi	2/3.0	1,394 (-9%)	3mo	$325,000	$233	42

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -17.8%
• Equity multiple: 0.37×
• Total profit: $-49,998
• Equity at exit: $42,480

10-year hold

• IRR: -9.7%
• Equity multiple: 0.40×
• Total profit: $-47,793
• Equity at exit: $24,633

Cash invested: $79,772 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 43 Moderately Tenant-Leaning
• State Illinois: 43 Moderately Tenant-Leaning · D+7
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

Chicago RTLO is among the strongest tenant ordinances in the Midwest; downstate is more landlord-friendly.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 60477

• Active inventory: 159
• Price-to-rent: 8.4×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $2,828 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,494
• Tax from tax record: −$455 /mo · $5,465/yr
• Insurance: −$119
• HOA: −$230
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$594
• Net cashflow: $-64

Break-even live

Break-even rent $2,909

Max offer price $273,591

Occupancy floor 97%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $97	-5% $17	+0% $-64	+5% $-145	+10% $-225
Rent	-10% $-287	-5% $-176	+0% $-64	+5% $48	+10% $159
Rate	-1.0pp $79	-0.5pp $8	base $-64	+0.5pp $-138	+1.0pp $-213

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $71,225
• Closing costs: $8,547
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 8 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
7736 W 157th Pl Orland Park, IL	3.0	3.0	1885	$3,700	$1.96	3d	1	0.32mi
7736 W 157th Pl Orland Park, IL	3.0	3.0	1885	$3,700	$1.96	0d	1	0.32mi
16180 Apple Ln #2 Tinley Park, IL	3.0	2.5	1250	$2,900	$2.32	6d	1	0.88mi
16450 Cherry Hill Ave Tinley Park, IL	3.0	2.0	1370	$3,100	$2.26	9d	1	1.07mi
15826 Farm Hill Dr Orland Park, IL	3.0	1.5	1500	$2,500	$1.67	12d	1	1.09mi
15502 Orlan Brook Dr #222 Orland Park, IL	2.0	2.0	1069	$2,500	$2.34	9d	1	1.10mi
15502 Orlan Brook Dr #222 Orland Park, IL	2.0	2.0	1069	$2,700	$2.53	26d	1	1.10mi
7745 Woodstock Dr Tinley Park, IL	3.0	2.0	2026	$3,300	$1.63	0d	1	1.43mi

HOA detail

• Monthly dues: $230 · $2,760/yr

Listing history 2 events

1. 2026-06-21
   remarks 699-char remark
2. 2026-06-21
   listed $284,900 Active 1 DOM

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast IL · Partial reset (capped growth)

• Current annual tax: $5,465 · $455/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $5,966 · $497/mo
• Expected delta: +$501/yr (+$42/mo · 9.2%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 1/10 Low
• 🌡 Heat 3/10 Moderate 7 d/yr ≥102°F today · 15 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 2/10 Low
• 🫁 Air quality 4/10 Moderate 4 unhealthy d/yr today · 5 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $33,937
• − Mortgage interest: −$15,959
• − Property taxes: −$5,465
• − Insurance: −$1,424
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$2,715
• − Management: −$2,715
• − HOA: −$2,760
• − Depreciation: −$8,288
• Taxable loss: −$5,390
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$1,294
• After-tax cash flow: $525/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Cons Hsd 230
• NCES district ID: 1708400
• Math proficiency: 35% ▼ -8.00%
• Reading proficiency: 39% ▼ -6.00%
• Median HH income: $73,953
• Composite: 34.29/100
• National rank: #5244
• State rank: #146 of 620 in IL

Livability — Tinley Park

• Score: 74/100
• State rank: #246
• US rank: #4453

Category grades

Amenities F Commute A+ Cost of living B- Crime A Employment A+ Housing A+ Health & safety F User ratings B+

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Tinley Park, IL
• County: Cook County · 4,486,803 people
• City population: 35,976
• Metro: Chicago-Naperville-Elgin, IL-IN-WI
• Population (ZIP): 35,976
• Household income: $94,927
• Rent vs Own: 17.8% rent · 82.2% own
• Severe rent burden: 753.0

Population outlook (Cook County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 5,347,519 people
• By 2030: 5,357,703 · +0.2%
• By 2040: 5,324,924 · -0.4%
• By 2050: 5,230,762 · -2.2%
• By 2075: 4,785,735 · -10.5%
• By 2100: 4,188,836 · -21.7%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (74%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 74% Hispanic / Latino 12% Two or more races 9% Black 7% Asian 3%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 9% Puerto Rican 2%
• Common ancestry: Romanian 14% Iranian 3% Lithuanian 2%
• Foreign-born: 9% · Canada, China
• Languages at home: 85% English-only · Spanish 6% Arabic 5% Other Indo-European 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Cook

• 2024 margin: Solid D (+42.0) · D 70.4% · R 28.4% · Other 1.2%
• 2008→2024 swing: -11.4pp toward R · 2008: 53.4pp · 2024: 42.0pp
• All cycles: 2024: D+42.0 2020: D+50.3 2016: D+53.0 2012: D+49.4 2008: D+53.4

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -272.64%
• Current HPI: 190.7548
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: Chicago-Naperville-Elgin, IL-IN-WI
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 1.59%
• F500 in state: 60

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in IL)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Insurance	4	$201B
▸Consumer Goods	4	$87B
▸Industrial Machinery	3	$64B
▸Healthcare	2	$55B
▸Retail / Pharmacy	1	$148B
▸Agriculture / Food	1	$86B

Price history

+62.8% since first listed

16 events — show timeline

• 2026-06-20 Listed $284,900 MRED as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2022-11-21 Sold (Public Records) $225,000 Public Records
• 2022-11-17 Sold (MLS) $225,000 MRED as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2022-10-18 Contingent — MRED as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2022-10-15 Price Changed $225,000 MRED as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2022-09-28 Relisted — MRED as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2022-09-12 Contingent — MRED as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2022-09-08 Listed $235,000 MRED as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2021-03-16 Sold (Public Records) $215,000 Public Records
• 2021-02-22 Sold (MLS) $215,000 MRED as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2021-01-21 Pending — MRED as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2020-12-24 Listed $215,000 MRED as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2017-08-10 Sold (Public Records) $172,000 Public Records
• 2017-07-28 Sold (MLS) $172,000 MRED as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2017-05-12 Contingent — MRED as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2017-04-05 Listed $175,000 MRED as Distributed by MLS Grid

Property tax history

+3.5%/yr

Latest (2023): $5,465 · -3.2% YoY. Source: county tax records.