🏗️ New Construction
35616 Lowery Trl · Zephyrhills, FL
Flood risk 8/10 · Major
- FEMA flood zone
- A
- Chance of flooding over 30 yrs
- 0.99%
- Est. flood insurance / yr
- $1,009 – $1,996
Fire risk 4/10 · Minor
- Est. fire insurance / yr
- $947 – $1,759
Heat risk 9/10 · Severe
- Hot days now (above 109°F)
- 7 days/yr
- Hot days in 30 yrs
- 23 days/yr
Wind risk 9/10 · Severe
- Chance of severe wind over 30 yrs
- 99.0%
Air-quality risk 2/10 · Minimal
- Unhealthy air days now
- 1 days/yr
- Unhealthy air days in 30 yrs
- 2 days/yr
Risk factors via First Street. Map © Google.
Why this score? — see what drove the F grade
The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).
- ARV discount +7.5/15.0
- Cash flow +5.2/30.0
- Condition / age +4.8/5.0
- Livability +3.6/5.0
- Schools +3.4/10.0
- Rent growth +1.9/5.0
- 1% rule +1.0/10.0
- DSCR +0.0/10.0
- Appreciation +0.0/10.0
$580,000
35616 Lowery Trl · Zephyrhills, FL 33541
5 bd · 3.5 ba · 3,561 sqft · SingleFamily
· 157 Days on market
Built 2026
6,000 sqft lot
2-car garage
$90/mo HOA · 2% of rent
↓ 6% since listing
🖨 Deal sheet (PDF) 📄 Offer letter ✓ Due diligence
Listing remarks MLS
The property is located at 35616 Lowery Trail ZEPHYRHILLS FL 33541 priced at 624990, the square foot and stories are 3561, 2.The number of bath is 3, halfbath is 1 there are 5 bedrooms and 2 garages. For more details please, call or email.
Key facts
- Community wellness
- Private social club
- Gathering spaces
Tags
Neighborhood map
Sold within
Property
Rental comp
Retail
Costco
Walmart
Transit
Schools
Stadiums
Fortune 500
· Circle radius: 6.0 mi
Loading POIs…
🏗️ New construction.
The $580,000 list price is a builder
figure, so every metric below is computed on the value from
comparable previous sales — $825,346.
What this means for you Summary
Snapshot
- This is a 5-bed/3.5-bath single-family listed at $580k. Condition is rated excellent.
Deal economics
- At list price, monthly cash flow is $-2k ($-24k/yr) — negative.
- To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $538k (7.2% below list).
- To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $498k (14.1% below list).
- Recommended offer: $498k (14.1% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
Location & tenants
- Location reads 72/100 on livability (#330 in FL) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+, health & safety A; Watch: crime C-, amenities F, commute F.
- Pasco (suburban): math 50% / reading 52% proficiency, ranked #32 of 73 in FL (top 44%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease.
- Zoned schools: Chester W. Taylor Jr. Elementary School (math 33% / reading 37%, grade F, #1,697 of 2,144 statewide, top 80%, 654 students, 77% FRL); Raymond B. Stewart Middle School (math 33% / reading 30%, grade F, #453 of 571 statewide, top 81%, 988 students, 77% FRL); Zephyrhills High School (math 35% / reading 37%, grade F, #359 of 667 statewide, top 55%, 1,656 students, 70% FRL) — zoned schools average 75% FRL vs 48% district-wide (26 pts higher); higher-poverty schools than district average — tighter screening recommended.
- Zoned-school proficiency averages 34% at this address vs 51% district-wide (-17 pts) — the specific schools serving this property underperform the Pasco average; the district grade overstates school quality for this exact location.
- Market conditions: Rents soft (-2.5%/yr); 1141 active listings in the ZIP; 3 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals lingering (median 38d on market — plan ~5-8 weeks vacancy on turnover, expect pricing pressure); 100% of comp listings sitting > 30 days — soft ceiling on asking rent; 6,765 units permitted in Pasco County in 2024 (1,250 in 5+ unit buildings).
- At $4,983/mo this rent would consume 106% of the median local household income ($57k/yr) (locally 24% of renters already pay >50% of income on rent) — very limited rent-growth headroom before tenants either downsize or default.
Forward outlook
- Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $6k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $25k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
- Pasco County population projected at +29% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.
Negotiation context
- It's been on market 157 days — a 12% lower offer ($510k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
- 2 sale attempts; this cycle's ask has dropped $86k (13%) from the opening price — seller is motivated, your offer sets the floor, not the list.
Risks & watch-outs
- Watch-outs: flood insurance adds $125/mo.
- Climate carrying-cost: in FEMA flood zone A (mandatory federal flood insurance); severe wind risk, 99% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→23/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.
Recommended offer
$498,279
(14.1% below list)
Questions for the listing agent
- What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
- It's been on market 157 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 14% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
- What's the actual annual flood-insurance premium (NFIP or private), and is the property in a SFHA with mandatory coverage?
- What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
- Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
- Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
- The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
- What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
- What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
- How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.
Investment metrics
- 1% rule
- 0.60% ✗
- Cap rate
- 3.59%
- Cash-on-cash
- -9.64%
- DSCR
- 0.57
- GRM
- 13.8
CMA / ARV
- ARV (median comp)
- $825,346
- List price
- $580,000
- Delta
- -29.73%
- Verdict
- UNDERPRICED
- Comps
- 20 within 1.0 mi
Show comp detail 12 sales within ~0.75 mi
| Address | Dist | Beds/Ba | Sqft | Sold | Price | $/sf | Match |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1626 Fallon Pass | 0.60mi | 5/4.5 | 3,575 (+0%) | 4mo | $683,460 | $191 | 64 |
| 34780 Lowery Trl | 0.60mi | 5/4.5 | 3,575 (+0%) | 5mo | $634,880 | $178 | 63 |
| 1691 Valier Pt | 0.66mi | 5/4.5 | 3,598 (+1%) | 1mo | $697,080 | $194 | 63 |
| 34746 Lowery Trl | 0.62mi | 5/4.5 | 3,575 (+0%) | 6mo | $679,310 | $190 | 62 |
| 1370 Shields Pt | 0.65mi | 5/4.5 | 3,793 (+6%) | 2mo | $684,990 | $181 | 53 |
| 1708 Valier Pt | 0.68mi | 5/4.5 | 3,796 (+7%) | 4mo | $734,980 | $194 | 50 |
| 1545 Trailhead Ln | 0.70mi | 5/4.5 | 3,835 (+8%) | 2mo | $749,999 | $196 | 49 |
| 35172 Colstrip Trl | 0.57mi | 4/3.5 (-1) | 3,297 (-7%) | 9mo | $691,550 | $210 | 49 |
| 1017 Chasehill Ln | 0.64mi | 5/3.5 | 3,975 (+12%) | 2mo | $675,390 | $170 | 49 |
| 1599 Valier Pt | 0.56mi | 5/4.0 | 4,083 (+15%) | 5mo | $753,340 | $185 | 43 |
| 1558 Trailhead Ln | 0.73mi | 5/4.0 | 3,053 (-14%) | 1mo | $539,000 | $177 | 40 |
| 34708 Lowery Trl | 0.66mi | 5/5.0 | 3,964 (+11%) | 8mo | $701,750 | $177 | 37 |
Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.
Projected returns pro-forma
-3.0% appreciation · 0.0% rent growth · sell at horizon
5-year hold
- IRR
- -38.3%
- Equity multiple
- -0.19×
- Total profit
- $-274,409
- Equity at exit
- $123,062
10-year hold
- IRR
- -81.5%
- Equity multiple
- -0.98×
- Total profit
- $-457,136
- Equity at exit
- $71,361
Cash invested: $231,097 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.
Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology
- Overall (STATE)
- 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
- State Florida
- 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+3
- County
- — inherits STATE
- City
- — inherits STATE
3-day pay-or-quit; preempts local rent control; landlord-friendly statutes. Court speed varies by county.
Buyer's market
Market conditions
within 1.0 mi — comparable homes for sale
Active competition Active MLS
- For sale now
- 60 active · 14 under contract
- Months of supply
- 18.0 mo (6%/mo absorbed)
- Median asking
- $636,999 ($196/sqft)
- Median days on market
- 178 d
- This list price
- 25% of active listings are priced below it
- ARV vs active asking
- +18.0% above current asking $/sqft
Closed sales set the value; these active listings set current market conditions and a practical price ceiling.
ZIP-level market 33541
- Home prices YoY
- -15.2%
- Rents YoY
- -2.5%
- Active inventory
- 1141
- Price-to-rent
- 9.7×
Monthly cashflow live
↻
- Estimated rent
- $4,983 medium interval (Pro) →
- Mortgage (P&I)
- −$4,328
- Tax est. 1.5%
- −$1,032 /mo · $12,380/yr
- Insurance
- −$344
- Flood insurance flood zone
- −$125 /mo · $1,502/yr
- HOA
- −$90
- Lot rent
- −$0
- Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt
- −$1,046
- Net cashflow
- $-1,983
Break-even live
Break-even rent
$7,492
Max offer price
$538,463
Occupancy floor
—
Sensitivity live
| Price | -10% $-1,412 | -5% $-1,697 | +0% $-1,983 | +5% $-2,268 | +10% $-2,553 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Rent | -10% $-2,376 | -5% $-2,179 | +0% $-1,983 | +5% $-1,786 | +10% $-1,589 |
| Rate | -1.0pp $-1,567 | -0.5pp $-1,773 | base $-1,983 | +0.5pp $-2,196 | +1.0pp $-2,414 |
UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt
Financing live
Cash to close
- Down payment
- $206,336
- Closing costs
- $24,760
- Club membership (one-time)
- —
- Reserves months
- —
- Total cash needed
- —
Loan-product check · same deal, 3 products live
Conventional
25% down · 7.5% · 30yr
- Cash invested
- —
- Monthly P&I
- —
- Monthly cashflow
- —
- DSCR
- —
- Eligible?
- —
Personal DTI + credit; lowest rate.
DSCR
20% down · 8.5% · 30yr
- Cash invested
- —
- Monthly P&I
- —
- Monthly cashflow
- —
- DSCR
- —
- Eligible?
- —
No personal income docs; deal must DSCR.
Hard money
10% down · 12.0% · 12mo
- Cash invested
- —
- Monthly P&I
- —
- Monthly cashflow
- —
- DSCR
- —
- Eligible?
- —
Short-term bridge; refi at stabilization.
Rent comps 3 comps
| Address | Beds | Baths | Sqft | Rent | $/sqft | DOM | Units | Dist |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 35482 Big Hawk Dr Zephyrhills, FL | 5.0 | 4.5 | 4218 | $5,750 | $1.36 | 38d | 1 | 1.08mi |
| 35436 Big Hawk Dr Zephyrhills, FL | 6.0 | 4.0 | 4539 | $5,900 | $1.30 | 38d | 1 | 1.13mi |
| 35335 Big Hawk Dr Zephyrhills, FL | 4.0 | 4.0 | 3138 | $5,200 | $1.66 | 73d | 1 | 1.23mi |
Property features AI
Finance
- Other
- Home warranty includedThird-party listingLiving area reported as 3,561 sq ft; total building area 4,187 sq ft
- Financial info
- Other annual assessment: $3,173Total monthly fees listed as $90; total annual fees $1,080Lease restrictions apply
- HOA & community
- HOA managed by Inframark; monthly fee $90 (required), association approval requiredCommunity clubhouse, playground, and poolPets allowed
Exterior
- Parking
- Attached 2-car garage
- Utilities
- Public waterPublic sewerBroadband/High-Speed internet availableFiber opticsNatural gas available and connectedUnderground utilities
- Home design
- Single family residenceUnder construction (projected completion: 2026-09-30)Two storiesNorth-facing
- Construction
- Block and stucco constructionTile roofSlab foundationNew constructionBuilder: D.R. Horton (Model: Talbot)Permit number CBC039052 / 2026-000041Lot approximately 0.13 acres
- Exterior features
- Sliding doorsPaved private-maintained roadIrrigation equipment
Interior
- Kitchen
- Built-in ovenDishwasherExhaust fanMicrowaveRangeRange hoodStone counters
- Bedrooms
- 5 bedrooms
- Flooring
- Carpet
- Bathrooms
- 3 full bathrooms1 half bathroom
- Heating & cooling
- Central heatingCentral air conditioning
- Interior features
- High ceilingsOpen floorplanSplit bedroom layoutStone countersTray ceilingsWalk-in closetsDouble pane windows
- Laundry & utility
- Dedicated laundry roomGas water heater
Listing history 50 events
-
2026-08-08days on market $580,000 Active 157 DOM
-
2026-08-07price $580,000 Active 155 DOM
-
2026-08-06days on market $579,990 Active 155 DOM
-
2026-08-05days on market $579,990 Active 154 DOM
-
2026-08-04days on market $579,990 Active 153 DOM
-
2026-08-03days on market $579,990 Active 152 DOM
-
2026-07-31pricedays on market $579,990 Active 149 DOM
-
2026-07-30days on market $584,990 Active 147 DOM
-
2026-07-28days on market $584,990 Active 146 DOM
-
2026-07-26days on market $584,990 Active 144 DOM
-
2026-07-24days on market $584,990 Active 142 DOM
-
2026-07-23days on market $584,990 Active 141 DOM
-
2026-07-22days on market $584,990 Active 140 DOM
-
2026-07-21days on market $584,990 Active 139 DOM
-
2026-07-20days on market $584,990 Active 138 DOM
-
2026-07-18pricedays on market $584,990 Active 135 DOM
-
2026-07-16days on market $589,990 Active 134 DOM
-
2026-07-15days on market $589,990 Active 133 DOM
-
2026-07-13days on market $589,990 Active 131 DOM
-
2026-07-13days on market $589,990 Active 130 DOM
-
2026-07-11days on market $589,990 Active 129 DOM
-
2026-07-10days on market $589,990 Active 128 DOM
-
2026-07-09days on market $589,990 Active 127 DOM
-
2026-07-07days on market $589,990 Active 125 DOM
-
2026-07-06days on market $589,990 Active 124 DOM
-
2026-07-06days on market $589,990 Active 123 DOM
-
2026-07-05days on market $589,990 Active 122 DOM
-
2026-07-03days on market $589,990 Active 121 DOM
-
2026-07-03pricedays on market $589,990 Active 120 DOM
-
2026-07-01days on market $599,990 Active 119 DOM
-
2026-06-30days on market $599,990 Active 118 DOM
-
2026-06-29days on market $599,990 Active 117 DOM
-
2026-06-28days on market $599,990 Active 116 DOM
-
2026-06-27days on market $599,990 Active 115 DOM
-
2026-06-26days on market $599,990 Active 114 DOM
-
2026-06-24days on market $599,990 Active 112 DOM
-
2026-06-22days on market $599,990 Active 110 DOM
-
2026-06-18days on market $599,990 Active 106 DOM
-
2026-06-17days on market $599,990 Active 105 DOM
-
2026-06-16days on market $599,990 Active 104 DOM
-
2026-06-15days on market $599,990 Active 103 DOM
-
2026-06-13pricedays on market $599,990 Active 101 DOM
-
2026-06-09days on market $609,990 Active 97 DOM
-
2026-06-08days on market $609,990 Active 96 DOM
-
2026-06-07days on market $609,990 Active 95 DOM
-
2026-06-04pricedays on market $609,990 Active 92 DOM
-
2026-06-03days on market $624,990 Active 91 DOM
-
2026-06-02days on market $624,990 Active 90 DOM
-
2026-06-01days on market $624,990 Active 89 DOM
-
2026-05-31days on market $624,990 Active 88 DOM
ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot
backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.
Climate risk First Street
- Flood 8/10 Severe FEMA zone A · 99% chance over 30 yrs
- Wildfire 4/10 Moderate
- Heat 9/10 Extreme 7 d/yr ≥109°F today · 23 d/yr by 30 yrs out
- Wind 9/10 Extreme 99% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
- Air quality 2/10 Low 1 unhealthy d/yr today · 2 by 30 yrs out
Nearby sold comps map
Loading sold comps map…
Walkable amenities ~0.75 mi
Loading nearby amenities…
Taxation est. · year 1
- Rental income
- $59,793
- − Mortgage interest
- −$46,232
- − Property taxes
- −$12,380
- − Insurance
- −$5,629
- − Repairs & maintenance
- −$4,783
- − Management
- −$4,783
- − HOA
- −$1,080
- − Depreciation
- −$24,010
- Taxable loss
- −$39,105
combined federal + state — saved on this device
- Est. tax savings @ 24.0%
- +$9,385
- After-tax cash flow
- $-14,406/yr
For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.
Condition & rehab AI · 13 photos
95/100
None rehab
This home is in excellent condition with a modern design and well-maintained interior and exterior. It is ready for immediate occupancy and can be further enhanced with minor updates to the exterior and interior.
Value-add opportunities
- Both Painting the exterior and interior walls — Fresh paint can enhance the curb appeal and interior aesthetics. ↑
- Both Landscaping the front yard — A well-maintained front yard can improve the overall appearance and increase curb appeal. ↑
- Both Upgrading the flooring in the kitchen and bathrooms — Upgrading the flooring can improve the look and feel of the spaces, making them more appealing to potential buyers or renters. ↑
F
Composite school gradezoned avg 34/100
Zoned Schools
Elementary
Chester W. Taylor Jr. Elementary School
F
FL #1,697/2,144
Nat'l #22,904/41,679
Middle
Raymond B. Stewart Middle School
F
FL #453/571
Nat'l #8,497/14,009
High
Zephyrhills High School
F
FL #359/667
Nat'l #9,405/17,239
Schools (NCES district)
- District
- Pasco
- NCES district ID
- 1201530
- Math proficiency
- 50% ▼ -10.00%
- Reading proficiency
- 52% ▼ -5.00%
- Median HH income
- $45,039
- Composite
- 43.14/100
- National rank
- #3074
- State rank
- #32 of 73 in FL
B
Composite livability gradescore 72/100
Livability — Zephyrhills
- Score
- 72/100
- State rank
- #330
- US rank
- #5760
Category grades
Amenities F
Commute F
Cost of living A+
Crime C-
Employment D-
Housing A+
Health & safety A
User ratings A+
Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.
Census & demographics
- County
- Pasco County · 570,045 people
- City population
- 48,266
- Metro
- Tampa-St. Petersburg-Clearwater, FL
- Population (ZIP)
- 24,654
- Household income
- $56,579
- Rent vs Own
- Severe rent burden
- 24% of renters
Population outlook (Pasco County) Hauer SSP2
- Today (2025)
- 570,045 people
- By 2030
- 605,844 · +6.3%
- By 2040
- 674,806 · +18.4%
- By 2050
- 736,022 · +29.1%
- By 2075
- 862,900 · +51.4%
- By 2100
- 906,364 · +59.0%
Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023
- Neighborhood character
- Predominantly White (72%)
- Race & ethnicity
- White 72% Hispanic / Latino 15% Two or more races 8% Black 5% Asian 5%
- Hispanic origin (detail)
- Mexican 4% Puerto Rican 9%
- Common ancestry
- Lithuanian 4% Romanian 3% Serbian 3%
- Foreign-born
- 9% · Canada, Vietnam
- Languages at home
- 85% English-only · Spanish 9% Tagalog/Filipino 1% Other Asian/Pacific 1%
Political lean MEDSL · Pasco
- 2024 margin
- Strong R (+25.2) · D 36.9% · R 62.1% · Other 1.0%
- 2008→2024 swing
- -21.6pp toward R · 2008: -3.6pp · 2024: -25.2pp
- All cycles
- 2024: R+25.2 2020: R+20.1 2016: R+21.6 2012: R+6.7 2008: R+3.6
Not yet ingested
- Civics
- —
Market trends
- HPI YoY
- ▼ -55.21%
- Current HPI
- 308.0619
- Rent YoY
- ▼ -2.51%
- Metro
- Tampa-St. Petersburg-Clearwater, FL
- State GDP YoY
- ▲ 3.28%
- F500 in state
- 36
Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in FL)
| Industry | F500 HQs | Revenue |
|---|---|---|
| Industrial Technology | 2 | $29B |
|
||
| Insurance | 2 | $17B |
|
||
| Retail | 1 | $60B |
|
||
| Technology Distribution | 1 | $58B |
|
||
| Homebuilding | 1 | $35B |
|
||
| Technology Manufacturing | 1 | $35B |
|
||
Price history
-6.2% since first listed10 events — show timeline
- 2026-05-21 Price Changed $624,990 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
- 2026-05-20 Price Changed $624,990 Zillow
- 2026-05-07 Price Changed $639,990 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
- 2026-05-06 Price Changed $639,990 Zillow
- 2026-04-29 Price Changed $664,990 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
- 2026-04-29 Price Changed $664,990 Zillow
- 2026-04-08 Price Changed $665,715 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
- 2026-03-31 Price Changed $665,715 Zillow
- 2026-03-07 Listed $666,315 Zillow
- 2026-03-04 Listed $666,315 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
Cash-flow waterfall
monthlySold comps — $/sqft
last 12 mo · ≤1 miLoading sold comps…