Is 35616 Lowery Trl in Zephyrhills, FL a good investment?

CashFlowRE grades it F with a 3.5% cap rate and $-2,039/mo modeled cash flow at a $565,000 list price. See the full underwriting and recommended offer on the page.

What is the cap rate for 35616 Lowery Trl?

The modeled cap rate is 3.5% — annual NOI divided by price, using CashFlowRE's rent and expense estimates.

What would this property rent for?

Estimated market rent is $4,785/month, from CashFlowRE's rent model.

🏗️ New Construction

F Composite 27.03

Why this score? — see what drove the F grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

ARV discount +7.5/15.0
Cash flow +5.0/30.0
Condition / age +4.8/5.0
Livability +3.6/5.0
Schools +3.4/10.0
Rent growth +1.9/5.0
1% rule +0.9/10.0
DSCR +0.0/10.0
Appreciation +0.0/10.0

$565,000

35616 Lowery Trl · Zephyrhills, FL 33541

5 bd · 3.5 ba · 3,561 sqft · SingleFamily · 204 Days on market

Built 2026 Excellent condition 6,000 sqft lot 2-car garage $90/mo HOA · 2% of rent ↓ 6% since listing

🖨 Deal sheet (PDF) 📄 Offer letter ✓ Due diligence

Listing remarks MLS

The property is located at 35616 Lowery Trail ZEPHYRHILLS FL 33541 priced at 624990, the square foot and stories are 3561, 2.The number of bath is 3, halfbath is 1 there are 5 bedrooms and 2 garages. For more details please, call or email.

Key facts

Community wellness
Private social club
Gathering spaces

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

This is a 5-bed/3.5-bath single-family listed at $565k. Condition is rated excellent.

Deal economics

At list price, monthly cash flow is $-2k ($-24k/yr) — negative.
To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $516k (8.7% below list).
To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $478k (15.3% below list).
Recommended offer: $478k (15.3% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.

Location & tenants

Location reads 72/100 on livability (#330 in FL) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+, health & safety A; Watch: crime C-, amenities F, commute F.
Pasco (suburban): math 50% / reading 52% proficiency, ranked #32 of 73 in FL (top 44%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease.
Zoned schools: Chester W. Taylor Jr. Elementary School (math 33% / reading 37%, grade F, #1,697 of 2,144 statewide, top 80%, 654 students, 77% FRL); Raymond B. Stewart Middle School (math 33% / reading 30%, grade F, #453 of 571 statewide, top 81%, 988 students, 77% FRL); Zephyrhills High School (math 35% / reading 37%, grade F, #359 of 667 statewide, top 55%, 1,656 students, 70% FRL) — zoned schools average 75% FRL vs 48% district-wide (26 pts higher); higher-poverty schools than district average — tighter screening recommended.
Zoned-school proficiency averages 34% at this address vs 51% district-wide (-17 pts) — the specific schools serving this property underperform the Pasco average; the district grade overstates school quality for this exact location.
Market conditions: Rents soft (-2.5%/yr); 1306 active listings in the ZIP; 3 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 28d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); 6,765 units permitted in Pasco County in 2024 (1,250 in 5+ unit buildings).
At $4,785/mo this rent would consume 101% of the median local household income ($57k/yr) (locally 24% of renters already pay >50% of income on rent) — very limited rent-growth headroom before tenants either downsize or default.

Forward outlook

Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $6k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $24k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
Pasco County population projected at +29% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.

Negotiation context

It's been on market 204 days — a 12% lower offer ($497k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
2 sale attempts; this cycle's ask has dropped $101k (15%) from the opening price — seller is motivated, your offer sets the floor, not the list.

Risks & watch-outs

Watch-outs: flood insurance adds $125/mo.
Climate carrying-cost: in FEMA flood zone A (mandatory federal flood insurance); severe wind risk, 99% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→23/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $478,474 (15.3% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
It's been on market 204 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 15% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
What's the actual annual flood-insurance premium (NFIP or private), and is the property in a SFHA with mandatory coverage?
What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

1% rule: 0.59% ✗
Cap rate: 3.46%
Cash-on-cash: -10.12%
DSCR: 0.55
GRM: 14.1

CMA / ARV

ARV (median comp): $810,908
List price: $565,000
Delta: -30.32%
Verdict: UNDERPRICED
Comps: 20 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 12 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
35660 Lowery Trl	0.05mi	4/3.0 (-1)	3,313 (-7%)	1mo	$560,950	$169	78
34768 Lowery Trl	0.60mi	5/4.5	3,575 (+0%)	1mo	$659,000	$184	66
1626 Fallon Pass	0.60mi	5/4.5	3,575 (+0%)	6mo	$683,460	$191	62
1691 Valier Pt	0.66mi	5/4.5	3,598 (+1%)	2mo	$697,080	$194	62
1572 Trailhead Ln	0.73mi	5/4.0	3,422 (-4%)	1mo	$649,999	$190	57
1370 Shields Pt	0.65mi	5/4.5	3,793 (+6%)	3mo	$684,990	$181	52
1708 Valier Pt	0.68mi	5/4.5	3,796 (+7%)	5mo	$734,980	$194	49
1545 Trailhead Ln	0.70mi	5/4.5	3,835 (+8%)	3mo	$749,999	$196	48
1017 Chasehill Ln	0.64mi	5/3.5	3,975 (+12%)	4mo	$675,390	$170	48
1085 Chasehill Ln	0.64mi	5/4.5	3,975 (+12%)	1mo	$626,790	$158	46
1599 Valier Pt	0.56mi	5/4.0	4,083 (+15%)	6mo	$753,340	$185	42
1558 Trailhead Ln	0.73mi	5/4.0	3,053 (-14%)	2mo	$539,000	$177	38

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 0.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

IRR: -39.3%
Equity multiple: -0.21×
Total profit: $-275,101
Equity at exit: $120,909

10-year hold

IRR: -84.9%
Equity multiple: -1.03×
Total profit: $-460,157
Equity at exit: $70,112

Cash invested: $227,054 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
State Florida: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+3
County: — inherits STATE
City: — inherits STATE

3-day pay-or-quit; preempts local rent control; landlord-friendly statutes. Court speed varies by county.

Methodology + full state rankings →

Buyer's market Market conditions within 1.0 mi — comparable homes for sale

Active competition Active MLS

For sale now: 79 active · 24 under contract
Months of supply: 24.9 mo (4%/mo absorbed)
Median asking: $712,990 ($209/sqft)
Median days on market: 85 d
This list price: 15% of active listings are priced below it
ARV vs active asking: +9.2% vs current asking $/sqft

Closed sales set the value; these active listings set current market conditions and a practical price ceiling.

ZIP-level market 33541

Home prices YoY: -15.2%
Rents YoY: -2.5%
Active inventory: 1306
Price-to-rent: 9.8×

Monthly cashflow live

Estimated rent: $4,785 medium interval (Pro) →
Mortgage (P&I): −$4,252
Tax est. 1.5%: −$1,014 /mo · $12,164/yr
Insurance: −$338
Flood insurance flood zone: −$125 /mo · $1,502/yr
HOA: −$90
Lot rent: −$0
Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$1,005
Net cashflow: $-2,039

Break-even live

Break-even rent $7,366

Max offer price $515,823

Occupancy floor —

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $-1,479	-5% $-1,759	+0% $-2,039	+5% $-2,319	+10% $-2,600
Rent	-10% $-2,417	-5% $-2,228	+0% $-2,039	+5% $-1,850	+10% $-1,661
Rate	-1.0pp $-1,631	-0.5pp $-1,833	base $-2,039	+0.5pp $-2,249	+1.0pp $-2,463

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

Down payment: $202,727
Closing costs: $24,327
Club membership (one-time): —
Reserves months: —
Total cash needed: —

Loan-product check · same deal, 3 products live

Conventional

25% down · 7.5% · 30yr

Cash invested: —
Monthly P&I: —
Monthly cashflow: —
DSCR: —
Eligible?: —

Personal DTI + credit; lowest rate.

DSCR

20% down · 8.5% · 30yr

Cash invested: —
Monthly P&I: —
Monthly cashflow: —
DSCR: —
Eligible?: —

No personal income docs; deal must DSCR.

Hard money

10% down · 12.0% · 12mo

Cash invested: —
Monthly P&I: —
Monthly cashflow: —
DSCR: —
Eligible?: —

Short-term bridge; refi at stabilization.

Rent comps 3 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
35482 Big Hawk Dr Zephyrhills, FL	5.0	4.5	4218	$5,400	$1.28	27d	1	1.08mi
35436 Big Hawk Dr Zephyrhills, FL	6.0	4.0	4539	$5,400	$1.19	27d	1	1.13mi
35335 Big Hawk Dr Zephyrhills, FL	4.0	4.0	3138	$5,200	$1.66	120d	1	1.23mi

Property features AI

Finance

Other: Home warranty includedThird-party listingLiving area reported as 3,561 sq ft; total building area 4,187 sq ft
Financial info: Other annual assessment: $3,173Total monthly fees listed as $90; total annual fees $1,080Lease restrictions apply
HOA & community: HOA managed by Inframark; monthly fee $90 (required), association approval requiredCommunity clubhouse, playground, and poolPets allowed

Exterior

Parking: Attached 2-car garage
Utilities: Public waterPublic sewerBroadband/High-Speed internet availableFiber opticsNatural gas available and connectedUnderground utilities
Home design: Single family residenceUnder construction (projected completion: 2026-09-30)Two storiesNorth-facing
Construction: Block and stucco constructionTile roofSlab foundationNew constructionBuilder: D.R. Horton (Model: Talbot)Permit number CBC039052 / 2026-000041Lot approximately 0.13 acres
Exterior features: Sliding doorsPaved private-maintained roadIrrigation equipment

Interior

Kitchen: Built-in ovenDishwasherExhaust fanMicrowaveRangeRange hoodStone counters
Bedrooms: 5 bedrooms
Flooring: Carpet
Bathrooms: 3 full bathrooms1 half bathroom
Heating & cooling: Central heatingCentral air conditioning
Interior features: High ceilingsOpen floorplanSplit bedroom layoutStone countersTray ceilingsWalk-in closetsDouble pane windows
Laundry & utility: Dedicated laundry roomGas water heater

Listing history 50 events

2026-09-24

days on market $565,000 Active 204 DOM
2026-09-23

days on market $565,000 Active 203 DOM
2026-09-22

days on market $565,000 Active 202 DOM
2026-09-21

days on market $565,000 Active 201 DOM
2026-09-20

days on market $565,000 Active 200 DOM
2026-09-19

days on market $565,000 Active 199 DOM
2026-09-18

pricedays on market $565,000 Active 198 DOM
2026-09-16

days on market $570,000 Active 196 DOM
2026-09-15

days on market $570,000 Active 195 DOM
2026-09-13

days on market $570,000 Active 193 DOM
2026-09-12

days on market $570,000 Active 192 DOM
2026-09-11

days on market $570,000 Active 191 DOM
2026-09-05

days on market $570,000 Active 185 DOM
2026-09-04

days on market $570,000 Active 184 DOM
2026-09-03

pricedays on market $570,000 Active 183 DOM
2026-08-31

days on market $575,000 Active 180 DOM
2026-08-30

days on market $575,000 Active 179 DOM
2026-08-29

days on market $575,000 Active 178 DOM
2026-08-28

days on market $575,000 Active 177 DOM
2026-08-26

days on market $575,000 Active 175 DOM
2026-08-25

days on market $575,000 Active 174 DOM
2026-08-24

days on market $575,000 Active 173 DOM
2026-08-23

days on market $575,000 Active 172 DOM
2026-08-22

days on market $575,000 Active 171 DOM
2026-08-20

days on market $575,000 Active 169 DOM
2026-08-19

days on market $575,000 Active 168 DOM
2026-08-18

days on market $575,000 Active 167 DOM
2026-08-17

days on market $575,000 Active 166 DOM
2026-08-16

days on market $575,000 Active 165 DOM
2026-08-15

days on market $575,000 Active 164 DOM
2026-08-14

pricedays on market $575,000 Active 163 DOM
2026-08-13

days on market $580,000 Active 162 DOM
2026-08-12

days on market $580,000 Active 161 DOM
2026-08-11

days on market $580,000 Active 160 DOM
2026-08-10

days on market $580,000 Active 159 DOM
2026-08-09

days on market $580,000 Active 158 DOM
2026-08-08

days on market $580,000 Active 157 DOM
2026-08-07

price $580,000 Active 155 DOM
2026-08-06

days on market $579,990 Active 155 DOM
2026-08-05

days on market $579,990 Active 154 DOM
2026-08-04

days on market $579,990 Active 153 DOM
2026-08-03

days on market $579,990 Active 152 DOM
2026-07-31

pricedays on market $579,990 Active 149 DOM
2026-07-30

days on market $584,990 Active 147 DOM
2026-07-28

days on market $584,990 Active 146 DOM
2026-07-26

days on market $584,990 Active 144 DOM
2026-07-24

days on market $584,990 Active 142 DOM
2026-07-23

days on market $584,990 Active 141 DOM
2026-07-22

days on market $584,990 Active 140 DOM
2026-07-21

days on market $584,990 Active 139 DOM

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Climate risk First Street

🌊 Flood 8/10 Severe FEMA zone A · 99% chance over 30 yrs
🔥 Wildfire 4/10 Moderate
🌡 Heat 9/10 Extreme 7 d/yr ≥109°F today · 23 d/yr by 30 yrs out
💨 Wind 9/10 Extreme 99% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 1 unhealthy d/yr today · 2 by 30 yrs out

Nearby sold comps map

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Walkable amenities ~0.75 mi

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Taxation est. · year 1

Rental income: $57,417
− Mortgage interest: −$45,423
− Property taxes: −$12,164
− Insurance: −$5,557
− Repairs & maintenance: −$4,593
− Management: −$4,593
− HOA: −$1,080
− Depreciation: −$23,590
Taxable loss: −$39,584

Your marginal tax rate % combined federal + state — saved on this device

Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$9,500
After-tax cash flow: $-14,971/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Condition & rehab AI · 13 photos

Excellent 95/100 None rehab

This home is in excellent condition with a modern design and well-maintained interior and exterior. It is ready for immediate occupancy and can be further enhanced with minor updates to the exterior and interior.

Value-add opportunities

Both Painting the exterior and interior walls — Fresh paint can enhance the curb appeal and interior aesthetics. ↑
Both Landscaping the front yard — A well-maintained front yard can improve the overall appearance and increase curb appeal. ↑
Both Upgrading the flooring in the kitchen and bathrooms — Upgrading the flooring can improve the look and feel of the spaces, making them more appealing to potential buyers or renters. ↑

F Composite school gradezoned avg 34/100

Zoned Schools

Elementary Chester W. Taylor Jr. Elementary School F FL #1,697/2,144 Nat'l #22,904/41,679 Middle Raymond B. Stewart Middle School F FL #453/571 Nat'l #8,497/14,009 High Zephyrhills High School F FL #359/667 Nat'l #9,405/17,239

Schools (NCES district)

District: Pasco
NCES district ID: 1201530
Math proficiency: 50% ▼ -10.00%
Reading proficiency: 52% ▼ -5.00%
Median HH income: $45,039
Composite: 43.14/100
National rank: #3074
State rank: #32 of 73 in FL

B Composite livability gradescore 72/100

Livability — Zephyrhills

Score: 72/100
State rank: #330
US rank: #5760

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime C- Employment D- Housing A+ Health & safety A User ratings A+

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

County: Pasco County · 570,045 people
City population: 48,266
Metro: Tampa-St. Petersburg-Clearwater, FL
Population (ZIP): 24,654
Household income: $56,579
Rent vs Own: 14.0% rent · 86.0% own
Severe rent burden: 24% of renters

Population outlook (Pasco County) Hauer SSP2

Today (2025): 570,045 people
By 2030: 605,844 · +6.3%
By 2040: 674,806 · +18.4%
By 2050: 736,022 · +29.1%
By 2075: 862,900 · +51.4%
By 2100: 906,364 · +59.0%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (72%)
Race & ethnicity: White 72% Hispanic / Latino 15% Two or more races 8% Black 5% Asian 5%
Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 4% Puerto Rican 9%
Common ancestry: Lithuanian 4% Romanian 3% Serbian 3%
Foreign-born: 9% · Canada, Vietnam
Languages at home: 85% English-only · Spanish 9% Tagalog/Filipino 1% Other Asian/Pacific 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Pasco

2024 margin: Strong R (+25.2) · D 36.9% · R 62.1% · Other 1.0%
2008→2024 swing: -21.6pp toward R · 2008: -3.6pp · 2024: -25.2pp
All cycles: 2024: R+25.2 2020: R+20.1 2016: R+21.6 2012: R+6.7 2008: R+3.6

Not yet ingested

Civics: —

Market trends

HPI YoY: ▼ -55.21%
Current HPI: 308.0619
Rent YoY: ▼ -2.51%
Metro: Tampa-St. Petersburg-Clearwater, FL
State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.28%
F500 in state: 36

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in FL)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
Industrial Technology	2	$29B
#159 Carrier Global Palm Beach Gardens $22.2B #376 Roper Technologies Sarasota $6.8B
Insurance	2	$17B
#348 Fidelity National Financial Jacksonville $12.1B #494 Brown & Brown Daytona Beach $4.6B
Retail	1	$60B
#71 Publix Super Markets Lakeland $60.2B
Technology Distribution	1	$58B
#73 TD Synnex Clearwater $58.5B
Homebuilding	1	$35B
#185 Lennar Miami $35.4B
Technology Manufacturing	1	$35B
#122 Jabil St. Petersburg $34.7B

Price history

-6.2% since first listed

10 events — show timeline

2026-05-21 Price Changed $624,990 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
2026-05-20 Price Changed $624,990 Zillow
2026-05-07 Price Changed $639,990 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
2026-05-06 Price Changed $639,990 Zillow
2026-04-29 Price Changed $664,990 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
2026-04-29 Price Changed $664,990 Zillow
2026-04-08 Price Changed $665,715 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
2026-03-31 Price Changed $665,715 Zillow
2026-03-07 Listed $666,315 Zillow
2026-03-04 Listed $666,315 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid

Cash-flow waterfall

monthly

Sold comps — $/sqft

last 12 mo · ≤1 mi

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