9821 Zinnia Ln N · Maple Grove, MN 55369

$280,000

2 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,506 sqft · Townhouse public records · 14 Days on market

Built 2000 1,742 sqft lot $186/sqft · 24% below area Est $373k · 25% under $373/mo HOA · 16% of rent

---

Why this score? — see what drove the D grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• ARV discount +15.0/15.0
• Cash flow +7.6/30.0
• Schools +4.2/10.0
• Livability +4.0/5.0
• 1% rule +3.5/10.0
• Rent growth +3.1/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• DSCR +1.7/10.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

If you have been looking for one level living, here it is! This great townhome with wonderful updates is located in the heart of Maple Grove. You'll appreciate the white enameled kitchen and baths along with new granite, LVP flooring, carpet and roof. Location is convenient to all life's essentials - shopping, grocery and dining as well as hospital and easy highway access. Features include a spacious 2 car garage, vaulted ceilings, screened deck and all living on main level. Great storage. Lower level walk out is great for accessing the walking trail right out the back door. You'll have a front row seat to all the wildlife in the area. Homes in this community don't last long.

Key facts

• $373 HOA
• 2 garage spots
• Built 2000

Property features AI

Finance

• HOA & community: HOA: First Residential; Monthly association fee of $373; HOA covers hazard insurance, lawn care, grounds maintenance, professional management, and snow removal

Exterior

• Parking: Attached insulated garage with garage door opener; Asphalt driveway; 2-car garage (approx. 17x17)
• Utilities: City water (connected); City sewer (connected); Natural gas; Electric with circuit breakers
• Home design: Residential attached property; One story (with lower level/walkout basement); Main entry level is main floor; Doors 36"+ for accessibility
• Construction: Block and brick construction; Asphalt roof (age 8 years or less); Block foundation; Built with a walkout full basement
• Exterior features: Deck; Patio; Stone and vinyl exterior; No fencing; City street frontage; Publicly maintained road

Interior

• Kitchen: Dishwasher; Disposal; Microwave; Range; Refrigerator; Kitchen window; Eat-in kitchen
• Bedrooms: 2 bedrooms total (primary on main level)
• Bathrooms: Main floor full bath; 3/4 bath in basement
• Interior features: Vaulted ceilings; Panoramic view; Paneled doors; Primary bedroom with walk-in closet; Main floor primary bedroom; Main floor bedroom; Main floor laundry; Water softener (owned); Gas water heater; Fireplace(s); Eat-in kitchen / kitchen-dining combination / living-dining combination
• Laundry & utility: Washer and dryer hookups; Washer hookup in kitchen area; Gas dryer hookup; Laundry room on main level; Utility room in lower level

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 2-bed/2.0-bath townhouse listed at $280k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-340 ($-4k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $220k (21.4% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $237k (15.2% below list).
• Recommended offer: $220k (21.4% below list) — sets the bar for cash-flow.
• Cap rate 4.8% vs local median 3.4% in Maple Grove — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 81/100 on livability (#54 in MN, #1,353 nationally) — a professional / high-income tenant draw. Strengths: commute A+, employment A+, housing A+; Watch: amenities D, cost of living D.
• Osseo Public School District (suburban): math 42% / reading 51% proficiency, ranked #129 of 301 in MN (top 43%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Zoned schools: Fernbrook Elementary (math 78% / reading 70%, grade A, #39 of 857 statewide, top 5%, 889 students, 20% FRL); Osseo Middle School (math 42% / reading 52%, grade D+, #97 of 258 statewide, top 39%, 1,155 students, 41% FRL); Maple Grove Senior High (math 53% / reading 69%, grade C+, #42 of 471 statewide, top 9%, 2,324 students, 21% FRL) — zoned schools at 27% FRL track the district average.
• Zoned-school proficiency averages 61% at this address vs 46% district-wide (+14 pts) — the actual schools serving this property are materially stronger than the Osseo Public School District average implies; a family-tenant draw the district grade alone would hide.
• Market conditions: Rents rising (+2.3%/yr); 387 active listings in the ZIP; 8 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals leasing fast (median 12d on market — plan ~1-2 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); high-income renter base; 4,651 units permitted in Hennepin County in 2024 (2,443 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $2k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $8k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Hennepin County population projected at +30% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.

Negotiation context

• Only 14 days on market — expect competitive offers; lowballing is unlikely to land.
• 5 sale attempts since 14y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.

Recommended offer $220,016 (21.4% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
3. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
4. Schools are A-rated — typically a magnet for longer-tenancy family renters. What's the average tenant stay here, and is there a school-zone premium baked into asking?
5. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
6. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
7. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
8. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.85% ✗
• Cap rate: 4.84%
• Cash-on-cash: -5.20%
• DSCR: 0.77
• GRM: 9.8

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $372,995
• List price: $280,000
• Delta: -24.93%
• Verdict: UNDERPRICED
• Comps: 2 within 2.0 mi

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 2.26% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -26.0%
• Equity multiple: 0.13×
• Total profit: $-68,546
• Equity at exit: $41,749

10-year hold

• IRR: -25.4%
• Equity multiple: -0.20×
• Total profit: $-93,785
• Equity at exit: $24,209

Cash invested: $78,400 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 46 Balanced
• State Minnesota: 46 Balanced · D+2
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

2024 reforms strengthened tenant protections; ramsey/hennepin courts paced moderate to slow.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 55369

• Rents YoY: 2.3%
• Active inventory: 387
• Price-to-rent: 9.8×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $2,374 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,468
• Tax from tax record: −$257 /mo · $3,085/yr
• Insurance: −$117
• HOA: −$373
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$499
• Net cashflow: $-340

Break-even live

Break-even rent $2,804

Max offer price $220,016

Occupancy floor —

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $-181	-5% $-260	+0% $-340	+5% $-419	+10% $-498
Rent	-10% $-527	-5% $-433	+0% $-340	+5% $-246	+10% $-152
Rate	-1.0pp $-199	-0.5pp $-268	base $-340	+0.5pp $-412	+1.0pp $-486

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $70,000
• Closing costs: $8,400
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 8 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
13485 Territorial Cir N Maple Grove, MN	3.0	2.5	1942	$2,750	$1.42	12d	1	0.44mi
13653 Territorial Rd Maple Grove, MN	2.0	1.0–2.0	807	$1,800	$2.23	0d	12	0.46mi
14800 99th Ave N Maple Grove, MN	2.0	1.0–2.0	888	$2,200	$2.48	0d	5	0.61mi
14473 103rd Pl N Maple Grove, MN	3.0	3.0	1899	$3,145	$1.66	0d	1	0.79mi
10534 Harbor Ln N Maple Grove, MN	3.0	2.5	1800	$2,795	$1.55	14d	1	1.00mi
10531 Harbor Ln N Unit 1 Maple Grove, MN	3.0	3.0	1719	$2,700	$1.57	45d	1	1.01mi
9201 Forestview Ln N Maple Grove, MN	2.0	1.0	1180	$1,950	$1.65	26d	1	1.45mi
9775 Grove Cir N Maple Grove, MN	1.0–2.0	1.0–2.0	1116	$2,970	$2.66	1d	3	1.45mi

HOA detail

• Monthly dues: $373 · $4,476/yr

Listing history 22 events

1. 2026-05-10
   historical Contingent - Subject to Statutory Rescission 934-char remark
2. 2026-05-07
   listed $280,000 Active 934-char remark
3. 2026-05-07
   historical $280,000 934-char remark
4. 2021-02-17
   soldstatus $255,000
5. 2021-01-15
   soldstatus $255,000 Sold 684-char remark

   Show marketing remark (684 chars)

   If you have been looking for one level living, here it is! This great townhome with wonderful updates is located in the heart of Maple Grove. You'll appreciate the white enameled kitchen and baths along with new granite, LVP flooring, carpet and roof. Location is convenient to all life's essentials - shopping, grocery and dining as well as hospital and easy highway access. Features include a spacious 2 car garage, vaulted ceilings, screened deck and all living on main level. Great storage. Lower level walk out is great for accessing the walking trail right out the back door. You'll have a front row seat to all the wildlife in the area. Homes in this community don't last long.

6. 2020-12-30
   status Pending 684-char remark

   Show marketing remark (684 chars)

   If you have been looking for one level living, here it is! This great townhome with wonderful updates is located in the heart of Maple Grove. You'll appreciate the white enameled kitchen and baths along with new granite, LVP flooring, carpet and roof. Location is convenient to all life's essentials - shopping, grocery and dining as well as hospital and easy highway access. Features include a spacious 2 car garage, vaulted ceilings, screened deck and all living on main level. Great storage. Lower level walk out is great for accessing the walking trail right out the back door. You'll have a front row seat to all the wildlife in the area. Homes in this community don't last long.

7. 2020-12-12
   historical Contingent - Subject to Statutory Rescission 684-char remark

   Show marketing remark (684 chars)

   If you have been looking for one level living, here it is! This great townhome with wonderful updates is located in the heart of Maple Grove. You'll appreciate the white enameled kitchen and baths along with new granite, LVP flooring, carpet and roof. Location is convenient to all life's essentials - shopping, grocery and dining as well as hospital and easy highway access. Features include a spacious 2 car garage, vaulted ceilings, screened deck and all living on main level. Great storage. Lower level walk out is great for accessing the walking trail right out the back door. You'll have a front row seat to all the wildlife in the area. Homes in this community don't last long.

8. 2020-12-09
   listed $245,000 Active 684-char remark

   Show marketing remark (684 chars)

   If you have been looking for one level living, here it is! This great townhome with wonderful updates is located in the heart of Maple Grove. You'll appreciate the white enameled kitchen and baths along with new granite, LVP flooring, carpet and roof. Location is convenient to all life's essentials - shopping, grocery and dining as well as hospital and easy highway access. Features include a spacious 2 car garage, vaulted ceilings, screened deck and all living on main level. Great storage. Lower level walk out is great for accessing the walking trail right out the back door. You'll have a front row seat to all the wildlife in the area. Homes in this community don't last long.

9. 2020-12-05
   historical $245,000 684-char remark

   Show marketing remark (684 chars)

   If you have been looking for one level living, here it is! This great townhome with wonderful updates is located in the heart of Maple Grove. You'll appreciate the white enameled kitchen and baths along with new granite, LVP flooring, carpet and roof. Location is convenient to all life's essentials - shopping, grocery and dining as well as hospital and easy highway access. Features include a spacious 2 car garage, vaulted ceilings, screened deck and all living on main level. Great storage. Lower level walk out is great for accessing the walking trail right out the back door. You'll have a front row seat to all the wildlife in the area. Homes in this community don't last long.

10. 2018-04-17
    soldstatus $206,500
11. 2018-04-13
    soldstatus $206,500 Sold

    Show marketing remark (469 chars)

    Strongly Desired Location On Elm Creek Preserve! Awesome views from every window! One level living, open floor plan, high vaulted ceilings in a cool architectural style, main floor laundry, patio doors leading to a deck/screened in enclosure, large eat-in kitchen, vaulted master bedroom with walk-in closet, fully finished walk-out lower level, plenty of storage and more! Wont last! 2 pets any size are allowed and rentals are permitted after 2 years. See Supplement.

12. 2018-03-20
    status Pending

    Show marketing remark (469 chars)

    Strongly Desired Location On Elm Creek Preserve! Awesome views from every window! One level living, open floor plan, high vaulted ceilings in a cool architectural style, main floor laundry, patio doors leading to a deck/screened in enclosure, large eat-in kitchen, vaulted master bedroom with walk-in closet, fully finished walk-out lower level, plenty of storage and more! Wont last! 2 pets any size are allowed and rentals are permitted after 2 years. See Supplement.

13. 2018-02-28
    historical Contingent - Inspection

    Show marketing remark (469 chars)

    Strongly Desired Location On Elm Creek Preserve! Awesome views from every window! One level living, open floor plan, high vaulted ceilings in a cool architectural style, main floor laundry, patio doors leading to a deck/screened in enclosure, large eat-in kitchen, vaulted master bedroom with walk-in closet, fully finished walk-out lower level, plenty of storage and more! Wont last! 2 pets any size are allowed and rentals are permitted after 2 years. See Supplement.

14. 2018-02-26
    listed $206,500 Active

    Show marketing remark (469 chars)

    Strongly Desired Location On Elm Creek Preserve! Awesome views from every window! One level living, open floor plan, high vaulted ceilings in a cool architectural style, main floor laundry, patio doors leading to a deck/screened in enclosure, large eat-in kitchen, vaulted master bedroom with walk-in closet, fully finished walk-out lower level, plenty of storage and more! Wont last! 2 pets any size are allowed and rentals are permitted after 2 years. See Supplement.

15. 2017-05-02
    soldstatus $198,500
16. 2017-04-27
    soldstatus $198,500 Sold
17. 2017-03-01
    status Pending
18. 2017-02-20
    historical
19. 2017-02-16
    listed $195,000 Active
20. 2012-04-21
    historical
21. 2012-03-13
    listed $159,000
22. 2000-04-03
    soldstatus $145,210

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast MN · Partial reset (capped growth)

• Current annual tax: $3,085 · $257/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $3,111 · $259/mo
• Expected delta: +$25/yr (+$2/mo · 0.8%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 1/10 Low
• 🌡 Heat 2/10 Low 7 d/yr ≥99°F today · 14 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 2/10 Low
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 1 unhealthy d/yr today · 1 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $28,490
• − Mortgage interest: −$15,684
• − Property taxes: −$3,085
• − Insurance: −$1,400
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$2,279
• − Management: −$2,279
• − HOA: −$4,476
• − Depreciation: −$8,145
• Taxable loss: −$8,860
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$2,126
• After-tax cash flow: $-1,948/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Osseo Public School District
• NCES district ID: 2725200
• Math proficiency: 42% ▼ -7.00%
• Reading proficiency: 51% ▼ -4.00%
• Median HH income: $76,168
• Composite: 42.35/100
• National rank: #3250
• State rank: #129 of 301 in MN

Livability — Maple Grove

• Score: 81/100
• State rank: #54
• US rank: #1353

Category grades

Amenities D Commute A+ Cost of living D Crime A- Employment A+ Housing A+ Health & safety A- User ratings D-

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Maple Grove, MN
• County: Hennepin County · 1,150,272 people
• City population: 77,762
• Metro: Minneapolis-St. Paul-Bloomington, MN-WI
• Population (ZIP): 39,290
• Household income: $112,144
• Rent vs Own: 24.1% rent · 75.9% own
• Severe rent burden: 718.0

Population outlook (Hennepin County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 1,405,227 people
• By 2030: 1,492,650 · +6.2%
• By 2040: 1,660,157 · +18.1%
• By 2050: 1,823,498 · +29.8%
• By 2075: 2,221,283 · +58.1%
• By 2100: 2,509,976 · +78.6%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (76%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 76% Two or more races 7% Black 6% Asian 6% Hispanic / Latino 6%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 3%
• Common ancestry: Portuguese 10% Romanian 6% Lithuanian 3%
• Foreign-born: 11% · Canada, China, Vietnam
• Languages at home: 86% English-only · Spanish 5% Other Asian/Pacific 2% Chinese 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Hennepin

• 2024 margin: Solid D (+42.6) · D 70.2% · R 27.5% · Other 2.3%
• 2008→2024 swing: +14.0pp toward D · 2008: 28.6pp · 2024: 42.6pp
• All cycles: 2024: D+42.6 2020: D+43.2 2016: D+35.3 2012: D+27.1 2008: D+28.6

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -313.16%
• Current HPI: 233.7627
• Rent YoY: ▲ 2.26%
• Metro: Minneapolis-St. Paul-Bloomington, MN-WI
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 2.41%
• F500 in state: 34

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in MN)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Healthcare	2	$407B
▸Retail	2	$150B
▸Consumer Goods	2	$32B
▸Industrial Machinery	2	$6B
▸Agriculture	1	$40B
▸Healthcare / Medical Devices	1	$32B

Price history

+92.8% since first listed

23 events — show timeline

• 2026-05-20 Pending — NORTHSTARMLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2026-05-10 Contingent — NORTHSTARMLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2026-05-07 Listed $280,000 NORTHSTARMLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2026-05-07 Coming Soon $280,000 NORTHSTARMLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2021-02-17 Sold (Public Records) $255,000 Public Records
• 2021-01-15 Sold (MLS) $255,000 NORTHSTARMLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2020-12-30 Pending — NORTHSTARMLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2020-12-12 Contingent — NORTHSTARMLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2020-12-09 Listed $245,000 NORTHSTARMLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2020-12-05 Coming Soon $245,000 NORTHSTARMLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2018-04-17 Sold (Public Records) $206,500 Public Records
• 2018-04-13 Sold (MLS) $206,500 NORTHSTARMLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2018-03-20 Pending — NORTHSTARMLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2018-02-28 Contingent — NORTHSTARMLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2018-02-26 Listed $206,500 NORTHSTARMLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2017-05-02 Sold (Public Records) $198,500 Public Records
• 2017-04-27 Sold (MLS) $198,500 NORTHSTARMLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2017-03-01 Pending — NORTHSTARMLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2017-02-20 Listing Removed — NORTHSTARMLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2017-02-16 Listed $195,000 NORTHSTARMLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2012-04-21 Listing Removed — NORTHSTARMLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2012-03-13 Listed $159,000 NORTHSTARMLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2000-04-03 Sold (Public Records) $145,210 Public Records

Property tax history

+3.4%/yr

Latest (2025): $3,085 · -8.1% YoY. Source: county tax records.