2209 Graythorn Rd · Middle River, MD 21220

$185,000

3 bd · 1.0 ba · 1,272 sqft · Townhouse public records · 1 Days on market

Built 1957 2,900 sqft lot Est $224k · 17% under

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Why this score? — see what drove the B- grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +25.3/30.0
• ARV discount +15.0/15.0
• DSCR +8.3/10.0
• 1% rule +6.4/10.0
• Livability +3.9/5.0
• Rent growth +2.7/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Schools +2.3/10.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks

Well-built opportunity in the established Aero Acres community of Middle River. Conveniently located near major commuter routes, shopping, dining, waterfront recreation, and parks, this home offers tremendous potential for buyers looking to build equity or investors seeking a solid addition to their portfolio. The property features a spacious backyard highlighted by a desirable double-deck setup—perfect for outdoor entertaining, relaxing, or enjoying the private outdoor space. A driveway in the rear provides off-street parking for multiple vehicles, and additional storage space adds everyday practicality. Inside, the home offers a functional layout with plenty of potential. While some

Key facts

• 2 parking spots
• Built 1957

Property features AI

Exterior

• Parking: Two total garage/parking spaces; Driveway with two spaces; On-street parking available
• Utilities: Public water; Public sewer; Electric cooling fuel; Natural gas for heating and hot water
• Home design: End of Row/Townhouse
• Construction: Brick construction; Concrete perimeter foundation; Built (year source: Assessor)
• Exterior features: End-of-row townhouse; Above grade and below grade structures noted; Ground rent of $120 paid annually; Outside city limits

Interior

• Bedrooms: Three bedrooms on the upper level
• Bathrooms: One full bathroom; One half bathroom
• Heating & cooling: Forced air heating (natural gas); Central air conditioning and window unit(s)
• Interior features: Partially finished basement

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/1.0-bath townhouse listed at $185k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $420 ($5k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($2k rent vs $185k).
• Cap rate 9.0% vs local median 4.2% in Middle River — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 78/100 on livability (#76 in MD, #2,777 nationally) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: commute A+, housing A+, health & safety A+; Watch: schools F, crime F.
• Baltimore County Public Schools (suburban): math 15% / reading 34% proficiency, ranked #11 of 24 in MD (top 46%) — low school quality limits family demand, transient renter base, plan for 1-2y turnover.
• Market conditions: Rents flat; 251 active listings in the ZIP; 36 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 25d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); solid renter incomes; 1,511 units permitted in Baltimore County in 2024 (643 in 5+ unit buildings).
• This rent runs 31% of the median local income ($82k/yr) — at the standard rent-burdened threshold; future hikes will face affordability resistance.

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $1k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $6k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Baltimore County population projected at +12% by 2050 — modest demand growth; plan on rents tracking national, not racing it.

Negotiation context

• Only 1 days on market — expect competitive offers; lowballing is unlikely to land.

Risks & watch-outs

• Watch-outs: built in 1957 — expect roof / HVAC / electrical / plumbing capex.
• Climate carrying-cost: major wind risk, 47% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→15/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $185,000

Questions for the listing agent

1. Built in 1957 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
2. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
3. Schools are F-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
4. Crime grade is F in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
5. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
6. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
7. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.14% ✓
• Cap rate: 9.02%
• Cash-on-cash: 9.74%
• DSCR: 1.43
• GRM: 7.3

CMA / ARV

• ARV (on-the-fly): $223,872
• Comps found: 12

Show comp detail 12 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
2247 Graythorn Rd	0.06mi	3/1.0	1,272 (0%)	2mo	$233,000	$183	96
2169 Redthorn Rd	0.11mi	3/1.5	1,272 (0%)	5mo	$161,000	$127	89
404 Grovethorn	0.22mi	3/1.5	1,274 (+0%)	4mo	$220,000	$173	84
2151 Coralthorn Rd	0.17mi	3/1.0	1,194 (-6%)	2mo	$185,500	$155	80
2134 Redthorn Rd	0.13mi	3/1.5	1,324 (+4%)	11mo	$233,620	$176	76
2134 Firethorn Rd	0.21mi	3/2.0	1,280 (+1%)	11mo	$229,900	$180	76
2233 Firethorn Rd	0.22mi	3/1.5	1,365 (+7%)	1mo	$200,000	$147	75
2218 Southorn Rd	0.08mi	3/1.5	1,408 (+11%)	3mo	$190,000	$135	74
710 Kingston Rd	0.33mi	3/2.0	1,319 (+4%)	1mo	$239,900	$182	74
349 Dark Head Rd	0.15mi	3/2.0	1,152 (-9%)	6mo	$240,000	$208	68
133 Riverthorn Rd	0.35mi	4/1.5 (+1)	1,324 (+4%)	8mo	$147,500	$111	63
725 Kingston Rd	0.35mi	4/1.5 (+1)	1,405 (+10%)	3mo	$270,000	$192	56

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 0.83% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -4.1%
• Equity multiple: 0.85×
• Total profit: $-7,692
• Equity at exit: $27,584

10-year hold

• IRR: 3.0%
• Equity multiple: 1.20×
• Total profit: $10,127
• Equity at exit: $15,995

Cash invested: $51,800 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 27 Tenant-Leaning
• State Maryland: 27 Tenant-Leaning · D+14
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

Failure-to-pay is dismissed if cured before judgment; Baltimore has just-cause; strict deposit rules.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 21220

• Rents YoY: 0.8%
• Active inventory: 251
• Price-to-rent: 7.3×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $2,109 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$970
• Tax from tax record: −$198 /mo · $2,380/yr
• Insurance: −$77
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$443
• Net cashflow: $420

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,577

Max offer price $185,000

Occupancy floor 75%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $525	-5% $473	+0% $420	+5% $368	+10% $316
Rent	-10% $254	-5% $337	+0% $420	+5% $504	+10% $587
Rate	-1.0pp $514	-0.5pp $468	base $420	+0.5pp $373	+1.0pp $324

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $46,250
• Closing costs: $5,550
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 36 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
2167 Graythorn Rd Middle River, MD	3.0	1.5	1324	$1,900	$1.44	25d	1	0.06mi
2242 Graythorn Rd Middle River, MD	3.0	1.5	1024	$2,195	$2.14	44d	1	0.06mi
2203 Redthorn Rd Middle River, MD	3.0	2.0	1144	$2,200	$1.92	12d	1	0.15mi
2128 Cockspur Rd Middle River, MD	3.0	1.5	1272	$2,100	$1.65	25d	1	0.17mi
433 Grovethorn Rd Middle River, MD	3.0	2.0	1024	$2,000	$1.95	23d	1	0.18mi
2202 Firethorn Rd Middle River, MD	3.0	2.5	1324	$2,300	$1.74	44d	1	0.23mi
2207 Firethorn Rd Middle River, MD	3.0	1.5	1600	$2,400	$1.50	17d	1	0.25mi
736 West Kingsway Middle River, MD	3.0	1.0	1100	$1,742	$1.58	20d	7	0.37mi
120 Kingston Rd Middle River, MD	3.0	2.0	1024	$1,950	$1.90	25d	1	0.41mi
2125 Hawthorne Rd Middle River, MD	3.0	2.0	1299	$2,100	$1.62	44d	1	0.47mi
60 S Hawthorne Rd Middle River, MD	3.0	1.0	1234	$2,250	$1.82	44d	1	0.50mi
47 S Hawthorne Rd Middle River, MD	3.0	1.0	1024	$1,900	$1.86	25d	1	0.52mi
1 Alder Dr Middle River, MD	1.0–3.0	1.0	1000	$2,249	$2.25	6d	10	0.53mi
439 Hopkins Landing Dr Essex, MD	2.0	2.0	1485	$1,795	$1.21	12d	1	0.60mi
1710 Huber Rd Essex, MD	3.0	2.5	1848	$2,900	$1.57	44d	1	0.67mi
28 Ebbing Ct Essex, MD	3.0	2.5	1464	$2,195	$1.50	12d	1	0.77mi
146 Marine Oaks Dr Essex, MD	3.0	1.5	1516	$2,700	$1.78	25d	1	0.83mi
153 Bennett Rd Unit Labs Essex, MD	2.0	2.0	1196	$1,800	$1.51	6d	1	1.05mi
233 Orville Rd Essex, MD	3.0	2.0	1144	$1,850	$1.62	44d	1	1.08mi
303 Endsleigh Ave Middle River, MD	3.0	2.0	1144	$1,950	$1.70	23d	1	1.12mi
54 Stemmers Run Rd Essex, MD	3.0	2.5	1260	$1,950	$1.55	44d	1	1.13mi
1542 Becklow Ave Middle River, MD	4.0	2.0	1224	$1,900	$1.55	23d	1	1.20mi
1516 Becklow Ave Middle River, MD	3.0	1.0	1144	$2,100	$1.84	23d	1	1.22mi
1513 Aldeney Ave Middle River, MD	4.0	2.0	1324	$2,295	$1.73	25d	1	1.24mi
1409 Nicolay Way Essex, MD	3.0	2.0	1008	$1,950	$1.93	6d	1	1.30mi
1402 Nicolay Way Unit 1 Essex, MD	3.0	1.5	1432	$1,925	$1.34	6d	1	1.31mi
1402 Nicolay Way Essex, MD	3.0	2.0	1432	$1,925	$1.34	4d	1	1.31mi
832 N Marlyn Ave Essex, MD	3.0	2.0	1416	$2,300	$1.62	44d	1	1.32mi
42 Holcumb Ct Middle River, MD	3.0	1.5	1452	$2,200	$1.52	44d	1	1.34mi
22 Nakota Ct Middle River, MD	3.0	1.5	1194	$2,000	$1.68	44d	1	1.39mi
326 Stemmers Run Rd Essex, MD	4.0	2.0	1144	$2,300	$2.01	44d	1	1.39mi
706 Seawall Rd Essex, MD	3.0	1.0	1114	$1,900	$1.71	6d	1	1.41mi
421 Torner Rd Essex, MD	3.0	2.0	1024	$2,050	$2.00	23d	1	1.44mi
10 Blackfoot Ct Middle River, MD	4.0	2.5	1596	$2,349	$1.47	44d	1	1.44mi
10 Blackfoot Ct Middle River, MD	3.0	2.5	1740	$2,299	$1.32	25d	1	1.44mi
2 Chelmsford Ct Middle River, MD	3.0	1.5	1122	$2,100	$1.87	3d	1	1.46mi

Listing history 3 events

1. 2026-06-19
   status $185,000 Pending 1 DOM
2. 2026-06-08
   remarks 693-char remark
3. 2026-06-08
   listed $185,000 Coming Soon 1 DOM

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast MD · Partial reset (capped growth)

• Current annual tax: $2,380 · $198/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $2,380 · $198/mo
• Expected delta: $0/yr ($0/mo · 0.0%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 1/10 Low
• 🌡 Heat 8/10 Severe 7 d/yr ≥104°F today · 15 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 6/10 Major 47% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 5/10 Major 6 unhealthy d/yr today · 8 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $25,308
• − Mortgage interest: −$10,363
• − Property taxes: −$2,380
• − Insurance: −$925
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$2,025
• − Management: −$2,025
• − Depreciation: −$5,382
• Taxable income: $2,209
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$530
• After-tax cash flow: $4,516/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Baltimore County Public Schools
• NCES district ID: 2400120
• Math proficiency: 15% ▼ -16.00%
• Reading proficiency: 34% ▼ -5.00%
• Median HH income: $66,746
• Composite: 23.17/100
• National rank: #7948
• State rank: #11 of 24 in MD

Livability — Middle River

• Score: 78/100
• State rank: #76
• US rank: #2777

Category grades

Amenities C Commute A+ Cost of living B Crime F Employment B+ Housing A+ Health & safety A+ User ratings C

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Middle River, MD
• County: Baltimore County · 769,527 people
• City population: 42,824
• Metro: Baltimore-Columbia-Towson, MD
• Population (ZIP): 42,824
• Household income: $81,817
• Rent vs Own: 31.2% rent · 68.8% own
• Severe rent burden: 1921.0

Population outlook (Baltimore County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 885,518 people
• By 2030: 909,272 · +2.7%
• By 2040: 951,547 · +7.5%
• By 2050: 990,955 · +11.9%
• By 2075: 1,086,411 · +22.7%
• By 2100: 1,135,078 · +28.2%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Diverse neighborhood (Simpson 0.60)
• Race & ethnicity: White 57% Black 27% Two or more races 6% Hispanic / Latino 6% Asian 5%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Puerto Rican 1%
• Common ancestry: Romanian 4% Ukrainian 2% Lithuanian 1%
• Foreign-born: 12% · Canada, Vietnam
• Languages at home: 86% English-only · Spanish 3% Arabic 3% Tagalog/Filipino 2%

Political lean MEDSL · Baltimore

• 2024 margin: Strong D (+24.5) · D 61.0% · R 36.5% · Other 2.5%
• 2008→2024 swing: +9.9pp toward D · 2008: 14.6pp · 2024: 24.5pp
• All cycles: 2024: D+24.5 2020: D+27.0 2016: D+17.4 2012: D+16.4 2008: D+14.6

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -199.31%
• Current HPI: 254.5597
• Rent YoY: ▲ 0.83%
• Metro: Baltimore-Columbia-Towson, MD
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 2.97%
• F500 in state: 12

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in MD)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Aerospace / Defense	1	$71B
▸Utilities	1	$25B
▸Hotels	1	$24B
▸Consumer Goods	1	$7B
▸Real Estate	1	$6B
▸Chemicals	1	$2B

Price history

+263.5% since first listed

3 events — show timeline

• 2026-06-08 Coming Soon $185,000 BRIGHT MLS
• 2020-02-05 Sold (Public Records) $361,682 Public Records
• 1985-08-27 Sold (Public Records) $50,900 Public Records

Property tax history

+2.8%/yr

Latest (2025): $2,380 · +3.9% YoY. Source: county tax records.