497 The Pines Ln · Arrington, VA 22922

$149,800

3 bd · 1.0 ba · 960 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 26 Days on market

Built 1971 0.99 ac lot

---

Why this score? — see what drove the C- grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +15.5/30.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• Appreciation +6.0/10.0
• DSCR +4.8/10.0
• Schools +4.4/10.0
• 1% rule +4.3/10.0
• Livability +3.5/5.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0

Listing remarks

Ranch on Full Basement. Three Bedrooms and One Full Bath on Main Level. The Full Unfinished Basement with Interior and Exterior Access Offers Expansion Possibilities. Sitting on Just Under an Acre, 0.99 Acre Lot Size. RT 29 Access Conveniently Just ½ mile away.

Key facts

• Unfinished basement
• Full basement
• Acre lot size

Tags

• FULL BASEMENT
• UNFINISHED BASEMENT
• INTERIOR AND EXTERIOR ACCESS
• ACRE LOT SIZE

Property features AI

Exterior

• Utilities: Private well water
• Home design: Single-family residential; Residential zoning
• Construction: Masonite siding; Metal roof
• Exterior features: Deck; Private maintained gravel road access

Interior

• Flooring: Vinyl flooring
• Bathrooms: 1 full bathroom
• Heating & cooling: Baseboard electric heating; Ceiling fan(s)
• Interior features: Electric water heater; Full unfinished walk-out basement

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/1.0-bath single-family listed at $150k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $60 ($722/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $139k (7.4% below list).
• Recommended offer: $139k (7.4% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 70/100 on livability (#221 in VA) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: employment A+, cost of living A+, housing B+; Watch: health & safety C-, amenities F, commute F.
• Nelson County Public School District (rural): math 42% / reading 62% proficiency, ranked #92 of 131 in VA (top 70%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease.
• Zoned schools: Tye River Elementary (math 27% / reading 52%, grade F, #900 of 1,108 statewide, top 83%, 355 students, 79% FRL); Nelson Middle (math 44% / reading 66%, grade B-, #189 of 342 statewide, top 56%, 340 students, 78% FRL); Nelson County High (math 57% / reading 82%, grade B, #159 of 319 statewide, top 53%, 517 students, 70% FRL) — zoned schools average 76% FRL vs 44% district-wide (31 pts higher); higher-poverty schools than district average — tighter screening recommended.
• Market conditions: 12 active listings in the ZIP; 66 units permitted in Nelson County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• In year one you build about $4k of equity ($1k loan paydown + $3k appreciation (1.9% local appreciation)).
• Nelson County population projected at -19% by 2050 — secular population decline; favor cash flow + early exit over multi-decade hold.
• At projected returns (1.9% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $42k cash investment doubles in ~7 years — after that, you're playing with house money.
• By year 9, paydown + projected appreciation supports a ~$34k cash-out refi (75% LTV) — recoverable capital for the next deal without selling this one.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 26 days — a 2% lower offer ($148k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: extreme-heat days projected 7→17/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $138,659 (7.4% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. Built in 1971 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
2. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
3. Schools are B-rated — typically a magnet for longer-tenancy family renters. What's the average tenant stay here, and is there a school-zone premium baked into asking?
4. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
5. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
6. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.93% ✗
• Cap rate: 6.77%
• Cash-on-cash: 1.72%
• DSCR: 1.08
• GRM: 9.0

CMA / ARV

No comps found within radius.

Projected returns pro-forma

1.93% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 6.0%
• Equity multiple: 1.32×
• Total profit: $13,564
• Equity at exit: $58,490

10-year hold

• IRR: 9.5%
• Equity multiple: 2.28×
• Total profit: $53,807
• Equity at exit: $83,771

Cash invested: $41,944 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 55 Moderately Landlord-Leaning
• State Virginia: 55 Moderately Landlord-Leaning · D+2
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

VRLTA gives some tenant protections; Northern Virginia courts slower; rural VA landlord-leaning.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 22922

• Home prices YoY: 0.6%
• Active inventory: 12
• Price-to-rent: 9.0×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,387 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$786
• Tax est. 1.5%: −$187 /mo · $2,247/yr
• Insurance: −$62
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$291
• Net cashflow: $60

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,310

Max offer price $149,800

Occupancy floor 91%

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $37,450
• Closing costs: $4,494
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Listing history 16 events

1. 2026-06-18
   days on market $149,800 Active 26 DOM
2. 2026-06-17
   days on market $149,800 Active 25 DOM
3. 2026-06-16
   days on market $149,800 Active 24 DOM
4. 2026-06-15
   days on market $149,800 Active 23 DOM
5. 2026-06-15
   days on market $149,800 Active 22 DOM
6. 2026-06-13
   days on market $149,800 Active 21 DOM
7. 2026-06-12
   days on market $149,800 Active 20 DOM
8. 2026-06-09
   days on market $149,800 Active 17 DOM
9. 2026-06-08
   days on market $149,800 Active 16 DOM
10. 2026-06-08
    days on market $149,800 Active 15 DOM
11. 2026-06-07
    days on market $149,800 Active 14 DOM
12. 2026-06-03
    days on market $149,800 Active 11 DOM
13. 2026-06-02
    days on market $149,800 Active 10 DOM
14. 2026-06-01
    days on market $149,800 Active 9 DOM
15. 2026-05-31
    days on market $149,800 Active 8 DOM
16. 2026-05-22
    listed $149,900 Active

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 3/10 Moderate
• 🌡 Heat 5/10 Major 7 d/yr ≥104°F today · 17 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 2/10 Low 2% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 1/10 Low 0 unhealthy d/yr today · 0 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $16,639
• − Mortgage interest: −$8,391
• − Property taxes: −$2,247
• − Insurance: −$749
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,331
• − Management: −$1,331
• − Depreciation: −$4,358
• Taxable loss: −$1,768
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$424
• After-tax cash flow: $1,146/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Nelson County Public School District
• NCES district ID: 5102580
• Math proficiency: 42% ▼ -45.00%
• Reading proficiency: 62% ▼ -14.00%
• Median HH income: $50,092
• Composite: 44.37/100
• National rank: #2818
• State rank: #92 of 131 in VA

Livability — Arrington

• Score: 70/100
• State rank: #221
• US rank: #7329

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime C Employment A+ Housing B+ Health & safety C- User ratings A+

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Population (ZIP): 2,255

Population outlook (Nelson County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 14,115 people
• By 2030: 13,563 · -3.9%
• By 2040: 12,384 · -12.3%
• By 2050: 11,481 · -18.7%
• By 2075: 10,103 · -28.4%
• By 2100: 8,788 · -37.7%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (67%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 67% Black 20% Asian 10% Two or more races 3%
• Common ancestry: Subsaharan African 3% Slovak 2% Serbian 2%
• Foreign-born: 14% · China, Canada
• Languages at home: 88% English-only · Chinese 11% French/Haitian/Cajun 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Nelson

• 2024 margin: Lean R (+7.5) · D 45.8% · R 53.3%
• 2008→2024 swing: -16.7pp toward R · 2008: 9.2pp · 2024: -7.5pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+7.5 2020: R+5.2 2016: R+5.7 2012: D+2.8 2008: D+9.2

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▲ 1.93%
• Current HPI: 346.6396
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 2.40%
• F500 in state: 50

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in VA)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Aerospace / Defense	4	$236B
▸Technology / Defense	3	$32B
▸Financial Services	2	$176B
▸Utilities	2	$27B
▸Insurance	2	$25B
▸Technology	2	$15B

Price history

1 event — show timeline

• 2026-05-22 Listed $149,900 RHR

Property tax history

-21.9%/yr

Latest (2019): $168 · -70.9% YoY. Source: county tax records.