PAYTON Plan · Wendell, NC 27591

$261,990

3 bd · 2.5 ba · 1,614 sqft · Townhouse · 43 Days on market

Excellent condition

---

Why this score? — see what drove the D- grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +9.2/30.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• Condition / age +5.0/5.0
• Schools +4.9/10.0
• Livability +3.9/5.0
• Rent growth +3.4/5.0
• 1% rule +2.8/10.0
• DSCR +2.6/10.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks

Discover new townhomes in Wendell, NC at The Townes at Belle Grove, a D. R. Horton community designed for homebuyers seeking modern living, everyday convenience, and an opportunity to enjoy homeownership in a growing Wake County location. Located just off Lions Club Road, The Townes at Belle Grove offers easy access to Downtown Wendell, Raleigh, and surrounding areas while keeping shopping, dining, and daily essentials close to home. Whether you're commuting to work, meeting friends for dinner, or exploring local parks and recreation, everything you need is within reach. Life at Belle Grove extends beyond your front door. Homeowners enjoy amenities designed to bring neighbors together, incl

Key facts

• Dog park
• Pickleball courts
• Walking trail

Tags

• PICKLEBALL COURTS
• PLAYGROUND
• DOG PARK
• WALKING TRAIL
• PUBLIC ART PIECE
• OPEN-CONCEPT LAYOUTS

Property features AI

Finance

• Financial info: List price $284,990

Exterior

• Parking: 1-car garage (1 parking space total)
• Home design: Single-family home (Plan); Address: Wendell, NC
• Exterior features: Living area approximately 1,614

Interior

• Bedrooms: 3 bedrooms
• Bathrooms: 2 full bathrooms and 1 half bathroom
• Interior features: Plan: PAYTON (new construction)

🏗️ New construction. The $261,990 list price is a builder figure, so every metric below is computed on the value from comparable previous sales — $288,906.

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/2.5-bath townhouse listed at $262k. Condition is rated excellent.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-218 ($-3k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $257k (1.8% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $225k (14.1% below list).
• Recommended offer: $225k (14.1% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Cap rate 5.4% vs local median 3.7% in Wendell — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 78/100 on livability (#25 in NC, #2,391 nationally) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: housing A+, health & safety A+, crime A; Watch: amenities D.
• Wake County Schools (suburban): math 52% / reading 60% proficiency, ranked #35 of 178 in NC (top 20%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease.
• Zoned schools: Zebulon Elementary (math 17% / reading 27%, grade F, #1,190 of 1,410 statewide, top 86%, 561 students, 76% FRL); Zebulon Middle (math 34% / reading 43%, grade F, #244 of 475 statewide, top 53%, 708 students, 68% FRL); East Wake High (math 51% / reading 44%, grade D, #331 of 535 statewide, top 62%, 1,646 students, 62% FRL) — zoned schools average 69% FRL vs 30% district-wide (39 pts higher); higher-poverty schools than district average — tighter screening recommended.
• Zoned-school proficiency averages 36% at this address vs 56% district-wide (-20 pts) — the specific schools serving this property underperform the Wake County Schools average; the district grade overstates school quality for this exact location.
• Market conditions: Rents rising (+3.4%/yr); 827 active listings in the ZIP; 4 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 16d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); solid renter incomes; 15,249 units permitted in Wake County in 2024 (5,568 in 5+ unit buildings).
• This rent runs 32% of the median local income ($85k/yr) — at the standard rent-burdened threshold; future hikes will face affordability resistance.

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $2k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $9k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Wake County population projected at +51% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 43 days — a 3% lower offer ($254k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: major wind risk, 73% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→17/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $225,169 (14.1% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. It's been on market 43 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 14% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
3. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
4. Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
5. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
6. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
7. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
8. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.78% ✗
• Cap rate: 5.39%
• Cash-on-cash: -3.23%
• DSCR: 0.86
• GRM: 10.7

CMA / ARV

• ARV (on-the-fly): $288,906
• Comps found: 3

Show comp detail 3 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
638 Silverado Sunset Loop	0.37mi	3/2.5	1,565 (-3%)	7mo	$254,990	$163	72
818 Bright Nova Way	0.37mi	3/2.5	1,565 (-3%)	8mo	$279,860	$179	71
719 Corvette View Knl	0.34mi	3/2.5	1,565 (-3%)	22mo	$279,990	$179	61

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 3.4% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -21.2%
• Equity multiple: 0.26×
• Total profit: $-59,739
• Equity at exit: $43,077

10-year hold

• IRR: -13.8%
• Equity multiple: 0.18×
• Total profit: $-65,974
• Equity at exit: $24,979

Cash invested: $80,894 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 85 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State North Carolina: 85 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+3
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

10-day notice; preempted; landlord-favorable but court speed varies.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 27591

• Home prices YoY: -28.3%
• Rents YoY: 3.4%
• Active inventory: 827
• Price-to-rent: 9.7×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $2,252 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,515
• Tax est. 1.5%: −$361 /mo · $4,334/yr
• Insurance: −$120
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$473
• Net cashflow: $-218

Break-even live

Break-even rent $2,527

Max offer price $257,400

Occupancy floor —

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $-18	-5% $-118	+0% $-218	+5% $-318	+10% $-417
Rent	-10% $-396	-5% $-307	+0% $-218	+5% $-129	+10% $-40
Rate	-1.0pp $-72	-0.5pp $-144	base $-218	+0.5pp $-293	+1.0pp $-369

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $72,226
• Closing costs: $8,667
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 4 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
469 Willard Woods Dr Wendell, NC	4.0	2.5	1921	$2,200	$1.15	5d	1	0.57mi
316 Willard Forest Dr Wendell, NC	4.0	2.5	2000	$2,095	$1.05	25d	1	0.59mi
316 Willard Forest Dr Wendell, NC	4.0	2.5	2000	$1,995	$1.00	16d	1	0.59mi
408 Deer Grove Trl Wendell, NC	4.0	2.5	2002	$2,225	$1.11	4d	1	0.85mi

Listing history 15 events

1. 2026-06-21
   days on market $261,990 Active 43 DOM
2. 2026-06-18
   days on market $261,990 Active 40 DOM
3. 2026-06-17
   days on market $261,990 Active 39 DOM
4. 2026-06-16
   days on market $261,990 Active 38 DOM
5. 2026-06-15
   days on market $261,990 Active 37 DOM
6. 2026-06-13
   days on market $261,990 Active 35 DOM
7. 2026-06-13
   days on market $261,990 Active 34 DOM
8. 2026-06-09
   days on market $261,990 Active 31 DOM
9. 2026-06-08
   days on market $261,990 Active 30 DOM
10. 2026-06-07
    pricedays on market $261,990 Active 29 DOM
11. 2026-06-05
    days on market $286,990 Active 26 DOM
12. 2026-06-03
    days on market $286,990 Active 25 DOM
13. 2026-06-02
    days on market $286,990 Active 24 DOM
14. 2026-06-01
    days on market $286,990 Active 23 DOM
15. 2026-05-31
    days on market $286,990 Active 22 DOM

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 3/10 Moderate
• 🌡 Heat 6/10 Major 7 d/yr ≥105°F today · 17 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 6/10 Major 73% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 3/10 Moderate 2 unhealthy d/yr today · 3 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $27,020
• − Mortgage interest: −$16,183
• − Property taxes: −$4,334
• − Insurance: −$1,445
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$2,162
• − Management: −$2,162
• − Depreciation: −$8,405
• Taxable loss: −$7,669
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$1,841
• After-tax cash flow: $-772/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Condition & rehab AI · 3 photos

Excellent 100/100 None rehab

This newly constructed townhouse in Wendell, NC, is in excellent condition with no visible repairs or maintenance needed. It offers a perfect balance of suburban comfort and city accessibility, making it an ideal investment property.

Value-add opportunities

• Both Landscaping improvements — Enhances curb appeal and adds value
• Both Interior paint touch-ups — Maintains a fresh and inviting appearance

Renovation cost estimate screening

Value-add ROI direction

• Both Landscaping improvements — Enhances curb appeal and adds value ↑
• Both Interior paint touch-ups — Maintains a fresh and inviting appearance ↑

ⓘ Cost ranges are severity-bucket heuristics (US national rule-of-thumb). Get contractor quotes + a written scope before underwriting a rehab budget.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Wake County Schools
• NCES district ID: 3704720
• Math proficiency: 52% ▲ 2.00%
• Reading proficiency: 60% ▲ 4.00%
• Median HH income: $67,509
• Composite: 49.41/100
• National rank: #2010
• State rank: #35 of 178 in NC

Livability — Wendell

• Score: 78/100
• State rank: #25
• US rank: #2391

Category grades

Amenities D Commute C+ Cost of living A Crime A Employment B+ Housing A+ Health & safety A+ User ratings D+

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Wendell, NC
• County: Wake County · 1,216,256 people
• City population: 29,838
• Metro: Raleigh-Cary, NC
• Population (ZIP): 29,838
• Household income: $85,224
• Rent vs Own: 20.0% rent · 80.0% own
• Severe rent burden: 369.0

Population outlook (Wake County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 1,293,152 people
• By 2030: 1,428,223 · +10.4%
• By 2040: 1,698,188 · +31.3%
• By 2050: 1,955,807 · +51.2%
• By 2075: 2,520,273 · +94.9%
• By 2100: 2,893,335 · +123.7%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Diverse neighborhood (Simpson 0.66)
• Race & ethnicity: White 46% Hispanic / Latino 27% Black 22% Two or more races 11%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 14% Puerto Rican 4% Dominican 1%
• Common ancestry: Slovak 2% Serbian 2% Lithuanian 1%
• Foreign-born: 14% · Canada, Jamaica
• Languages at home: 79% English-only · Spanish 18% Tagalog/Filipino 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Wake

• 2024 margin: Strong D (+25.5) · D 61.9% · R 36.4% · Other 1.7%
• 2008→2024 swing: +11.1pp toward D · 2008: 14.4pp · 2024: 25.5pp
• All cycles: 2024: D+25.5 2020: D+26.4 2016: D+20.5 2012: D+10.2 2008: D+14.4

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -92.20%
• Current HPI: 233.2846
• Rent YoY: ▲ 3.40%
• Metro: Raleigh-Cary, NC
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.28%
• F500 in state: 26

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in NC)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Financial Services	2	$213B
▸Retail	2	$95B
▸Industrial Conglomerate	1	$38B
▸Metals / Steel	1	$35B
▸Utilities	1	$30B
▸Industrial Machinery	1	$19B