3300 Bonfire Dr · Avalon, FL 32583

$269,997

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,250 sqft · Land · 47 Days on market

Built 2026 6,098 sqft lot

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Why this score? — see what drove the D- grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +8.7/30.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• Schools +5.3/10.0
• Rent growth +3.6/5.0
• Livability +3.2/5.0
• 1% rule +2.7/10.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• DSCR +2.4/10.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

Cottage Style Brick New Home (Sample Photos). The open floor plan is light and bright with a 14' Vaulted Ceiling, Open Living, Dining, & Kitchen area. This Custom Kitchen has Beautiful Cabinets, a Pantry, Long Breakfast Bar, Stainless upgraded appliances, Built in Microwave, Deep Stainless Sink, Granite Counter Tops, so much Prep space. The Main Bedroom is split and has two windows, a gorgeous Bath, and Huge Walk in Closet. The en suite Bath has an oversized Shower, and a Vanity with Granite Countertop. The 2nd & 3rd Bedrooms have plenty of room and the 3rd bedroom has direct access to the 2nd bath. The 2nd bath has Granite Countertops and a tub/shower. Ceiling Ready Early Aug 2026

Key facts

• Covered front porch
• Custom kitchen
• Low maintenance yard

Tags

• COVERED FRONT PORCH
• LOW MAINTENANCE YARD
• HURRICANE PROTECTION
• OPEN LIVING AREA
• CUSTOM KITCHEN
• MAIN BEDROOM SUITE

Property features AI

Finance

• Other: Green/energy-efficient features included
• HOA & community: No homeowners association

Exterior

• Parking: Driveway with a total of 3 parking spaces; Has open parking
• Security: Smoke detectors
• Utilities: Public water; Public sewer; Electric service with circuit breakers and copper wiring; Cable available
• Home design: New construction, one-story single-family home; Not attached to another property; Composition roof
• Construction: Built with brick and frame construction; Slab foundation; New construction
• Exterior features: Porch; Rain gutters; Interior lot; Paved, county-maintained road access

Interior

• Kitchen: Updated kitchen with granite/solid surface counters; Pantry; Built-in microwave; Stainless upgraded appliances including refrigerator; Custom lighting; Beautiful cabinets
• Bedrooms: Master bedroom on the first floor (approx. 14 x 12); Two additional bedrooms on the first floor (each approx. 11 x 10)
• Bathrooms: Two full bathrooms; Recently updated bathrooms with a custom large shower, solid surface countertops, and oversized walk-in closet (updated within 1–5 years)
• Heating & cooling: Heat pump heating and cooling; Ceiling fans included; Energy-efficient features: insulation, insulated walls, ridge vent
• Interior features: Cathedral ceilings; Ceiling fans; High-speed internet; Insulated doors; Double-pane windows with shutters
• Laundry & utility: Inside laundry with washer/dryer hookups; Electric water heater

🏗️ New construction. Builder plan / spec listing (the home may be to-be-built); metrics use comparable previous sales.

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath land listed at $270k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-225 ($-3k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $237k (12.1% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $208k (23.1% below list).
• Recommended offer: $208k (23.1% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 65/100 on livability (#648 in FL) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: crime A+, housing A+, cost of living A; Watch: amenities F, commute F, health & safety F.
• Santa Rosa (suburban): math 63% / reading 60% proficiency, ranked #8 of 73 in FL (top 11%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease.
• Zoned schools: Bennett C Russell Elementary School (math 55% / reading 59%, grade C+, #781 of 2,144 statewide, top 38%, 819 students, 59% FRL); Milton High School (math 44% / reading 42%, grade F, #255 of 667 statewide, top 39%, 2,085 students, 54% FRL) — zoned schools average 57% FRL vs 36% district-wide (20 pts higher); higher-poverty schools than district average — tighter screening recommended.
• Market conditions: Rents rising fast (+4.5%/yr); 832 active listings in the ZIP; 12 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 16d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); solid renter incomes; 1,983 units permitted in Santa Rosa County in 2024 (128 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $2k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $8k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Santa Rosa County population projected at +31% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 47 days — a 3% lower offer ($262k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 3 sale attempts with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.
• Current owner paid $29k; list at $270k implies a 831% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.

Recommended offer $207,648 (23.1% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. It's been on market 47 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 23% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
3. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
4. Schools are F-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
5. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
6. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
7. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
8. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.77% ✗
• Cap rate: 5.29%
• Cash-on-cash: -3.58%
• DSCR: 0.84
• GRM: 10.8

CMA / ARV

No comps found within radius.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 4.53% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -20.6%
• Equity multiple: 0.27×
• Total profit: $-54,835
• Equity at exit: $40,257

10-year hold

• IRR: -10.7%
• Equity multiple: 0.31×
• Total profit: $-52,374
• Equity at exit: $23,344

Cash invested: $75,599 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Florida: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+3
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day pay-or-quit; preempts local rent control; landlord-friendly statutes. Court speed varies by county.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 32583

• Home prices YoY: -11.3%
• Rents YoY: 4.5%
• Active inventory: 832
• Price-to-rent: 10.8×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $2,076 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,416
• Tax est. 1.5%: −$337 /mo · $4,050/yr
• Insurance: −$112
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$436
• Net cashflow: $-225

Break-even live

Break-even rent $2,362

Max offer price $237,371

Occupancy floor —

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $-39	-5% $-132	+0% $-225	+5% $-319	+10% $-412
Rent	-10% $-390	-5% $-307	+0% $-225	+5% $-143	+10% $-61
Rate	-1.0pp $-89	-0.5pp $-157	base $-225	+0.5pp $-295	+1.0pp $-367

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $67,499
• Closing costs: $8,100
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 12 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
3210 Electra Dr Milton, FL	3.0	2.0	1543	$2,000	$1.30	16d	1	0.26mi
5093 Carley Ct Milton, FL	3.0	2.0	1657	$1,950	$1.18	16d	1	0.41mi
2989 N 5th Ave Milton, FL	3.0	2.0	1144	$2,400	$2.10	25d	1	0.98mi
4185 Pendragon Cir Unit Alisha walker Milton, FL	3.0	2.5	1553	$1,800	$1.16	16d	1	1.30mi
4167 Pendragon Cir Milton, FL	3.0	2.5	1553	$1,800	$1.16	16d	1	1.30mi
3015 N 33rd Ave Milton, FL	3.0	2.0	1373	$1,950	$1.42	25d	1	1.34mi
3863 Pendragon Cir , FL	3.0	2.5	1579	$2,500	$1.58	25d	1	1.35mi
5621 Fulcina Ct Milton, FL	3.0	2.0	1585	$1,900	$1.20	25d	1	1.35mi
5320 Cornwall Dr Milton, FL	3.0	2.0	1703	$2,200	$1.29	16d	1	1.35mi
4067 Pendragon Cir Milton, FL	3.0	2.5	1537	$1,800	$1.17	16d	1	1.35mi
4051 Pendragon Cir Milton, FL	3.0	2.5	1530	$1,800	$1.18	16d	1	1.37mi
3984 Pendragon Cir Unit 1 Milton, FL	3.0	2.5	1537	$1,800	$1.17	23d	1	1.42mi

Listing history 23 events

1. 2026-06-23
   days on market $269,997 Active 47 DOM
2. 2026-06-22
   days on market $269,997 Active 46 DOM
3. 2026-06-18
   days on market $269,997 Active 43 DOM
4. 2026-06-17
   days on market $269,997 Active 42 DOM
5. 2026-06-16
   days on market $269,997 Active 41 DOM
6. 2026-06-15
   days on market $269,997 Active 40 DOM
7. 2026-06-14
   days on market $269,997 Active 38 DOM
8. 2026-06-10
   days on market $269,997 Active 35 DOM
9. 2026-06-09
   days on market $269,997 Active 34 DOM
10. 2026-06-08
    days on market $269,997 Active 33 DOM
11. 2026-06-07
    days on market $269,997 Active 32 DOM
12. 2026-06-05
    days on market $269,997 Active 29 DOM
13. 2026-06-03
    days on market $269,997 Active 28 DOM
14. 2026-06-02
    days on market $269,997 Active 27 DOM
15. 2026-06-01
    days on market $269,997 Active 26 DOM
16. 2026-05-31
    days on market $269,997 Active 25 DOM
17. 2026-05-31
    days on market $269,997 Active 24 DOM
18. 2026-05-06
    listed $269,997 Active

    Show marketing remark (699 chars)

    Cottage Style Brick New Home (Sample Photos). The open floor plan is light and bright with a 14' Vaulted Ceiling, Open Living, Dining, & Kitchen area. This Custom Kitchen has Beautiful Cabinets, a Pantry, Long Breakfast Bar, Stainless upgraded appliances, Built in Microwave, Deep Stainless Sink, Granite Counter Tops, so much Prep space. The Main Bedroom is split and has two windows, a gorgeous Bath, and Huge Walk in Closet. The en suite Bath has an oversized Shower, and a Vanity with Granite Countertop. The 2nd & 3rd Bedrooms have plenty of room and the 3rd bedroom has direct access to the 2nd bath. The 2nd bath has Granite Countertops and a tub/shower. Ceiling Ready Early Aug 2026

19. 2026-05-06
    listed $269,997 Active 699-char remark

    Show marketing remark (699 chars)

    Cottage Style Brick New Home (Sample Photos). The open floor plan is light and bright with a 14' Vaulted Ceiling, Open Living, Dining, & Kitchen area. This Custom Kitchen has Beautiful Cabinets, a Pantry, Long Breakfast Bar, Stainless upgraded appliances, Built in Microwave, Deep Stainless Sink, Granite Counter Tops, so much Prep space. The Main Bedroom is split and has two windows, a gorgeous Bath, and Huge Walk in Closet. The en suite Bath has an oversized Shower, and a Vanity with Granite Countertop. The 2nd & 3rd Bedrooms have plenty of room and the 3rd bedroom has direct access to the 2nd bath. The 2nd bath has Granite Countertops and a tub/shower. Ceiling Ready Early Aug 2026

20. 2026-02-17
    status Pending 647-char remark

    Show marketing remark (647 chars)

    Beautiful residential lot ready to build on. Minimal site prep needed! Conveniently located mins from the interstate, shopping, restaurants and more. Public boat launch located at end of Road. Up and coming residential area with numerous new build and current construction projects going on. Lot was built up to accommodate a gravity fed septic system, however sewer is availably in the area should buyer choose to pay for it to be extended to reach these lots. Lot beside it is also up for sale. Seller is providing survey and has plans ready to be build on the site. Please contact agent for more information and schedule your showing today!

21. 2026-02-17
    soldstatus $29,000 Sold 647-char remark

    Show marketing remark (647 chars)

    Beautiful residential lot ready to build on. Minimal site prep needed! Conveniently located mins from the interstate, shopping, restaurants and more. Public boat launch located at end of Road. Up and coming residential area with numerous new build and current construction projects going on. Lot was built up to accommodate a gravity fed septic system, however sewer is availably in the area should buyer choose to pay for it to be extended to reach these lots. Lot beside it is also up for sale. Seller is providing survey and has plans ready to be build on the site. Please contact agent for more information and schedule your showing today!

22. 2025-11-18
    historical Contingent 647-char remark

    Show marketing remark (647 chars)

    Beautiful residential lot ready to build on. Minimal site prep needed! Conveniently located mins from the interstate, shopping, restaurants and more. Public boat launch located at end of Road. Up and coming residential area with numerous new build and current construction projects going on. Lot was built up to accommodate a gravity fed septic system, however sewer is availably in the area should buyer choose to pay for it to be extended to reach these lots. Lot beside it is also up for sale. Seller is providing survey and has plans ready to be build on the site. Please contact agent for more information and schedule your showing today!

23. 2025-03-09
    listed $45,000 Active 647-char remark

    Show marketing remark (647 chars)

    Beautiful residential lot ready to build on. Minimal site prep needed! Conveniently located mins from the interstate, shopping, restaurants and more. Public boat launch located at end of Road. Up and coming residential area with numerous new build and current construction projects going on. Lot was built up to accommodate a gravity fed septic system, however sewer is availably in the area should buyer choose to pay for it to be extended to reach these lots. Lot beside it is also up for sale. Seller is providing survey and has plans ready to be build on the site. Please contact agent for more information and schedule your showing today!

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $24,918
• − Mortgage interest: −$15,124
• − Property taxes: −$4,050
• − Insurance: −$1,350
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,993
• − Management: −$1,993
• − Depreciation: −$7,854
• Taxable loss: −$7,448
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$1,787
• After-tax cash flow: $-918/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Santa Rosa
• NCES district ID: 1201650
• Math proficiency: 63% ▼ -6.00%
• Reading proficiency: 60% ▼ -5.00%
• Median HH income: $58,161
• Composite: 53.12/100
• National rank: #1511
• State rank: #8 of 73 in FL

Livability — Avalon

• Score: 65/100
• State rank: #648
• US rank: #12530

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A Crime A+ Employment B+ Housing A+ Health & safety F User ratings A

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• County: Santa Rosa County · 194,764 people
• Metro: Pensacola-Ferry Pass-Brent, FL
• Population (ZIP): 31,828
• Household income: $85,440
• Rent vs Own: 12.9% rent · 87.1% own
• Severe rent burden: 122.0

Population outlook (Santa Rosa County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 195,978 people
• By 2030: 209,782 · +7.0%
• By 2040: 235,293 · +20.1%
• By 2050: 256,408 · +30.8%
• By 2075: 298,074 · +52.1%
• By 2100: 303,216 · +54.7%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (74%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 74% Black 11% Two or more races 10% Hispanic / Latino 6% Asian 1%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 3% Puerto Rican 2% Cuban 1%
• Common ancestry: Italian 3% Slovak 2% Serbian 2%
• Foreign-born: 3% · Canada
• Languages at home: 94% English-only · Spanish 3%

Political lean MEDSL · Santa Rosa

• 2024 margin: Solid R (+51.0) · D 24.1% · R 75.0%
• 2008→2024 swing: -3.0pp toward R · 2008: -47.9pp · 2024: -51.0pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+51.0 2020: R+46.5 2016: R+53.5 2012: R+52.6 2008: R+47.9

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -38.35%
• Current HPI: 301.8819
• Rent YoY: ▲ 4.53%
• Metro: Pensacola-Ferry Pass-Brent, FL
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.28%
• F500 in state: 36

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in FL)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Industrial Technology	2	$29B
▸Insurance	2	$17B
▸Retail	1	$60B
▸Technology Distribution	1	$58B
▸Homebuilding	1	$35B
▸Technology Manufacturing	1	$35B

Price history

+500.0% since first listed

6 events — show timeline

• 2026-05-06 Listed $269,997 NAMLS
• 2026-05-06 Listed $269,997 PARMLS
• 2026-02-17 Pending — PARMLS
• 2026-02-17 Sold (MLS) $29,000 PARMLS
• 2025-11-18 Contingent — PARMLS
• 2025-03-09 Listed $45,000 PARMLS