4230 Lake Cypress Cir · Houston, TX 77068

$365,000

5 bd · 3.5 ba · 3,039 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 37 Days on market

Built 2017 7,139 sqft lot $120/sqft · 8% above area Est $337k · 8% over $69/mo HOA · 1% of rent ↓ 9% since listing

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Why this score? — see what drove the B- grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +30.0/30.0
• 1% rule +10.0/10.0
• DSCR +10.0/10.0
• Appreciation +3.9/10.0
• ARV discount +3.8/15.0
• Livability +3.7/5.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Schools +2.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

Welcome to this beautifully upgraded 5-bedroom, 2.5-bath home offering over 3,000 square feet of stylish living in Cypress Creek Crossing. From the moment you arrive, the curb appeal shines with custom brickwork, stone accents, and a covered front porch. Inside, you’ll find an open-concept layout with laminate flooring, elegant fixtures, and designer touches. The spacious living, dining, and kitchen areas flow seamlessly together, ideal for entertaining. The kitchen features granite countertops, a stylish backsplash, a breakfast bar, and a wine nook with decorative ironwork. The first-floor primary suite offers comfort, while upstairs includes generously sized secondary bedrooms and a large game room. Step outside to enjoy the screened-in patio with tile flooring and string lights, plus a backyard with a custom walkway, added trees, and a play set. Other highlights include attic decking, upgraded shelving, and a fenced yard. Move-in ready with comfort, style, and thoughtful upgrades.

Key facts

• Covered front porch
• Stylish backsplash
• Stone accents

Tags

• CUSTOM BRICKWORK
• STONE ACCENTS
• COVERED FRONT PORCH
• OPEN-CONCEPT LAYOUT
• GRANITE COUNTERTOPS
• STYLISH BACKSPLASH

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 5-bed/3.5-bath single-family listed at $365k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $3k ($32k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($7k rent vs $365k).
• Recommended offer: $354k (3.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Cap rate 15.1% vs local median 3.1% in Houston — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 74/100 on livability (#184 in TX, #4,771 nationally) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: amenities A+, cost of living A+, housing A+; Watch: schools D, crime F.
• Spring ISD (suburban): math 19% / reading 26% proficiency, ranked #730 of 826 in TX (top 88%) — low school quality limits family demand, transient renter base, plan for 1-2y turnover; 66% free/reduced lunch — lower-income household profile, screen leases tightly.
• Market conditions: 117 active listings in the ZIP; 3 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 23d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); 29,883 units permitted in Harris County in 2024 (8,621 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-2.1%/yr); year-one equity from $3k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $8k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Harris County population projected at +47% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.
• At projected returns (-2.1% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $102k cash investment doubles in ~4 years — after that, you're playing with house money.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 37 days — a 3% lower offer ($354k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 2 sale attempts with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: major flood risk; severe wind risk, 99% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→23/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $354,050 (3.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 37 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 3% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
3. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
4. Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
5. Crime grade is F in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
6. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
7. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
8. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.91% ✓
• Cap rate: 15.13%
• Cash-on-cash: 31.56%
• DSCR: 2.40
• GRM: 4.4

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $336,975
• List price: $365,000
• Delta: 8.32%
• Verdict: FAIR
• Comps: 20 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 12 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
4306 Lake Cypress Cir	0.06mi	5/2.5	3,250 (+7%)	6mo	$409,379	$126	77
4118 Streambed Trl	0.22mi	4/2.5 (-1)	2,979 (-2%)	6mo	$359,999	$121	73
15515 San Milo Dr	0.62mi	4/3.5 (-1)	3,056 (+1%)	2mo	$345,000	$113	64
4022 Streambed Trl	0.27mi	4/2.5 (-1)	2,792 (-8%)	2mo	$325,000	$116	63
4215 False Cypress Ln	0.13mi	4/2.5 (-1)	2,596 (-15%)	3mo	$285,000	$110	58
14538 Bending Maple Dr	0.71mi	4/2.5 (-1)	3,020 (-1%)	1mo	$375,000	$124	56
3818 Gladeridge Dr	0.61mi	4/2.5 (-1)	3,068 (+1%)	6mo	$335,000	$109	56
4418 Windmill Run Dr	0.52mi	4/3.0 (-1)	2,760 (-9%)	0mo	$332,000	$120	53
15406 Falling Creek Dr	0.68mi	4/2.5 (-1)	2,950 (-3%)	3mo	$315,000	$107	51
15518 San Milo Dr	0.65mi	4/3.5 (-1)	3,383 (+11%)	2mo	$329,000	$97	44
14543 Overland Hollow Dr	0.50mi	4/3.0 (-1)	2,606 (-14%)	5mo	$334,900	$129	42
15007 Walters Rd	0.73mi	4/2.5 (-1)	2,730 (-10%)	1mo	$279,900	$103	39

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-2.14% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 28.2%
• Equity multiple: 2.23×
• Total profit: $125,708
• Equity at exit: $68,640

10-year hold

• IRR: 34.6%
• Equity multiple: 4.36×
• Total profit: $342,941
• Equity at exit: $56,529

Cash invested: $102,200 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Texas: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+5
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day notice; statewide preemption; one of the fastest eviction climates; Travis County (Austin) slightly slower.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 77068

• Home prices YoY: -1.0%
• Active inventory: 117
• Price-to-rent: 4.4×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $6,988 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,914
• Tax from tax record: −$697 /mo · $8,366/yr
• Insurance: −$152
• HOA: −$69
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$1,467
• Net cashflow: $2,688

Break-even live

Break-even rent $3,585

Max offer price $365,000

Occupancy floor 57%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $2,895	-5% $2,791	+0% $2,688	+5% $2,585	+10% $2,481
Rent	-10% $2,136	-5% $2,412	+0% $2,688	+5% $2,964	+10% $3,240
Rate	-1.0pp $2,872	-0.5pp $2,781	base $2,688	+0.5pp $2,593	+1.0pp $2,497

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $91,250
• Closing costs: $10,950
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 3 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
4622 Falling Sun Dr Houston, TX	4.0	3.0	2485	$2,500	$1.01	44d	1	0.55mi
5135 Westerham Pl Unit 1262307P Houston, TX	5.0	3.5	3358	$17,582	$5.24	22d	1	1.10mi
5415 Olympia Fields Ln Houston, TX	4.0	4.0	4163	$3,500	$0.84	4d	1	1.23mi

HOA detail

• Monthly dues: $69 · $828/yr

Listing history 6 events

1. 2026-04-22
   listed $365,000 Active 1004-char remark

   Show marketing remark (1004 chars)

   Welcome to this beautifully upgraded 5-bedroom, 2.5-bath home offering over 3,000 square feet of stylish living in Cypress Creek Crossing. From the moment you arrive, the curb appeal shines with custom brickwork, stone accents, and a covered front porch. Inside, you’ll find an open-concept layout with laminate flooring, elegant fixtures, and designer touches. The spacious living, dining, and kitchen areas flow seamlessly together, ideal for entertaining. The kitchen features granite countertops, a stylish backsplash, a breakfast bar, and a wine nook with decorative ironwork. The first-floor primary suite offers comfort, while upstairs includes generously sized secondary bedrooms and a large game room. Step outside to enjoy the screened-in patio with tile flooring and string lights, plus a backyard with a custom walkway, added trees, and a play set. Other highlights include attic decking, upgraded shelving, and a fenced yard. Move-in ready with comfort, style, and thoughtful upgrades.

2. 2026-04-19
   historical
3. 2026-03-20
   price $379,900
4. 2026-03-10
   price $389,900
5. 2025-10-27
   price $399,900
6. 2025-10-07
   listed $400,000 Active

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast TX · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $8,366 · $697/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $8,366 · $697/mo
• Expected delta: $0/yr ($0/mo · 0.0%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 6/10 Major FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 70% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 1/10 Low
• 🌡 Heat 9/10 Extreme 7 d/yr ≥111°F today · 23 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 8/10 Severe 99% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 3/10 Moderate 3 unhealthy d/yr today · 3 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $83,852
• − Mortgage interest: −$20,446
• − Property taxes: −$8,366
• − Insurance: −$1,825
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$6,708
• − Management: −$6,708
• − HOA: −$828
• − Depreciation: −$10,618
• Taxable income: $28,353
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$6,805
• After-tax cash flow: $25,450/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Spring ISD
• NCES district ID: 4841220
• Math proficiency: 19% ▼ -13.00%
• Reading proficiency: 26% ▼ -6.00%
• Median HH income: $51,584
• Composite: 20.12/100
• National rank: #8643
• State rank: #730 of 826 in TX

Livability — Houston

• Score: 74/100
• State rank: #184
• US rank: #4771

Category grades

Amenities A+ Commute A Cost of living A+ Crime F Employment C Housing A+ Health & safety A- User ratings F

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• City population: 3,226,434
• Population (ZIP): 12,289

Population outlook (Harris County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 5,571,493 people
• By 2030: 6,089,821 · +9.3%
• By 2040: 7,142,806 · +28.2%
• By 2050: 8,185,864 · +46.9%
• By 2075: 10,574,329 · +89.8%
• By 2100: 12,109,958 · +117.4%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Highly diverse neighborhood (Simpson 0.72)
• Race & ethnicity: Hispanic / Latino 35% Black 31% White 23% Two or more races 11% Asian 6% Native American 1%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 27%
• Common ancestry: Scandinavian 2% Romanian 1% Serbian 1%
• Foreign-born: 21% · Canada, Vietnam, China
• Languages at home: 65% English-only · Spanish 28% Vietnamese 4% Chinese 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Harris

• 2024 margin: Lean D (+5.5) · D 52.0% · R 46.4% · Other 1.6%
• 2008→2024 swing: +3.9pp toward D · 2008: 1.6pp · 2024: 5.5pp
• All cycles: 2024: D+5.5 2020: D+13.3 2016: D+12.4 2012: D+0.1 2008: D+1.6

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -2.14%
• Current HPI: 206.5475
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.95%
• F500 in state: 110

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in TX)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Energy	16	$1,198B
▸Technology	5	$198B
▸Engineering / Construction	4	$72B
▸Energy Services	3	$60B
▸Utilities	3	$41B
▸Healthcare	2	$330B

Price history

-8.8% since first listed

6 events — show timeline

• 2026-04-22 Listed $365,000 HARMLS
• 2026-04-19 Listing Removed — HARMLS
• 2026-03-20 Price Changed $379,900 HARMLS
• 2026-03-10 Price Changed $389,900 HARMLS
• 2025-10-27 Price Changed $399,900 HARMLS
• 2025-10-07 Listed $400,000 HARMLS

Property tax history

+34.5%/yr

Latest (2025): $8,366 · +6.7% YoY. Source: county tax records.