1406 Circle Dr · Mission, TX 78572

$109,900

2 bd · 1.5 ba · 779 sqft · Townhouse · 357 Days on market

Built 1989 Good condition 2,897 sqft lot $141/sqft · 23% below area Est $143k · 23% under $125/mo HOA · 13% of rent

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Why this score? — see what drove the D grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• ARV discount +15.0/15.0
• Cash flow +8.4/30.0
• 1% rule +4.0/10.0
• Condition / age +4.0/5.0
• Livability +3.8/5.0
• Schools +2.8/10.0
• Rent growth +2.7/5.0
• DSCR +2.3/10.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

This beautiful 2-bedroom, 1.5-bathroom condominium in Mission, TX has been completely remodeled and features stunning granite countertops, new appliances, and zebra blinds on the windows. The condo is located within a golf community & has a spacious covered patio area in the back. It's conveniently located just minutes away from Expressway 83, making it easy to get anywhere you need to go. Don't miss out on the opportunity to make this your perfect home!

Key facts

• Completely remodeled
• Zebra blinds
• New appliances

Tags

• COMPLETELY REMODELED
• GRANITE COUNTERTOPS
• NEW APPLIANCES
• ZEBRA BLINDS
• SPACIOUS COVERED PATIO

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 2-bed/1.5-bath townhouse listed at $110k. Condition is rated good.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-99 ($-1k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $96k (13.1% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $99k (9.6% below list).
• Recommended offer: $96k (13.1% below list) — sets the bar for cash-flow.
• Cap rate 5.2% vs local median 3.7% in Mission — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 75/100 on livability (#148 in TX, #4,155 nationally) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+, health & safety A+; Watch: amenities F, commute F, employment D-.
• Mission CISD (urban): math 15% / reading 28% proficiency, ranked #775 of 826 in TX (top 94%) — low school quality limits family demand, transient renter base, plan for 1-2y turnover; 78% free/reduced lunch — lower-income household profile, screen leases tightly.
• Zoned schools: Leal El (math 12% / reading 25%, grade F, #3,759 of 4,322 statewide, top 88%, 463 students, 89% FRL); White J H (math 11% / reading 28%, grade F, #1,445 of 1,662 statewide, top 88%, 847 students, 90% FRL); Mission H S (math 18% / reading 28%, grade F, #1,348 of 1,632 statewide, top 83%, 2,218 students, 91% FRL).
• Market conditions: Rents flat; 1115 active listings in the ZIP; 20 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals lingering (median 62d on market — plan ~5-8 weeks vacancy on turnover, expect pricing pressure); 80% of comp listings sitting > 30 days — soft ceiling on asking rent; 7,378 units permitted in Hidalgo County in 2024 (641 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $760 of loan paydown is wiped out by about $3k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Hidalgo County population projected at +28% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 357 days — a 12% lower offer ($97k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 9 sale attempts since 8y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.

Recommended offer $95,540 (13.1% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. It's been on market 357 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 13% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
3. What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
4. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
5. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
6. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
7. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
8. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
9. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.90% ✗
• Cap rate: 5.21%
• Cash-on-cash: -3.87%
• DSCR: 0.83
• GRM: 9.2

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $142,577
• List price: $109,900
• Delta: -22.92%
• Verdict: UNDERPRICED
• Comps: 20 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 12 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
1709 W B St	0.52mi	2/2.0	850 (+9%)	9mo	$166,500	$196	50
1710 W B St	0.54mi	2/2.0	833 (+7%)	13mo	$161,000	$193	50
1615 W B St	0.54mi	2/2.0	851 (+9%)	14mo	$159,000	$187	46
1521 W B St	0.58mi	2/2.0	852 (+9%)	16mo	$149,900	$176	42
1519 W B St	0.58mi	2/2.0	852 (+9%)	18mo	$149,900	$176	40
1523 W B St	0.57mi	2/2.0	852 (+9%)	20mo	$149,900	$176	39
1525 W B St	0.57mi	2/2.0	852 (+9%)	20mo	$149,900	$176	39
1517 W B St	0.58mi	2/2.0	852 (+9%)	20mo	$149,900	$176	38
1603 W B St	0.56mi	2/2.0	850 (+9%)	23mo	$149,900	$176	37
1507 W B St	0.60mi	2/2.0	880 (+13%)	16mo	$158,000	$180	36
1628 W B St	0.55mi	2/2.0	887 (+14%)	21mo	$166,000	$187	31
1700 W B St	0.55mi	2/2.0	887 (+14%)	23mo	$166,000	$187	30

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 0.93% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -25.5%
• Equity multiple: 0.15×
• Total profit: $-26,066
• Equity at exit: $16,386

10-year hold

• IRR: -31.4%
• Equity multiple: -0.25×
• Total profit: $-38,449
• Equity at exit: $9,502

Cash invested: $30,772 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Texas: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+5
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day notice; statewide preemption; one of the fastest eviction climates; Travis County (Austin) slightly slower.

Methodology + full state rankings →

Active competition Active MLS

• For sale now: 2 active · 1 under contract
• Median asking: $162,000 ($195/sqft)
• Median days on market: 12 d
• This list price: lowest-priced of the active set
• ARV vs active asking: -6.1% vs current asking $/sqft

Closed sales set the value; these active listings set current market conditions and a practical price ceiling.

ZIP-level market 78572

• Home prices YoY: -22.9%
• Rents YoY: 0.9%
• Active inventory: 1115
• Price-to-rent: 9.2×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $994 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$576
• Tax est. 1.5%: −$137 /mo · $1,648/yr
• Insurance: −$46
• HOA: −$125
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$209
• Net cashflow: $-99

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,120

Max offer price $95,540

Occupancy floor —

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $-23	-5% $-61	+0% $-99	+5% $-137	+10% $-175
Rent	-10% $-178	-5% $-139	+0% $-99	+5% $-60	+10% $-21
Rate	-1.0pp $-44	-0.5pp $-71	base $-99	+0.5pp $-128	+1.0pp $-157

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $27,475
• Closing costs: $3,297
• Club membership (one-time): —
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 20 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
1510 River Bend Dr Mission, TX	1.0	2.0	1009	$795	$0.79	4d	1	0.05mi
1804 Oasis Ave Mission, TX	2.0	1.0	899	$788	$0.88	62d	2	0.13mi
1800 Oasis Dr Unit 101 Mission, TX	2.0	1.0	905	$725	$0.80	119d	1	0.14mi
1805 Oasis Dr Apt 4 Mission, TX	3.0	2.0	828	$900	$1.09	6d	1	0.14mi
1802 Oasis Dr Unit 202 Mission, TX	2.0	1.0	893	$850	$0.95	139d	1	0.15mi
1525 Oasis Dr Unit 4 Mission, TX	3.0	2.0	1100	$825	$0.75	110d	1	0.22mi
1523 Oasis Ave #4 Mission, TX	3.0	2.0	1095	$925	$0.84	62d	1	0.22mi
1605 W B St Mission, TX	2.0	2.0	814	$1,200	$1.47	139d	1	0.56mi
1525 W B St Mission, TX	2.0	2.0	852	$1,200	$1.41	62d	1	0.57mi
1606 W B St Mission, TX	3.0	2.0	862	$1,100	$1.28	62d	1	0.58mi
1513 W B St Mission, TX	3.0	2.0	868	$1,300	$1.50	110d	1	0.59mi
1513 W B St Mission, TX	3.0	2.0	868	$1,300	$1.50	139d	1	0.59mi
1513 W B St Mission, TX	3.0	2.0	868	$1,300	$1.50	62d	1	0.59mi
401 Bertha Ave Unit 2 Mission, TX	2.0	2.0	950	$1,300	$1.37	139d	1	0.74mi
401 Bertha Ave Unit 3 Mission, TX	2.0	2.0	1050	$1,200	$1.14	115d	1	0.74mi
1500 Industrial Way Unit A Mission, TX	2.0	1.0	990	$990	$1.00	139d	1	0.94mi
825 W First St Unit 4 Mission, TX	2.0	1.0	760	$675	$0.89	62d	1	1.16mi
102 S Holland Ave Mission, TX	1.0	1.0	700	$650	$0.93	6d	1	1.24mi
1001 Hidalgo St Mission, TX	2.0	1.0	910	$1,300	$1.43	62d	1	1.38mi
907 Hidden Hills St #1 Mission, TX	2.0	2.0	907	$1,250	$1.38	6d	1	1.49mi

Listing history 50 events

1. 2026-09-24
   days on market $109,900 Active 357 DOM
2. 2026-09-23
   days on market $109,900 Active 356 DOM
3. 2026-09-22
   days on market $109,900 Active 355 DOM
4. 2026-09-21
   days on market $109,900 Active 354 DOM
5. 2026-09-20
   days on market $109,900 Active 353 DOM
6. 2026-09-19
   days on market $109,900 Active 352 DOM
7. 2026-09-18
   days on market $109,900 Active 351 DOM
8. 2026-09-17
   days on market $109,900 Active 350 DOM
9. 2026-09-16
   days on market $109,900 Active 349 DOM
10. 2026-09-15
    days on market $109,900 Active 348 DOM
11. 2026-09-14
    days on market $109,900 Active 347 DOM
12. 2026-09-13
    days on market $109,900 Active 346 DOM
13. 2026-09-12
    days on market $109,900 Active 345 DOM
14. 2026-09-11
    days on market $109,900 Active 344 DOM
15. 2026-09-05
    days on market $109,900 Active 338 DOM
16. 2026-09-04
    days on market $109,900 Active 337 DOM
17. 2026-09-03
    days on market $109,900 Active 336 DOM
18. 2026-08-31
    days on market $109,900 Active 333 DOM
19. 2026-08-30
    days on market $109,900 Active 332 DOM
20. 2026-08-29
    days on market $109,900 Active 331 DOM
21. 2026-08-28
    days on market $109,900 Active 330 DOM
22. 2026-08-27
    days on market $109,900 Active 329 DOM
23. 2026-08-26
    days on market $109,900 Active 328 DOM
24. 2026-08-25
    days on market $109,900 Active 327 DOM
25. 2026-08-24
    days on market $109,900 Active 326 DOM
26. 2026-08-23
    days on market $109,900 Active 325 DOM
27. 2026-08-22
    days on market $109,900 Active 324 DOM
28. 2026-08-21
    days on market $109,900 Active 323 DOM
29. 2026-08-20
    days on market $109,900 Active 322 DOM
30. 2026-08-19
    days on market $109,900 Active 321 DOM
31. 2026-08-18
    days on market $109,900 Active 320 DOM
32. 2026-08-17
    days on market $109,900 Active 319 DOM
33. 2026-08-16
    days on market $109,900 Active 318 DOM
34. 2026-08-15
    days on market $109,900 Active 317 DOM
35. 2026-08-15
    days on market $109,900 Active 316 DOM
36. 2026-08-13
    days on market $109,900 Active 315 DOM
37. 2026-08-12
    days on market $109,900 Active 314 DOM
38. 2026-08-11
    days on market $109,900 Active 313 DOM
39. 2026-08-10
    days on market $109,900 Active 312 DOM
40. 2026-08-09
    days on market $109,900 Active 311 DOM
41. 2026-08-08
    days on market $109,900 Active 310 DOM
42. 2026-08-07
    days on market $109,900 Active 309 DOM
43. 2026-08-06
    days on market $109,900 Active 308 DOM
44. 2026-08-05
    days on market $109,900 Active 307 DOM
45. 2026-08-04
    days on market $109,900 Active 306 DOM
46. 2026-08-03
    days on market $109,900 Active 305 DOM
47. 2026-07-31
    days on market $109,900 Active 302 DOM
48. 2026-07-29
    days on market $109,900 Active 300 DOM
49. 2026-07-27
    days on market $109,900 Active 298 DOM
50. 2026-07-25
    days on market $109,900 Active 296 DOM

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $11,928
• − Mortgage interest: −$6,156
• − Property taxes: −$1,648
• − Insurance: −$550
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$954
• − Management: −$954
• − HOA: −$1,500
• − Depreciation: −$3,197
• Taxable loss: −$3,032
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$728
• After-tax cash flow: $-463/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Condition & rehab AI · 12 photos

Good 80/100 Cosmetic rehab Est. rehab $3,895–$11,685 screening

This beautifully remodeled 2-bedroom, 1.5-bathroom condominium in Mission, TX is move-in ready with granite countertops, new appliances, and zebra blinds. It's located in a golf community and is conveniently located near Expressway 83.

Value-add opportunities

• Both Paint exterior — Enhances curb appeal and resale value ↑
• Both Replace zebra blinds with modern curtains — Modernizes the look and adds value ↑
• Both Install smart home devices — Improves convenience and adds value ↑

ⓘ Rehab cost is a screening estimate — Cosmetic scope × the home's square footage at US $/sqft rules of thumb (the same model as the Flip Finder). Get contractor quotes + a written scope before underwriting.

F Composite school gradezoned avg 28/100

Zoned Schools

Elementary Leal El F TX #3,759/4,322 Nat'l #34,688/41,679 Middle White J H F TX #1,445/1,662 Nat'l #11,801/14,009 High Mission Collegiate H S F TX #652/1,632 Nat'l #6,890/17,239

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Mission CISD
• NCES district ID: 4831040
• Math proficiency: 15% ▼ -35.00%
• Reading proficiency: 28% ▼ -15.00%
• Median HH income: $32,855
• Composite: 17.47/100
• National rank: #9061
• State rank: #775 of 826 in TX

B Composite livability gradescore 75/100

Livability — Mission

• Score: 75/100
• State rank: #148
• US rank: #4155

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime A- Employment D- Housing A+ Health & safety A+ User ratings B-

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Mission, TX
• County: Hidalgo County · 955,232 people
• City population: 78,024
• Metro: McAllen-Edinburg-Mission, TX
• Population (ZIP): 78,024
• Household income: $54,298
• Rent vs Own: 29.0% rent · 71.0% own
• Severe rent burden: 8% of renters

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Population outlook (Hidalgo County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 955,232 people
• By 2030: 1,009,774 · +5.7%
• By 2040: 1,120,332 · +17.3%
• By 2050: 1,225,036 · +28.2%
• By 2075: 1,439,189 · +50.7%
• By 2100: 1,533,429 · +60.5%

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Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly Hispanic (85%)
• Race & ethnicity: Hispanic / Latino 85% Two or more races 47% White 12% Asian 2%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 80%
• Common ancestry: Slovak 1% Portuguese 0%
• Foreign-born: 28% · Canada, South Korea
• Languages at home: 22% English-only · Spanish 76%

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Political lean MEDSL · Hidalgo

• 2024 margin: Toss-up / Even · D 48.1% · R 51.0%
• 2008→2024 swing: -41.6pp toward R · 2008: 38.7pp · 2024: -2.9pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+2.9 2020: D+17.1 2016: D+40.5 2012: D+41.8 2008: D+38.7

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -62.35%
• Current HPI: 209.3573
• Rent YoY: ▲ 0.93%
• Metro: McAllen-Edinburg-Mission, TX
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.95%
• F500 in state: 110

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Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in TX)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Energy	16	$1,198B
▸Technology	5	$198B
▸Engineering / Construction	4	$72B
▸Energy Services	3	$60B
▸Utilities	3	$41B
▸Healthcare	2	$330B

Price history

+119.8% since first listed

25 events — show timeline

• 2025-10-02 Listed $109,900 MCALLENMLS
• 2025-04-03 Price Changed $109,900 MCALLENMLS
• 2025-01-09 Listed $114,900 MCALLENMLS
• 2024-10-01 Price Changed $114,900 MCALLENMLS
• 2024-08-05 Listed $117,000 MCALLENMLS
• 2024-04-12 Relisted — MCALLENMLS
• 2024-03-26 Pending — MCALLENMLS
• 2024-03-01 Price Changed $114,900 MCALLENMLS
• 2024-01-29 Listed $117,500 MCALLENMLS
• 2023-10-18 Relisted — MCALLENMLS
• 2023-10-01 Pending — MCALLENMLS
• 2023-09-21 Contingent — MCALLENMLS
• 2023-09-11 Price Changed $117,500 MCALLENMLS
• 2023-05-08 Listed $119,900 MCALLENMLS
• 2022-10-20 Sold (MLS) — MCALLENMLS
• 2022-10-07 Pending — MCALLENMLS
• 2022-09-29 Contingent — MCALLENMLS
• 2022-09-05 Listed $73,500 MCALLENMLS
• 2019-09-03 Price Changed $40,000 MCALLENMLS
• 2019-08-29 Sold (MLS) — MCALLENMLS
• 2019-08-17 Pending — MCALLENMLS
• 2019-08-16 Price Changed $47,500 MCALLENMLS
• 2019-08-07 Contingent — MCALLENMLS
• 2019-05-06 Price Changed $47,500 MCALLENMLS
• 2018-12-12 Listed $50,000 MCALLENMLS