14915 Four Winds Dr · Houston, TX 77489

$233,786

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,560 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 2 Days on market

Built 1976 10,480 sqft lot Est $223k · at est. $29/mo HOA · 1% of rent

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Why this score? — see what drove the D- grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +9.8/30.0
• ARV discount +5.3/15.0
• Appreciation +4.7/10.0
• Schools +4.5/10.0
• Livability +3.7/5.0
• 1% rule +3.4/10.0
• DSCR +2.8/10.0
• Rent growth +2.6/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0

Listing remarks MLS

CORPORATE OWNED 4 BEDROOM,WONDERFUL OPPORTUNITY FOR A LARGE FAMILY,NEEDS COSMETIC REPAIR,LOTS OF WINDOWS,FIREPLACE,HUGE YARD FOR A POOL,A MINUTE FROM THE TOLL ROAD.GREAT INVESTMENT TO BE SOLD AS-IS!

Key facts

• 0.24 acre lot
• Built 1976

Property features AI

Finance

• HOA & community: Willow Park HOA with a $29 monthly fee

Exterior

• Home design: Residential property; Single-story (first-floor living areas)
• Construction: Brick construction; Built in 1976; Composition roof; Slab foundation
• Exterior features: Located in a subdivision

Interior

• Kitchen: Kitchen on the first floor (9 x 10)
• Bedrooms: Primary bedroom on the first floor (11 x 16); Bedroom on the first floor (11 x 14); Bedroom on the first floor (10 x 11); Bedroom on the first floor (10 x 11)
• Bathrooms: Two full bathrooms
• Heating & cooling: Central heating (electric); Central air conditioning (electric)
• Interior features: One fireplace; Seven total rooms

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath single-family listed at $234k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-216 ($-3k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $196k (16.3% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $195k (16.5% below list).
• Recommended offer: $195k (16.5% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Cap rate 5.5% vs local median 3.1% in Houston — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 74/100 on livability (#184 in TX, #4,771 nationally) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: amenities A+, cost of living A+, housing A+; Watch: crime F.
• Fort Bend ISD (suburban): math 44% / reading 53% proficiency, ranked #140 of 826 in TX (top 17%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Zoned schools: Christa Mcauliffe Middle (math 9% / reading 20%, grade F, #1,583 of 1,662 statewide, top 96%, 835 students, 94% FRL); Willowridge H S (math 12% / reading 29%, grade F, #1,389 of 1,632 statewide, top 86%, 1,319 students, 87% FRL) — zoned schools average 91% FRL vs 35% district-wide (56 pts higher); higher-poverty schools than district average — tighter screening recommended.
• Zoned-school proficiency averages 18% at this address vs 48% district-wide (-31 pts) — the specific schools serving this property underperform the Fort Bend ISD average; the district grade overstates school quality for this exact location.
• Market conditions: Rents flat; 186 active listings in the ZIP; 14 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 17d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); 12,093 units permitted in Fort Bend County in 2024 (815 in 5+ unit buildings).
• This rent runs 31% of the median local income ($75k/yr) — at the standard rent-burdened threshold; future hikes will face affordability resistance.

Forward outlook

• In year one you build about $328 of equity ($2k loan paydown + $-1k appreciation (-0.6% local appreciation)).
• Fort Bend County population projected at +75% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.

Negotiation context

• Only 2 days on market — expect competitive offers; lowballing is unlikely to land.
• 2 sale attempts since 17y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.

Risks & watch-outs

• Watch-outs: flood insurance adds $66/mo.
• Climate carrying-cost: major flood risk; severe wind risk, 99% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→23/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $195,272 (16.5% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. Built in 1976 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
3. What's the actual annual flood-insurance premium (NFIP or private), and is the property in a SFHA with mandatory coverage?
4. What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
5. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
6. Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
7. Crime grade is F in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
8. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
9. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
10. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
11. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.84% ✗
• Cap rate: 5.52%
• Cash-on-cash: -2.74%
• DSCR: 0.88
• GRM: 10.0

CMA / ARV

• ARV (on-the-fly): $223,080
• Comps found: 12

Show comp detail 12 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
15043 Four Winds Dr	0.14mi	3/2.0	1,612 (+3%)	6mo	$273,000	$169	83
7018 Roberson Rd	0.19mi	3/2.5	1,670 (+7%)	7mo	$220,000	$132	71
7027 Dickson Way	0.16mi	3/2.0	1,782 (+14%)	3mo	$245,000	$137	66
6734 Indian Lake Dr	0.50mi	3/2.0	1,654 (+6%)	4mo	$230,000	$139	63
14602 Steeplechase Dr	0.59mi	3/2.0	1,612 (+3%)	7mo	$165,000	$102	61
7612 Goudin Dr	0.67mi	3/2.5	1,699 (+9%)	2mo	$165,000	$97	50
6618 Castleview Ln	0.74mi	4/2.0 (+1)	1,458 (-6%)	1mo	$260,000	$178	49
7458 Bahia Ln	0.60mi	3/2.0	1,341 (-14%)	1mo	$228,000	$170	48
6706 Castleview Ln	0.70mi	3/2.0	1,364 (-13%)	2mo	$195,000	$143	44
14603 Chase Village Dr	0.62mi	3/2.0	1,763 (+13%)	10mo	$280,000	$159	42
15439 Indian Woods Dr	0.72mi	4/2.0 (+1)	1,428 (-8%)	9mo	$268,000	$188	40
15406 Appleridge Dr	0.65mi	4/2.0 (+1)	1,342 (-14%)	10mo	$155,000	$115	33

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-0.55% appreciation · 0.34% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -11.0%
• Equity multiple: 0.52×
• Total profit: $-31,567
• Equity at exit: $61,513

10-year hold

• IRR: -6.8%
• Equity multiple: 0.38×
• Total profit: $-40,473
• Equity at exit: $69,031

Cash invested: $65,460 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Texas: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+5
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day notice; statewide preemption; one of the fastest eviction climates; Travis County (Austin) slightly slower.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 77489

• Home prices YoY: -0.2%
• Rents YoY: 0.3%
• Active inventory: 186
• Price-to-rent: 10.0×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,953 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,226
• Tax from tax record: −$340 /mo · $4,079/yr
• Insurance: −$97
• Flood insurance flood zone: −$66 /mo · $798/yr
• HOA: −$29
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$410
• Net cashflow: $-216

Break-even live

Break-even rent $2,226

Max offer price $195,606

Occupancy floor —

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $-84	-5% $-150	+0% $-216	+5% $-282	+10% $-348
Rent	-10% $-370	-5% $-293	+0% $-216	+5% $-139	+10% $-62
Rate	-1.0pp $-98	-0.5pp $-157	base $-216	+0.5pp $-277	+1.0pp $-338

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $58,446
• Closing costs: $7,014
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 14 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
13960 Hillcroft St Unit 2174 Houston, TX	2.0	2.0	1332	$1,570	$1.18	0d	1	0.70mi
13960 Hillcroft St Unit 425 Houston, TX	2.0	2.0	1332	$1,540	$1.16	8d	1	0.70mi
13960 Hillcroft St Unit 14017 Houston, TX	2.0	2.0	1332	$1,540	$1.16	16d	1	0.70mi
6610 Rowell Ct Missouri City, TX	3.0	2.0	1753	$2,056	$1.17	6d	1	0.70mi
13939 Hillcroft Ave Unit 13972 Houston, TX	3.0	2.0	1404	$2,164	$1.54	21d	1	0.88mi
13939 Hillcroft Ave Houston, TX	1.0–3.0	1.0–2.0	985	$2,254	$2.29	4d	22	0.88mi
13939 Hillcroft Ave Unit 13976 Houston, TX	2.0	2.0	1089	$1,703	$1.56	21d	1	0.88mi
6406 Summer Ridge Dr Missouri City, TX	3.0	2.0	1624	$1,958	$1.21	3d	1	0.88mi
15703 Baybriar Dr Missouri City, TX	3.0	2.0	1252	$1,615	$1.29	20d	1	0.96mi
507 Whippoorwill Dr Missouri City, TX	3.0	2.0	1970	$1,925	$0.98	44d	1	1.07mi
15823 Baybriar Dr Missouri City, TX	3.0	2.0	1335	$1,641	$1.23	6d	1	1.12mi
6023 Heatherbrook Dr Houston, TX	3.0	2.0	1474	$1,899	$1.29	0d	1	1.37mi
16211 Corsair Rd Houston, TX	3.0	2.0	1139	$1,813	$1.59	25d	1	1.44mi
712 Beechbend Dr Missouri City, TX	4.0	2.5	2245	$2,250	$1.00	21d	1	1.47mi

HOA detail

• Monthly dues: $29 · $348/yr
• Likely covers: pool

Listing history 3 events

1. 2026-06-18
   days on market $233,786 Active 2 DOM
2. 2026-06-17
   remarks 699-char remark
3. 2026-06-17
   listed $233,786 Active 1 DOM

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast TX · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $4,079 · $340/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $4,278 · $357/mo
• Expected delta: +$199/yr (+$17/mo · 4.9%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 7/10 Severe FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 95% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 3/10 Moderate
• 🌡 Heat 9/10 Extreme 7 d/yr ≥110°F today · 23 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 9/10 Extreme 99% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 3/10 Moderate 2 unhealthy d/yr today · 3 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $23,433
• − Mortgage interest: −$13,096
• − Property taxes: −$4,079
• − Insurance: −$1,966
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,875
• − Management: −$1,875
• − HOA: −$348
• − Depreciation: −$6,801
• Taxable loss: −$6,607
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$1,586
• After-tax cash flow: $-1,008/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Fort Bend ISD
• NCES district ID: 4819650
• Math proficiency: 44% ▼ -15.00%
• Reading proficiency: 53% ▼ -4.00%
• Median HH income: $82,360
• Composite: 44.61/100
• National rank: #2779
• State rank: #140 of 826 in TX

Livability — Houston

• Score: 74/100
• State rank: #184
• US rank: #4771

Category grades

Amenities A+ Commute A Cost of living A+ Crime F Employment C Housing A+ Health & safety A- User ratings F

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Houston, TX
• County: Fort Bend County · 836,777 people
• City population: 3,226,434
• Metro: Houston-The Woodlands-Sugar Land, TX
• Population (ZIP): 39,292
• Household income: $74,689
• Rent vs Own: 22.9% rent · 77.1% own
• Severe rent burden: 1121.0

Population outlook (Fort Bend County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 1,004,526 people
• By 2030: 1,153,104 · +14.8%
• By 2040: 1,453,718 · +44.7%
• By 2050: 1,753,781 · +74.6%
• By 2075: 2,455,772 · +144.5%
• By 2100: 2,930,528 · +191.7%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Majority Black (60%)
• Race & ethnicity: Black 60% Hispanic / Latino 29% Two or more races 13% White 4% Asian 3%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 17%
• Foreign-born: 16% · Canada, Vietnam
• Languages at home: 73% English-only · Spanish 22% Vietnamese 1% Other Asian/Pacific 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Fort Bend

• 2024 margin: Toss-up / Even · D 49.5% · R 47.9% · Other 2.6%
• 2008→2024 swing: +4.0pp toward D · 2008: -2.4pp · 2024: 1.6pp
• All cycles: 2024: D+1.6 2020: D+10.6 2016: D+6.6 2012: R+6.8 2008: R+2.4

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -0.55%
• Current HPI: 288.1306
• Rent YoY: ▲ 0.34%
• Metro: Houston-The Woodlands-Sugar Land, TX
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.95%
• F500 in state: 110

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in TX)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Energy	16	$1,198B
▸Technology	5	$198B
▸Engineering / Construction	4	$72B
▸Energy Services	3	$60B
▸Utilities	3	$41B
▸Healthcare	2	$330B

Price history

+325.8% since first listed

8 events — show timeline

• 2026-06-16 Listed $233,786 HARMLS
• 2010-02-03 Sold (Public Records) — Public Records
• 2009-03-05 Sold (MLS) — HARMLS
• 2009-02-13 Listing Removed — HARMLS
• 2009-02-07 Listed $54,900 HARMLS
• 2008-12-24 Sold (Public Records) — Public Records
• 2007-04-04 Sold (Public Records) — Public Records
• 2001-05-30 Sold (Public Records) — Public Records

Property tax history

+4.0%/yr

Latest (2025): $4,079 · -10.8% YoY. Source: county tax records.