413 Plum Branch Rd · Concord, VA 24504

$167,500

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,248 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 60 Days on market

Built 1994 2.50 ac lot $134/sqft · 23% below area Est $218k · 23% under

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Why this score? — see what drove the C grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +18.2/30.0
• ARV discount +15.0/15.0
• DSCR +5.7/10.0
• Schools +5.2/10.0
• 1% rule +4.9/10.0
• Rent growth +3.6/5.0
• Livability +3.2/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

One of the last remaining chances to grab a home on over 2 acres of land for under $170k in the Rustburg School District. Lots of outdoor space for homesteading, raising chickens or goats and a large garden (just keep the goats out of it). There is a outdoor man cave with electricity and a loft with bed. Looking for a place for additional family members too? 415 Plumb Branch can also be purchased at the same time. Opportunity is knocking, you better answer the door.

Key facts

• 2.5 acre lot
• Built 1994
• Listed 60 days

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath single-family listed at $168k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $150 ($2k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $166k (1.2% below list).
• Recommended offer: $162k (3.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Cap rate 7.4% vs local median 2.9% in Concord — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 65/100 on livability (#335 in VA) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: crime A+, cost of living A+; Watch: employment C-, health & safety C-, amenities F.
• Campbell County Public School District (rural): math 55% / reading 68% proficiency, ranked #55 of 131 in VA (top 42%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease.
• Market conditions: Rents rising fast (+4.6%/yr); 110 active listings in the ZIP; 1 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; 315 units permitted in Campbell County in 2024 (51 in 5+ unit buildings).
• This rent runs 38% of the median local income ($53k/yr) — at the standard rent-burdened threshold; future hikes will face affordability resistance.

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $1k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $5k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Campbell County population projected to shrink 6% by 2050 — rents likely to lag national; underwrite the cash flow, not the appreciation.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 60 days — a 3% lower offer ($162k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• Current owner paid $56k; list at $168k implies a 199% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: moderate wildfire risk; extreme-heat days projected 7→18/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $162,475 (3.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 60 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 3% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
3. Schools are B-rated — typically a magnet for longer-tenancy family renters. What's the average tenant stay here, and is there a school-zone premium baked into asking?
4. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
5. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
6. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.99% ✗
• Cap rate: 7.37%
• Cash-on-cash: 3.85%
• DSCR: 1.17
• GRM: 8.4

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $218,352
• List price: $167,500
• Delta: -23.29%
• Verdict: UNDERPRICED
• Comps: 15 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 4 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
233 Peach Tree Ln	0.10mi	3/2.0	1,320 (+6%)	10mo	$234,900	$178	78
211 Peach Tree Ln	0.18mi	3/2.0	1,288 (+3%)	18mo	$210,000	$163	71
191 Peach Tree Ln	0.19mi	3/2.0	1,120 (-10%)	19mo	$140,000	$125	58
595 Plum Branch Rd	0.18mi	3/1.5	1,064 (-15%)	21mo	$99,500	$94	48

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 4.56% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -8.5%
• Equity multiple: 0.68×
• Total profit: $-14,905
• Equity at exit: $24,975

10-year hold

• IRR: 2.9%
• Equity multiple: 1.23×
• Total profit: $10,629
• Equity at exit: $14,482

Cash invested: $46,900 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 55 Moderately Landlord-Leaning
• State Virginia: 55 Moderately Landlord-Leaning · D+2
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

VRLTA gives some tenant protections; Northern Virginia courts slower; rural VA landlord-leaning.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 24504

• Home prices YoY: -12.7%
• Rents YoY: 4.6%
• Active inventory: 110
• Price-to-rent: 8.4×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,656 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$878
• Tax est. 1.5%: −$209 /mo · $2,512/yr
• Insurance: −$70
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$348
• Net cashflow: $150

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,465

Max offer price $167,500

Occupancy floor 86%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $266	-5% $208	+0% $150	+5% $92	+10% $35
Rent	-10% $20	-5% $85	+0% $150	+5% $216	+10% $281
Rate	-1.0pp $235	-0.5pp $193	base $150	+0.5pp $107	+1.0pp $63

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $41,875
• Closing costs: $5,025
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 1 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
6138 Village Hwy Lynchburg, VA	3.0	2.0	1352	$2,045	$1.51	14d	1	1.02mi

Listing history 8 events

1. 2026-06-01
   status $167,500 Pending 60 DOM
2. 2026-05-31
   days on market $167,500 Active 60 DOM
3. 2026-05-30
   days on market $167,500 Active 59 DOM
4. 2026-04-20
   price $167,500 470-char remark

   Show marketing remark (470 chars)

   One of the last remaining chances to grab a home on over 2 acres of land for under $170k in the Rustburg School District. Lots of outdoor space for homesteading, raising chickens or goats and a large garden (just keep the goats out of it). There is a outdoor man cave with electricity and a loft with bed. Looking for a place for additional family members too? 415 Plumb Branch can also be purchased at the same time. Opportunity is knocking, you better answer the door.

5. 2026-03-30
   listed $174,900 Active 470-char remark

   Show marketing remark (470 chars)

   One of the last remaining chances to grab a home on over 2 acres of land for under $170k in the Rustburg School District. Lots of outdoor space for homesteading, raising chickens or goats and a large garden (just keep the goats out of it). There is a outdoor man cave with electricity and a loft with bed. Looking for a place for additional family members too? 415 Plumb Branch can also be purchased at the same time. Opportunity is knocking, you better answer the door.

6. 2005-11-10
   soldstatus $56,000
7. 2004-09-24
   soldstatus $59,655
8. 1994-01-21
   soldstatus $15,500

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 5/10 Major
• 🌡 Heat 5/10 Major 7 d/yr ≥101°F today · 18 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 2/10 Low 3% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 1 unhealthy d/yr today · 1 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $19,866
• − Mortgage interest: −$9,383
• − Property taxes: −$2,512
• − Insurance: −$838
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,589
• − Management: −$1,589
• − Depreciation: −$4,873
• Taxable loss: −$918
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$220
• After-tax cash flow: $2,024/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Campbell County Public School District
• NCES district ID: 5100600
• Math proficiency: 55% ▼ -29.00%
• Reading proficiency: 68% ▼ -11.00%
• Median HH income: $45,915
• Composite: 51.88/100
• National rank: #1656
• State rank: #55 of 131 in VA

Livability — Concord

• Score: 65/100
• State rank: #335
• US rank: #12864

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime A+ Employment C- Housing C+ Health & safety C- User ratings D+

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• County: Lynchburg City · 97,036 people
• Metro: Lynchburg, VA
• Population (ZIP): 9,632
• Household income: $52,571
• Rent vs Own: 46.4% rent · 53.6% own
• Severe rent burden: 552.0

Population outlook (Campbell County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 56,306 people
• By 2030: 56,366 · +0.1%
• By 2040: 55,406 · -1.6%
• By 2050: 53,011 · -5.9%
• By 2075: 45,932 · -18.4%
• By 2100: 36,029 · -36.0%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Diverse neighborhood (Simpson 0.57)
• Race & ethnicity: White 51% Black 40% Two or more races 6% Hispanic / Latino 4%
• Common ancestry: Italian 3% Lithuanian 1% Serbian 1%
• Foreign-born: 4% · Canada, China
• Languages at home: 95% English-only · Spanish 3% Chinese 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Campbell

• 2024 margin: Solid R (+48.6) · D 25.3% · R 73.9%
• 2008→2024 swing: -12.3pp toward R · 2008: -36.2pp · 2024: -48.6pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+48.6 2020: R+44.1 2016: R+47.2 2012: R+39.4 2008: R+36.2

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -33.39%
• Current HPI: 229.4423
• Rent YoY: ▲ 4.56%
• Metro: Lynchburg, VA
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 2.40%
• F500 in state: 50

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in VA)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Aerospace / Defense	4	$236B
▸Technology / Defense	3	$32B
▸Financial Services	2	$176B
▸Utilities	2	$27B
▸Insurance	2	$25B
▸Technology	2	$15B

Price history

+980.6% since first listed

5 events — show timeline

• 2026-04-20 Price Changed $167,500 LMLS
• 2026-03-30 Listed $174,900 LMLS
• 2005-11-10 Sold (Public Records) $56,000 Public Records
• 2004-09-24 Sold (Public Records) $59,655 Public Records
• 1994-01-21 Sold (Public Records) $15,500 Public Records

Property tax history

+0.2%/yr

Latest (2025): $34 · +0.0% YoY. Source: county tax records.