1525 Duke #51 · Livingston, CA 95334

$127,000

2 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,596 sqft · Manufactured · 31 Days on market

Built 2006 Est $152k · 16% under ↓ 2% since listing

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Why this score? — see what drove the B+ grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +30.0/30.0
• ARV discount +14.8/15.0
• DSCR +10.0/10.0
• 1% rule +9.9/10.0
• Livability +3.3/5.0
• Schools +2.8/10.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks

Welcome to 1525 Duke Drive in Livingston’s desirable Monte Cristo 55+ community! This spacious 2-bedroom with possible 3rd bedroom, 2-bath manufactured home offers approximately 1,596 square feet of comfortable and well-designed living space. Inside, you’ll find a bright open layout featuring a generous living area, formal dining space with abundant natural light, and a versatile den that can easily function as a third bedroom, home office, or hobby room. The kitchen offers ample cabinetry, plenty of counter space, perfect for everyday living. Has 2 large bedrooms and bathrooms. Has indoor laundry room with sink. Outside, enjoy covered parking, additional storage space, beautifu

Key facts

• Covered parking
• Clubhouse
• Community amenities

Tags

• INDOOR LAUNDRY ROOM
• COVERED PARKING
• COMMUNITY AMENITIES
• CLUBHOUSE
• SWIMMING POOL
• FITNESS AREA

Property features AI

Finance

• Other: Living area source reported as other; Property has one total story; Latitude 37.376178, Longitude -120.732407
• HOA & community: Part of an association; Senior community; Street lighting in neighborhood

Exterior

• Parking: Located in Monte Cristo park
• Utilities: Public sewer; District/public water
• Home design: Single-story mobile home; Mobile is approximately 13 ft. wide by 60 ft. long; Entry at front of home
• Construction: Mobile home remains on site; Year built reported from other source
• Exterior features: Community pool; Front yard

Interior

• Bathrooms: 2 full bathrooms
• Interior features: Front entry
• Laundry & utility: No laundry hook-ups on site

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 2-bed/2.0-bath manufactured listed at $127k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $616 ($7k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($2k rent vs $127k).
• Recommended offer: $123k (3.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Cap rate 12.1% vs local median 3.0% in Livingston — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 66/100 on livability (#359 in CA) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: housing A+, health & safety A+; Watch: employment C-, schools F, commute F.
• Merced Union High (urban): math 20% / reading 46% proficiency, ranked #301 of 517 in CA (top 58%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Market conditions: 46 active listings in the ZIP; 459 units permitted in Merced County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $878 of loan paydown is wiped out by about $4k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Merced County population projected at +12% by 2050 — modest demand growth; plan on rents tracking national, not racing it.
• At projected returns (-3.0% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $36k cash investment doubles in ~6 years — after that, you're playing with house money.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 31 days — a 3% lower offer ($123k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: major wildfire risk; extreme-heat days projected 8→19/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $123,190 (3.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 31 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 3% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
3. Schools are F-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
4. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
5. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
6. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.49% ✓
• Cap rate: 12.12%
• Cash-on-cash: 20.79%
• DSCR: 1.93
• GRM: 5.6

CMA / ARV

• ARV (on-the-fly): $151,620
• Comps found: 7

Show comp detail 7 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
1557 Monte Cristo Way	0.03mi	2/2.0	1,596 (0%)	6mo	$160,000	$100	93
1565 Queen Way	0.07mi	3/2.0 (+1)	1,736 (+9%)	6mo	$165,000	$95	72
1330 Queen Way #27	0.13mi	2/2.0	1,782 (+12%)	7mo	$144,000	$81	69
1470 Queen Way #17	0.10mi	2/2.0	1,782 (+12%)	11mo	$165,000	$93	67
1568 Queen Way	0.09mi	3/2.0 (+1)	1,404 (-12%)	5mo	$137,000	$98	67
824 Count Dr #1	0.06mi	2/2.0	1,793 (+12%)	14mo	$184,000	$103	65
825 Knights Ct	0.16mi	3/2.0 (+1)	1,808 (+13%)	10mo	$170,000	$94	56

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 13.2%
• Equity multiple: 1.53×
• Total profit: $18,697
• Equity at exit: $18,936

10-year hold

• IRR: 22.1%
• Equity multiple: 2.88×
• Total profit: $66,934
• Equity at exit: $10,981

Cash invested: $35,560 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 18 Strongly Tenant-Friendly
• State California: 18 Strongly Tenant-Friendly · D+13
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

AB1482 statewide rent cap (10% + CPI). Cities (SF/LA/Berkeley) layer stricter rules. Just-cause statewide.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 95334

• Active inventory: 46
• Price-to-rent: 5.6×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,891 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$666
• Tax est. 1.5%: −$159 /mo · $1,905/yr
• Insurance: −$53
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$397
• Net cashflow: $616

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,111

Max offer price $127,000

Occupancy floor 62%

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $31,750
• Closing costs: $3,810
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Listing history 17 events

1. 2026-06-18
   days on market $127,000 Active 31 DOM
2. 2026-06-17
   days on market $127,000 Active 30 DOM
3. 2026-06-16
   days on market $127,000 Active 29 DOM
4. 2026-06-15
   days on market $127,000 Active 28 DOM
5. 2026-06-14
   days on market $127,000 Active 26 DOM
6. 2026-06-13
   days on market $127,000 Active 25 DOM
7. 2026-06-10
   days on market $127,000 Active 23 DOM
8. 2026-06-09
   days on market $127,000 Active 22 DOM
9. 2026-06-08
   days on market $127,000 Active 21 DOM
10. 2026-06-07
    days on market $127,000 Active 20 DOM
11. 2026-06-03
    days on market $127,000 Active 16 DOM
12. 2026-06-02
    days on market $127,000 Active 15 DOM
13. 2026-06-01
    days on market $127,000 Active 14 DOM
14. 2026-05-31
    days on market $127,000 Active 13 DOM
15. 2026-05-30
    days on market $127,000 Active 12 DOM
16. 2026-05-21
    price $127,000
17. 2026-05-18
    listed $130,000 Active

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 7/10 Severe
• 🌡 Heat 7/10 Severe 8 d/yr ≥103°F today · 19 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 1/10 Low
• 🫁 Air quality 10/10 Extreme 34 unhealthy d/yr today · 35 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $22,692
• − Mortgage interest: −$7,114
• − Property taxes: −$1,905
• − Insurance: −$635
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,815
• − Management: −$1,815
• − Depreciation: −$3,695
• Taxable income: $5,713
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$1,371
• After-tax cash flow: $6,024/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Merced Union High
• NCES district ID: 0624660
• Math proficiency: 20% ▲ 3.00%
• Reading proficiency: 46% ▼ -1.00%
• Median HH income: $44,977
• Composite: 28.11/100
• National rank: #6823
• State rank: #301 of 517 in CA

Livability — Livingston

• Score: 66/100
• State rank: #359
• US rank: #12317

Category grades

Amenities B- Commute F Cost of living F Crime C Employment C- Housing A+ Health & safety A+ User ratings D-

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Livingston, CA
• Population (ZIP): 17,198

Population outlook (Merced County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 285,501 people
• By 2030: 293,437 · +2.8%
• By 2040: 308,808 · +8.2%
• By 2050: 321,011 · +12.4%
• By 2075: 338,497 · +18.6%
• By 2100: 330,493 · +15.8%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly Hispanic (70%)
• Race & ethnicity: Hispanic / Latino 70% Asian 18% White 10% Two or more races 9% Native American 1%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 69%
• Common ancestry: Russian 2% Lithuanian 1%
• Foreign-born: 38% · Canada
• Languages at home: 26% English-only · Spanish 57% Other Indo-European 16% Other Asian/Pacific 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Merced

• 2024 margin: Toss-up / Even · D 46.5% · R 50.9% · Other 2.6%
• 2008→2024 swing: -12.7pp toward R · 2008: 8.3pp · 2024: -4.4pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+4.4 2020: D+10.6 2016: D+7.9 2012: D+5.4 2008: D+8.3

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -237.01%
• Current HPI: 275.9339
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.21%
• F500 in state: 116

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in CA)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Technology	27	$1,492B
▸Financial Services	3	$174B
▸Retail	3	$44B
▸Insurance	3	$26B
▸Media / Entertainment	2	$115B
▸Pharmaceuticals / Biotech	2	$62B

Price history

-2.3% since first listed

2 events — show timeline

• 2026-05-21 Price Changed $127,000 CRMLS
• 2026-05-18 Listed $130,000 CRMLS