930 Brown St · Hamburg, AR 71646

$32,900

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,216 sqft · Manufactured public records · 106 Days on market

Built 2009 8,712 sqft lot

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Why this score? — see what drove the B- grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +30.0/30.0
• 1% rule +10.0/10.0
• DSCR +10.0/10.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• Livability +3.3/5.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Schools +2.1/10.0
• Appreciation +0.8/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

COME SEE THIS 3 BEDROOM 2 BATH MOBILE HOME LOCATED ON THE EDGE OF TOWN IN HARBURG ARKANSAS.

Key facts

• 8,712 sq ft lot
• Built 2009
• Listed 105 days

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath manufactured listed at $33k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $571 ($7k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($1k rent vs $33k).
• Recommended offer: $30k (9.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 66/100 on livability (#125 in AR) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, health & safety A+, housing B+; Watch: schools F, amenities F, commute F.
• Hamburg School District (town): math 24% / reading 26% proficiency, ranked #187 of 238 in AR (top 79%) — low school quality limits family demand, transient renter base, plan for 1-2y turnover; 67% free/reduced lunch — lower-income household profile, screen leases tightly.
• Market conditions: 27 active listings in the ZIP.

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $227 of loan paydown is wiped out by about $987 of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Ashley County population projected at -30% by 2050 — secular population decline; favor cash flow + early exit over multi-decade hold.
• At projected returns (-3.0% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $9k cash investment doubles in ~2 years — after that, you're playing with house money.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 106 days — a 9% lower offer ($30k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: major wind risk, 48% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→20/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $29,939 (9.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 106 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 9% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
3. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
4. Schools are F-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
5. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
6. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
7. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 3.07% ✓
• Cap rate: 27.13%
• Cash-on-cash: 74.40%
• DSCR: 4.31
• GRM: 2.7

CMA / ARV

No comps found within radius.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 74.2%
• Equity multiple: 4.37×
• Total profit: $31,063
• Equity at exit: $4,905

10-year hold

• IRR: 78.0%
• Equity multiple: 9.03×
• Total profit: $73,954
• Equity at exit: $2,845

Cash invested: $9,212 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 92 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Arkansas: 92 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+14
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

Only US state where non-payment is criminal. Strongly landlord-favorable; very few tenant protections.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 71646

• Home prices YoY: -4.9%
• Active inventory: 27
• Price-to-rent: 2.7×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,011 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$173
• Tax est. 1.5%: −$41 /mo · $494/yr
• Insurance: −$14
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$212
• Net cashflow: $571

Break-even live

Break-even rent $288

Max offer price $32,900

Occupancy floor 38%

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $8,225
• Closing costs: $987
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Listing history 17 events

1. 2026-06-19
   days on market $32,900 Active 106 DOM
2. 2026-06-18
   days on market $32,900 Active 105 DOM
3. 2026-06-17
   days on market $32,900 Active 104 DOM
4. 2026-06-16
   statusdays on market $32,900 Active 103 DOM
5. 2026-06-15
   days on market $32,900 Price Change 102 DOM
6. 2026-06-14
   days on market $32,900 Price Change 100 DOM
7. 2026-06-12
   days on market $32,900 Price Change 99 DOM
8. 2026-06-09
   pricestatusdays on market $32,900 Price Change 96 DOM
9. 2026-06-08
   days on market $36,900 Active 95 DOM
10. 2026-06-07
    days on market $36,900 Active 94 DOM
11. 2026-06-07
    days on market $36,900 Active 93 DOM
12. 2026-06-04
    days on market $36,900 Active 90 DOM
13. 2026-06-02
    days on market $36,900 Active 89 DOM
14. 2026-06-01
    days on market $36,900 Active 88 DOM
15. 2026-05-31
    days on market $36,900 Active 87 DOM
16. 2026-05-31
    days on market $36,900 Active 86 DOM
17. 2026-03-05
    listed $36,900 New Listing 91-char remark

    Show marketing remark (91 chars)

    COME SEE THIS 3 BEDROOM 2 BATH MOBILE HOME LOCATED ON THE EDGE OF TOWN IN HARBURG ARKANSAS.

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 3/10 Moderate FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 10% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 2/10 Low
• 🌡 Heat 6/10 Major 7 d/yr ≥110°F today · 20 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 6/10 Major 48% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 1/10 Low 0 unhealthy d/yr today · 0 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $12,130
• − Mortgage interest: −$1,843
• − Property taxes: −$494
• − Insurance: −$164
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$970
• − Management: −$970
• − Depreciation: −$957
• Taxable income: $6,731
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$1,615
• After-tax cash flow: $5,239/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Hamburg School District
• NCES district ID: 0500042
• Math proficiency: 24% ▼ -20.00%
• Reading proficiency: 26% ▼ -11.00%
• Median HH income: $35,669
• Composite: 20.69/100
• National rank: #8527
• State rank: #187 of 238 in AR

Livability — Hamburg

• Score: 66/100
• State rank: #125
• US rank: #11736

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime C Employment F Housing B+ Health & safety A+ User ratings A

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Hamburg, AR
• Population (ZIP): 6,683

Population outlook (Ashley County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 18,757 people
• By 2030: 17,541 · -6.5%
• By 2040: 15,243 · -18.7%
• By 2050: 13,136 · -30.0%
• By 2075: 8,901 · -52.5%
• By 2100: 5,626 · -70.0%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (74%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 74% Hispanic / Latino 13% Black 12% Two or more races 9%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 10%
• Common ancestry: Slovak 1%
• Foreign-born: 5% · Canada
• Languages at home: 92% English-only · Spanish 8%

Political lean MEDSL · Ashley

• 2024 margin: Solid R (+48.0) · D 25.2% · R 73.2% · Other 1.6%
• 2008→2024 swing: -19.9pp toward R · 2008: -28.1pp · 2024: -48.0pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+48.0 2020: R+43.2 2016: R+36.5 2012: R+25.4 2008: R+28.1

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -8.32%
• Current HPI: 161.0476
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.80%
• F500 in state: 10

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in AR)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Retail	1	$681B
▸Food / Agriculture	1	$53B
▸Retail / Energy	1	$22B
▸Transportation / Logistics	1	$12B
▸Energy	1	$4B

Price history

1 event — show timeline

• 2026-03-05 Listed $36,900 CARMLS