5176 E Goldfinch Cir · Sierra Vista Southeast, AZ 85650

$34,900

2 bd · 2.0 ba · 980 sqft · Manufactured public records · 153 Days on market

Built 1974 6,360 sqft lot $36/sqft · 77% below area $45/mo HOA · 3% of rent

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Why this score? — see what drove the D grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +15.0/30.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• 1% rule +5.0/10.0
• DSCR +5.0/10.0
• Livability +3.2/5.0
• Schools +2.9/10.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

Investor special! Fixer Upper. 2 bedroom, 2 bath. Split bedroom plan. Open living area. Metal carport type awning runs for most of the length of the front of home. Patio with lattice in the back of home. Good sized chain link fenced yard. Storage shed in backyard. Home is on a perimeter lot with mountain views. Additional alley access. Home sold ''As Is'' with no personal property or debris to be removed.

Key facts

• Patio with lattice
• Perimeter lot
• Storage shed

Tags

• METAL CARPORT TYPE AWNING
• PATIO WITH LATTICE
• CHAIN LINK FENCED YARD
• STORAGE SHED
• PERIMETER LOT
• MOUNTAIN VIEWS

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 2-bed/2.0-bath manufactured listed at $35k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $934 ($11k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($2k rent vs $35k).
• Recommended offer: $31k (12.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Cap rate 38.4% vs local median 4.5% in Sierra Vista Southeast — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 63/100 on livability (#113 in AZ) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+, employment B+; Watch: crime C-, schools D, amenities F.
• Sierra Vista Unified District (4175) (urban): math 27% / reading 39% proficiency, ranked #93 of 249 in AZ (top 37%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Market conditions: 103 active listings in the ZIP; solid renter incomes; 437 units permitted in Cochise County in 2024 (6 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $241 of loan paydown is wiped out by about $1k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Cochise County population projected at -30% by 2050 — secular population decline; favor cash flow + early exit over multi-decade hold.
• At projected returns (-3.0% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $10k cash investment doubles in ~1 year — after that, you're playing with house money.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 153 days — a 12% lower offer ($31k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• Current owner paid $22k; list at $35k implies a 59% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: major flood risk; major wildfire risk; extreme-heat days projected 7→19/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $30,712 (12.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 153 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 12% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Built in 1974 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
3. What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
4. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
5. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
6. Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
7. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
8. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
9. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
10. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 4.39% ✓
• Cap rate: 38.41%
• Cash-on-cash: 114.71%
• DSCR: 6.10
• GRM: 1.9

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $149,000
• List price: $34,900
• Delta: -76.58%
• Verdict: UNDERPRICED
• Comps: 7 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 6 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
5222 E Finch Cir	0.10mi	2/2.0	1,100 (+12%)	17mo	$125,000	$114	60
3652 S Finch Cir	0.19mi	2/2.0	1,057 (+8%)	22mo	$96,000	$91	60
4965 E Ironwood Cir	0.29mi	3/2.0 (+1)	1,121 (+14%)	0mo	$149,000	$133	57
5102 E Finch Cir	0.12mi	3/2.0 (+1)	1,092 (+11%)	24mo	$130,000	$119	50
5025 E Ironwood Cir	0.28mi	2/1.0	897 (-8%)	24mo	$110,000	$123	49
5015 E Ironwood Cir	0.28mi	3/2.0 (+1)	1,121 (+14%)	19mo	$89,000	$79	42

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: —
• Equity multiple: 6.51×
• Total profit: $53,884
• Equity at exit: $5,204

10-year hold

• IRR: —
• Equity multiple: 13.66×
• Total profit: $123,710
• Equity at exit: $3,018

Cash invested: $9,772 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Arizona: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+3
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

5-day pay-or-quit; AZ courts known for speed; no state rent control; cities preempted by state law.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 85650

• Active inventory: 103
• Price-to-rent: 1.9×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,531 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$183
• Tax from tax record: −$33 /mo · $394/yr
• Insurance: −$15
• HOA: −$45
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$322
• Net cashflow: $934

Break-even live

Break-even rent $349

Max offer price $34,900

Occupancy floor 34%

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $8,725
• Closing costs: $1,047
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

HOA detail

• Monthly dues: $45 · $540/yr

Listing history 22 events

1. 2026-06-19
   days on market $34,900 Active 153 DOM
2. 2026-06-18
   days on market $34,900 Active 152 DOM
3. 2026-06-17
   days on market $34,900 Active 151 DOM
4. 2026-06-16
   days on market $34,900 Active 150 DOM
5. 2026-06-15
   days on market $34,900 Active 149 DOM
6. 2026-06-14
   statusdays on market $34,900 Active 147 DOM
7. 2026-06-12
   days on market $34,900 Under Contract Accepting Backups 146 DOM
8. 2026-06-09
   days on market $34,900 Under Contract Accepting Backups 143 DOM
9. 2026-06-08
   days on market $34,900 Under Contract Accepting Backups 142 DOM
10. 2026-06-07
    days on market $34,900 Under Contract Accepting Backups 141 DOM
11. 2026-06-05
    statusdays on market $34,900 Under Contract Accepting Backups 138 DOM
12. 2026-06-03
    days on market $34,900 Active 137 DOM
13. 2026-06-02
    days on market $34,900 Active 136 DOM
14. 2026-06-01
    days on market $34,900 Active 135 DOM
15. 2026-05-31
    days on market $34,900 Active 134 DOM
16. 2026-05-30
    days on market $34,900 Active 133 DOM
17. 2026-03-06
    price $49,900 408-char remark

    Show marketing remark (408 chars)

    Investor special! Fixer Upper. 2 bedroom, 2 bath. Split bedroom plan. Open living area. Metal carport type awning runs for most of the length of the front of home. Patio with lattice in the back of home. Good sized chain link fenced yard. Storage shed in backyard. Home is on a perimeter lot with mountain views. Additional alley access. Home sold ''As Is'' with no personal property or debris to be removed.

18. 2026-01-10
    listed $54,900 Active 408-char remark

    Show marketing remark (408 chars)

    Investor special! Fixer Upper. 2 bedroom, 2 bath. Split bedroom plan. Open living area. Metal carport type awning runs for most of the length of the front of home. Patio with lattice in the back of home. Good sized chain link fenced yard. Storage shed in backyard. Home is on a perimeter lot with mountain views. Additional alley access. Home sold ''As Is'' with no personal property or debris to be removed.

19. 2004-02-19
    soldstatus $22,000
20. 1995-02-27
    soldstatus $32,500
21. 1995-02-02
    soldstatus $31,081
22. 1994-01-10
    soldstatus $31,000

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast AZ · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $394 · $33/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $394 · $33/mo
• Expected delta: $0/yr ($0/mo · 0.0%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 6/10 Major FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 67% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 7/10 Severe
• 🌡 Heat 5/10 Major 7 d/yr ≥97°F today · 19 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 1/10 Low
• 🫁 Air quality 1/10 Low 0 unhealthy d/yr today · 0 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $18,372
• − Mortgage interest: −$1,955
• − Property taxes: −$394
• − Insurance: −$174
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,470
• − Management: −$1,470
• − HOA: −$540
• − Depreciation: −$1,015
• Taxable income: $11,354
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$2,725
• After-tax cash flow: $8,485/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Sierra Vista Unified District (4175)
• NCES district ID: 0401460
• Math proficiency: 27% ▼ -19.00%
• Reading proficiency: 39% ▼ -10.00%
• Median HH income: $55,463
• Composite: 29.17/100
• National rank: #6573
• State rank: #93 of 249 in AZ

Livability — Sierra Vista Southeast

• Score: 63/100
• State rank: #113
• US rank: #15230

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime C- Employment B+ Housing A+ Health & safety F User ratings B+

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Sierra Vista Southeast, AZ
• County: Cochise County · 49,069 people
• City population: 14,154
• Metro: Sierra Vista-Douglas, AZ
• Population (ZIP): 14,876
• Household income: $91,654
• Rent vs Own: 13.8% rent · 86.2% own
• Severe rent burden: 180.0

Population outlook (Cochise County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 113,402 people
• By 2030: 106,197 · -6.4%
• By 2040: 92,166 · -18.7%
• By 2050: 79,805 · -29.6%
• By 2075: 56,831 · -49.9%
• By 2100: 35,103 · -69.0%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Diverse neighborhood (Simpson 0.56)
• Race & ethnicity: White 62% Hispanic / Latino 22% Two or more races 19% Black 2% Asian 2% Pacific Islander 2% Native American 1%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 18% Puerto Rican 3%
• Common ancestry: Italian 3% Slovak 2% Iranian 2%
• Foreign-born: 6% · Canada, South Korea, China
• Languages at home: 85% English-only · Spanish 12% German/W. Germanic 1% Korean 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Cochise

• 2024 margin: Strong R (+23.1) · D 37.8% · R 61.0% · Other 1.2%
• 2008→2024 swing: -2.5pp toward R · 2008: -20.7pp · 2024: -23.1pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+23.1 2020: R+19.6 2016: R+22.6 2012: R+24.0 2008: R+20.7

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -101.13%
• Current HPI: 137.3428
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: Sierra Vista-Douglas, AZ
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 4.54%
• F500 in state: 20

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in AZ)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Technology	2	$13B
▸Mining / Metals	1	$23B
▸Environmental Services	1	$16B
▸Metals / Steel	1	$14B
▸Technology Distribution	1	$9B
▸Homebuilding	1	$8B

Price history

+61.0% since first listed

6 events — show timeline

• 2026-03-06 Price Changed $49,900 ARMLS
• 2026-01-10 Listed $54,900 ARMLS
• 2004-02-19 Sold (Public Records) $22,000 Public Records
• 1995-02-27 Sold (Public Records) $32,500 Public Records
• 1995-02-02 Sold (Public Records) $31,081 Public Records
• 1994-01-10 Sold (Public Records) $31,000 Public Records

Property tax history

+3.9%/yr

Latest (2023): $394 · +2.4% YoY. Source: county tax records.