15009 Bushwacker Way · Fort Worth, TX 76052

$295,999

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,337 sqft · SingleFamily · 19 Days on market

Built 2026 Good condition Est $266k · 11% over

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Why this score? — see what drove the D- grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +11.8/30.0
• Schools +4.6/10.0
• Livability +4.0/5.0
• Condition / age +4.0/5.0
• DSCR +3.5/10.0
• 1% rule +3.4/10.0
• Rent growth +2.8/5.0
• ARV discount +2.4/15.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks

This new single-story home offers a modern and low-maintenance layout. Two secondary bedrooms surround a full bathroom at the front of the home, leading to an open-concept layout shared between the kitchen, living and dining areas. A lavish owner's suite is nestled into a private rear corner and features an en-suite bathroom and walk-in closet.

Key facts

• Walk-in closet
• En-suite bathroom
• Single-story home

Tags

• SINGLE-STORY HOME
• OPEN-CONCEPT LAYOUT
• EN-SUITE BATHROOM
• WALK-IN CLOSET

Property features AI

Finance

• Financial info: List price: 301999

Exterior

• Parking: 2-car garage / 2 total parking spaces
• Home design: Spec new construction, Plan: Bonds; Single-family residence (exact stories/entry level not specified)
• Construction: New construction (listed 2026)
• Exterior features: Property contains living area of 1337 (measurement provided)

Interior

• Kitchen: Standard kitchen (appliances not specified)
• Bedrooms: 3 bedrooms
• Bathrooms: 2 full bathrooms
• Interior features: Open living area
• Laundry & utility: Laundry/utility area (details not specified)

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath single-family listed at $296k. Condition is rated good.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-83 ($-998/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $284k (4.1% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $248k (16.1% below list).
• Recommended offer: $248k (16.1% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Cap rate 6.0% vs local median 3.9% in Fort Worth — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 80/100 on livability (#49 in TX, #1,954 nationally) — a professional / high-income tenant draw. Strengths: amenities A+, cost of living A+, housing A+; Watch: crime F.
• Northwest ISD (rural): math 48% / reading 52% proficiency, ranked #120 of 826 in TX (top 14%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease.
• Zoned schools: Prairie View El (math 21% / reading 27%, grade F, #3,221 of 4,322 statewide, top 75%, 631 students, 54% FRL); Chisholm Trail Middle (math 39% / reading 35%, grade F, #756 of 1,662 statewide, top 47%, 684 students, 51% FRL); Northwest H S (math 55% / reading 64%, grade C+, #275 of 1,632 statewide, top 19%, 2,264 students, 0% FRL).
• Market conditions: Rents rising (+1.1%/yr); 1100 active listings in the ZIP; 2 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; high-income renter base; 460 units permitted in Wise County in 2024 (243 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $2k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $9k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Wise County population projected at +27% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 19 days — a 2% lower offer ($292k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: major wind risk, 27% chance of damaging wind over 30y; major wildfire risk; extreme-heat days projected 7→22/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $248,403 (16.1% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
3. Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
4. Crime grade is F in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
5. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
6. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
7. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
8. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.84% ✗
• Cap rate: 5.96%
• Cash-on-cash: -1.20%
• DSCR: 0.95
• GRM: 9.9

CMA / ARV

• ARV (on-the-fly): $266,063
• Comps found: 1

Show comp detail 1 sale within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
14932 Reyes Rd	0.00mi	3/2.0	1,461 (+9%)	1mo	$290,999	$199	84

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 1.08% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -20.4%
• Equity multiple: 0.30×
• Total profit: $-57,935
• Equity at exit: $44,134

10-year hold

• IRR: -18.5%
• Equity multiple: 0.09×
• Total profit: $-75,711
• Equity at exit: $25,593

Cash invested: $82,880 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Texas: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+5
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day notice; statewide preemption; one of the fastest eviction climates; Travis County (Austin) slightly slower.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 76052

• Home prices YoY: -25.0%
• Rents YoY: 1.1%
• Active inventory: 1100
• Price-to-rent: 9.9×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $2,484 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,552
• Tax est. 1.5%: −$370 /mo · $4,440/yr
• Insurance: −$123
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$522
• Net cashflow: $-83

Break-even live

Break-even rent $2,589

Max offer price $283,960

Occupancy floor 98%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $121	-5% $19	+0% $-83	+5% $-185	+10% $-288
Rent	-10% $-279	-5% $-181	+0% $-83	+5% $15	+10% $113
Rate	-1.0pp $66	-0.5pp $-8	base $-83	+0.5pp $-160	+1.0pp $-238

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $74,000
• Closing costs: $8,880
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 2 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
1413 Mustang Canyon Dr Haslet, TX	4.0	2.0	1738	$2,125	$1.22	5d	1	1.41mi
108 Telegraph Trl Newark, TX	3.0	2.0	1662	$1,995	$1.20	18d	1	1.43mi

Listing history 12 events

1. 2026-06-22
   days on market $295,999 Active 19 DOM
2. 2026-06-18
   days on market $295,999 Active 16 DOM
3. 2026-06-17
   days on market $295,999 Active 15 DOM
4. 2026-06-16
   days on market $295,999 Active 14 DOM
5. 2026-06-15
   days on market $295,999 Active 13 DOM
6. 2026-06-13
   pricedays on market $295,999 Active 11 DOM
7. 2026-06-09
   days on market $301,999 Active 7 DOM
8. 2026-06-08
   days on market $301,999 Active 6 DOM
9. 2026-06-07
   days on market $301,999 Active 5 DOM
10. 2026-06-04
    days on market $301,999 Active 2 DOM
11. 2026-06-02
    remarks 346-char remark
12. 2026-06-02
    listed $301,999 Active 1 DOM

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 6/10 Major
• 🌡 Heat 7/10 Severe 7 d/yr ≥109°F today · 22 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 6/10 Major 27% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 3/10 Moderate 3 unhealthy d/yr today · 4 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $29,808
• − Mortgage interest: −$16,581
• − Property taxes: −$4,440
• − Insurance: −$1,480
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$2,385
• − Management: −$2,385
• − Depreciation: −$8,611
• Taxable loss: −$6,072
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$1,457
• After-tax cash flow: $459/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Condition & rehab AI · 12 photos

Good 80/100 Cosmetic rehab

This modern single-story home offers a low-maintenance layout with a good condition score. It has a good foundation and structure, and the exterior and interior walls are in good condition. The kitchen and bathrooms are modern and well-maintained. The home is ready for a fresh paint job and some minor updates to the flooring and appliances to further increase its value.

Value-add opportunities

• Both Painting the exterior and interior walls — Fresh paint can enhance curb appeal and interior aesthetics.
• Both Updating the flooring in the kitchen and living areas — New flooring can improve the overall look and feel of the home.
• Both Upgrading the kitchen appliances — Modern appliances can increase the home's appeal and functionality.
• Both Adding smart home features — Smart home features can enhance convenience and add value to the home.
• Both Landscaping improvements — Enhanced landscaping can improve curb appeal and add value to the home.

Renovation cost estimate screening

Value-add ROI direction

• Both Painting the exterior and interior walls — Fresh paint can enhance curb appeal and interior aesthetics. ↑
• Both Updating the flooring in the kitchen and living areas — New flooring can improve the overall look and feel of the home. ↑
• Both Upgrading the kitchen appliances — Modern appliances can increase the home's appeal and functionality. ↑
• Both Adding smart home features — Smart home features can enhance convenience and add value to the home. ↑
• Both Landscaping improvements — Enhanced landscaping can improve curb appeal and add value to the home. ↑

ⓘ Cost ranges are severity-bucket heuristics (US national rule-of-thumb). Get contractor quotes + a written scope before underwriting a rehab budget.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Northwest ISD
• NCES district ID: 4833180
• Math proficiency: 48% ▼ -15.00%
• Reading proficiency: 52% ▼ -8.00%
• Median HH income: $85,315
• Composite: 46.15/100
• National rank: #2504
• State rank: #120 of 826 in TX

Livability — Fort Worth

• Score: 80/100
• State rank: #49
• US rank: #1954

Category grades

Amenities A+ Commute A Cost of living A+ Crime F Employment B- Housing A+ Health & safety A User ratings F

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• County: Tarrant County · 2,033,669 people
• City population: 911,619
• Metro: Dallas-Fort Worth-Arlington, TX
• Population (ZIP): 34,249
• Household income: $143,555
• Rent vs Own: 15.6% rent · 84.4% own
• Severe rent burden: 358.0

Population outlook (Wise County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 71,620 people
• By 2030: 75,858 · +5.9%
• By 2040: 83,908 · +17.2%
• By 2050: 90,717 · +26.7%
• By 2075: 107,583 · +50.2%
• By 2100: 114,996 · +60.6%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (66%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 66% Hispanic / Latino 14% Two or more races 13% Black 11% Asian 4%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 7% Puerto Rican 2%
• Common ancestry: Lithuanian 7% Slovak 4% Romanian 1%
• Foreign-born: 7% · Canada, Vietnam
• Languages at home: 88% English-only · Spanish 6% Vietnamese 2% Other Indo-European 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Wise

• 2024 margin: Solid R (+70.0) · D 14.7% · R 84.7%
• 2008→2024 swing: -14.3pp toward R · 2008: -55.7pp · 2024: -70.0pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+70.0 2020: R+68.2 2016: R+69.9 2012: R+67.5 2008: R+55.7

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -78.77%
• Current HPI: 235.7417
• Rent YoY: ▲ 1.08%
• Metro: Dallas-Fort Worth-Arlington, TX
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.95%
• F500 in state: 110

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in TX)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Energy	16	$1,198B
▸Technology	5	$198B
▸Engineering / Construction	4	$72B
▸Energy Services	3	$60B
▸Utilities	3	$41B
▸Healthcare	2	$330B