2301 Border Dr · Erie, PA 16506

$94,900

4 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,440 sqft · Manufactured public records · 19 Days on market

Built 1993 Est $75k · 27% over $440/mo HOA · 20% of rent

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Why this score? — see what drove the C+ grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +30.0/30.0
• 1% rule +10.0/10.0
• DSCR +10.0/10.0
• Schools +4.8/10.0
• Livability +4.2/5.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• ARV discount +0.0/15.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks

Looking for an affordable home in a great central location in Millcreek school district with a large corner lot? This 4 bed 2 full bath home is located at the end of the park on a large corner lot with green space across the street. Tons of updates and tons of space inside, with a living room dining room 4 bedrooms a spare room for an office and a laundry room. The primary bedroom has a large ensuite and large closet, the backyard is waiting on your furbaby with a fenced in portion of the large yard and then a large driveway! Dont count this one out!

Key facts

• Built 1993
• Listed 19 days

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 4-bed/2.0-bath manufactured listed at $95k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $720 ($9k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($2k rent vs $95k).
• Recommended offer: $93k (1.5% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Cap rate 15.4% vs local median 5.3% in Erie — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 83/100 on livability (#109 in PA, #840 nationally) — a professional / high-income tenant draw. Strengths: amenities A+, commute A+, cost of living A+; Watch: crime D+, employment F.
• Millcreek Township SD (suburban): math 46% / reading 65% proficiency, ranked #105 of 539 in PA (top 20%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease.
• Zoned schools: Grandview El Sch (math 55% / reading 69%, grade B, #313 of 1,518 statewide, top 24%, 659 students, 46% FRL); Walnut Creek Ms (math 43% / reading 72%, grade B, #61 of 512 statewide, top 13%, 449 students, 31% FRL); Mcdowell Hs (math 76% / reading 50%, grade B-, #72 of 437 statewide, top 16%, 2,205 students, 40% FRL).
• Market conditions: 99 active listings in the ZIP; 2 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; solid renter incomes; 364 units permitted in Erie County in 2024 (188 in 5+ unit buildings).
• This rent runs 33% of the median local income ($81k/yr) — at the standard rent-burdened threshold; future hikes will face affordability resistance.

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $656 of loan paydown is wiped out by about $3k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Erie County population projected at -14% by 2050 — secular population decline; favor cash flow + early exit over multi-decade hold.
• At projected returns (-3.0% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $27k cash investment doubles in ~4 years — after that, you're playing with house money.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 19 days — a 2% lower offer ($93k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.

Recommended offer $93,476 (1.5% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
2. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
3. Crime grade is D in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
4. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
5. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
6. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 2.36% ✓
• Cap rate: 15.39%
• Cash-on-cash: 32.49%
• DSCR: 2.45
• GRM: 3.5

CMA / ARV

• ARV (on-the-fly): $74,880
• Comps found: 2

Show comp detail 2 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
2310 Rollahome Dr	0.05mi	3/2.0 (-1)	1,456 (+1%)	7mo	$75,000	$52	85
4065 W Ridge Rd Lot 11	0.69mi	3/2.0 (-1)	1,404 (-2%)	22mo	$37,000	$26	40

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 27.7%
• Equity multiple: 2.16×
• Total profit: $30,723
• Equity at exit: $14,150

10-year hold

• IRR: 35.3%
• Equity multiple: 4.27×
• Total profit: $86,878
• Equity at exit: $8,205

Cash invested: $26,572 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 62 Landlord-Friendly
• State Pennsylvania: 62 Landlord-Friendly · EVEN
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

10-day notice; Philadelphia has eviction-court diversion + some protections; otherwise moderate.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 16506

• Active inventory: 99
• Price-to-rent: 3.5×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $2,238 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$498
• Tax from tax record: −$71 /mo · $852/yr
• Insurance: −$40
• HOA: −$440
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$470
• Net cashflow: $720

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,327

Max offer price $94,900

Occupancy floor 63%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $773	-5% $746	+0% $720	+5% $693	+10% $666
Rent	-10% $543	-5% $631	+0% $720	+5% $808	+10% $896
Rate	-1.0pp $767	-0.5pp $744	base $720	+0.5pp $695	+1.0pp $670

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $23,725
• Closing costs: $2,847
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 2 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
2412 Powell Ave Erie, PA	3.0	2.0	1500	$1,550	$1.03	45d	1	0.37mi
3630 W 10th St Erie, PA	3.0	2.0	1400	$2,000	$1.43	45d	1	0.94mi

HOA detail

• Monthly dues: $440 · $5,280/yr

Listing history 16 events

1. 2026-06-17
   status $94,900 Pending 19 DOM
2. 2026-06-16
   days on market $94,900 Active 19 DOM
3. 2026-06-15
   days on market $94,900 Active 18 DOM
4. 2026-06-14
   days on market $94,900 Active 16 DOM
5. 2026-06-13
   days on market $94,900 Active 15 DOM
6. 2026-06-10
   days on market $94,900 Active 13 DOM
7. 2026-06-09
   days on market $94,900 Active 12 DOM
8. 2026-06-08
   days on market $94,900 Active 11 DOM
9. 2026-06-07
   days on market $94,900 Active 10 DOM
10. 2026-06-03
    days on market $94,900 Active 6 DOM
11. 2026-06-02
    days on market $94,900 Active 5 DOM
12. 2026-06-01
    days on market $94,900 Active 4 DOM
13. 2026-05-31
    days on market $94,900 Active 3 DOM
14. 2026-05-30
    remarks 556-char remark
15. 2026-05-30
    days on market $94,900 Active 2 DOM
16. 2026-05-24
    listed $92,000 Active

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast PA · Partial reset (capped growth)

• Current annual tax: $852 · $71/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $1,176 · $98/mo
• Expected delta: +$324/yr (+$27/mo · 38.0%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 4/10 Moderate FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 22% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 1/10 Low
• 🌡 Heat 2/10 Low 7 d/yr ≥90°F today · 17 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 1/10 Low
• 🫁 Air quality 3/10 Moderate 3 unhealthy d/yr today · 3 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $26,851
• − Mortgage interest: −$5,316
• − Property taxes: −$852
• − Insurance: −$474
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$2,148
• − Management: −$2,148
• − HOA: −$5,280
• − Depreciation: −$2,761
• Taxable income: $7,872
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$1,889
• After-tax cash flow: $6,745/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Millcreek Township SD
• NCES district ID: 4215330
• Math proficiency: 46% ▼ -13.00%
• Reading proficiency: 65% ▼ -9.00%
• Median HH income: $55,734
• Composite: 47.82/100
• National rank: #2224
• State rank: #105 of 539 in PA

Livability — Erie

• Score: 83/100
• State rank: #109
• US rank: #840

Category grades

Amenities A+ Commute A+ Cost of living A+ Crime D+ Employment F Housing A+ Health & safety A+ User ratings F

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• County: Erie County · 92,215 people
• City population: 92,215
• Metro: Erie, PA
• Population (ZIP): 24,070
• Household income: $81,060
• Rent vs Own: 31.5% rent · 68.5% own
• Severe rent burden: 894.0

Population outlook (Erie County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 272,159 people
• By 2030: 266,299 · -2.2%
• By 2040: 250,987 · -7.8%
• By 2050: 234,925 · -13.7%
• By 2075: 199,164 · -26.8%
• By 2100: 162,985 · -40.1%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (88%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 88% Two or more races 5% Asian 4% Black 2% Hispanic / Latino 2%
• Common ancestry: Romanian 11% Italian 2% Lithuanian 1%
• Foreign-born: 5% · Canada, China
• Languages at home: 93% English-only · Other Indo-European 2% Spanish 1% Russian/Polish/Slavic 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Erie

• 2024 margin: Toss-up / Even · D 49.0% · R 50.0%
• 2008→2024 swing: -20.9pp toward R · 2008: 19.9pp · 2024: -1.0pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+1.0 2020: D+1.0 2016: R+2.0 2012: D+16.9 2008: D+19.9

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -152.21%
• Current HPI: 228.7506
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: Erie, PA
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 1.68%
• F500 in state: 34

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in PA)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Healthcare	2	$309B
▸Insurance	2	$27B
▸Telecommunications / Media	1	$124B
▸Industrial Distribution	1	$22B
▸Financial Services	1	$20B
▸Chemicals / Materials	1	$18B

Price history

1 event — show timeline

• 2026-05-24 Listed $92,000 FSBO.com

Property tax history

+2.5%/yr

Latest (2026): $852 · +3.6% YoY. Source: county tax records.