Residence 1412 Plan · Fresno, CA 93727

$394,990

3 bd · 2.5 ba · 1,412 sqft · SingleFamily · 994 Days on market

Excellent condition $161/mo HOA · 5% of rent

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Why this score? — see what drove the F grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• Schools +5.9/10.0
• Cash flow +5.4/30.0
• Condition / age +4.8/5.0
• Rent growth +3.2/5.0
• Livability +3.1/5.0
• 1% rule +1.4/10.0
• DSCR +0.0/10.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

3 Bedrooms 2.

Key facts

• 2 parking spots
• Listed 993 days

🏗️ New construction. The $394,990 list price is a builder figure, so every metric below is computed on the value from comparable previous sales — $462,962.

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/2.5-bath single-family listed at $395k. Condition is rated excellent.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-1k ($-12k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $317k (19.7% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $298k (24.6% below list).
• Recommended offer: $298k (24.6% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 62/100 on livability (#469 in CA) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: commute A+, housing A+; Watch: amenities D+, employment D+, crime F.
• Clovis Unified (suburban): math 58% / reading 72% proficiency, ranked #152 of 1,400 in CA (top 11%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease.
• Zoned schools: Temperance-Kutner Elementary (634 students, 79% FRL); Reyburn Intermediate (1,643 students, 58% FRL); Clovis East High (2,768 students, 56% FRL) — zoned schools average 64% FRL vs 32% district-wide (32 pts higher); higher-poverty schools than district average — tighter screening recommended.
• Market conditions: Rents rising (+3.0%/yr); 531 active listings in the ZIP; 26 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals lingering (median 82d on market — plan ~5-8 weeks vacancy on turnover, expect pricing pressure); 65% of comp listings sitting > 30 days — soft ceiling on asking rent; solid renter incomes; 2,426 units permitted in Fresno County in 2024 (296 in 5+ unit buildings).
• This rent runs 41% of the median local income ($87k/yr) — at the standard rent-burdened threshold; future hikes will face affordability resistance.

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $3k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $14k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Fresno County population projected at +11% by 2050 — modest demand growth; plan on rents tracking national, not racing it.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 994 days — a 12% lower offer ($348k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 2 sale attempts since 3y ago; this cycle's ask is 5% above the opening price — seller raised mid-cycle; expect resistance to lowballs.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: severe wildfire risk; extreme-heat days projected 7→18/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $297,892 (24.6% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. It's been on market 994 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 25% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
3. What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
4. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
5. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
6. Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
7. Crime grade is F in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
8. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
9. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
10. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
11. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.64% ✗
• Cap rate: 3.68%
• Cash-on-cash: -9.32%
• DSCR: 0.59
• GRM: 13.0

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $462,962
• List price: $394,990
• Delta: -14.68%
• Verdict: UNDERPRICED
• Comps: 20 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 12 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
6538 E Lamona	0.19mi	3/2.0	1,491 (+6%)	3mo	$440,000	$295	77
6564 E Cresthaven Dr	0.53mi	3/2.5	1,402 (-1%)	3mo	$403,739	$288	72
6657 E Home Ave	0.32mi	3/1.8	1,491 (+6%)	1mo	$430,000	$288	72
6546 E Crimson Dr	0.54mi	3/2.5	1,402 (-1%)	3mo	$407,820	$291	71
6580 E Cresthaven Dr	0.55mi	3/2.5	1,402 (-1%)	3mo	$387,820	$277	71
6548 E Cresthaven Dr	0.58mi	3/2.5	1,402 (-1%)	3mo	$410,820	$293	69
6556 E Cresthaven Dr	0.56mi	3/2.5	1,227 (-13%)	3mo	$385,300	$314	50
6524 E Cresthaven Dr	0.58mi	3/2.5	1,227 (-13%)	3mo	$390,300	$318	49
6540 E Cresthaven Dr	0.58mi	3/2.5	1,227 (-13%)	3mo	$385,300	$314	49
6588 E Cresthaven Dr	0.59mi	3/2.5	1,227 (-13%)	3mo	$385,300	$314	48
6572 E Cresthaven Dr	0.60mi	3/2.5	1,227 (-13%)	3mo	$370,300	$302	48
6527 E Cresthaven Dr	0.60mi	3/2.5	1,227 (-13%)	3mo	$394,300	$321	47

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 2.95% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -32.9%
• Equity multiple: -0.07×
• Total profit: $-139,167
• Equity at exit: $69,029

10-year hold

• IRR: -39.5%
• Equity multiple: -0.57×
• Total profit: $-203,806
• Equity at exit: $40,028

Cash invested: $129,629 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 18 Strongly Tenant-Friendly
• State California: 18 Strongly Tenant-Friendly · D+13
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

AB1482 statewide rent cap (10% + CPI). Cities (SF/LA/Berkeley) layer stricter rules. Just-cause statewide.

Methodology + full state rankings →

Balanced market Market conditions within 1.0 mi — comparable homes for sale

Active competition Active MLS

• For sale now: 42 active · 102 under contract
• Months of supply: 3.3 mo (31%/mo absorbed)
• Median asking: $381,790 ($275/sqft)
• Median days on market: 52 d
• This list price: 67% of active listings are priced below it
• ARV vs active asking: +19.3% above current asking $/sqft

Closed sales set the value; these active listings set current market conditions and a practical price ceiling.

ZIP-level market 93727

• Rents YoY: 3.0%
• Active inventory: 531
• Price-to-rent: 11.0×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $2,979 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$2,428
• Tax est. 1.5%: −$579 /mo · $6,944/yr
• Insurance: −$193
• HOA: −$161
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$626
• Net cashflow: $-1,007

Break-even live

Break-even rent $4,254

Max offer price $317,236

Occupancy floor —

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $-687	-5% $-847	+0% $-1,007	+5% $-1,167	+10% $-1,327
Rent	-10% $-1,242	-5% $-1,125	+0% $-1,007	+5% $-889	+10% $-772
Rate	-1.0pp $-774	-0.5pp $-889	base $-1,007	+0.5pp $-1,127	+1.0pp $-1,249

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $115,740
• Closing costs: $13,889
• Club membership (one-time): —
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 26 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
6563 E Tobey Ave Fresno, CA	4.0	2.0	1794	$4,695	$2.62	139d	1	0.14mi
6609 E Carmen Ave Fresno, CA	3.0	2.0	1782	$2,650	$1.49	99d	1	0.44mi
6596 E Cresthaven DR Fresno, CA	3.0	2.5	1651	$2,595	$1.57	78d	1	0.54mi
6579 E Madison Ave Fresno, CA	3.0	2.5	1704	$2,700	$1.58	82d	1	0.57mi
6446 E Meritage Dr Fresno, CA	3.0	2.5	1652	$4,195	$2.54	139d	1	0.76mi
6345 E Meritage Dr Fresno, CA	3.0	3.0	1227	$2,500	$2.04	10d	1	0.76mi
6193 E Brick Dr Fresno, CA	3.0	2.5	1512	$2,395	$1.58	116d	1	0.81mi
6433 E Malbec Dr Fresno, CA	3.0	2.0	1412	$2,395	$1.70	10d	1	0.83mi
6052 E Bishop Ln Fresno, CA	3.0	2.5	1579	$2,250	$1.42	117d	1	0.84mi
7216 E University Ave Fresno, CA	3.0	2.0	1600	$2,495	$1.56	10d	1	0.87mi
2400 N Armstrong Ave Fresno, CA	3.0	3.0	1400	$900	$0.64	139d	1	0.88mi
6286 E Overlook Way Fresno, CA	3.0	2.5	1512	$2,395	$1.58	2d	1	0.89mi
6262 E Overlook Way Fresno, CA	3.0	2.5	1398	$2,425	$1.73	2d	1	0.90mi
6262 E Overlook Way Fresno, CA	3.0	3.0	1398	$2,450	$1.75	4d	1	0.90mi
538 N Burgan Ave Fresno, CA	4.0	2.0	1548	$2,300	$1.49	5d	1	0.97mi
352 N Millard Ave Fresno, CA	4.0	2.0	1838	$2,595	$1.41	62d	1	1.12mi
5925 E Tulare Ave Fresno, CA	3.0	2.0	1026	$2,115	$2.06	0d	2	1.25mi
134 N Purdue Ave Fresno, CA	3.0	3.0	1534	$2,400	$1.56	97d	1	1.29mi
139 N Miami Ave Fresno, CA	3.0	3.0	1534	$2,400	$1.56	88d	1	1.33mi
6226 E Nala Dr Fresno, CA	3.0	2.5	1627	$2,350	$1.44	93d	1	1.35mi
5886 E Fillmore Ave Fresno, CA	3.0	2.0	1445	$2,295	$1.59	62d	1	1.39mi
5853 E Voorman Ave Fresno, CA	4.0	3.0	1792	$2,475	$1.38	106d	1	1.39mi
5949 E Laurel Ave Fresno, CA	3.0	2.0	1691	$2,400	$1.42	10d	1	1.40mi
6357 E Mono St Fresno, CA	4.0	2.0	1581	$2,650	$1.68	62d	1	1.45mi
2851 N Janice Ave Fresno, CA	3.0	2.0	1341	$2,395	$1.79	119d	1	1.46mi
7170 E Amherst Ave Fresno, CA	3.0	2.0	1635	$2,595	$1.59	110d	1	1.50mi

Listing history 50 events

1. 2026-09-24
   days on market $394,990 Active 994 DOM
2. 2026-09-23
   days on market $394,990 Active 993 DOM
3. 2026-09-22
   days on market $394,990 Active 992 DOM
4. 2026-09-21
   days on market $394,990 Active 991 DOM
5. 2026-09-20
   days on market $394,990 Active 990 DOM
6. 2026-09-19
   days on market $394,990 Active 989 DOM
7. 2026-09-18
   days on market $394,990 Active 988 DOM
8. 2026-09-17
   days on market $394,990 Active 987 DOM
9. 2026-09-16
   days on market $394,990 Active 986 DOM
10. 2026-09-15
    days on market $394,990 Active 985 DOM
11. 2026-09-14
    days on market $394,990 Active 984 DOM
12. 2026-09-13
    days on market $394,990 Active 983 DOM
13. 2026-09-12
    days on market $394,990 Active 982 DOM
14. 2026-09-11
    days on market $394,990 Active 981 DOM
15. 2026-09-05
    days on market $394,990 Active 975 DOM
16. 2026-09-04
    days on market $394,990 Active 974 DOM
17. 2026-09-03
    days on market $394,990 Active 973 DOM
18. 2026-08-31
    days on market $394,990 Active 970 DOM
19. 2026-08-29
    days on market $394,990 Active 968 DOM
20. 2026-08-28
    days on market $394,990 Active 967 DOM
21. 2026-08-27
    days on market $394,990 Active 966 DOM
22. 2026-08-26
    days on market $394,990 Active 965 DOM
23. 2026-08-25
    days on market $394,990 Active 964 DOM
24. 2026-08-24
    days on market $394,990 Active 963 DOM
25. 2026-08-23
    days on market $394,990 Active 962 DOM
26. 2026-08-22
    days on market $394,990 Active 961 DOM
27. 2026-08-21
    days on market $394,990 Active 960 DOM
28. 2026-08-20
    days on market $394,990 Active 959 DOM
29. 2026-08-19
    days on market $394,990 Active 958 DOM
30. 2026-08-18
    days on market $394,990 Active 957 DOM
31. 2026-08-17
    days on market $394,990 Active 956 DOM
32. 2026-08-16
    days on market $394,990 Active 955 DOM
33. 2026-08-15
    days on market $394,990 Active 954 DOM
34. 2026-08-14
    days on market $394,990 Active 953 DOM
35. 2026-08-13
    days on market $394,990 Active 952 DOM
36. 2026-08-12
    days on market $394,990 Active 951 DOM
37. 2026-08-11
    days on market $394,990 Active 950 DOM
38. 2026-08-10
    days on market $394,990 Active 949 DOM
39. 2026-08-09
    days on market $394,990 Active 948 DOM
40. 2026-08-08
    days on market $394,990 Active 947 DOM
41. 2026-08-07
    days on market $394,990 Active 946 DOM
42. 2026-08-06
    days on market $394,990 Active 945 DOM
43. 2026-08-05
    days on market $394,990 Active 944 DOM
44. 2026-08-04
    days on market $394,990 Active 943 DOM
45. 2026-08-03
    days on market $394,990 Active 942 DOM
46. 2026-07-31
    days on market $394,990 Active 939 DOM
47. 2026-07-30
    days on market $394,990 Active 938 DOM
48. 2026-07-30
    days on market $394,990 Active 937 DOM
49. 2026-07-28
    days on market $394,990 Active 936 DOM
50. 2026-07-26
    days on market $394,990 Active 934 DOM

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (shaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 9/10 Extreme
• 🌡 Heat 8/10 Severe 7 d/yr ≥105°F today · 18 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 1/10 Low
• 🫁 Air quality 10/10 Extreme 57 unhealthy d/yr today · 60 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $35,747
• − Mortgage interest: −$25,933
• − Property taxes: −$6,944
• − Insurance: −$2,315
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$2,860
• − Management: −$2,860
• − HOA: −$1,932
• − Depreciation: −$13,468
• Taxable loss: −$20,565
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$4,936
• After-tax cash flow: $-7,149/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Condition & rehab AI · 13 photos

Excellent 95/100 None rehab

This two-story home is in excellent condition with modern finishes and a well-maintained exterior. It is move-in ready and would benefit from some landscaping and curb appeal improvements to maximize its value.

Value-add opportunities

• Both Landscaping and curb appeal — Enhances the home's curb appeal and can attract more buyers. ↑
• Both Add a smart home system — Improves convenience and can be a selling point for potential buyers. ↑
• Both Paint the exterior — Fresh paint can make the home look more inviting and maintain its value. ↑
• Both Install smart locks — Enhances security and can be a selling point for potential buyers. ↑

Zoned Schools

Elementary Temperance-Kutner Elementary Middle Reyburn Intermediate High Clovis East High

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Clovis Unified
• NCES district ID: 0609030
• Math proficiency: 58% ▲ 1.00%
• Reading proficiency: 72% ▲ 2.00%
• Median HH income: $71,950
• Composite: 58.7/100
• National rank: #2003
• State rank: #152 of 1400 in CA

C Composite livability gradescore 62/100

Livability — Fresno

• Score: 62/100
• State rank: #469
• US rank: #15907

Category grades

Amenities D+ Commute A+ Cost of living F Crime F Employment D+ Housing A+ Health & safety F User ratings F

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Fresno, CA
• County: Fresno County · 1,042,971 people
• City population: 593,114
• Metro: Fresno, CA
• Population (ZIP): 84,107
• Household income: $87,466
• Rent vs Own: 36.2% rent · 63.8% own
• Severe rent burden: 11% of renters

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Population outlook (Fresno County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 1,042,971 people
• By 2030: 1,072,198 · +2.8%
• By 2040: 1,122,408 · +7.6%
• By 2050: 1,157,251 · +11.0%
• By 2075: 1,182,575 · +13.4%
• By 2100: 1,105,899 · +6.0%

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Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Diverse neighborhood (Simpson 0.68)
• Race & ethnicity: Hispanic / Latino 46% Asian 27% Two or more races 22% White 18% Black 5% Native American 2%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 42%
• Common ancestry: Russian 1% Slovak 1% Portuguese 1%
• Foreign-born: 22% · Canada, China, Vietnam
• Languages at home: 54% English-only · Spanish 25% Other Asian/Pacific 13% Other Indo-European 6%

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Political lean MEDSL · Fresno

• 2024 margin: Toss-up / Even · D 46.5% · R 50.9% · Other 2.6%
• 2008→2024 swing: -6.5pp toward R · 2008: 2.1pp · 2024: -4.4pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+4.4 2020: D+7.8 2016: D+3.9 2012: R+2.9 2008: D+2.1

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -317.54%
• Current HPI: 379.1959
• Rent YoY: ▲ 2.95%
• Metro: Fresno, CA
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.21%
• F500 in state: 116

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Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in CA)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Technology	27	$1,492B
▸Financial Services	3	$174B
▸Retail	3	$44B
▸Insurance	3	$26B
▸Media / Entertainment	2	$115B
▸Pharmaceuticals / Biotech	2	$62B

Price history

+4.8% since first listed

6 events — show timeline

• 2024-03-30 Price Changed $394,990 Zillow
• 2024-03-14 Relisted — Zillow
• 2024-01-18 Delisted — Zillow
• 2024-01-14 Price Changed $388,990 Zillow
• 2024-01-13 Price Changed $383,990 Zillow
• 2023-11-08 Listed $376,990 Zillow