2564 S Nancelon Cir S · Macon-Bibb County, GA 31204

$109,000

2 bd · 1.0 ba · 864 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 4 Days on market

Built 1950 0.34 ac lot

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Why this score? — see what drove the C- grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +22.3/30.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• DSCR +7.1/10.0
• 1% rule +5.0/10.0
• Rent growth +3.7/5.0
• Livability +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Schools +1.2/10.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks

What a phenomenal deal in a great location! This home has been completely renovated with beautiful hardwood floors and great layout! This is one you will not want to miss!!

Key facts

• 0.34 acre lot
• Garage
• Built 1950

Property features AI

Finance

• Other: Lot approximately 0.34 acres (100 x 150); Subdivision: Jackson Heights
• HOA & community: Homeowners association present

Exterior

• Parking: Carport (2 spaces); Detached covered parking; Driveway access; Kitchen-level entry
• Utilities: Public water; Public sewer; Electricity available; Natural gas available; Cable available; Phone available
• Home design: Single-family residence; One story; Updated/remodeled condition
• Construction: Block foundation; Built with traditional construction materials
• Exterior features: Front porch (covered); Rear covered porch; Shingle roof

Interior

• Kitchen: Dishwasher; Disposal; Electric oven; Electric range; Refrigerator
• Bedrooms: 2 total rooms
• Flooring: Hardwood floors
• Bathrooms: 1 full bathroom
• Heating & cooling: Natural gas heating; Central air conditioning
• Interior features: Updated/remodeled throughout; Private yard; Storage
• Laundry & utility: Main-level laundry room; Washer and dryer included; Gas water heater

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 2-bed/1.0-bath single-family listed at $109k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $179 ($2k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $109k (0.0% below list).
• Recommended offer: $109k (0.0% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Cap rate 8.3% vs local median 5.4% in Macon-Bibb County — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads: area grade C — affects rentability + tenant quality, not the cash-flow math above.
• Bibb County (urban): math 11% / reading 18% proficiency, ranked #161 of 174 in GA (top 92%) — low school quality limits family demand, transient renter base, plan for 1-2y turnover; 75% free/reduced lunch — lower-income household profile, screen leases tightly.
• Market conditions: Rents rising fast (+4.6%/yr); 255 active listings in the ZIP; 24 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals lingering (median 44d on market — plan ~5-8 weeks vacancy on turnover, expect pricing pressure); 58% of comp listings sitting > 30 days — soft ceiling on asking rent; lower-income renter base — watch delinquency; 154 units permitted in Bibb County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).
• This rent runs 34% of the median local income ($39k/yr) — at the standard rent-burdened threshold; future hikes will face affordability resistance.

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $754 of loan paydown is wiped out by about $3k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Bibb County population projected at -12% by 2050 — secular population decline; favor cash flow + early exit over multi-decade hold.

Negotiation context

• Only 4 days on market — expect competitive offers; lowballing is unlikely to land.
• Current owner paid $85k; 28% above their basis — modest negotiation headroom, anchor on the comps not their cost.

Risks & watch-outs

• Watch-outs: built in 1950 — expect roof / HVAC / electrical / plumbing capex.
• Climate carrying-cost: major wind risk, 75% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→17/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $108,984

Questions for the listing agent

1. Built in 1950 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
2. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
3. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
4. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
5. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.00% ✗
• Cap rate: 8.27%
• Cash-on-cash: 7.05%
• DSCR: 1.31
• GRM: 8.3

CMA / ARV

No comps found within radius.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 4.61% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -3.9%
• Equity multiple: 0.85×
• Total profit: $-4,477
• Equity at exit: $16,252

10-year hold

• IRR: 7.4%
• Equity multiple: 1.60×
• Total profit: $18,300
• Equity at exit: $9,424

Cash invested: $30,520 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 90 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Georgia: 90 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+3
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

Magistrate court evictions in 10-30 days; no rent control; preempted; few tenant protections.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 31204

• Rents YoY: 4.6%
• Active inventory: 255
• Price-to-rent: 8.3×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,090 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$572
• Tax from tax record: −$65 /mo · $776/yr
• Insurance: −$45
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$229
• Net cashflow: $179

Break-even live

Break-even rent $863

Max offer price $109,000

Occupancy floor 79%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $241	-5% $210	+0% $179	+5% $148	+10% $118
Rent	-10% $93	-5% $136	+0% $179	+5% $222	+10% $265
Rate	-1.0pp $234	-0.5pp $207	base $179	+0.5pp $151	+1.0pp $122

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $27,250
• Closing costs: $3,270
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 24 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
2591 N Pierce Cir Unit 2589 Macon, GA	2.0	1.0	800	$995	$1.24	44d	1	0.14mi
2534 Huntington Dr Macon, GA	3.0	1.5	1050	$1,525	$1.45	21d	1	0.44mi
965 N Pierce Ave Unit A Macon, GA	2.0	1.0	1032	$985	$0.95	44d	1	0.60mi
2375 Parker Ave Unit 3 Macon, GA	2.0	1.0	850	$1,200	$1.41	44d	1	0.73mi
3163 High Point Dr Macon, GA	3.0	1.0	1100	$1,125	$1.02	21d	1	0.77mi
2370 Rogers Pl Macon, GA	2.0	1.0	832	$925	$1.11	44d	1	0.85mi
3266 Highpoint Dr Unit 593-B Macon, GA	2.0	1.5	1120	$1,100	$0.98	44d	1	0.88mi
130 Calloway Dr Macon, GA	2.0	2.0	950	$950	$1.00	44d	1	1.23mi
1930 Northbrook Ave Macon, GA	3.0	1.0	1071	$1,400	$1.31	14d	1	1.24mi
1930 Northbrook Ave Macon, GA	3.0	1.0	1071	$1,400	$1.31	44d	1	1.24mi
3016 Ridge Ave Unit A Macon, GA	1.0	1.0	750	$775	$1.03	44d	1	1.26mi
3330 Ridge Ave Unit D4 Macon, GA	2.0	1.5	1056	$1,050	$0.99	14d	1	1.27mi
132 Oak Haven Ave Macon, GA	2.0	1.0	720	$975	$1.35	44d	1	1.33mi
2755 Vineville Ave Unit B Macon, GA	3.0	2.0	900	$1,375	$1.53	44d	1	1.33mi
2763 Vineville Ave Macon, GA	1.0	1.0	900	$900	$1.00	44d	1	1.33mi
3324 Vineville Ave Unit 57C Macon, GA	2.0	1.0	914	$1,050	$1.15	14d	1	1.35mi
3324 Vineville Ave Unit 63B Macon, GA	2.0	1.0	1125	$1,050	$0.93	21d	1	1.35mi
3324 Vineville Ave Unit 57A Macon, GA	1.0	1.0	680	$800	$1.18	21d	1	1.35mi
133 Auburn Ave Macon, GA	2.0	1.0	880	$895	$1.02	44d	1	1.37mi
185 Oak Haven Ave Apt A4 Macon, GA	3.0	2.0	1100	$1,200	$1.09	21d	1	1.41mi
140 Prentice Pl Apt F Macon, GA	1.0	1.0	600	$785	$1.31	44d	1	1.44mi
140 Prentice Pl Apt E Macon, GA	1.0	1.0	600	$1,400	$2.33	44d	1	1.44mi
285 Moughon St Macon, GA	3.0	1.0	1015	$900	$0.89	14d	1	1.47mi
3576 Vineville Ave Unit 3550-D-LT Macon, GA	2.0	2.0	863	$995	$1.15	14d	1	1.48mi

Listing history 5 events

1. 2026-06-19
   days on market $109,000 Active 4 DOM
2. 2026-06-18
   days on market $109,000 Active 3 DOM
3. 2026-06-17
   days on market $109,000 Active 2 DOM
4. 2026-06-15
   remarks 172-char remark
5. 2026-06-15
   listed $109,000 Active 1 DOM

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast GA · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $776 · $65/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $1,003 · $84/mo
• Expected delta: +$227/yr (+$19/mo · 29.2%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 1/10 Low
• 🌡 Heat 7/10 Severe 7 d/yr ≥108°F today · 17 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 6/10 Major 75% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 4/10 Moderate 3 unhealthy d/yr today · 5 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $13,078
• − Mortgage interest: −$6,106
• − Property taxes: −$776
• − Insurance: −$545
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,046
• − Management: −$1,046
• − Depreciation: −$3,171
• Taxable income: $388
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$93
• After-tax cash flow: $2,058/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Bibb County
• NCES district ID: 1300420
• Math proficiency: 11% ▼ -14.00%
• Reading proficiency: 18% ▼ -11.00%
• Median HH income: $37,426
• Composite: 12.13/100
• National rank: #9654
• State rank: #161 of 174 in GA

Livability — Macon-Bibb County

No livability data for this city. (Only ~50 U.S. cities are tracked.)

Census & demographics

• Census place: Macon-Bibb County, GA
• County: Bibb County · 164,332 people
• City population: 143,186
• Metro: Macon-Bibb County, GA
• Population (ZIP): 32,421
• Household income: $38,784
• Rent vs Own: 57.5% rent · 42.5% own
• Severe rent burden: 2674.0

Population outlook (Bibb County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 148,772 people
• By 2030: 145,904 · -1.9%
• By 2040: 139,404 · -6.3%
• By 2050: 131,603 · -11.5%
• By 2075: 111,050 · -25.4%
• By 2100: 83,346 · -44.0%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly Black (65%)
• Race & ethnicity: Black 65% White 28% Hispanic / Latino 3% Two or more races 2% Asian 1%
• Common ancestry: Serbian 2% Slovak 1% Lithuanian 1%
• Foreign-born: 2% · Canada
• Languages at home: 96% English-only · Spanish 2% French/Haitian/Cajun 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Bibb

• 2024 margin: Strong D (+22.4) · D 61.0% · R 38.5%
• 2008→2024 swing: +4.4pp toward D · 2008: 18.0pp · 2024: 22.4pp
• All cycles: 2024: D+22.4 2020: D+23.8 2016: D+20.2 2012: D+20.0 2008: D+18.0

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -135.44%
• Current HPI: 194.5459
• Rent YoY: ▲ 4.61%
• Metro: Macon-Bibb County, GA
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 2.66%
• F500 in state: 28

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in GA)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Paper / Packaging	2	$29B
▸Retail	1	$160B
▸Transportation / Logistics	1	$91B
▸Airlines	1	$62B
▸Consumer Goods	1	$47B
▸Utilities	1	$25B

Price history

+109.6% since first listed

3 events — show timeline

• 2026-06-15 Listed $109,000 MGMLS
• 2009-07-07 Sold (Public Records) $85,000 Public Records
• 2005-02-14 Sold (Public Records) $52,000 Public Records

Property tax history

+6.3%/yr

Latest (2025): $776 · +6.1% YoY. Source: county tax records.