11516 205th Ave E · Prairie Ridge, WA 98391

$140,000

2 bd · 1.0 ba · 918 sqft · Manufactured public records · 1 Days on market

Built 1996 8,625 sqft lot $17/mo HOA · 1% of rent ↓ 33% since listing

---

Why this score? — see what drove the B grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +30.0/30.0
• 1% rule +10.0/10.0
• DSCR +10.0/10.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• Schools +6.2/10.0
• Rent growth +3.4/5.0
• Livability +3.2/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks

Home sold as-is. 2 bed 1 bth. You cannot go inside due to needles and need of biohazrd work that needs to be done, septic testing for drugs and RSS AND O & M to be buyers responsibility. Seller will do no repairs to the property. Buyers to enter property at there own risk. Water meter has been pulled, there is a broken waterline near access well. Power meter has been pulled. Please note ( Seller may cancel this agreement prior to the ending date of the listing without advanced notice to the broker and without payments of commission or any other considerations if the property is converted to the mortgage insurer or mortgage holder. )

Key facts

• 8,625 sq ft lot
• Built 1996

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 2-bed/1.0-bath manufactured listed at $140k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $631 ($8k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($2k rent vs $140k).
• Cap rate 11.7% vs local median 3.3% in Prairie Ridge — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 63/100 on livability (#401 in WA) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: employment A+, housing A+; Watch: schools F, amenities F, commute F.
• Sumner School District (suburban): math 64% / reading 73% proficiency, ranked #18 of 291 in WA (top 6%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease.
• Market conditions: Rents rising (+3.5%/yr); 736 active listings in the ZIP; 3 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals leasing fast (median 6d on market — plan ~1-2 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); high-income renter base; 3,209 units permitted in Pierce County in 2024 (1,269 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $968 of loan paydown is wiped out by about $4k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Pierce County population projected at +26% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.
• At projected returns (-3.0% appreciation + 3.5% rent growth), your $39k cash investment doubles in ~7 years — after that, you're playing with house money.

Negotiation context

• Only 1 days on market — expect competitive offers; lowballing is unlikely to land.
• 2 sale attempts since 2y ago; this cycle's ask has dropped $70k (33%) from the opening price — seller is motivated, your offer sets the floor, not the list.

Risks & watch-outs

• Watch-outs: property tax is 2.8% of price.

Recommended offer $140,000

Questions for the listing agent

1. Property tax is high relative to price — has the assessment been appealed recently, and will the sale trigger a re-assessment?
2. What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
3. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
4. Schools are F-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
5. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
6. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
7. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.60% ✓
• Cap rate: 11.70%
• Cash-on-cash: 19.31%
• DSCR: 1.86
• GRM: 5.2

CMA / ARV

• ARV (on-the-fly): $322,218
• Comps found: 7

Show comp detail 7 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
20006 117TH St E	0.32mi	2/1.0	896 (-2%)	3mo	$174,000	$194	78
20414 Rhododendron Dr E	0.05mi	2/1.0	960 (+5%)	20mo	$349,950	$365	73
11401 202nd Ave E	0.21mi	3/2.0 (+1)	960 (+5%)	5mo	$372,000	$388	69
11310 202nd Ave E	0.25mi	2/1.0	784 (-15%)	11mo	$275,000	$351	55
19905 114th St E	0.43mi	2/1.0	1,000 (+9%)	15mo	$355,000	$355	52
20514 108th St E	0.55mi	3/1.0 (+1)	840 (-8%)	15mo	$131,000	$156	43
11311 201st Ave E	0.33mi	2/1.0	784 (-15%)	22mo	$220,000	$281	42

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 3.47% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 11.9%
• Equity multiple: 1.48×
• Total profit: $18,680
• Equity at exit: $20,874

10-year hold

• IRR: 21.3%
• Equity multiple: 2.86×
• Total profit: $72,950
• Equity at exit: $12,105

Cash invested: $39,200 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 28 Tenant-Leaning
• State Washington: 28 Tenant-Leaning · D+8
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

Just-cause statewide (2021); Seattle layers rent control restrictions + relocation assistance; very tenant-friendly.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 98391

• Rents YoY: 3.5%
• Active inventory: 736
• Price-to-rent: 5.2×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $2,238 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$734
• Tax from tax record: −$327 /mo · $3,930/yr
• Insurance: −$58
• HOA: −$17
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$470
• Net cashflow: $631

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,439

Max offer price $140,000

Occupancy floor 67%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $710	-5% $670	+0% $631	+5% $591	+10% $551
Rent	-10% $454	-5% $542	+0% $631	+5% $719	+10% $807
Rate	-1.0pp $701	-0.5pp $666	base $631	+0.5pp $594	+1.0pp $557

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $35,000
• Closing costs: $4,200
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 3 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
19016 106 Street Ct E Bonney Lake, WA	2.0	1.5	1028	$2,150	$2.09	2d	1	1.08mi
9800 219th Ave E Bonney Lake, WA	2.0	1.0	905	$1,609	$1.78	5d	1	1.45mi
9803 221st Ave E Bonney Lake, WA	2.0–3.0	2.0	1060	$2,135	$2.01	45d	2	1.48mi

HOA detail

• Monthly dues: $17 · $204/yr
• Likely covers: water

Listing history 5 events

1. 2024-07-24
   status Pending
2. 2024-07-24
   status Active
3. 2024-07-24
   price $140,000
4. 2024-04-03
   status Pending
5. 2024-03-10
   listed $209,950 Active

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast WA · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $3,930 · $327/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $3,930 · $327/mo
• Expected delta: $0/yr ($0/mo · 0.0%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 3/10 Moderate
• 🌡 Heat 2/10 Low 7 d/yr ≥87°F today · 15 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 1/10 Low
• 🫁 Air quality 7/10 Severe 9 unhealthy d/yr today · 11 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $26,850
• − Mortgage interest: −$7,842
• − Property taxes: −$3,930
• − Insurance: −$700
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$2,148
• − Management: −$2,148
• − HOA: −$204
• − Depreciation: −$4,073
• Taxable income: $5,805
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$1,393
• After-tax cash flow: $6,174/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Sumner School District
• NCES district ID: 5308610
• Math proficiency: 64% ▲ 1.00%
• Reading proficiency: 73% ▬ 0.00%
• Median HH income: $76,138
• Composite: 61.86/100
• National rank: #1497
• State rank: #18 of 291 in WA

Livability — Prairie Ridge

• Score: 63/100
• State rank: #401
• US rank: #16033

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living D- Crime C Employment A+ Housing A+ Health & safety F User ratings A

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Prairie Ridge, WA
• County: Pierce County · 788,257 people
• Metro: Seattle-Tacoma-Bellevue, WA
• Population (ZIP): 59,240
• Household income: $135,037
• Rent vs Own: 14.3% rent · 85.7% own
• Severe rent burden: 528.0

Population outlook (Pierce County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 956,648 people
• By 2030: 1,010,862 · +5.7%
• By 2040: 1,113,170 · +16.4%
• By 2050: 1,206,524 · +26.1%
• By 2075: 1,436,425 · +50.2%
• By 2100: 1,563,654 · +63.5%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (79%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 79% Two or more races 11% Hispanic / Latino 9% Asian 4%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 5% Puerto Rican 1%
• Common ancestry: Portuguese 6% Italian 4% Lithuanian 4%
• Foreign-born: 6% · Canada, China, South Korea
• Languages at home: 92% English-only · Spanish 3% Russian/Polish/Slavic 2% Other Asian/Pacific 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Pierce

• 2024 margin: D (+10.8) · D 53.9% · R 43.1% · Other 3.0%
• 2008→2024 swing: -1.4pp toward R · 2008: 12.2pp · 2024: 10.8pp
• All cycles: 2024: D+10.8 2020: D+11.2 2016: D+7.5 2012: D+11.0 2008: D+12.2

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -565.91%
• Current HPI: 294.2062
• Rent YoY: ▲ 3.47%
• Metro: Seattle-Tacoma-Bellevue, WA
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 4.65%
• F500 in state: 22

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in WA)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Retail	2	$269B
▸Technology / Retail	1	$638B
▸Technology	1	$245B
▸Telecommunications	1	$38B
▸Food / Beverage	1	$36B
▸Automotive / Trucks	1	$34B

Price history

-33.3% since first listed

5 events — show timeline

• 2024-07-24 Pending — NWMLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2024-07-24 Relisted — NWMLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2024-07-24 Price Changed $140,000 NWMLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2024-04-03 Pending — NWMLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2024-03-10 Listed $209,950 NWMLS as Distributed by MLS Grid

Property tax history

+5.5%/yr

Latest (2026): $3,930 · +2.7% YoY. Source: county tax records.