6931 Knoll Bay Ln · Gloucester Courthouse, VA 23061

$315,000

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,386 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 42 Days on market

Built 1983 1.19 ac lot Est $320k · at est.

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Why this score? — see what drove the D grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +12.0/30.0
• ARV discount +8.2/15.0
• Schools +5.6/10.0
• Livability +3.7/5.0
• DSCR +3.6/10.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• 1% rule +2.3/10.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

Welcome to this charming 3-bedroom, 2 full bath rancher nestled on a spacious 1.19-acre lot. This home offers a comfortable and functional layout, featuring a sunken family room with a cozy wood stove and beautiful built-in cabinetry, perfect for relaxing or entertaining. The eat-in kitchen is equipped with granite countertops and stainless steel appliances, providing both style and convenience. Enjoy the outdoors from the large deck overlooking the expansive yard, or unwind on the inviting front porch. Replacement windows add efficiency and peace of mind. With plenty of space both inside and out, this property offers the perfect blend of comfort and country living!

Key facts

• Large deck
• Built-in cabinetry
• Wood stove

Tags

• SUNKEN FAMILY ROOM
• WOOD STOVE
• BUILT-IN CABINETRY
• GRANITE COUNTERTOPS
• STAINLESS STEEL APPLIANCES
• LARGE DECK

Property features AI

Finance

• Financial info: No investor or income/expense details provided
• HOA & community: No HOA fees

Exterior

• Parking: Parking details not provided
• Security: No security features listed
• Utilities: City/county water; Septic sewer; Electric water heater
• Home design: Detached ranch; Single-story
• Construction: Asphalt shingle roof
• Exterior features: Wood siding; Storage shed; Covered porch; Approximately 1.19 acres

Interior

• Kitchen: Range; Microwave; Refrigerator; Dishwasher; Breakfast area
• Bedrooms: First-floor master bedroom; Bedroom with full bathroom on first floor; Total of 5 rooms (includes living spaces and bedrooms)
• Flooring: Laminate; Vinyl; Wood
• Bathrooms: 2 full bathrooms
• Heating & cooling: Heat pump heating; Electric heating; Heat pump cooling; Window/wall cooling; Two-zone cooling
• Interior features: Ceiling fan; One fireplace
• Laundry & utility: Main floor laundry; Washer hookup; Dryer hookup

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath single-family listed at $315k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-73 ($-873/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $302k (4.1% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $231k (26.8% below list).
• Recommended offer: $231k (26.8% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Cap rate 6.0% vs local median 3.5% in Gloucester Courthouse — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 74/100 on livability (#150 in VA, #4,823 nationally) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: crime A+, health & safety A+, housing A-; Watch: amenities F, commute F.
• Gloucester County Public School District (rural): math 57% / reading 73% proficiency, ranked #37 of 131 in VA (top 28%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease.
• Zoned schools: Bethel Elementary (math 68% / reading 72%, grade A-, #311 of 1,108 statewide, top 28%, 498 students, 66% FRL); Gloucester High (math 58% / reading 86%, grade B+, #134 of 319 statewide, top 45%, 1,531 students, 39% FRL) — zoned schools average 53% FRL vs 29% district-wide (24 pts higher); higher-poverty schools than district average — tighter screening recommended.
• Market conditions: 224 active listings in the ZIP; 85 units permitted in Gloucester County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $2k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $9k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Gloucester County population projected to shrink 9% by 2050 — rents likely to lag national; underwrite the cash flow, not the appreciation.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 42 days — a 3% lower offer ($306k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 2 sale attempts with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: severe wind risk, 80% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→16/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $230,571 (26.8% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. It's been on market 42 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 27% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
3. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
4. Schools are A-rated — typically a magnet for longer-tenancy family renters. What's the average tenant stay here, and is there a school-zone premium baked into asking?
5. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
6. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
7. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
8. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.73% ✗
• Cap rate: 6.02%
• Cash-on-cash: -0.99%
• DSCR: 0.96
• GRM: 11.4

CMA / ARV

• ARV (on-the-fly): $320,166
• Comps found: 3

Show comp detail 3 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
6931 Knoll Bay Ln	0.00mi	3/2.0	1,386 (0%)	0mo	$315,000	$227	100
5825 Riverview Park Rd	0.18mi	3/2.0	1,248 (-10%)	13mo	$360,000	$288	65
5482 Ark Rd	0.69mi	4/2.0 (+1)	1,512 (+9%)	8mo	$350,000	$231	41

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -18.0%
• Equity multiple: 0.37×
• Total profit: $-55,814
• Equity at exit: $46,968

10-year hold

• IRR: -10.3%
• Equity multiple: 0.37×
• Total profit: $-55,131
• Equity at exit: $27,235

Cash invested: $88,200 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 55 Moderately Landlord-Leaning
• State Virginia: 55 Moderately Landlord-Leaning · D+2
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

VRLTA gives some tenant protections; Northern Virginia courts slower; rural VA landlord-leaning.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 23061

• Home prices YoY: -32.4%
• Active inventory: 224
• Price-to-rent: 11.4×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $2,306 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,652
• Tax from tax record: −$111 /mo · $1,333/yr
• Insurance: −$131
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$484
• Net cashflow: $-73

Break-even live

Break-even rent $2,398

Max offer price $302,153

Occupancy floor 98%

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $78,750
• Closing costs: $9,450
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Listing history 4 events

1. 2026-04-30
   historical Active Under Contract

   Show marketing remark (680 chars)

   Welcome to this charming 3-bedroom, 2 full bath rancher nestled on a spacious 1.19-acre lot. This home offers a comfortable and functional layout, featuring a sunken family room with a cozy wood stove and beautiful built-in cabinetry, perfect for relaxing or entertaining. The eat-in kitchen is equipped with granite countertops and stainless steel appliances, providing both style and convenience. Enjoy the outdoors from the large deck overlooking the expansive yard, or unwind on the inviting front porch. Replacement windows add efficiency and peace of mind. With plenty of space both inside and out, this property offers the perfect blend of comfort and country living!

2. 2026-04-30
   status Pending 680-char remark

   Show marketing remark (680 chars)

   Welcome to this charming 3-bedroom, 2 full bath rancher nestled on a spacious 1.19-acre lot. This home offers a comfortable and functional layout, featuring a sunken family room with a cozy wood stove and beautiful built-in cabinetry, perfect for relaxing or entertaining. The eat-in kitchen is equipped with granite countertops and stainless steel appliances, providing both style and convenience. Enjoy the outdoors from the large deck overlooking the expansive yard, or unwind on the inviting front porch. Replacement windows add efficiency and peace of mind. With plenty of space both inside and out, this property offers the perfect blend of comfort and country living!

3. 2026-04-16
   listed $315,000 Active 680-char remark

   Show marketing remark (680 chars)

   Welcome to this charming 3-bedroom, 2 full bath rancher nestled on a spacious 1.19-acre lot. This home offers a comfortable and functional layout, featuring a sunken family room with a cozy wood stove and beautiful built-in cabinetry, perfect for relaxing or entertaining. The eat-in kitchen is equipped with granite countertops and stainless steel appliances, providing both style and convenience. Enjoy the outdoors from the large deck overlooking the expansive yard, or unwind on the inviting front porch. Replacement windows add efficiency and peace of mind. With plenty of space both inside and out, this property offers the perfect blend of comfort and country living!

4. 2026-04-16
   listed $315,000 Active

   Show marketing remark (680 chars)

   Welcome to this charming 3-bedroom, 2 full bath rancher nestled on a spacious 1.19-acre lot. This home offers a comfortable and functional layout, featuring a sunken family room with a cozy wood stove and beautiful built-in cabinetry, perfect for relaxing or entertaining. The eat-in kitchen is equipped with granite countertops and stainless steel appliances, providing both style and convenience. Enjoy the outdoors from the large deck overlooking the expansive yard, or unwind on the inviting front porch. Replacement windows add efficiency and peace of mind. With plenty of space both inside and out, this property offers the perfect blend of comfort and country living!

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast VA · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $1,333 · $111/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $2,583 · $215/mo
• Expected delta: +$1,250/yr (+$104/mo · 93.8%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 3/10 Moderate
• 🌡 Heat 8/10 Severe 7 d/yr ≥108°F today · 16 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 8/10 Severe 80% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 1 unhealthy d/yr today · 1 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $27,669
• − Mortgage interest: −$17,645
• − Property taxes: −$1,333
• − Insurance: −$1,575
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$2,213
• − Management: −$2,213
• − Depreciation: −$9,164
• Taxable loss: −$6,475
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$1,554
• After-tax cash flow: $681/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Gloucester County Public School District
• NCES district ID: 5101620
• Math proficiency: 57% ▼ -30.00%
• Reading proficiency: 73% ▼ -8.00%
• Median HH income: $60,815
• Composite: 56.19/100
• National rank: #1177
• State rank: #37 of 131 in VA

Livability — Gloucester Courthouse

• Score: 74/100
• State rank: #150
• US rank: #4823

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living B- Crime A+ Employment B- Housing A- Health & safety A+ User ratings A

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• City population: 23,219
• Population (ZIP): 23,219

Population outlook (Gloucester County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 37,437 people
• By 2030: 37,286 · -0.4%
• By 2040: 36,224 · -3.2%
• By 2050: 34,171 · -8.7%
• By 2075: 30,472 · -18.6%
• By 2100: 25,832 · -31.0%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (85%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 85% Black 7% Two or more races 5% Hispanic / Latino 4%
• Common ancestry: Serbian 3% Lithuanian 2% Slovak 2%
• Foreign-born: 1%
• Languages at home: 98% English-only · Spanish 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Gloucester

• 2024 margin: Solid R (+38.4) · D 30.4% · R 68.8%
• 2008→2024 swing: -11.5pp toward R · 2008: -26.9pp · 2024: -38.4pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+38.4 2020: R+35.5 2016: R+39.4 2012: R+27.9 2008: R+26.9

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -83.96%
• Current HPI: 175.0236
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 2.40%
• F500 in state: 50

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in VA)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Aerospace / Defense	4	$236B
▸Technology / Defense	3	$32B
▸Financial Services	2	$176B
▸Utilities	2	$27B
▸Insurance	2	$25B
▸Technology	2	$15B

Price history

+0.0% since first listed

4 events — show timeline

• 2026-04-30 Contingent — REINMLS
• 2026-04-30 Pending — CBRAR
• 2026-04-16 Listed $315,000 CBRAR
• 2026-04-16 Listed $315,000 REINMLS

Property tax history

+1.5%/yr

Latest (2025): $1,333 · +5.3% YoY. Source: county tax records.