4537 Stanley Ave · Paw Paw Lake, MI 49098

$279,900

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,570 sqft · SingleFamily · 57 Days on market

Built 1965 0.40 ac lot $178/sqft · 12% below area Est $316k · 12% under

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Why this score? — see what drove the D grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• ARV discount +12.7/15.0
• Cash flow +12.0/30.0
• DSCR +3.5/10.0
• Livability +3.3/5.0
• Schools +3.1/10.0
• 1% rule +2.6/10.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

Well-built all-brick ranch with a full basement, fenced yard, and room to grow in a convenient Watervliet location. Solid all-brick 3 bedroom, 2 bath ranch offering space, durability, and everyday comfort in a convenient Watervliet location. Situated on a spacious lot, this home features a bright main living area, functional kitchen with breakfast nook, and well-sized bedrooms all on one level. The full basement provides excellent storage and potential for additional finished living space. Hot water heat powered by natural gas delivers consistent, efficient comfort throughout the home. Step outside to a large fenced backyard--ideal for pets, play, or entertaining--along with a concrete driveway and attached 2-car garage. With its low-maintenance brick exterior, practical layout, and room to expand, this home is ready for its next owner.

Key facts

• 0.4 acre lot
• Garage
• Built 1965

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath single-family listed at $280k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-68 ($-817/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $268k (4.3% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $213k (23.9% below list).
• Recommended offer: $213k (23.9% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 66/100 on livability (#420 in MI) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+, crime A; Watch: amenities F, commute F, health & safety F.
• Watervliet School District (town): math 31% / reading 43% proficiency, ranked #260 of 540 in MI (top 48%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Zoned schools: South Elementary School (359 students, 68% FRL); Watervliet Middle School (math 31% / reading 45%, grade F, #235 of 493 statewide, top 49%, 288 students, 62% FRL); Watervliet Senior High School (math 22% / reading 52%, grade F, #334 of 713 statewide, top 51%, 393 students, 61% FRL).
• Market conditions: 81 active listings in the ZIP; 4 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals lingering (median 46d on market — plan ~5-8 weeks vacancy on turnover, expect pricing pressure); 100% of comp listings sitting > 30 days — soft ceiling on asking rent; 397 units permitted in Berrien County in 2024 (40 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $2k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $8k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Berrien County population projected at -16% by 2050 — secular population decline; favor cash flow + early exit over multi-decade hold.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 57 days — a 3% lower offer ($272k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 9 sale attempts since 32y ago; this cycle's ask has dropped $19k (6%) from the opening price — seller is motivated, your offer sets the floor, not the list.
• Current owner paid $32k; list at $280k implies a 789% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.

Recommended offer $212,923 (23.9% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. It's been on market 57 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 24% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
3. Built in 1965 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
4. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
5. Schools are F-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
6. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
7. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
8. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
9. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.76% ✗
• Cap rate: 6.00%
• Cash-on-cash: -1.04%
• DSCR: 0.95
• GRM: 11.0

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $316,491
• List price: $279,900
• Delta: -11.56%
• Verdict: UNDERPRICED
• Comps: 20 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 12 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
1025 Richard Ave	0.42mi	3/2.0	1,628 (+4%)	6mo	$322,025	$198	70
617 Courtyard Pl	0.35mi	3/2.0	1,607 (+2%)	15mo	$353,125	$220	67
4549 Forest Beach Rd	0.10mi	3/2.0	1,765 (+12%)	11mo	$355,000	$201	65
3967 Hennesey Rd	0.74mi	3/2.0	1,597 (+2%)	2mo	$285,000	$178	61
340 High View St	0.69mi	4/2.0 (+1)	1,528 (-3%)	3mo	$235,052	$154	56
4557 Douglas Ter	0.64mi	3/2.5	1,624 (+3%)	8mo	$240,000	$148	56
7452 Red Arrow Hwy	0.59mi	2/1.5 (-1)	1,611 (+3%)	7mo	$269,900	$168	55
4530 Douglas Ter	0.67mi	2/2.0 (-1)	1,510 (-4%)	10mo	$286,435	$190	49
1033 Richard Ave	0.43mi	2/2.0 (-1)	1,756 (+12%)	8mo	$299,925	$171	49
7067 Curtis Dr	0.71mi	3/2.0	1,508 (-4%)	14mo	$340,000	$225	48
314 Riverside Dr	0.61mi	3/1.0	1,450 (-8%)	8mo	$215,000	$148	48
223 S Pleasant St	0.73mi	3/1.0	1,362 (-13%)	13mo	$186,900	$137	29

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -18.1%
• Equity multiple: 0.36×
• Total profit: $-49,771
• Equity at exit: $41,734

10-year hold

• IRR: -10.3%
• Equity multiple: 0.37×
• Total profit: $-49,250
• Equity at exit: $24,201

Cash invested: $78,372 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 62 Landlord-Friendly
• State Michigan: 62 Landlord-Friendly · EVEN
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

7-day pay-or-quit; mixed climate; Detroit/AA have some protections.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 49098

• Active inventory: 81
• Price-to-rent: 11.0×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $2,129 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,468
• Tax from tax record: −$166 /mo · $1,988/yr
• Insurance: −$117
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$447
• Net cashflow: $-68

Break-even live

Break-even rent $2,215

Max offer price $267,879

Occupancy floor 98%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $90	-5% $11	+0% $-68	+5% $-147	+10% $-226
Rent	-10% $-236	-5% $-152	+0% $-68	+5% $16	+10% $100
Rate	-1.0pp $73	-0.5pp $3	base $-68	+0.5pp $-141	+1.0pp $-214

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $69,975
• Closing costs: $8,397
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 4 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
4020 Sumner Dr Watervliet, MI	4.0	2.0	1750	$2,395	$1.37	45d	1	0.70mi
7604 Red Arrow Hwy Watervliet, MI	2.0–3.0	2.0	1078	$1,319	$1.22	45d	1	0.78mi
3882 Watertown Dr Watervliet, MI	4.0	2.0	1750	$2,195	$1.25	45d	1	0.89mi
3866 Watertown Dr Watervliet, MI	4.0	2.0	2060	$2,495	$1.21	45d	1	0.91mi

Listing history 34 events

1. 2026-06-04
   statusdays on market $279,900 Pending 57 DOM
2. 2026-06-02
   days on market $279,900 Active - Backup Offers Accepted 56 DOM
3. 2026-06-01
   days on market $279,900 Active - Backup Offers Accepted 55 DOM
4. 2026-05-31
   days on market $279,900 Active - Backup Offers Accepted 54 DOM
5. 2026-05-31
   days on market $279,900 Active - Backup Offers Accepted 53 DOM
6. 2026-05-19
   price $279,900 848-char remark

   Show marketing remark (848 chars)

   Well-built all-brick ranch with a full basement, fenced yard, and room to grow in a convenient Watervliet location. Solid all-brick 3 bedroom, 2 bath ranch offering space, durability, and everyday comfort in a convenient Watervliet location. Situated on a spacious lot, this home features a bright main living area, functional kitchen with breakfast nook, and well-sized bedrooms all on one level. The full basement provides excellent storage and potential for additional finished living space. Hot water heat powered by natural gas delivers consistent, efficient comfort throughout the home. Step outside to a large fenced backyard--ideal for pets, play, or entertaining--along with a concrete driveway and attached 2-car garage. With its low-maintenance brick exterior, practical layout, and room to expand, this home is ready for its next owner.

7. 2026-05-18
   price $279,900 848-char remark

   Show marketing remark (848 chars)

   Well-built all-brick ranch with a full basement, fenced yard, and room to grow in a convenient Watervliet location. Solid all-brick 3 bedroom, 2 bath ranch offering space, durability, and everyday comfort in a convenient Watervliet location. Situated on a spacious lot, this home features a bright main living area, functional kitchen with breakfast nook, and well-sized bedrooms all on one level. The full basement provides excellent storage and potential for additional finished living space. Hot water heat powered by natural gas delivers consistent, efficient comfort throughout the home. Step outside to a large fenced backyard--ideal for pets, play, or entertaining--along with a concrete driveway and attached 2-car garage. With its low-maintenance brick exterior, practical layout, and room to expand, this home is ready for its next owner.

8. 2026-05-18
   price $279,900

   Show marketing remark (848 chars)

   Well-built all-brick ranch with a full basement, fenced yard, and room to grow in a convenient Watervliet location. Solid all-brick 3 bedroom, 2 bath ranch offering space, durability, and everyday comfort in a convenient Watervliet location. Situated on a spacious lot, this home features a bright main living area, functional kitchen with breakfast nook, and well-sized bedrooms all on one level. The full basement provides excellent storage and potential for additional finished living space. Hot water heat powered by natural gas delivers consistent, efficient comfort throughout the home. Step outside to a large fenced backyard--ideal for pets, play, or entertaining--along with a concrete driveway and attached 2-car garage. With its low-maintenance brick exterior, practical layout, and room to expand, this home is ready for its next owner.

9. 2026-05-16
   price $287,500 848-char remark

   Show marketing remark (848 chars)

   Well-built all-brick ranch with a full basement, fenced yard, and room to grow in a convenient Watervliet location. Solid all-brick 3 bedroom, 2 bath ranch offering space, durability, and everyday comfort in a convenient Watervliet location. Situated on a spacious lot, this home features a bright main living area, functional kitchen with breakfast nook, and well-sized bedrooms all on one level. The full basement provides excellent storage and potential for additional finished living space. Hot water heat powered by natural gas delivers consistent, efficient comfort throughout the home. Step outside to a large fenced backyard--ideal for pets, play, or entertaining--along with a concrete driveway and attached 2-car garage. With its low-maintenance brick exterior, practical layout, and room to expand, this home is ready for its next owner.

10. 2026-05-16
    price $287,500 848-char remark

    Show marketing remark (848 chars)

    Well-built all-brick ranch with a full basement, fenced yard, and room to grow in a convenient Watervliet location. Solid all-brick 3 bedroom, 2 bath ranch offering space, durability, and everyday comfort in a convenient Watervliet location. Situated on a spacious lot, this home features a bright main living area, functional kitchen with breakfast nook, and well-sized bedrooms all on one level. The full basement provides excellent storage and potential for additional finished living space. Hot water heat powered by natural gas delivers consistent, efficient comfort throughout the home. Step outside to a large fenced backyard--ideal for pets, play, or entertaining--along with a concrete driveway and attached 2-car garage. With its low-maintenance brick exterior, practical layout, and room to expand, this home is ready for its next owner.

11. 2026-05-16
    price $287,500

    Show marketing remark (848 chars)

    Well-built all-brick ranch with a full basement, fenced yard, and room to grow in a convenient Watervliet location. Solid all-brick 3 bedroom, 2 bath ranch offering space, durability, and everyday comfort in a convenient Watervliet location. Situated on a spacious lot, this home features a bright main living area, functional kitchen with breakfast nook, and well-sized bedrooms all on one level. The full basement provides excellent storage and potential for additional finished living space. Hot water heat powered by natural gas delivers consistent, efficient comfort throughout the home. Step outside to a large fenced backyard--ideal for pets, play, or entertaining--along with a concrete driveway and attached 2-car garage. With its low-maintenance brick exterior, practical layout, and room to expand, this home is ready for its next owner.

12. 2026-05-12
    price $290,000 848-char remark

    Show marketing remark (848 chars)

    Well-built all-brick ranch with a full basement, fenced yard, and room to grow in a convenient Watervliet location. Solid all-brick 3 bedroom, 2 bath ranch offering space, durability, and everyday comfort in a convenient Watervliet location. Situated on a spacious lot, this home features a bright main living area, functional kitchen with breakfast nook, and well-sized bedrooms all on one level. The full basement provides excellent storage and potential for additional finished living space. Hot water heat powered by natural gas delivers consistent, efficient comfort throughout the home. Step outside to a large fenced backyard--ideal for pets, play, or entertaining--along with a concrete driveway and attached 2-car garage. With its low-maintenance brick exterior, practical layout, and room to expand, this home is ready for its next owner.

13. 2026-05-12
    price $290,000 848-char remark

    Show marketing remark (848 chars)

    Well-built all-brick ranch with a full basement, fenced yard, and room to grow in a convenient Watervliet location. Solid all-brick 3 bedroom, 2 bath ranch offering space, durability, and everyday comfort in a convenient Watervliet location. Situated on a spacious lot, this home features a bright main living area, functional kitchen with breakfast nook, and well-sized bedrooms all on one level. The full basement provides excellent storage and potential for additional finished living space. Hot water heat powered by natural gas delivers consistent, efficient comfort throughout the home. Step outside to a large fenced backyard--ideal for pets, play, or entertaining--along with a concrete driveway and attached 2-car garage. With its low-maintenance brick exterior, practical layout, and room to expand, this home is ready for its next owner.

14. 2026-05-12
    price $290,000

    Show marketing remark (848 chars)

    Well-built all-brick ranch with a full basement, fenced yard, and room to grow in a convenient Watervliet location. Solid all-brick 3 bedroom, 2 bath ranch offering space, durability, and everyday comfort in a convenient Watervliet location. Situated on a spacious lot, this home features a bright main living area, functional kitchen with breakfast nook, and well-sized bedrooms all on one level. The full basement provides excellent storage and potential for additional finished living space. Hot water heat powered by natural gas delivers consistent, efficient comfort throughout the home. Step outside to a large fenced backyard--ideal for pets, play, or entertaining--along with a concrete driveway and attached 2-car garage. With its low-maintenance brick exterior, practical layout, and room to expand, this home is ready for its next owner.

15. 2026-05-01
    price $293,000 848-char remark

    Show marketing remark (848 chars)

    Well-built all-brick ranch with a full basement, fenced yard, and room to grow in a convenient Watervliet location. Solid all-brick 3 bedroom, 2 bath ranch offering space, durability, and everyday comfort in a convenient Watervliet location. Situated on a spacious lot, this home features a bright main living area, functional kitchen with breakfast nook, and well-sized bedrooms all on one level. The full basement provides excellent storage and potential for additional finished living space. Hot water heat powered by natural gas delivers consistent, efficient comfort throughout the home. Step outside to a large fenced backyard--ideal for pets, play, or entertaining--along with a concrete driveway and attached 2-car garage. With its low-maintenance brick exterior, practical layout, and room to expand, this home is ready for its next owner.

16. 2026-04-30
    price $293,000 848-char remark

    Show marketing remark (848 chars)

    Well-built all-brick ranch with a full basement, fenced yard, and room to grow in a convenient Watervliet location. Solid all-brick 3 bedroom, 2 bath ranch offering space, durability, and everyday comfort in a convenient Watervliet location. Situated on a spacious lot, this home features a bright main living area, functional kitchen with breakfast nook, and well-sized bedrooms all on one level. The full basement provides excellent storage and potential for additional finished living space. Hot water heat powered by natural gas delivers consistent, efficient comfort throughout the home. Step outside to a large fenced backyard--ideal for pets, play, or entertaining--along with a concrete driveway and attached 2-car garage. With its low-maintenance brick exterior, practical layout, and room to expand, this home is ready for its next owner.

17. 2026-04-30
    price $293,000

    Show marketing remark (848 chars)

    Well-built all-brick ranch with a full basement, fenced yard, and room to grow in a convenient Watervliet location. Solid all-brick 3 bedroom, 2 bath ranch offering space, durability, and everyday comfort in a convenient Watervliet location. Situated on a spacious lot, this home features a bright main living area, functional kitchen with breakfast nook, and well-sized bedrooms all on one level. The full basement provides excellent storage and potential for additional finished living space. Hot water heat powered by natural gas delivers consistent, efficient comfort throughout the home. Step outside to a large fenced backyard--ideal for pets, play, or entertaining--along with a concrete driveway and attached 2-car garage. With its low-maintenance brick exterior, practical layout, and room to expand, this home is ready for its next owner.

18. 2026-04-18
    price $296,000 848-char remark

    Show marketing remark (848 chars)

    Well-built all-brick ranch with a full basement, fenced yard, and room to grow in a convenient Watervliet location. Solid all-brick 3 bedroom, 2 bath ranch offering space, durability, and everyday comfort in a convenient Watervliet location. Situated on a spacious lot, this home features a bright main living area, functional kitchen with breakfast nook, and well-sized bedrooms all on one level. The full basement provides excellent storage and potential for additional finished living space. Hot water heat powered by natural gas delivers consistent, efficient comfort throughout the home. Step outside to a large fenced backyard--ideal for pets, play, or entertaining--along with a concrete driveway and attached 2-car garage. With its low-maintenance brick exterior, practical layout, and room to expand, this home is ready for its next owner.

19. 2026-04-18
    price $296,000 848-char remark

    Show marketing remark (848 chars)

    Well-built all-brick ranch with a full basement, fenced yard, and room to grow in a convenient Watervliet location. Solid all-brick 3 bedroom, 2 bath ranch offering space, durability, and everyday comfort in a convenient Watervliet location. Situated on a spacious lot, this home features a bright main living area, functional kitchen with breakfast nook, and well-sized bedrooms all on one level. The full basement provides excellent storage and potential for additional finished living space. Hot water heat powered by natural gas delivers consistent, efficient comfort throughout the home. Step outside to a large fenced backyard--ideal for pets, play, or entertaining--along with a concrete driveway and attached 2-car garage. With its low-maintenance brick exterior, practical layout, and room to expand, this home is ready for its next owner.

20. 2026-04-18
    price $296,000

    Show marketing remark (848 chars)

    Well-built all-brick ranch with a full basement, fenced yard, and room to grow in a convenient Watervliet location. Solid all-brick 3 bedroom, 2 bath ranch offering space, durability, and everyday comfort in a convenient Watervliet location. Situated on a spacious lot, this home features a bright main living area, functional kitchen with breakfast nook, and well-sized bedrooms all on one level. The full basement provides excellent storage and potential for additional finished living space. Hot water heat powered by natural gas delivers consistent, efficient comfort throughout the home. Step outside to a large fenced backyard--ideal for pets, play, or entertaining--along with a concrete driveway and attached 2-car garage. With its low-maintenance brick exterior, practical layout, and room to expand, this home is ready for its next owner.

21. 2026-04-07
    listed $299,000 Active 848-char remark

    Show marketing remark (848 chars)

    Well-built all-brick ranch with a full basement, fenced yard, and room to grow in a convenient Watervliet location. Solid all-brick 3 bedroom, 2 bath ranch offering space, durability, and everyday comfort in a convenient Watervliet location. Situated on a spacious lot, this home features a bright main living area, functional kitchen with breakfast nook, and well-sized bedrooms all on one level. The full basement provides excellent storage and potential for additional finished living space. Hot water heat powered by natural gas delivers consistent, efficient comfort throughout the home. Step outside to a large fenced backyard--ideal for pets, play, or entertaining--along with a concrete driveway and attached 2-car garage. With its low-maintenance brick exterior, practical layout, and room to expand, this home is ready for its next owner.

22. 2026-04-07
    listed $299,000 Active 848-char remark

    Show marketing remark (848 chars)

    Well-built all-brick ranch with a full basement, fenced yard, and room to grow in a convenient Watervliet location. Solid all-brick 3 bedroom, 2 bath ranch offering space, durability, and everyday comfort in a convenient Watervliet location. Situated on a spacious lot, this home features a bright main living area, functional kitchen with breakfast nook, and well-sized bedrooms all on one level. The full basement provides excellent storage and potential for additional finished living space. Hot water heat powered by natural gas delivers consistent, efficient comfort throughout the home. Step outside to a large fenced backyard--ideal for pets, play, or entertaining--along with a concrete driveway and attached 2-car garage. With its low-maintenance brick exterior, practical layout, and room to expand, this home is ready for its next owner.

23. 2026-04-07
    listed $299,000 Active

    Show marketing remark (848 chars)

    Well-built all-brick ranch with a full basement, fenced yard, and room to grow in a convenient Watervliet location. Solid all-brick 3 bedroom, 2 bath ranch offering space, durability, and everyday comfort in a convenient Watervliet location. Situated on a spacious lot, this home features a bright main living area, functional kitchen with breakfast nook, and well-sized bedrooms all on one level. The full basement provides excellent storage and potential for additional finished living space. Hot water heat powered by natural gas delivers consistent, efficient comfort throughout the home. Step outside to a large fenced backyard--ideal for pets, play, or entertaining--along with a concrete driveway and attached 2-car garage. With its low-maintenance brick exterior, practical layout, and room to expand, this home is ready for its next owner.

24. 2025-12-01
    historical
25. 2025-09-13
    listed $299,900 Active
26. 2025-09-13
    listed $299,900 Active
27. 2013-10-30
    soldstatus $31,500
28. 2013-10-30
    soldstatus $31,500
29. 2013-09-07
    listed $34,999
30. 2013-09-07
    listed $34,999
31. 1994-08-19
    soldstatus $79,400
32. 1994-08-19
    soldstatus $79,400
33. 1994-06-25
    listed $83,900
34. 1994-06-25
    listed $83,900

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast MI · Partial reset (capped growth)

• Current annual tax: $1,988 · $166/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $3,149 · $262/mo
• Expected delta: +$1,161/yr (+$97/mo · 58.4%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 1/10 Low
• 🌡 Heat 2/10 Low 7 d/yr ≥99°F today · 15 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 2/10 Low
• 🫁 Air quality 4/10 Moderate 4 unhealthy d/yr today · 7 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $25,551
• − Mortgage interest: −$15,679
• − Property taxes: −$1,988
• − Insurance: −$1,400
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$2,044
• − Management: −$2,044
• − Depreciation: −$8,143
• Taxable loss: −$5,746
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$1,379
• After-tax cash flow: $563/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Watervliet School District
• NCES district ID: 2635460
• Math proficiency: 31% ▼ -9.00%
• Reading proficiency: 43% ▼ -1.00%
• Median HH income: $42,249
• Composite: 31.22/100
• National rank: #6034
• State rank: #260 of 540 in MI

Livability — Paw Paw Lake

• Score: 66/100
• State rank: #420
• US rank: #11496

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime A Employment B- Housing A+ Health & safety F User ratings A

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Paw Paw Lake, MI
• Population (ZIP): 5,791

Population outlook (Berrien County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 149,273 people
• By 2030: 145,211 · -2.7%
• By 2040: 135,435 · -9.3%
• By 2050: 125,543 · -15.9%
• By 2075: 103,986 · -30.3%
• By 2100: 82,256 · -44.9%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (81%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 81% Hispanic / Latino 9% Black 5% Two or more races 3% Asian 1%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 8%
• Common ancestry: Iranian 7% Romanian 4% Slovak 2%
• Foreign-born: 3% · Canada, Vietnam
• Languages at home: 96% English-only · Spanish 3% French/Haitian/Cajun 0%

Political lean MEDSL · Berrien

• 2024 margin: Lean R (+7.9) · D 45.4% · R 53.2% · Other 1.4%
• 2008→2024 swing: -13.3pp toward R · 2008: 5.5pp · 2024: -7.9pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+7.9 2020: R+7.4 2016: R+12.7 2012: R+6.6 2008: D+5.5

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -223.00%
• Current HPI: 208.2105
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 1.37%
• F500 in state: 28

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in MI)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Automotive Parts	3	$48B
▸Automotive	2	$372B
▸Chemicals	1	$45B
▸Automotive Retail	1	$29B
▸Healthcare / Medical Devices	1	$23B
▸Automotive Technology	1	$20B

Price history

+233.6% since first listed

29 events — show timeline

• 2026-05-19 Price Changed $279,900 MiRealSource-MiMLS
• 2026-05-18 Price Changed $279,900 REALCOMP
• 2026-05-18 Price Changed $279,900 SW Michigan MLS
• 2026-05-16 Price Changed $287,500 MiRealSource-MiMLS
• 2026-05-16 Price Changed $287,500 REALCOMP
• 2026-05-16 Price Changed $287,500 SW Michigan MLS
• 2026-05-12 Price Changed $290,000 MiRealSource-MiMLS
• 2026-05-12 Price Changed $290,000 REALCOMP
• 2026-05-12 Price Changed $290,000 SW Michigan MLS
• 2026-05-01 Price Changed $293,000 MiRealSource-MiMLS
• 2026-04-30 Price Changed $293,000 REALCOMP
• 2026-04-30 Price Changed $293,000 SW Michigan MLS
• 2026-04-18 Price Changed $296,000 MiRealSource-MiMLS
• 2026-04-18 Price Changed $296,000 REALCOMP
• 2026-04-18 Price Changed $296,000 SW Michigan MLS
• 2026-04-07 Listed $299,000 REALCOMP
• 2026-04-07 Listed $299,000 SW Michigan MLS
• 2026-04-07 Listed $299,000 MiRealSource-MiMLS
• 2025-12-01 Listing Removed — MiRealSource-MiMLS
• 2025-09-13 Listed $299,900 REALCOMP
• 2025-09-13 Listed $299,900 MiRealSource-MiMLS
• 2013-10-30 Sold (MLS) $31,500 REALCOMP
• 2013-10-30 Sold (MLS) $31,500 SW Michigan MLS
• 2013-09-07 Listed $34,999 REALCOMP
• 2013-09-07 Listed $34,999 SW Michigan MLS
• 1994-08-19 Sold (MLS) $79,400 REALCOMP
• 1994-08-19 Sold (MLS) $79,400 SW Michigan MLS
• 1994-06-25 Listed $83,900 REALCOMP
• 1994-06-25 Listed $83,900 SW Michigan MLS

Property tax history

+1.1%/yr

Latest (2024): $1,988 · +4.0% YoY. Source: county tax records.