2159 E Stacey Rd · Gilbert, AZ 85298

$500,000

4 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,734 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 7 Days on market

Built 2014 5,750 sqft lot Est $517k · at est. $104/mo HOA · 4% of rent

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Why this score? — see what drove the D grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Appreciation +9.2/10.0
• ARV discount +9.0/15.0
• Cash flow +6.3/30.0
• Schools +4.8/10.0
• Livability +4.4/5.0
• Rent growth +3.6/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• 1% rule +0.6/10.0
• DSCR +0.6/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

A Gorgeous 3 Bedroom 2 Bathroom home in beautiful Adora Trails community with fitness center, club house and swimming pool. Great floor plan. New carpet. Spacious family room with vaulted ceiling; Study room with closet can be an extra bedroom. All tile floor in living room and kitchen, Stainless steel appliances, front load washer and dryer, ceiling fan in each room. Easy access to freeway, close to dinning, shopping and school. Check it out today!

Key facts

• 5,750 sq ft lot
• 2 garage spots
• Community pool

Property features AI

Finance

• HOA & community: Homeowners association with a monthly fee of $104; HOA covers grounds maintenance; Community amenities: pool, playground, fitness center

Exterior

• Parking: Covered parking for 2; 2-car garage with extended length; Garage door opener; RV gate
• Utilities: City water; Public sewer
• Home design: Single-family home; Fee simple ownership
• Construction: Stucco and painted wood-frame construction; Tile roof
• Exterior features: Desert front and back yard; Block fencing; Reflective roof coating

Interior

• Kitchen: Built-in microwave; Dishwasher; Garbage disposal; Pantry
• Bedrooms: Up to 4 bedrooms
• Flooring: Carpet; Tile
• Bathrooms: 2 full bathrooms
• Heating & cooling: Natural gas heating; Central air conditioning; Programmable thermostat
• Interior features: High-speed internet; Granite counters; Double vanity in bath; Eat-in kitchen; Vaulted ceilings; Pantry; Separate shower and tub; Low-E, dual-pane vinyl-frame windows; Energy audit performed; Fresh air mechanical system
• Laundry & utility: Indoor laundry

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 4-bed/2.0-bath single-family listed at $500k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-888 ($-11k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $343k (31.4% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $279k (44.1% below list).
• Recommended offer: $279k (44.1% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Cap rate 4.2% vs local median 3.2% in Gilbert — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 87/100 on livability (#1 in AZ, #240 nationally) — a professional / high-income tenant draw. Strengths: amenities A+, employment A+, housing A+; Watch: health & safety C-, cost of living F.
• Chandler Unified District #80 (4242) (suburban): math 49% / reading 57% proficiency, ranked #31 of 249 in AZ (top 12%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease.
• Zoned schools: Charlotte Patterson Elementary (math 60% / reading 71%, grade B+, #92 of 1,109 statewide, top 9%, 851 students, 8% FRL); Willie & Coy Payne Jr. High (math 47% / reading 53%, grade C, #26 of 218 statewide, top 12%, 1,143 students, 11% FRL); Basha High School (math 61% / reading 61%, grade C+, #17 of 381 statewide, top 4%, 2,814 students, 11% FRL) — zoned schools average 10% FRL vs 25% district-wide (15 pts lower); this property's tenant base skews higher-income than the district average.
• Market conditions: Rents rising fast (+4.3%/yr); 329 active listings in the ZIP; 11 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 19d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); high-income renter base; 36,011 units permitted in Maricopa County in 2024 (12,801 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• In year one you build about $45k of equity ($3k loan paydown + $42k appreciation (8.4% local appreciation)).
• Maricopa County population projected at +38% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.
• By year 2, paydown + projected appreciation supports a ~$73k cash-out refi (75% LTV) — recoverable capital for the next deal without selling this one.

Negotiation context

• Only 7 days on market — expect competitive offers; lowballing is unlikely to land.
• 3 sale attempts since 13y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: major wildfire risk; extreme-heat days projected 7→20/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $279,259 (44.1% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
3. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
4. Schools are A-rated — typically a magnet for longer-tenancy family renters. What's the average tenant stay here, and is there a school-zone premium baked into asking?
5. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
6. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
7. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
8. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.56% ✗
• Cap rate: 4.16%
• Cash-on-cash: -7.61%
• DSCR: 0.66
• GRM: 14.9

CMA / ARV

• ARV (on-the-fly): $516,732
• Comps found: 12

Show comp detail 12 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
2315 E Hazeltine Way	0.20mi	4/2.0	1,734 (0%)	3mo	$507,500	$293	88
2177 E Gillcrest Rd	0.32mi	4/2.0	1,731 (-0%)	0mo	$505,000	$292	85
2108 E Lindrick Dr	0.13mi	4/2.0	1,734 (0%)	14mo	$550,000	$317	82
2009 E Lindrick Dr	0.21mi	3/2.0 (-1)	1,734 (0%)	10mo	$517,500	$298	76
7764 S Abbey Ln	0.31mi	4/2.0	1,759 (+1%)	10mo	$570,000	$324	75
2445 E Flintlock Dr	0.40mi	3/2.0 (-1)	1,759 (+1%)	2mo	$550,000	$313	72
2218 E Gillcrest Rd	0.37mi	4/2.0	1,731 (-0%)	15mo	$525,000	$303	70
7761 S Abbey Ln	0.34mi	3/2.0 (-1)	1,759 (+1%)	19mo	$505,000	$287	61
7665 S Stuart Ave	0.74mi	3/2.0 (-1)	1,759 (+1%)	6mo	$510,000	$290	53
2042 E Flintlock Dr	0.26mi	4/2.0	1,952 (+13%)	19mo	$540,000	$277	51
2027 E Hazeltine Way	0.18mi	4/3.0	1,959 (+13%)	19mo	$545,000	$278	50
2327 E Runaway Bay Pl	0.67mi	3/2.0 (-1)	1,759 (+1%)	17mo	$545,000	$310	47

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

8.36% appreciation · 4.31% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 15.4%
• Equity multiple: 2.18×
• Total profit: $164,607
• Equity at exit: $392,275

10-year hold

• IRR: 15.3%
• Equity multiple: 4.77×
• Total profit: $528,119
• Equity at exit: $790,807

Cash invested: $140,000 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Arizona: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+3
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

5-day pay-or-quit; AZ courts known for speed; no state rent control; cities preempted by state law.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 85298

• Home prices YoY: 2.5%
• Rents YoY: 4.3%
• Active inventory: 329
• Price-to-rent: 14.9×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $2,793 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$2,622
• Tax from tax record: −$160 /mo · $1,921/yr
• Insurance: −$208
• HOA: −$104
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$586
• Net cashflow: $-888

Break-even live

Break-even rent $3,917

Max offer price $343,067

Occupancy floor —

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $-605	-5% $-747	+0% $-888	+5% $-1,030	+10% $-1,171
Rent	-10% $-1,109	-5% $-999	+0% $-888	+5% $-778	+10% $-668
Rate	-1.0pp $-637	-0.5pp $-761	base $-888	+0.5pp $-1,018	+1.0pp $-1,150

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $125,000
• Closing costs: $15,000
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 11 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
2223 E Hazeltine Way Gilbert, AZ	3.0	2.0	1734	$2,549	$1.47	5d	1	0.11mi
2227 E Stacey Rd Gilbert, AZ	3.0	2.0	1569	$2,499	$1.59	19d	1	0.11mi
6718 S Garnet Way Chandler, AZ	3.0	2.0	1792	$2,100	$1.17	25d	1	0.80mi
2723 E Mews Rd Gilbert, AZ	3.0	2.0	1759	$2,495	$1.42	19d	1	0.97mi
2723 E Mews Rd Gilbert, AZ	3.0	2.0	1759	$2,395	$1.36	3d	1	0.97mi
1673 E Lafayette Ave Gilbert, AZ	3.0	2.0	1776	$2,500	$1.41	44d	1	1.24mi
4588 E Indian Wells Dr Chandler, AZ	4.0	2.0	2134	$2,495	$1.17	3d	1	1.26mi
4424 E Peach Tree Dr Chandler, AZ	4.0	2.0	2082	$2,550	$1.22	44d	1	1.32mi
4649 E Augusta Ave Chandler, AZ	3.0	2.0	2192	$2,350	$1.07	24d	1	1.39mi
4649 E Augusta Ave Chandler, AZ	3.0	2.0	2192	$2,350	$1.07	5d	1	1.39mi
6081 S Topaz Pl Chandler, AZ	4.0	2.0	1842	$2,095	$1.14	22d	1	1.48mi

HOA detail

• Monthly dues: $104 · $1,248/yr
• Likely covers: poolgym

Listing history 7 events

1. 2026-06-18
   days on market $500,000 Active 7 DOM
2. 2026-06-17
   days on market $500,000 Active 6 DOM
3. 2026-06-16
   days on market $500,000 Active 5 DOM
4. 2026-06-15
   days on market $500,000 Active 4 DOM
5. 2026-06-13
   days on market $500,000 Active 2 DOM
6. 2026-06-13
   remarks 699-char remark
7. 2026-06-13
   listed $500,000 Active 1 DOM

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast AZ · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $1,921 · $160/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $3,300 · $275/mo
• Expected delta: +$1,379/yr (+$115/mo · 71.7%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (shaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 6/10 Major
• 🌡 Heat 9/10 Extreme 7 d/yr ≥112°F today · 20 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 1/10 Low
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 0 unhealthy d/yr today · 1 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $33,511
• − Mortgage interest: −$28,008
• − Property taxes: −$1,921
• − Insurance: −$2,500
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$2,681
• − Management: −$2,681
• − HOA: −$1,248
• − Depreciation: −$14,545
• Taxable loss: −$20,073
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$4,818
• After-tax cash flow: $-5,843/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Chandler Unified District #80 (4242)
• NCES district ID: 0401870
• Math proficiency: 49% ▼ -8.00%
• Reading proficiency: 57% ▼ -2.00%
• Median HH income: $74,048
• Composite: 47.54/100
• National rank: #2268
• State rank: #31 of 249 in AZ

Livability — Gilbert

• Score: 87/100
• State rank: #1
• US rank: #240

Category grades

Amenities A+ Commute A Cost of living F Crime A Employment A+ Housing A+ Health & safety C- User ratings B+

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Gilbert, AZ
• County: Maricopa County · 4,537,380 people
• City population: 281,769
• Metro: Phoenix-Mesa-Chandler, AZ
• Population (ZIP): 44,114
• Household income: $156,425
• Rent vs Own: 8.9% rent · 91.1% own
• Severe rent burden: 173.0

Population outlook (Maricopa County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 4,979,203 people
• By 2030: 5,378,229 · +8.0%
• By 2040: 6,156,598 · +23.6%
• By 2050: 6,872,376 · +38.0%
• By 2075: 8,401,270 · +68.7%
• By 2100: 9,247,439 · +85.7%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (72%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 72% Hispanic / Latino 14% Two or more races 11% Asian 7% Black 2%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 10%
• Common ancestry: Italian 4% Romanian 3% Lithuanian 3%
• Foreign-born: 9% · Canada, China, Vietnam
• Languages at home: 85% English-only · Spanish 7% Other Indo-European 2% Chinese 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Maricopa

• 2024 margin: Toss-up / Even · D 47.7% · R 51.2% · Other 1.1%
• 2008→2024 swing: +7.1pp toward D · 2008: -10.6pp · 2024: -3.5pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+3.5 2020: D+2.2 2016: R+3.5 2012: R+12.0 2008: R+10.6

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▲ 8.36%
• Current HPI: 343.6932
• Rent YoY: ▲ 4.31%
• Metro: Phoenix-Mesa-Chandler, AZ
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 4.54%
• F500 in state: 20

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in AZ)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Technology	2	$13B
▸Mining / Metals	1	$23B
▸Environmental Services	1	$16B
▸Metals / Steel	1	$14B
▸Technology Distribution	1	$9B
▸Homebuilding	1	$8B

Price history

+89.2% since first listed

11 events — show timeline

• 2026-06-11 Listed $500,000 ARMLS
• 2023-05-31 Sold (Public Records) $495,000 Public Records
• 2023-05-31 Sold (MLS) $495,000 ARMLS
• 2023-04-18 Pending — ARMLS
• 2023-04-04 Price Changed $498,000 ARMLS
• 2023-03-03 Listed $528,000 ARMLS
• 2014-02-23 Sold (MLS) $260,000 ARMLS
• 2014-02-18 Pending — ARMLS
• 2014-01-21 Price Changed $266,127 ARMLS
• 2014-01-06 Price Changed $264,132 ARMLS
• 2013-10-18 Listed $264,267 ARMLS

Property tax history

+12.0%/yr

Latest (2025): $1,921 · +1.2% YoY. Source: county tax records.