The Oriole II Plan · Montgomery, TX 77316

$262,990

3 bd · 2.5 ba · 2,061 sqft · SingleFamily · 109 Days on market

Good condition

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Why this score? — see what drove the F grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• Schools +5.8/10.0
• Condition / age +4.0/5.0
• Livability +3.5/5.0
• Cash flow +3.1/30.0
• Rent growth +2.6/5.0
• 1% rule +0.0/10.0
• DSCR +0.0/10.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks

Experience the best of two-story living with the Oriole II. The first floor features a spacious, open-concept design that connects the family room, kitchen, and dining area seamlessly. A conveniently located half bath is situated across from the staircase. Upstairs, youll find three bedrooms, two full baths, and a loft space. The primary bedroom and bathroom are thoughtfully placed on the opposite side of the loft, offering privacy and direct access to the laundry room. You can replace the loft with a fourth bedroom if you need additional sleeping space.

Key facts

• Open-concept design
• Half bath
• Primary bedroom

Tags

• OPEN-CONCEPT DESIGN
• HALF BATH
• LOFT SPACE
• PRIMARY BEDROOM
• DIRECT ACCESS TO LAUNDRY ROOM

🏗️ New construction. The $262,990 list price is a builder figure, so every metric below is computed on the value from comparable previous sales — $453,570.

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/2.5-bath single-family listed at $263k. Condition is rated good.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-1k ($-18k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $242k (7.8% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $212k (19.4% below list).
• Recommended offer: $212k (19.4% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 70/100 on livability (#372 in TX) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: crime A+, employment A+, housing A+; Watch: amenities F, commute F, health & safety F.
• Montgomery ISD (rural): math 63% / reading 57% proficiency, ranked #49 of 826 in TX (top 6%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease.
• Zoned schools: Lone Star El (math 57% / reading 61%, grade B-, #455 of 4,322 statewide, top 11%, 766 students, 16% FRL); Montgomery J H (math 68% / reading 54%, grade B+, #145 of 1,662 statewide, top 9%, 1,045 students, 30% FRL); Montgomery H S (math 53% / reading 62%, grade C, #327 of 1,632 statewide, top 20%, 1,556 students, 25% FRL) — zoned schools at 24% FRL track the district average.
• Market conditions: Rents flat; 2717 active listings in the ZIP; high-income renter base; 13,259 units permitted in Montgomery County in 2024 (1,402 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $3k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $14k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Montgomery County population projected at +65% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 109 days — a 9% lower offer ($239k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.

Risks & watch-outs

• Watch-outs: property tax is 2.6% of price.
• Climate carrying-cost: severe wind risk, 99% chance of damaging wind over 30y; moderate wildfire risk; extreme-heat days projected 7→25/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $212,003 (19.4% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. It's been on market 109 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 19% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
3. Property tax is high relative to price — has the assessment been appealed recently, and will the sale trigger a re-assessment?
4. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
5. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
6. Schools are B-rated — typically a magnet for longer-tenancy family renters. What's the average tenant stay here, and is there a school-zone premium baked into asking?
7. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
8. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
9. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
10. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.47% ✗
• Cap rate: 2.43%
• Cash-on-cash: -13.79%
• DSCR: 0.39
• GRM: 17.8

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $453,570
• List price: $262,990
• Delta: -42.02%
• Verdict: UNDERPRICED
• Comps: 8 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 5 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
18768 Dalton Willis Dr Dr	0.40mi	3/2.0	2,035 (-1%)	11mo	$598,000	$294	68
8142 Hills Pkwy	0.92mi	3/2.5	2,122 (+3%)	1mo	$1,190,000	$561	59
8142 Hills Pkwy	0.92mi	3/2.5	2,122 (+3%)	28mo	$690,000	$325	40
8230 Hills Pkwy	1.23mi	4/2.0 (+1)	2,203 (+7%)	18mo	$498,800	$226	32
19549 Fm 2854 Rd	1.01mi	3/2.0	1,795 (-13%)	21mo	$349,000	$194	24

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 0.4% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -45.1%
• Equity multiple: -0.35×
• Total profit: $-171,841
• Equity at exit: $67,629

10-year hold

• IRR: -99.4%
• Equity multiple: -1.29×
• Total profit: $-290,276
• Equity at exit: $39,216

Cash invested: $127,000 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Texas: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+5
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day notice; statewide preemption; one of the fastest eviction climates; Travis County (Austin) slightly slower.

Methodology + full state rankings →

Buyer's market Market conditions within 1.0 mi — comparable homes for sale

Active competition Active MLS

• For sale now: 30 active · 1 under contract
• Months of supply: 180.0 mo (1%/mo absorbed)
• Median asking: $333,272 ($170/sqft)
• Median days on market: 109 d
• This list price: 10% of active listings are priced below it
• ARV vs active asking: +29.3% above current asking $/sqft

Closed sales set the value; these active listings set current market conditions and a practical price ceiling.

ZIP-level market 77316

• Home prices YoY: -10.7%
• Rents YoY: 0.4%
• Active inventory: 2717
• Price-to-rent: 10.3×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $2,120 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$2,379
• Tax est. 1.5%: −$567 /mo · $6,804/yr
• Insurance: −$189
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$445
• Net cashflow: $-1,460

Break-even live

Break-even rent $3,968

Max offer price $242,350

Occupancy floor —

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $-1,146	-5% $-1,303	+0% $-1,460	+5% $-1,616	+10% $-1,773
Rent	-10% $-1,627	-5% $-1,543	+0% $-1,460	+5% $-1,376	+10% $-1,292
Rate	-1.0pp $-1,231	-0.5pp $-1,344	base $-1,460	+0.5pp $-1,577	+1.0pp $-1,697

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $113,393
• Closing costs: $13,607
• Club membership (one-time): —
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Property features AI

Finance

• Financial info: List price $262,990

Exterior

• Parking: 2 parking spaces
• Utilities: Heat pump heatingCentral air conditioning
• Home design: Plan: The Oriole IINew construction plan
• Construction: Living area approximately 2,061 (plan specified)
• Exterior features: Property located on Keenan Cut Off Rd, Montgomery, TX

Interior

• Bedrooms: 3 bedrooms
• Bathrooms: 2 full bathrooms and 1 half bathroom (2.5 total)
• Heating & cooling: Heat pump heatingCentral air conditioning
• Interior features: Open living area (2,061 square feet total living area)

Listing history 50 events

1. 2026-08-08
   days on market $262,990 Active 109 DOM
2. 2026-08-06
   days on market $262,990 Active 107 DOM
3. 2026-08-05
   days on market $262,990 Active 106 DOM
4. 2026-08-04
   days on market $262,990 Active 105 DOM
5. 2026-08-03
   days on market $262,990 Active 104 DOM
6. 2026-07-31
   days on market $262,990 Active 101 DOM
7. 2026-07-30
   days on market $262,990 Active 99 DOM
8. 2026-07-28
   days on market $262,990 Active 98 DOM
9. 2026-07-24
   days on market $262,990 Active 94 DOM
10. 2026-07-23
    days on market $262,990 Active 93 DOM
11. 2026-07-22
    days on market $262,990 Active 92 DOM
12. 2026-07-21
    days on market $262,990 Active 91 DOM
13. 2026-07-20
    days on market $262,990 Active 90 DOM
14. 2026-07-18
    days on market $262,990 Active 88 DOM
15. 2026-07-18
    days on market $262,990 Active 87 DOM
16. 2026-07-16
    days on market $262,990 Active 86 DOM
17. 2026-07-15
    days on market $262,990 Active 85 DOM
18. 2026-07-14
    days on market $262,990 Active 84 DOM
19. 2026-07-13
    days on market $262,990 Active 83 DOM
20. 2026-07-13
    days on market $262,990 Active 82 DOM
21. 2026-07-11
    days on market $262,990 Active 81 DOM
22. 2026-07-10
    days on market $262,990 Active 80 DOM
23. 2026-07-09
    days on market $262,990 Active 79 DOM
24. 2026-07-07
    days on market $262,990 Active 77 DOM
25. 2026-07-06
    days on market $262,990 Active 76 DOM
26. 2026-07-06
    days on market $262,990 Active 75 DOM
27. 2026-07-05
    days on market $262,990 Active 74 DOM
28. 2026-07-03
    days on market $262,990 Active 73 DOM
29. 2026-07-02
    days on market $262,990 Active 72 DOM
30. 2026-07-01
    days on market $262,990 Active 71 DOM
31. 2026-06-30
    days on market $262,990 Active 70 DOM
32. 2026-06-29
    days on market $262,990 Active 69 DOM
33. 2026-06-28
    days on market $262,990 Active 68 DOM
34. 2026-06-27
    days on market $262,990 Active 67 DOM
35. 2026-06-26
    days on market $262,990 Active 66 DOM
36. 2026-06-24
    days on market $262,990 Active 64 DOM
37. 2026-06-22
    days on market $262,990 Active 62 DOM
38. 2026-06-21
    days on market $262,990 Active 61 DOM
39. 2026-06-18
    days on market $262,990 Active 58 DOM
40. 2026-06-17
    days on market $262,990 Active 57 DOM
41. 2026-06-16
    days on market $262,990 Active 56 DOM
42. 2026-06-15
    days on market $262,990 Active 55 DOM
43. 2026-06-13
    days on market $262,990 Active 53 DOM
44. 2026-06-13
    days on market $262,990 Active 52 DOM
45. 2026-06-09
    days on market $262,990 Active 49 DOM
46. 2026-06-08
    days on market $262,990 Active 48 DOM
47. 2026-06-07
    days on market $262,990 Active 47 DOM
48. 2026-06-04
    days on market $262,990 Active 44 DOM
49. 2026-06-03
    days on market $262,990 Active 43 DOM
50. 2026-06-02
    days on market $262,990 Active 42 DOM

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 5/10 Major
• 🌡 Heat 8/10 Severe 7 d/yr ≥111°F today · 25 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 8/10 Severe 99% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 1 unhealthy d/yr today · 2 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $25,440
• − Mortgage interest: −$25,407
• − Property taxes: −$6,804
• − Insurance: −$2,268
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$2,035
• − Management: −$2,035
• − Depreciation: −$13,195
• Taxable loss: −$26,303
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$6,313
• After-tax cash flow: $-11,204/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Condition & rehab AI · 1 photo

Good 80/100 Cosmetic rehab Est. rehab $10,305–$30,915 screening

The Oriole II Plan in Conroe, TX is in good condition with a cosmetic rehab level, ready for minor updates to enhance its resale and rental value.

Value-add opportunities

• Both Painting the exterior — Enhances curb appeal and value. ↑
• Both Landscaping improvements — Enhances curb appeal and value. ↑
• Both Interior touch-ups — Enhances interior aesthetics and value. ↑

ⓘ Rehab cost is a screening estimate — Cosmetic scope × the home's square footage at US $/sqft rules of thumb (the same model as the Flip Finder). Get contractor quotes + a written scope before underwriting.

D Composite school gradezoned avg 58/100

Zoned Schools

Elementary Lone Star El B- TX #455/4,322 Nat'l #8,048/41,679 High Montgomery H S C TX #327/1,632 Nat'l #4,023/17,239

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Montgomery ISD
• NCES district ID: 4831260
• Math proficiency: 63% ▼ -3.00%
• Reading proficiency: 57% ▼ -3.00%
• Median HH income: $75,596
• Composite: 53.55/100
• National rank: #1445
• State rank: #49 of 826 in TX

B Composite livability gradescore 70/100

Livability — Montgomery

• Score: 70/100
• State rank: #372
• US rank: #7894

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living C Crime A+ Employment A+ Housing A+ Health & safety F User ratings A-

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• County: Montgomery County · 713,896 people
• City population: 67,277
• Metro: Houston-The Woodlands-Sugar Land, TX
• Population (ZIP): 34,694
• Household income: $124,055
• Rent vs Own: 10.9% rent · 89.1% own
• Severe rent burden: 6% of renters

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Population outlook (Montgomery County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 713,896 people
• By 2030: 805,263 · +12.8%
• By 2040: 992,708 · +39.1%
• By 2050: 1,179,590 · +65.2%
• By 2075: 1,628,084 · +128.1%
• By 2100: 1,937,880 · +171.5%

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Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (80%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 80% Hispanic / Latino 14% Two or more races 11% Black 1% Asian 1%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 9%
• Common ancestry: Lithuanian 6% Slovak 3% Romanian 3%
• Foreign-born: 6% · Canada
• Languages at home: 90% English-only · Spanish 8%

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Political lean MEDSL · Montgomery

• 2024 margin: Solid R (+45.5) · D 26.8% · R 72.3%
• 2008→2024 swing: +7.2pp toward D · 2008: -52.7pp · 2024: -45.5pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+45.5 2020: R+43.8 2016: R+51.4 2012: R+60.7 2008: R+52.7

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -31.44%
• Current HPI: 262.6973
• Rent YoY: ▲ 0.40%
• Metro: Houston-The Woodlands-Sugar Land, TX
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.95%
• F500 in state: 110

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Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in TX)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Energy	16	$1,198B
▸Technology	5	$198B
▸Engineering / Construction	4	$72B
▸Energy Services	3	$60B
▸Utilities	3	$41B
▸Healthcare	2	$330B

Property features AI

Finance

• Financial info: List price $262,990

Exterior

• Parking: 2 parking spaces
• Utilities: Heat pump heatingCentral air conditioning
• Home design: Plan: The Oriole IINew construction plan
• Construction: Living area approximately 2,061 (plan specified)
• Exterior features: Property located on Keenan Cut Off Rd, Montgomery, TX

Interior

• Bedrooms: 3 bedrooms
• Bathrooms: 2 full bathrooms and 1 half bathroom (2.5 total)
• Heating & cooling: Heat pump heatingCentral air conditioning
• Interior features: Open living area (2,061 square feet total living area)