16097 Orange Grove Rd · Gulfport, MS 39503

$125,000

2 bd · 1.0 ba · 899 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 2 Days on market

Built 1940 0.47 ac lot $139/sqft · 6% above area Est $118k · 6% over

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Why this score? — see what drove the C grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +24.8/30.0
• DSCR +8.0/10.0
• 1% rule +5.3/10.0
• ARV discount +4.9/15.0
• Rent growth +4.2/5.0
• Schools +4.2/10.0
• Livability +3.7/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

Come, take a look at this cute two bedroom one bath starter home in the Orange Grove community! With an open floor plan, there is plenty of space to live comfortably in this cozy home. The home sits on 0.47 acres, which means there's plenty of room for the property to have a fence, a garden, and room to play! There's even room for a carport or garage to be added for future expansion. Don't waste a minute to come see this adorable home right on Orange Grove Road! (Co-Listing Agent: Darrian Edmonson)

Key facts

• 0.47 acre lot
• Built 1940
• Listed 2 days

Property features AI

Exterior

• Parking: Driveway
• Utilities: Public water; Public sewer; Electricity connected; Water connected; Sewer connected
• Home design: Single-family house; One story
• Construction: Brick veneer construction; Pillar/post/pier foundation; Built in public-records year
• Exterior features: Aluminum and architectural shingle roof; Lot approximately 0.47 acres

Interior

• Kitchen: Dishwasher; Electric range
• Bathrooms: 1 full bathroom
• Heating & cooling: Central heating; Central air; Ceiling fan(s)
• Interior features: Move-in ready; Dishwasher; Electric range

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 2-bed/1.0-bath single-family listed at $125k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $264 ($3k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($1k rent vs $125k).
• Cap rate 8.8% vs local median 4.9% in Gulfport — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 73/100 on livability (#15 in MS) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+, health & safety A+; Watch: schools D, amenities F, commute F.
• Harrison County School District (rural): math 52% / reading 46% proficiency, ranked #14 of 130 in MS (top 11%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases; 62% free/reduced lunch — lower-income household profile, screen leases tightly.
• Market conditions: Rents rising fast (+7.0%/yr); 763 active listings in the ZIP; 5 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals lingering (median 45d on market — plan ~5-8 weeks vacancy on turnover, expect pricing pressure); 60% of comp listings sitting > 30 days — soft ceiling on asking rent; 2,194 units permitted in Harrison County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $864 of loan paydown is wiped out by about $4k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Harrison County population projected at +27% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.
• At projected returns (-3.0% appreciation + 7.0% rent growth), your $35k cash investment doubles in ~9 years — after that, you're playing with house money.

Negotiation context

• Only 2 days on market — expect competitive offers; lowballing is unlikely to land.
• 2 sale attempts with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.

Risks & watch-outs

• Watch-outs: built in 1940 — expect roof / HVAC / electrical / plumbing capex.
• Climate carrying-cost: severe wind risk, 99% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→22/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $125,000

Questions for the listing agent

1. Built in 1940 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
2. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
3. Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
4. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
5. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
6. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.03% ✓
• Cap rate: 8.83%
• Cash-on-cash: 9.04%
• DSCR: 1.40
• GRM: 8.1

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $118,130
• List price: $125,000
• Delta: 5.82%
• Verdict: FAIR
• Comps: 10 within 1.0 mi

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 6.99% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 1.3%
• Equity multiple: 1.05×
• Total profit: $1,867
• Equity at exit: $18,638

10-year hold

• IRR: 14.3%
• Equity multiple: 2.34×
• Total profit: $46,989
• Equity at exit: $10,808

Cash invested: $35,000 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 90 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Mississippi: 90 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+11
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day pay-or-quit; very landlord-favorable; no rent control.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 39503

• Home prices YoY: -21.5%
• Rents YoY: 7.0%
• Active inventory: 763
• Price-to-rent: 8.1×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,286 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$656
• Tax from tax record: −$45 /mo · $537/yr
• Insurance: −$52
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$270
• Net cashflow: $264

Break-even live

Break-even rent $952

Max offer price $125,000

Occupancy floor 74%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $335	-5% $299	+0% $264	+5% $228	+10% $193
Rent	-10% $162	-5% $213	+0% $264	+5% $315	+10% $365
Rate	-1.0pp $327	-0.5pp $296	base $264	+0.5pp $231	+1.0pp $198

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $31,250
• Closing costs: $3,750
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 5 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
15373 Saint Charles St Gulfport, MS	3.0	1.0–3.0	1075	$1,182	$1.10	44d	2	0.63mi
11213 Dobson Rd Gulfport, MS	2.0	1.0	900	$1,200	$1.33	44d	1	0.96mi
15235 Oneal Rd Gulfport, MS	2.0	2.0	1101	$1,200	$1.09	14d	1	1.42mi
15235 Oneal Rd Gulfport, MS	1.0	1.0	873	$1,050	$1.20	44d	1	1.42mi
15235 Oneal Rd Gulfport, MS	1.0	1.0	873	$1,050	$1.20	21d	1	1.42mi

Listing history 4 events

1. 2026-05-03
   status Pending 503-char remark

   Show marketing remark (503 chars)

   Come, take a look at this cute two bedroom one bath starter home in the Orange Grove community! With an open floor plan, there is plenty of space to live comfortably in this cozy home. The home sits on 0.47 acres, which means there's plenty of room for the property to have a fence, a garden, and room to play! There's even room for a carport or garage to be added for future expansion. Don't waste a minute to come see this adorable home right on Orange Grove Road! (Co-Listing Agent: Darrian Edmonson)

2. 2026-05-02
   status Pending 451-char remark
3. 2026-04-30
   listed $125,000 Active 503-char remark

   Show marketing remark (503 chars)

   Come, take a look at this cute two bedroom one bath starter home in the Orange Grove community! With an open floor plan, there is plenty of space to live comfortably in this cozy home. The home sits on 0.47 acres, which means there's plenty of room for the property to have a fence, a garden, and room to play! There's even room for a carport or garage to be added for future expansion. Don't waste a minute to come see this adorable home right on Orange Grove Road! (Co-Listing Agent: Darrian Edmonson)

4. 2026-04-30
   listed $125,000 Active 451-char remark

   Show marketing remark (503 chars)

   Come, take a look at this cute two bedroom one bath starter home in the Orange Grove community! With an open floor plan, there is plenty of space to live comfortably in this cozy home. The home sits on 0.47 acres, which means there's plenty of room for the property to have a fence, a garden, and room to play! There's even room for a carport or garage to be added for future expansion. Don't waste a minute to come see this adorable home right on Orange Grove Road! (Co-Listing Agent: Darrian Edmonson)

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast MS · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $537 · $45/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $988 · $82/mo
• Expected delta: +$451/yr (+$38/mo · 83.9%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 4/10 Moderate
• 🌡 Heat 10/10 Extreme 7 d/yr ≥108°F today · 22 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 9/10 Extreme 99% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 1/10 Low 0 unhealthy d/yr today · 0 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $15,435
• − Mortgage interest: −$7,002
• − Property taxes: −$537
• − Insurance: −$625
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,235
• − Management: −$1,235
• − Depreciation: −$3,636
• Taxable income: $1,165
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$280
• After-tax cash flow: $2,886/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Harrison County School District
• NCES district ID: 2801770
• Math proficiency: 52% ▼ -4.00%
• Reading proficiency: 46% ▼ -4.00%
• Median HH income: $46,504
• Composite: 41.66/100
• National rank: #3419
• State rank: #14 of 130 in MS

Livability — Gulfport

• Score: 73/100
• State rank: #15
• US rank: #5010

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime B+ Employment F Housing A+ Health & safety A+ User ratings A

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Gulfport, MS
• County: Harrison County · 178,171 people
• City population: 96,188
• Metro: Gulfport-Biloxi, MS
• Population (ZIP): 55,059
• Household income: $62,641
• Rent vs Own: 29.3% rent · 70.7% own
• Severe rent burden: 1686.0

Population outlook (Harrison County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 228,444 people
• By 2030: 241,942 · +5.9%
• By 2040: 267,531 · +17.1%
• By 2050: 291,062 · +27.4%
• By 2075: 346,711 · +51.8%
• By 2100: 378,165 · +65.5%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Diverse neighborhood (Simpson 0.58)
• Race & ethnicity: White 58% Black 27% Two or more races 9% Hispanic / Latino 6% Asian 2%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 2% Puerto Rican 1%
• Common ancestry: Lithuanian 5% Slovak 1% Portuguese 1%
• Foreign-born: 3% · Canada
• Languages at home: 95% English-only · Spanish 3%

Political lean MEDSL · Harrison

• 2024 margin: Strong R (+28.9) · D 35.0% · R 63.9% · Other 1.1%
• 2008→2024 swing: -2.9pp toward R · 2008: -26.0pp · 2024: -28.9pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+28.9 2020: R+25.2 2016: R+30.7 2012: R+26.6 2008: R+26.0

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -51.39%
• Current HPI: 187.285
• Rent YoY: ▲ 6.99%
• Metro: Gulfport-Biloxi, MS
• State GDP YoY: —
• F500 in state: 0

Price history

+0.0% since first listed

4 events — show timeline

• 2026-05-03 Pending — PRCBOR
• 2026-05-02 Pending — MLSU
• 2026-04-30 Listed $125,000 MLSU
• 2026-04-30 Listed $125,000 PRCBOR

Property tax history

+6.0%/yr

Latest (2025): $537 · +7.1% YoY. Source: county tax records.