408 Chestnut St · Cumberland, MD 21502

$54,900

3 bd · 1.0 ba · 1,092 sqft · Townhouse public records · 266 Days on market

Built 1900 2,515 sqft lot $50/sqft · 24% above area Est $44k · 24% over

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Why this score? — see what drove the C+ grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +30.0/30.0
• 1% rule +10.0/10.0
• DSCR +10.0/10.0
• Rent growth +5.0/5.0
• Livability +3.9/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Schools +1.9/10.0
• ARV discount +0.0/15.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

3BR/1B home convenient to all amenities. Front and back porch. Perfect for investment.

Key facts

• Front and back porch
• 2,515 sq ft lot
• Built 1900

Tags

• FRONT AND BACK PORCH

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/1.0-bath townhouse listed at $55k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $637 ($8k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($1k rent vs $55k).
• Recommended offer: $48k (12.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Cap rate 20.2% vs local median 6.7% in Cumberland — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 78/100 on livability (#64 in MD, #2,385 nationally) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: amenities A+, commute A+, cost of living A+; Watch: schools D+, crime F, employment F.
• Allegany County Public Schools (other): math 15% / reading 30% proficiency, ranked #18 of 24 in MD (top 75%) — low school quality limits family demand, transient renter base, plan for 1-2y turnover.
• Market conditions: Rents rising fast (+10.9%/yr); 235 active listings in the ZIP; 7 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals lingering (median 44d on market — plan ~5-8 weeks vacancy on turnover, expect pricing pressure); 100% of comp listings sitting > 30 days — soft ceiling on asking rent; 24 units permitted in Allegany County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $380 of loan paydown is wiped out by about $2k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Allegany County population projected at -14% by 2050 — secular population decline; favor cash flow + early exit over multi-decade hold.
• At projected returns (-3.0% appreciation + 8.0% rent growth), your $15k cash investment doubles in ~3 years — after that, you're playing with house money.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 266 days — a 12% lower offer ($48k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 3 sale attempts since 28y ago; this cycle's ask has dropped $5k (8%) from the opening price — seller is motivated, your offer sets the floor, not the list.
• Current owner paid $33k; list at $55k implies a 66% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.

Risks & watch-outs

• Watch-outs: built in 1900 — expect roof / HVAC / electrical / plumbing capex.
• Climate carrying-cost: extreme-heat days projected 7→18/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $48,312 (12.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 266 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 12% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Built in 1900 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
3. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
4. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
5. Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
6. Crime grade is F in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
7. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
8. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
9. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 2.25% ✓
• Cap rate: 20.21%
• Cash-on-cash: 49.71%
• DSCR: 3.21
• GRM: 3.7

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $44,417
• List price: $54,900
• Delta: 23.60%
• Verdict: OVERPRICED
• Comps: 20 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 3 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
727 Shawnee Ave	0.45mi	2/1.0 (-1)	1,008 (-8%)	3mo	$65,000	$64	59
217 Pear St	0.28mi	2/1.0 (-1)	1,140 (+4%)	24mo	$60,000	$53	55
219 Pear St	0.28mi	2/1.0 (-1)	1,205 (+10%)	12mo	$47,000	$39	55

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 8.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 52.8%
• Equity multiple: 3.48×
• Total profit: $38,191
• Equity at exit: $8,186

10-year hold

• IRR: 59.9%
• Equity multiple: 8.49×
• Total profit: $115,196
• Equity at exit: $4,747

Cash invested: $15,372 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 27 Tenant-Leaning
• State Maryland: 27 Tenant-Leaning · D+14
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

Failure-to-pay is dismissed if cured before judgment; Baltimore has just-cause; strict deposit rules.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 21502

• Home prices YoY: -17.4%
• Rents YoY: 10.9%
• Active inventory: 235
• Price-to-rent: 3.7×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,236 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$288
• Tax from tax record: −$29 /mo · $348/yr
• Insurance: −$23
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$260
• Net cashflow: $637

Break-even live

Break-even rent $430

Max offer price $54,900

Occupancy floor 43%

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $13,725
• Closing costs: $1,647
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 7 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
423 Furnace St Cumberland, MD	3.0	1.5	1440	$1,250	$0.87	44d	1	0.13mi
118 Independence St Cumberland, MD	3.0	1.5	1260	$1,250	$0.99	44d	1	0.27mi
516 Bedford St Cumberland, MD	3.0	1.5	1500	$1,195	$0.80	44d	1	0.31mi
529 N Centre St Unit Rear Cumberland, MD	2.0	1.0	982	$850	$0.87	44d	1	0.31mi
418 N Mechanic St Unit 1B Cumberland, MD	2.0	1.0	1000	$1,195	$1.20	44d	1	0.34mi
418 N Mechanic St Unit 1C Cumberland, MD	3.0	1.0	1500	$1,295	$0.86	44d	1	0.34mi
201 Spring St Cumberland, MD	3.0	1.0	1332	$950	$0.71	44d	1	1.04mi

Listing history 22 events

1. 2026-06-19
   days on market $54,900 Active 266 DOM
2. 2026-06-18
   days on market $54,900 Active 265 DOM
3. 2026-06-17
   days on market $54,900 Active 264 DOM
4. 2026-06-16
   days on market $54,900 Active 263 DOM
5. 2026-06-15
   days on market $54,900 Active 262 DOM
6. 2026-06-14
   days on market $54,900 Active 260 DOM
7. 2026-06-12
   days on market $54,900 Active 259 DOM
8. 2026-06-09
   days on market $54,900 Active 256 DOM
9. 2026-06-08
   days on market $54,900 Active 255 DOM
10. 2026-06-07
    days on market $54,900 Active 254 DOM
11. 2026-06-02
    days on market $54,900 Active 249 DOM
12. 2026-06-01
    days on market $54,900 Active 248 DOM
13. 2026-05-31
    days on market $54,900 Active 247 DOM
14. 2026-05-30
    days on market $54,900 Active 246 DOM
15. 2026-02-25
    price $54,900 86-char remark

    Show marketing remark (86 chars)

    3BR/1B home convenient to all amenities. Front and back porch. Perfect for investment.

16. 2025-11-03
    price $57,900 86-char remark

    Show marketing remark (86 chars)

    3BR/1B home convenient to all amenities. Front and back porch. Perfect for investment.

17. 2025-09-26
    listed $59,700 Active 86-char remark

    Show marketing remark (86 chars)

    3BR/1B home convenient to all amenities. Front and back porch. Perfect for investment.

18. 2004-11-24
    soldstatus $33,000 373-char remark

    Show marketing remark (373 chars)

    NEW EVERYTHING W/ W CARPET WITH WARRANTY TRANSFERALBE TO BUYER. This is a completely remodeled half of double 2 bedrooms 1 full bath. Owner will consider a bulk purchase with properties 404 and 406 Chestnut. BRING ALL OFFERS!!! AGENTS TAKE NOTICE NOW OFFERING $1000.00 SELLING BONUS WITH ACCEPTABLE OFFER. Home comes with all appliances and they convey in as is condition.

19. 2004-10-18
    historical 373-char remark

    Show marketing remark (373 chars)

    NEW EVERYTHING W/ W CARPET WITH WARRANTY TRANSFERALBE TO BUYER. This is a completely remodeled half of double 2 bedrooms 1 full bath. Owner will consider a bulk purchase with properties 404 and 406 Chestnut. BRING ALL OFFERS!!! AGENTS TAKE NOTICE NOW OFFERING $1000.00 SELLING BONUS WITH ACCEPTABLE OFFER. Home comes with all appliances and they convey in as is condition.

20. 2004-04-22
    listed $38,000 373-char remark

    Show marketing remark (373 chars)

    NEW EVERYTHING W/ W CARPET WITH WARRANTY TRANSFERALBE TO BUYER. This is a completely remodeled half of double 2 bedrooms 1 full bath. Owner will consider a bulk purchase with properties 404 and 406 Chestnut. BRING ALL OFFERS!!! AGENTS TAKE NOTICE NOW OFFERING $1000.00 SELLING BONUS WITH ACCEPTABLE OFFER. Home comes with all appliances and they convey in as is condition.

21. 1998-11-30
    historical
22. 1998-03-01
    listed

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast MD · Partial reset (capped growth)

• Current annual tax: $348 · $29/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $473 · $39/mo
• Expected delta: +$125/yr (+$10/mo · 35.9%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 3/10 Moderate
• 🌡 Heat 5/10 Major 7 d/yr ≥101°F today · 18 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 2/10 Low
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 0 unhealthy d/yr today · 1 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $14,835
• − Mortgage interest: −$3,075
• − Property taxes: −$348
• − Insurance: −$274
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,187
• − Management: −$1,187
• − Depreciation: −$1,597
• Taxable income: $7,166
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$1,720
• After-tax cash flow: $5,922/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Allegany County Public Schools
• NCES district ID: 2400030
• Math proficiency: 15% ▼ -26.00%
• Reading proficiency: 30% ▼ -20.00%
• Median HH income: $39,760
• Composite: 18.95/100
• National rank: #8854
• State rank: #18 of 24 in MD

Livability — Cumberland

• Score: 78/100
• State rank: #64
• US rank: #2385

Category grades

Amenities A+ Commute A+ Cost of living A+ Crime F Employment F Housing A+ Health & safety A+ User ratings F

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Cumberland, MD
• County: Allegany County · 41,015 people
• City population: 41,015
• Metro: Cumberland, MD-WV
• Population (ZIP): 41,015
• Household income: $60,725
• Rent vs Own: 28.0% rent · 72.0% own
• Severe rent burden: 824.0

Population outlook (Allegany County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 68,778 people
• By 2030: 66,766 · -2.9%
• By 2040: 62,784 · -8.7%
• By 2050: 59,179 · -14.0%
• By 2075: 50,732 · -26.2%
• By 2100: 40,837 · -40.6%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (83%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 83% Black 9% Two or more races 5% Hispanic / Latino 2%
• Common ancestry: Slovak 3% Romanian 2% Italian 1%
• Foreign-born: 2% · Canada
• Languages at home: 96% English-only · Spanish 2%

Political lean MEDSL · Allegany

• 2024 margin: Solid R (+40.3) · D 28.9% · R 69.2% · Other 2.0%
• 2008→2024 swing: -14.4pp toward R · 2008: -25.9pp · 2024: -40.3pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+40.3 2020: R+38.3 2016: R+48.0 2012: R+32.9 2008: R+25.9

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -54.33%
• Current HPI: 258.6676
• Rent YoY: ▲ 10.88%
• Metro: Cumberland, MD-WV
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 2.97%
• F500 in state: 12

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in MD)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Aerospace / Defense	1	$71B
▸Utilities	1	$25B
▸Hotels	1	$24B
▸Consumer Goods	1	$7B
▸Real Estate	1	$6B
▸Chemicals	1	$2B

Price history

+44.5% since first listed

8 events — show timeline

• 2026-02-25 Price Changed $54,900 BRIGHT MLS
• 2025-11-03 Price Changed $57,900 BRIGHT MLS
• 2025-09-26 Listed $59,700 BRIGHT MLS
• 2004-11-24 Sold (MLS) $33,000 MRIS
• 2004-10-18 Delisted — MRIS
• 2004-04-22 Listed $38,000 MRIS
• 1998-11-30 Delisted — MRIS
• 1998-03-01 Listed — MRIS

Property tax history

+0.6%/yr

Latest (2025): $348 · +22.4% YoY. Source: county tax records.