551 Summit Trl #139 · Granby, CO 80446

$199,995

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,352 sqft · Manufactured · 80 Days on market

Built 2026 Excellent condition

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Why this score? — see what drove the B grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +30.0/30.0
• DSCR +10.0/10.0
• 1% rule +8.7/10.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• Condition / age +4.8/5.0
• Schools +4.2/10.0
• Livability +3.5/5.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks

Welcome home, to this beautiful 3 bedroom 2 bathroom. Located near a common space and backs up open space you will have plenty of space to enjoy the surrounding outdoors. This home has a large living room that feeds into a dining area featuring a large bay window. There is also a breakfast bar separating the kitchen and a corner pantry for all your kitchen storage. The kitchen comes with Whirlpool energy-efficient appliances and can lighting throughout. The primary bedroom includes a pass through bathroom that leads to the laundry area and back door and also features a large closet and large shower with glass doors. Each of the other two spare rooms have walkin closets and are located close

Key facts

• Built 2026
• Listed 80 days

Property features AI

Finance

• Financial info: List price $221,995

Exterior

• Home design: Spec home (new construction); Single-level residence
• Construction: Built in 2026 (new construction)
• Exterior features: Located at 551 Summit Trl #139, Granby CO 80446; Living area approximately 1,352

Interior

• Bedrooms: 3 bedrooms
• Bathrooms: 2 full bathrooms
• Interior features: Open floor plan

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath manufactured listed at $200k. Condition is rated excellent.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $664 ($8k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($3k rent vs $200k).
• Recommended offer: $188k (6.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Cap rate 11.0% vs local median 1.4% in Granby — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 70/100 on livability (#85 in CO) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: crime A+, housing A+, employment B+; Watch: commute D+, amenities F, health & safety F.
• East Grand School District No. 2 (rural): math 36% / reading 58% proficiency, ranked #17 of 86 in CO (top 20%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Zoned schools: Granby Elementary School (math 34% / reading 52%, grade F, #300 of 966 statewide, top 32%, 331 students, 38% FRL); East Grand Middle School (math 32% / reading 47%, grade F, #84 of 270 statewide, top 32%, 290 students, 22% FRL); Middle Park High School (math 42% / reading 67%, grade C-, #78 of 381 statewide, top 22%, 406 students, 20% FRL).
• Market conditions: 429 active listings in the ZIP; 294 units permitted in Grand County in 2024 (82 in 5+ unit buildings).
• This rent runs 44% of the median local income ($75k/yr) — at the standard rent-burdened threshold; future hikes will face affordability resistance.

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $1k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $6k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Grand County population projected at -16% by 2050 — secular population decline; favor cash flow + early exit over multi-decade hold.
• At projected returns (-3.0% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $56k cash investment doubles in ~9 years — after that, you're playing with house money.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 80 days — a 6% lower offer ($188k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.

Risks & watch-outs

• Watch-outs: flood insurance adds $125/mo.
• Climate carrying-cost: in FEMA flood zone A (mandatory federal flood insurance) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $187,995 (6.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 80 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 6% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. What's the actual annual flood-insurance premium (NFIP or private), and is the property in a SFHA with mandatory coverage?
3. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
4. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
5. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
6. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
7. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.37% ✓
• Cap rate: 11.03%
• Cash-on-cash: 16.92%
• DSCR: 1.75
• GRM: 6.1

CMA / ARV

No comps found within radius.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 4.6%
• Equity multiple: 1.18×
• Total profit: $10,018
• Equity at exit: $29,820

10-year hold

• IRR: 14.1%
• Equity multiple: 2.14×
• Total profit: $63,682
• Equity at exit: $17,292

Cash invested: $55,999 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 38 Tenant-Leaning
• State Colorado: 38 Tenant-Leaning · D+4
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

2023 reforms: 10-day cure, mandated notice, source-of-income protected. Courts backlogged in Denver.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 80446

• Home prices YoY: -23.1%
• Active inventory: 429
• Price-to-rent: 6.1×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $2,749 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,049
• Tax est. 1.5%: −$250 /mo · $3,000/yr
• Insurance: −$83
• Flood insurance flood zone: −$125 /mo · $1,502/yr
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$577
• Net cashflow: $664

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,908

Max offer price $199,995

Occupancy floor 71%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $802	-5% $733	+0% $664	+5% $595	+10% $526
Rent	-10% $447	-5% $556	+0% $664	+5% $773	+10% $881
Rate	-1.0pp $765	-0.5pp $715	base $664	+0.5pp $612	+1.0pp $560

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $49,999
• Closing costs: $6,000
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Listing history 16 events

1. 2026-06-21
   days on market $199,995 Active 80 DOM
2. 2026-06-18
   days on market $199,995 Active 77 DOM
3. 2026-06-17
   days on market $199,995 Active 76 DOM
4. 2026-06-16
   days on market $199,995 Active 75 DOM
5. 2026-06-15
   days on market $199,995 Active 74 DOM
6. 2026-06-14
   days on market $199,995 Active 72 DOM
7. 2026-06-10
   days on market $199,995 Active 69 DOM
8. 2026-06-09
   days on market $199,995 Active 68 DOM
9. 2026-06-08
   days on market $199,995 Active 67 DOM
10. 2026-06-07
    days on market $199,995 Active 66 DOM
11. 2026-06-05
    days on market $199,995 Active 63 DOM
12. 2026-06-03
    days on market $199,995 Active 62 DOM
13. 2026-06-02
    days on market $199,995 Active 61 DOM
14. 2026-06-01
    days on market $199,995 Active 60 DOM
15. 2026-05-31
    days on market $199,995 Active 59 DOM
16. 2026-05-31
    days on market $199,995 Active 58 DOM

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone A · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 4/10 Moderate
• 🌡 Heat 1/10 Low 8 d/yr ≥81°F today · 23 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 1/10 Low
• 🫁 Air quality 3/10 Moderate 2 unhealthy d/yr today · 3 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $32,986
• − Mortgage interest: −$11,203
• − Property taxes: −$3,000
• − Insurance: −$2,502
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$2,639
• − Management: −$2,639
• − Depreciation: −$5,818
• Taxable income: $5,185
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$1,244
• After-tax cash flow: $6,727/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Condition & rehab AI · 13 photos

Excellent 95/100 None rehab

This move-in-ready manufactured home is in excellent condition with modern finishes and a well-maintained exterior. Minor updates to the exterior and landscaping would significantly enhance its curb appeal and value.

Value-add opportunities

• Both Painting the exterior siding — Enhances curb appeal and value.
• Both Landscaping the front yard — Improves curb appeal and adds value.
• Both Installing a smart thermostat — Saves energy and adds modern convenience.

Renovation cost estimate screening

Value-add ROI direction

• Both Painting the exterior siding — Enhances curb appeal and value. ↑
• Both Landscaping the front yard — Improves curb appeal and adds value. ↑
• Both Installing a smart thermostat — Saves energy and adds modern convenience. ↑

ⓘ Cost ranges are severity-bucket heuristics (US national rule-of-thumb). Get contractor quotes + a written scope before underwriting a rehab budget.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: East Grand School District No. 2
• NCES district ID: 0804320
• Math proficiency: 36% ▼ -2.00%
• Reading proficiency: 58% ▲ 4.00%
• Median HH income: $64,903
• Composite: 41.64/100
• National rank: #3424
• State rank: #17 of 86 in CO

Livability — Granby

• Score: 70/100
• State rank: #85
• US rank: #7574

Category grades

Amenities F Commute D+ Cost of living C+ Crime A+ Employment B+ Housing A+ Health & safety F User ratings A+

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Granby, CO
• County: Grand County · 5,874 people
• City population: 4,017
• Metro: nan
• Population (ZIP): 4,017
• Household income: $74,973
• Rent vs Own: 33.1% rent · 66.9% own
• Severe rent burden: 105.0

Population outlook (Grand County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 14,498 people
• By 2030: 14,215 · -2.0%
• By 2040: 13,225 · -8.8%
• By 2050: 12,186 · -15.9%
• By 2075: 10,196 · -29.7%
• By 2100: 8,326 · -42.6%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (79%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 79% Two or more races 19% Hispanic / Latino 6%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Puerto Rican 2%
• Common ancestry: Slovak 8% Portuguese 6% Romanian 2%
• Foreign-born: 2% · Canada, Jamaica
• Languages at home: 98% English-only · Russian/Polish/Slavic 1% French/Haitian/Cajun 1% Spanish 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Grand

• 2024 margin: Toss-up / Even · D 48.0% · R 48.8% · Other 3.2%
• 2008→2024 swing: +0.3pp no change · 2008: -1.1pp · 2024: -0.8pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+0.8 2020: R+1.8 2016: R+13.5 2012: R+7.2 2008: R+1.1

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -104.78%
• Current HPI: 347.8691
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: nan
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 1.95%
• F500 in state: 14

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in CO)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Technology Distribution	1	$31B
▸Food / Agriculture	1	$18B
▸Packaging	1	$14B
▸Healthcare	1	$13B
▸Energy	1	$10B
▸Technology	1	$4B