3819 Lancer Cir · Pearland, TX 77581

$295,000

3 bd · 2.5 ba · 1,889 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 41 Days on market

Built 2020 3,001 sqft lot $156/sqft · at area comps Est $287k · at est. $100/mo HOA · 3% of rent

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Why this score? — see what drove the D grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +10.7/30.0
• ARV discount +6.2/15.0
• Schools +5.4/10.0
• 1% rule +5.0/10.0
• Livability +4.0/5.0
• Rent growth +3.2/5.0
• DSCR +3.1/10.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

This impeccable townhome near Old Town Pearland shows like a model & boasts a stunning interior with high ceilings and an open floorplan. The kitchen is a chef's dream with granite counters, 42" cabinets with under cabinet lighting, and a large island/breakfast bar with undermount sink. The living room features a wall of windows overlooking the covered patio and fenced backyard. Guest 1/2 bath downstairs. Upstairs, a game room/loft provides additional living space with a desk area. The primary bedroom has a spa-like ensuite supersize shower with bench seat & dual sinks and a walk-in closet. Secondary bedrooms share hall bath with dual sinks. Enjoy neighborhood amenities like walking trails around the lake, a pier for fishing (catch & release), covered pavilion and a playground. With nearby Independence Park offering more walking trails, tennis courts, dog park and festivals. Quick access to Beltway 8, this home offers the perfect blend of convenience and luxury.

Key facts

• Shopping
• Local amenities
• Dining

Tags

• PRIVATE OUTDOOR SPACE
• LOCAL AMENITIES
• SHOPPING
• DINING

Property features AI

Finance

• HOA & community: Monthly association fee of $100; Association covers common areas, structure maintenance, and recreation facilities

Exterior

• Parking: Attached 2-car garage
• Security: Leased security system; Smoke detectors
• Utilities: Public water; Public sewer
• Home design: Residential property; 2 stories; Entry level includes first and second floors
• Construction: Built in 2020; Brick, cement siding, and wood siding exterior; Composition roof; Slab foundation
• Exterior features: Concrete road access; Recreation facilities included in association; Common area maintenance included in association

Interior

• Kitchen: Granite counters; Pantry; Microwave; Oven; Dishwasher; Garbage disposal; Refrigerator; ENERGY STAR qualified appliances; Tankless water heater
• Bedrooms: Primary bedroom (second level) — 14 x 11; Bedroom (second level) — 12 x 11; Bedroom (second level) — 11 x 11
• Flooring: Carpet; Tile
• Bathrooms: 2 full bathrooms; 1 half bathroom
• Heating & cooling: Central heating (electric and gas); Central air conditioning (electric and gas)
• Interior features: Crown molding; Entrance foyer; Granite counters; High ceilings; Kitchen/family room combo; Primary bathroom; Pantry; Ceiling fans; Programmable thermostat; Low emissivity windows; Security system leased; Smoke detectors
• Laundry & utility: Laundry in utility room; Electric dryer hookup; Washer; Dryer

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/2.5-bath single-family listed at $295k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-138 ($-2k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $271k (8.3% below list).
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($3k rent vs $295k).
• Recommended offer: $271k (8.3% below list) — sets the bar for cash-flow.
• Cap rate 5.7% vs local median 3.0% in Pearland — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 81/100 on livability (#32 in TX, #1,539 nationally) — a professional / high-income tenant draw. Strengths: employment A+, housing A+, crime A; Watch: amenities D-, commute F.
• Pearland ISD (suburban): math 58% / reading 59% proficiency, ranked #47 of 826 in TX (top 6%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease.
• Zoned schools: C J Harris El (math 44% / reading 44%, grade F, #1,243 of 4,322 statewide, top 29%, 561 students, 53% FRL); Pearland J H East (math 61% / reading 62%, grade B+, #141 of 1,662 statewide, top 9%, 848 students, 34% FRL); Pearland H S (math 58% / reading 64%, grade C+, #258 of 1,632 statewide, top 16%, 3,261 students, 36% FRL).
• Market conditions: Rents rising (+2.9%/yr); 316 active listings in the ZIP; 7 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals leasing fast (median 5d on market — plan ~1-2 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); high-income renter base; 3,960 units permitted in Brazoria County in 2024 (593 in 5+ unit buildings).
• This rent runs 32% of the median local income ($111k/yr) — at the standard rent-burdened threshold; future hikes will face affordability resistance.

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $2k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $9k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Brazoria County population projected at +44% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 41 days — a 3% lower offer ($286k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 3 sale attempts since 2y ago; this cycle's ask has dropped $20k (6%) from the opening price — seller is motivated, your offer sets the floor, not the list.

Risks & watch-outs

• Watch-outs: property tax is 2.8% of price.
• Climate carrying-cost: severe wind risk, 99% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→25/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $270,552 (8.3% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. It's been on market 41 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 8% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
3. Property tax is high relative to price — has the assessment been appealed recently, and will the sale trigger a re-assessment?
4. What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
5. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
6. Schools are A-rated — typically a magnet for longer-tenancy family renters. What's the average tenant stay here, and is there a school-zone premium baked into asking?
7. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
8. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
9. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
10. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.00% ✓
• Cap rate: 5.73%
• Cash-on-cash: -2.01%
• DSCR: 0.91
• GRM: 8.3

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $286,692
• List price: $295,000
• Delta: 2.90%
• Verdict: FAIR
• Comps: 20 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 12 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
2505 Kaman Ln	0.11mi	3/2.0	1,811 (-4%)	3mo	$329,000	$182	84
2503 S Houston Ave	0.38mi	3/2.0	1,887 (-0%)	8mo	$446,010	$236	73
4505 Brazos Bend Dr	0.53mi	3/2.0	1,900 (+1%)	2mo	$335,000	$176	71
4505 Cedar Hill Dr	0.54mi	3/2.0	1,865 (-1%)	6mo	$299,000	$160	66
2406 Shelia St	0.57mi	3/2.0	1,962 (+4%)	2mo	$329,000	$168	63
4610 Meridian Park Dr	0.60mi	3/2.0	1,830 (-3%)	6mo	$325,000	$178	60
2515 S Houston Ave	0.36mi	3/2.0	1,662 (-12%)	4mo	$420,005	$253	58
2908 Yorkshire Ct	0.73mi	3/2.0	1,894 (+0%)	8mo	$239,900	$127	57
3211 Jacquelyn Dr	0.75mi	3/3.0	1,886 (-0%)	9mo	$304,900	$162	56
2712 Kaman Ln	0.25mi	4/2.0 (+1)	2,098 (+11%)	9mo	$357,950	$171	55
3305 Churchill St	0.56mi	3/2.0	1,717 (-9%)	2mo	$325,000	$189	55
2405 Jacquelyn Dr	0.74mi	3/2.0	1,651 (-13%)	3mo	$329,000	$199	40

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 2.94% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -19.6%
• Equity multiple: 0.32×
• Total profit: $-56,485
• Equity at exit: $43,985

10-year hold

• IRR: -12.2%
• Equity multiple: 0.27×
• Total profit: $-60,007
• Equity at exit: $25,506

Cash invested: $82,600 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Texas: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+5
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day notice; statewide preemption; one of the fastest eviction climates; Travis County (Austin) slightly slower.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 77581

• Home prices YoY: -29.1%
• Rents YoY: 2.9%
• Active inventory: 316
• Price-to-rent: 8.3×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $2,952 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,547
• Tax from tax record: −$701 /mo · $8,406/yr
• Insurance: −$123
• HOA: −$100
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$620
• Net cashflow: $-138

Break-even live

Break-even rent $3,127

Max offer price $270,552

Occupancy floor 100%

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $73,750
• Closing costs: $8,850
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 7 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
3803 Lancer Cir Unit 1467759P Pearland, TX	2.0	2.0	2034	$3,522	$1.73	2d	1	0.07mi
2900 Pearland Pkwy Pearland, TX	1.0–3.0	1.0–2.0	992	$2,317	$2.33	5d	12	0.91mi
2902 Whispering Winds Dr Unit 2935 Pearland, TX	3.0	2.0	1366	$2,119	$1.55	2d	1	0.99mi
2902 Whispering Winds Dr Unit 3047 Pearland, TX	3.0	2.0	1366	$2,127	$1.56	17d	1	1.05mi
3196 John Lizer Rd Pearland, TX	3.0	2.0	1325	$1,934	$1.46	11d	1	1.07mi
3318 Cactus Heights Ln Pearland, TX	3.0	2.5	2091	$2,585	$1.24	12d	1	1.11mi
1710 Old Alvin Rd Pearland, TX	1.0–3.0	1.0–2.0	960	$1,986	$2.07	2d	13	1.43mi

HOA detail

• Monthly dues: $100 · $1,200/yr
• Likely covers: cable

Listing history 20 events

1. 2026-06-18
   days on market $295,000 Active 41 DOM
2. 2026-06-17
   price $295,000 Active 40 DOM
3. 2026-06-17
   days on market $310,000 Active 40 DOM
4. 2026-06-16
   days on market $310,000 Active 39 DOM
5. 2026-06-15
   days on market $310,000 Active 38 DOM
6. 2026-06-13
   days on market $310,000 Active 36 DOM
7. 2026-06-09
   days on market $310,000 Active 32 DOM
8. 2026-06-08
   days on market $310,000 Active 31 DOM
9. 2026-06-07
   days on market $310,000 Active 30 DOM
10. 2026-06-04
    days on market $310,000 Active 27 DOM
11. 2026-06-03
    days on market $310,000 Active 26 DOM
12. 2026-06-02
    days on market $310,000 Active 25 DOM
13. 2026-06-01
    days on market $310,000 Active 24 DOM
14. 2026-05-31
    days on market $310,000 Active 23 DOM
15. 2026-05-01
    listed $315,000 Active 929-char remark
16. 2024-07-15
    soldstatus
17. 2024-07-09
    soldstatus Sold 999-char remark

    Show marketing remark (999 chars)

    This impeccable townhome near Old Town Pearland shows like a model & boasts a stunning interior with high ceilings and an open floorplan. The kitchen is a chef's dream with granite counters, 42" cabinets with under cabinet lighting, and a large island/breakfast bar with undermount sink. The living room features a wall of windows overlooking the covered patio and fenced backyard. Guest 1/2 bath downstairs. Upstairs, a game room/loft provides additional living space with a desk area. The primary bedroom has a spa-like ensuite supersize shower with bench seat & dual sinks and a walk-in closet. Secondary bedrooms share hall bath with dual sinks. Enjoy neighborhood amenities like walking trails around the lake, a pier for fishing (catch & release), covered pavilion and a playground. With nearby Independence Park offering more walking trails, tennis courts, dog park and festivals. Quick access to Beltway 8, this home offers the perfect blend of convenience and luxury.

18. 2024-06-19
    status Pending 999-char remark

    Show marketing remark (999 chars)

    This impeccable townhome near Old Town Pearland shows like a model & boasts a stunning interior with high ceilings and an open floorplan. The kitchen is a chef's dream with granite counters, 42" cabinets with under cabinet lighting, and a large island/breakfast bar with undermount sink. The living room features a wall of windows overlooking the covered patio and fenced backyard. Guest 1/2 bath downstairs. Upstairs, a game room/loft provides additional living space with a desk area. The primary bedroom has a spa-like ensuite supersize shower with bench seat & dual sinks and a walk-in closet. Secondary bedrooms share hall bath with dual sinks. Enjoy neighborhood amenities like walking trails around the lake, a pier for fishing (catch & release), covered pavilion and a playground. With nearby Independence Park offering more walking trails, tennis courts, dog park and festivals. Quick access to Beltway 8, this home offers the perfect blend of convenience and luxury.

19. 2024-06-11
    status Option Pending 999-char remark

    Show marketing remark (999 chars)

    This impeccable townhome near Old Town Pearland shows like a model & boasts a stunning interior with high ceilings and an open floorplan. The kitchen is a chef's dream with granite counters, 42" cabinets with under cabinet lighting, and a large island/breakfast bar with undermount sink. The living room features a wall of windows overlooking the covered patio and fenced backyard. Guest 1/2 bath downstairs. Upstairs, a game room/loft provides additional living space with a desk area. The primary bedroom has a spa-like ensuite supersize shower with bench seat & dual sinks and a walk-in closet. Secondary bedrooms share hall bath with dual sinks. Enjoy neighborhood amenities like walking trails around the lake, a pier for fishing (catch & release), covered pavilion and a playground. With nearby Independence Park offering more walking trails, tennis courts, dog park and festivals. Quick access to Beltway 8, this home offers the perfect blend of convenience and luxury.

20. 2024-05-30
    listed $289,500 Active 999-char remark

    Show marketing remark (999 chars)

    This impeccable townhome near Old Town Pearland shows like a model & boasts a stunning interior with high ceilings and an open floorplan. The kitchen is a chef's dream with granite counters, 42" cabinets with under cabinet lighting, and a large island/breakfast bar with undermount sink. The living room features a wall of windows overlooking the covered patio and fenced backyard. Guest 1/2 bath downstairs. Upstairs, a game room/loft provides additional living space with a desk area. The primary bedroom has a spa-like ensuite supersize shower with bench seat & dual sinks and a walk-in closet. Secondary bedrooms share hall bath with dual sinks. Enjoy neighborhood amenities like walking trails around the lake, a pier for fishing (catch & release), covered pavilion and a playground. With nearby Independence Park offering more walking trails, tennis courts, dog park and festivals. Quick access to Beltway 8, this home offers the perfect blend of convenience and luxury.

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast TX · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $8,406 · $701/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $8,406 · $701/mo
• Expected delta: $0/yr ($0/mo · 0.0%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 4/10 Moderate FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 22% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 2/10 Low
• 🌡 Heat 10/10 Extreme 7 d/yr ≥108°F today · 25 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 9/10 Extreme 99% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 1 unhealthy d/yr today · 2 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $35,423
• − Mortgage interest: −$16,525
• − Property taxes: −$8,406
• − Insurance: −$1,475
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$2,834
• − Management: −$2,834
• − HOA: −$1,200
• − Depreciation: −$8,582
• Taxable loss: −$6,432
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$1,544
• After-tax cash flow: $-117/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Pearland ISD
• NCES district ID: 4834440
• Math proficiency: 58% ▼ -13.00%
• Reading proficiency: 59% ▼ -6.00%
• Median HH income: $90,091
• Composite: 53.67/100
• National rank: #1430
• State rank: #47 of 826 in TX

Livability — Pearland

• Score: 81/100
• State rank: #32
• US rank: #1539

Category grades

Amenities D- Commute F Cost of living B Crime A Employment A+ Housing A+ Health & safety C User ratings A+

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Pearland, TX
• County: Brazoria County · 374,982 people
• City population: 142,397
• Metro: Houston-The Woodlands-Sugar Land, TX
• Population (ZIP): 51,332
• Household income: $111,139
• Rent vs Own: 22.9% rent · 77.1% own
• Severe rent burden: 826.0

Population outlook (Brazoria County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 420,414 people
• By 2030: 457,585 · +8.8%
• By 2040: 532,232 · +26.6%
• By 2050: 605,399 · +44.0%
• By 2075: 779,358 · +85.4%
• By 2100: 883,759 · +110.2%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Diverse neighborhood (Simpson 0.66)
• Race & ethnicity: White 47% Hispanic / Latino 33% Two or more races 20% Black 10% Asian 7%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 26% Puerto Rican 2%
• Common ancestry: Lithuanian 2% Slovak 2% Romanian 2%
• Foreign-born: 12% · Canada, Vietnam, Guatemala
• Languages at home: 77% English-only · Spanish 16% Other Indo-European 3% Vietnamese 2%

Political lean MEDSL · Brazoria

• 2024 margin: R (+19.7) · D 39.5% · R 59.2% · Other 1.3%
• 2008→2024 swing: +9.9pp toward D · 2008: -29.6pp · 2024: -19.7pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+19.7 2020: R+18.2 2016: R+24.6 2012: R+34.2 2008: R+29.6

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -100.56%
• Current HPI: 244.7942
• Rent YoY: ▲ 2.94%
• Metro: Houston-The Woodlands-Sugar Land, TX
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.95%
• F500 in state: 110

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in TX)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Energy	16	$1,198B
▸Technology	5	$198B
▸Engineering / Construction	4	$72B
▸Energy Services	3	$60B
▸Utilities	3	$41B
▸Healthcare	2	$330B

Price history

+1.9% since first listed

10 events — show timeline

• 2026-06-17 Price Changed $295,000 HARMLS
• 2026-05-28 Relisted — HARMLS
• 2026-05-28 Price Changed $310,000 HARMLS
• 2026-05-21 Listing Removed — HARMLS
• 2026-05-01 Listed $315,000 HARMLS
• 2024-07-15 Sold (Public Records) — Public Records
• 2024-07-09 Sold (MLS) — HARMLS
• 2024-06-19 Pending — HARMLS
• 2024-06-11 Pending — HARMLS
• 2024-05-30 Listed $289,500 HARMLS

Property tax history

+80.9%/yr

Latest (2025): $8,406 · +0.0% YoY. Source: county tax records.