219 Carlisle St · Rochester, NY 14615

$149,900

3 bd · 1.0 ba · 1,344 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 5 Days on market

Built 1951 6,098 sqft lot Est $210k · 29% under

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Why this score? — see what drove the C+ grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +20.7/30.0
• ARV discount +15.0/15.0
• 1% rule +6.7/10.0
• DSCR +6.6/10.0
• Livability +3.8/5.0
• Schools +3.2/10.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks

Super affordable and full of potential! This charming 1,344 sq. ft. Cape Cod offers incredible value in the highly desirable Greece Central School District. Conveniently located near shopping, restaurants, parks, and everyday amenities, this home combines comfort and practicality with a flexible floor plan to fit your lifestyle. Inside, you’ll find three bedrooms, 1.5 baths, and a formal dining room—perfect for gatherings, entertaining, or easily converting into a home office or playroom. Major updates provide peace of mind, including a roof, furnace, and central air system all approximately 10 years old. Updated vinyl windows enhance energy efficiency and natural light througho

Key facts

• Formal dining room
• Flexible floor plan
• Energy efficiency

Tags

• FLEXIBLE FLOOR PLAN
• FORMAL DINING ROOM
• MAJOR UPDATES
• UPDATED VINYL WINDOWS
• ENERGY EFFICIENCY

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/1.0-bath single-family listed at $150k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $204 ($2k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($2k rent vs $150k).

Location & tenants

• Location reads 76/100 on livability (#222 in NY, #3,482 nationally) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: commute A+, cost of living A+, housing A+; Watch: schools D+, crime F, employment F.
• Greece Central School District (suburban): math 35% / reading 39% proficiency, ranked #544 of 590 in NY (top 92%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Market conditions: 74 active listings in the ZIP; 9 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals leasing fast (median 3d on market — plan ~1-2 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); 1,169 units permitted in Monroe County in 2024 (591 in 5+ unit buildings).
• This rent runs 41% of the median local income ($51k/yr) — at the standard rent-burdened threshold; future hikes will face affordability resistance.

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $1k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $4k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Monroe County population projected to shrink 6% by 2050 — rents likely to lag national; underwrite the cash flow, not the appreciation.

Negotiation context

• Only 5 days on market — expect competitive offers; lowballing is unlikely to land.

Risks & watch-outs

• Watch-outs: property tax is 2.6% of price; built in 1951 — expect roof / HVAC / electrical / plumbing capex.

Recommended offer $149,900

Questions for the listing agent

1. Built in 1951 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
2. Property tax is high relative to price — has the assessment been appealed recently, and will the sale trigger a re-assessment?
3. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
4. Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
5. Crime grade is F in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
6. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
7. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
8. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.17% ✓
• Cap rate: 7.93%
• Cash-on-cash: 5.84%
• DSCR: 1.26
• GRM: 7.1

CMA / ARV

• ARV (on-the-fly): $209,664
• Comps found: 12

Show comp detail 12 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
22 Mac Arthur Rd	0.16mi	4/2.0 (+1)	1,332 (-1%)	1mo	$242,000	$182	81
19 Mac Arthur Rd	0.13mi	4/1.0 (+1)	1,416 (+5%)	2mo	$183,000	$129	78
647 Bonesteel St	0.64mi	3/1.0	1,344 (0%)	3mo	$210,000	$156	68
80 Everett St	0.19mi	3/1.0	1,172 (-13%)	4mo	$190,000	$162	67
37 Glenora Dr	0.43mi	3/1.0	1,260 (-6%)	4mo	$112,170	$89	66
46 Maynard St	0.23mi	3/1.0	1,152 (-14%)	1mo	$220,000	$191	64
34 Carlisle St	0.26mi	3/1.0	1,155 (-14%)	0mo	$183,000	$158	64
222 Oakwood Rd	0.63mi	2/1.0 (-1)	1,332 (-1%)	0mo	$180,000	$135	64
2351 Dewey Ave	0.61mi	3/1.0	1,292 (-4%)	3mo	$165,000	$128	62
90 Eastland Rd	0.73mi	3/1.0	1,274 (-5%)	4mo	$180,000	$141	54
84 Mayflower St	0.57mi	4/1.0 (+1)	1,166 (-13%)	2mo	$130,000	$111	45
62 Benwell Rd	0.66mi	2/1.5 (-1)	1,200 (-11%)	2mo	$210,000	$175	43

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -7.2%
• Equity multiple: 0.73×
• Total profit: $-11,169
• Equity at exit: $22,351

10-year hold

• IRR: 2.5%
• Equity multiple: 1.18×
• Total profit: $7,482
• Equity at exit: $12,961

Cash invested: $41,972 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 15 Strongly Tenant-Friendly
• State New York: 15 Strongly Tenant-Friendly · D+10
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

NYC rent stabilization (~1M units); 2019 HSTPA strengthened tenant rights; courts deeply backlogged.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 14615

• Home prices YoY: -11.7%
• Active inventory: 74
• Price-to-rent: 7.1×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,748 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$786
• Tax from tax record: −$328 /mo · $3,935/yr
• Insurance: −$62
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$367
• Net cashflow: $204

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,489

Max offer price $149,900

Occupancy floor 83%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $289	-5% $247	+0% $204	+5% $162	+10% $119
Rent	-10% $66	-5% $135	+0% $204	+5% $273	+10% $342
Rate	-1.0pp $280	-0.5pp $242	base $204	+0.5pp $165	+1.0pp $126

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $37,475
• Closing costs: $4,497
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 9 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
100 Andover St Rochester, NY	2.0	1.0	750	$1,795	$2.39	3d	63	0.25mi
60 Grand Teton St Greece, NY	2.0–3.0	2.0	1833	$2,673	$1.46	3d	3	0.48mi
1902 Dewey Ave Unit 1896 Rochester, NY	2.0	1.0	900	$1,150	$1.28	24d	1	0.69mi
230 Pullman Ave Unit 1 Rochester, NY	2.0	1.0	900	$1,100	$1.22	15d	1	1.09mi
287 Electric Ave Rochester, NY	3.0	1.5	1297	$1,500	$1.16	3d	1	1.26mi
116 Ridgeway Ave Rochester, NY	3.0	2.0	1032	$1,650	$1.60	3d	1	1.31mi
176 Kingsberry Dr Greece, NY	1.0–2.0	1.0–1.5	757	$1,535	$2.03	3d	7	1.34mi
248 Flower City Park Rochester, NY	3.0	1.0	1350	$1,800	$1.33	3d	1	1.39mi
45 Clay Ave Rochester, NY	3.0	1.0	1000	$1,700	$1.70	15d	1	1.50mi

Listing history 2 events

1. 2026-03-03
   status Pending
2. 2026-02-25
   listed $149,900 Active

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast NY · Partial reset (capped growth)

• Current annual tax: $3,935 · $328/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $3,935 · $328/mo
• Expected delta: $0/yr ($0/mo · 0.0%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 1/10 Low
• 🌡 Heat 2/10 Low 7 d/yr ≥95°F today · 15 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 1/10 Low
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 1 unhealthy d/yr today · 2 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $20,973
• − Mortgage interest: −$8,397
• − Property taxes: −$3,935
• − Insurance: −$750
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,678
• − Management: −$1,678
• − Depreciation: −$4,361
• Taxable income: $175
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$42
• After-tax cash flow: $2,409/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Greece Central School District
• NCES district ID: 3612630
• Math proficiency: 35% ▼ -14.00%
• Reading proficiency: 39% ▼ -3.00%
• Median HH income: $52,718
• Composite: 32.26/100
• National rank: #5761
• State rank: #544 of 590 in NY

Livability — Rochester

• Score: 76/100
• State rank: #222
• US rank: #3482

Category grades

Amenities B- Commute A+ Cost of living A+ Crime F Employment F Housing A+ Health & safety A+ User ratings F

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• County: Monroe County · 674,131 people
• City population: 432,803
• Metro: Rochester, NY
• Population (ZIP): 17,884
• Household income: $51,262
• Rent vs Own: 45.6% rent · 54.4% own
• Severe rent burden: 1245.0

Population outlook (Monroe County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 759,460 people
• By 2030: 757,154 · -0.3%
• By 2040: 740,644 · -2.5%
• By 2050: 714,443 · -5.9%
• By 2075: 645,883 · -15.0%
• By 2100: 547,084 · -28.0%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Diverse neighborhood (Simpson 0.68)
• Race & ethnicity: White 45% Black 27% Hispanic / Latino 20% Two or more races 9% Asian 3%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Puerto Rican 16% Cuban 2%
• Common ancestry: Arab 3% Romanian 2% Subsaharan African 2%
• Foreign-born: 10% · Canada, India, Vietnam
• Languages at home: 81% English-only · Spanish 11% Arabic 2% Other Indo-European 2%

Political lean MEDSL · Monroe

• 2024 margin: D (+19.1) · D 59.5% · R 40.5%
• 2008→2024 swing: +1.4pp toward D · 2008: 17.7pp · 2024: 19.1pp
• All cycles: 2024: D+19.1 2020: D+21.0 2016: D+14.1 2012: D+17.4 2008: D+17.7

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -31.81%
• Current HPI: 240.6896
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: Rochester, NY
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 2.60%
• F500 in state: 92

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in NY)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Financial Services	10	$950B
▸Consumer Goods	9	$162B
▸Insurance	4	$225B
▸Telecommunications	2	$144B
▸Pharmaceuticals	2	$112B
▸Media / Entertainment	2	$69B

Price history

2 events — show timeline

• 2026-03-03 Pending — UNYREIS
• 2026-02-25 Listed $149,900 UNYREIS

Property tax history

+2.7%/yr

Latest (2025): $3,935 · +68.3% YoY. Source: county tax records.