2400 E Baseline Ave #30 · Apache Junction, AZ 85119

$141,000

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,680 sqft · Manufactured · 105 Days on market

Built 1997 Est $134k · at est. ↓ 21% since listing

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Why this score? — see what drove the B- grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +30.0/30.0
• DSCR +10.0/10.0
• 1% rule +9.6/10.0
• ARV discount +5.3/15.0
• Livability +3.3/5.0
• Rent growth +2.9/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Schools +1.5/10.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks

Immaculate, move-in ready home in a gated 55+ community with a rare, private outdoor retreat and a long list of updates buyers love. Enjoy a spacious split 3-bedroom, 2-bath layout featuring both a living room & separate family room, plus formal dining--perfect for hosting, hobbies, or having visiting guests. The home has been thoughtfully improved with 2022 roof, fresh exterior paint, and stylish, durable waterproof laminate flooring. The bright kitchen stands out with soft-close cabinetry, generous counter space along w/ a skylight that fills the space w/ natural light. Both bathrooms feature updated flooring & the primary bath is complemented by new pot lights and a heated/li

Key facts

• Gated community
• Lush privacy hedge
• Large covered patio

Tags

• GATED COMMUNITY
• PRIVATE OUTDOOR RETREAT
• UPDATED FLOORING
• LARGE COVERED PATIO
• MISTING SYSTEM
• LUSH PRIVACY HEDGE

Property features AI

Finance

• Other: Tax info available; Directions to gated community entrance provided
• HOA & community: Land lease with a monthly fee; Land lease amount $933 per month; Association covers grounds maintenance and street maintenance; Community pool; Association rules prohibit visible trucks, trailers, RVs, and boats

Exterior

• Parking: 3 covered parking spaces; 3 carport spaces
• Utilities: City water; Public sewer
• Home design: Manufactured/mobile home; Leasehold ownership; Mountain views
• Construction: Lap siding and cement siding; Wood frame construction; Painted exterior; Composition roof; Building area per assessor
• Exterior features: Misting system; Chain-link fencing; Shed(s); Sprinklers in front and rear with automatic timers; Gravel/stone in rear yard; Synthetic grass in rear yard; East/West exposure; City-maintained road

Interior

• Kitchen: Built-in microwave; Refrigerator; Dishwasher; Garbage disposal
• Bedrooms: Up to 3 bedrooms
• Flooring: Laminate flooring
• Bathrooms: 2 full bathrooms
• Heating & cooling: Heat pump heating; Central air conditioning; Ceiling fans; Programmable thermostat
• Interior features: High-speed internet available; No interior steps; Vaulted ceilings; Full bathroom in primary bedroom; Skylights; Dual-pane windows with vinyl frames
• Laundry & utility: Indoor laundry

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath manufactured listed at $141k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $656 ($8k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($2k rent vs $141k).
• Recommended offer: $128k (9.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Cap rate 11.9% vs local median 3.5% in Apache Junction — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 66/100 on livability (#70 in AZ) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+; Watch: crime D+, schools F, amenities F.
• Apache Junction Unified District (4443) (suburban): math 15% / reading 20% proficiency, ranked #195 of 249 in AZ (top 78%) — low school quality limits family demand, transient renter base, plan for 1-2y turnover.
• Market conditions: Rents rising (+1.6%/yr); 354 active listings in the ZIP; 13 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals leasing fast (median 12d on market — plan ~1-2 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); 9,504 units permitted in Pinal County in 2024 (776 in 5+ unit buildings).
• This rent runs 35% of the median local income ($72k/yr) — at the standard rent-burdened threshold; future hikes will face affordability resistance.

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $975 of loan paydown is wiped out by about $4k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• At projected returns (-3.0% appreciation + 1.6% rent growth), your $39k cash investment doubles in ~7 years — after that, you're playing with house money.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 105 days — a 9% lower offer ($128k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 3 sale attempts since 3y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: major wildfire risk; extreme-heat days projected 6→15/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $128,310 (9.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 105 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 9% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
3. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
4. Schools are F-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
5. Crime grade is D in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
6. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
7. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
8. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.46% ✓
• Cap rate: 11.88%
• Cash-on-cash: 19.94%
• DSCR: 1.89
• GRM: 5.7

CMA / ARV

• ARV (on-the-fly): $134,400
• Comps found: 12

Show comp detail 12 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
3355 S Cortez Rd #28	0.31mi	2/2.0 (-1)	1,512 (-10%)	0mo	$77,000	$51	64
3301 S Goldfield Rd #2095	0.62mi	2/2.0 (-1)	1,632 (-3%)	2mo	$129,900	$80	60
3301 S Goldfield Rd #2056	0.73mi	2/2.0 (-1)	1,680 (0%)	2mo	$177,500	$106	60
3301 S Goldfield Rd #2102	0.66mi	2/2.0 (-1)	1,720 (+2%)	1mo	$120,000	$70	59
3301 S Goldfield Rd #1054	0.62mi	2/2.0 (-1)	1,586 (-6%)	1mo	$165,000	$104	56
3700 S Tomahawk Rd #93	0.59mi	2/2.0 (-1)	1,568 (-7%)	0mo	$80,000	$51	56
3700 S Tomahawk Rd #16	0.72mi	3/2.0	1,512 (-10%)	0mo	$119,900	$79	50
3301 S Goldfield Rd #2015	0.73mi	2/2.0 (-1)	1,795 (+7%)	1mo	$145,000	$81	49
3301 S Goldfield Rd #4028	0.68mi	2/2.0 (-1)	1,890 (+12%)	1mo	$157,500	$83	42
3301 S Goldfield Rd #1015	0.73mi	3/3.0	1,874 (+12%)	2mo	$140,000	$75	41
3301 S Goldfield Rd #3038	0.73mi	2/2.0 (-1)	1,915 (+14%)	1mo	$171,000	$89	37
3700 S Tomahawk Rd #91	0.72mi	2/2.0 (-1)	1,428 (-15%)	1mo	$85,000	$60	36

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 1.57% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 10.5%
• Equity multiple: 1.41×
• Total profit: $16,046
• Equity at exit: $21,024

10-year hold

• IRR: 18.4%
• Equity multiple: 2.42×
• Total profit: $56,238
• Equity at exit: $12,191

Cash invested: $39,480 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Arizona: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+3
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

5-day pay-or-quit; AZ courts known for speed; no state rent control; cities preempted by state law.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 85119

• Home prices YoY: -33.5%
• Rents YoY: 1.6%
• Active inventory: 354
• Price-to-rent: 5.7×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $2,064 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$739
• Tax est. 1.5%: −$176 /mo · $2,115/yr
• Insurance: −$59
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$433
• Net cashflow: $656

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,233

Max offer price $141,000

Occupancy floor 63%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $754	-5% $705	+0% $656	+5% $607	+10% $559
Rent	-10% $493	-5% $575	+0% $656	+5% $738	+10% $819
Rate	-1.0pp $727	-0.5pp $692	base $656	+0.5pp $620	+1.0pp $582

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $35,250
• Closing costs: $4,230
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 13 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
3705 S Conestoga Rd Apache Junction, AZ	3.0	2.0	1700	$1,895	$1.11	25d	1	0.09mi
3879 S Conestoga Rd Apache Junction, AZ	3.0	2.0	1578	$1,910	$1.21	25d	1	0.11mi
2369 E 35th Ave Apache Junction, AZ	3.0	2.5	1892	$2,100	$1.11	5d	1	0.14mi
3333 S Conestoga Rd Apache Junction, AZ	3.0	2.0	1387	$2,900	$2.09	25d	1	0.29mi
3448 S Chaparral Rd Apache Junction, AZ	3.0	2.0	1186	$1,848	$1.56	12d	1	0.33mi
3478 S Chaparral Rd Apache Junction, AZ	3.0	2.5	1614	$1,850	$1.15	6d	1	0.34mi
3277 S Chaparral Rd Apache Junction, AZ	3.0	2.5	1614	$1,770	$1.10	4d	1	0.39mi
2681 E Boulder Ave Apache Junction, AZ	3.0	3.5	1776	$2,200	$1.24	25d	1	0.42mi
2191 E Greenlee Ave Apache Junction, AZ	4.0	3.0	2184	$2,275	$1.04	3d	1	0.52mi
2653 S Powell Rd Apache Junction, AZ	4.0	2.0	1560	$1,945	$1.25	6d	1	0.73mi
3301 S Goldfield Rd Unit 4077 Apache Junction, AZ	2.0	2.0	1548	$1,850	$1.20	25d	1	0.74mi
2491 S Siphon Peak Rd Apache Junction, AZ	4.0	3.0	1948	$3,278	$1.68	25d	1	0.88mi
700 E Quail Ave Apache Junction, AZ	3.0	2.0	1168	$1,795	$1.54	6d	1	1.46mi

Listing history 21 events

1. 2026-06-18
   days on market $141,000 Active 105 DOM
2. 2026-06-18
   price $141,000 Active 104 DOM
3. 2026-06-17
   days on market $143,900 Active 104 DOM
4. 2026-06-16
   days on market $143,900 Active 103 DOM
5. 2026-06-15
   days on market $143,900 Active 102 DOM
6. 2026-06-13
   days on market $143,900 Active 100 DOM
7. 2026-06-09
   days on market $143,900 Active 96 DOM
8. 2026-06-08
   days on market $143,900 Active 95 DOM
9. 2026-06-07
   days on market $143,900 Active 94 DOM
10. 2026-06-04
    days on market $143,900 Active 91 DOM
11. 2026-06-03
    days on market $143,900 Active 90 DOM
12. 2026-06-02
    days on market $143,900 Active 89 DOM
13. 2026-06-01
    days on market $143,900 Active 88 DOM
14. 2026-05-31
    days on market $143,900 Active 87 DOM
15. 2026-04-23
    price $143,900
16. 2026-03-05
    listed $145,900 Active
17. 2023-11-22
    historical
18. 2023-11-03
    listed $169,900 Active
19. 2023-06-28
    historical
20. 2023-02-14
    price $179,700
21. 2023-02-02
    listed $182,500 Active

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 6/10 Major
• 🌡 Heat 8/10 Severe 6 d/yr ≥111°F today · 15 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 1/10 Low
• 🫁 Air quality 3/10 Moderate 3 unhealthy d/yr today · 4 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $24,768
• − Mortgage interest: −$7,898
• − Property taxes: −$2,115
• − Insurance: −$705
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,981
• − Management: −$1,981
• − Depreciation: −$4,102
• Taxable income: $5,985
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$1,436
• After-tax cash flow: $6,437/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Apache Junction Unified District (4443)
• NCES district ID: 0400790
• Math proficiency: 15% ▼ -17.00%
• Reading proficiency: 20% ▼ -13.00%
• Median HH income: $44,930
• Composite: 15.34/100
• National rank: #9325
• State rank: #195 of 249 in AZ

Livability — Apache Junction

• Score: 66/100
• State rank: #70
• US rank: #11242

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime D+ Employment D- Housing A+ Health & safety F User ratings A+

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Apache Junction, AZ
• County: Pinal County · 399,947 people
• City population: 56,611
• Metro: Phoenix-Mesa-Chandler, AZ
• Population (ZIP): 25,420
• Household income: $71,585
• Rent vs Own: 20.1% rent · 79.9% own
• Severe rent burden: 305.0

Population outlook (Pinal County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 437,574 people
• By 2030: 446,903 · +2.1%
• By 2040: 452,589 · +3.4%
• By 2050: 444,126 · +1.5%
• By 2075: 430,300 · -1.7%
• By 2100: 393,536 · -10.1%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (74%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 74% Hispanic / Latino 19% Two or more races 12% Black 2% Asian 1%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 17%
• Common ancestry: Slovak 5% Portuguese 3% Lithuanian 3%
• Foreign-born: 8% · Canada
• Languages at home: 87% English-only · Spanish 11%

Political lean MEDSL · Pinal

• 2024 margin: Strong R (+22.1) · D 38.5% · R 60.6%
• 2008→2024 swing: -7.6pp toward R · 2008: -14.5pp · 2024: -22.1pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+22.1 2020: R+17.3 2016: R+19.3 2012: R+17.1 2008: R+14.5

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -138.19%
• Current HPI: 274.3808
• Rent YoY: ▲ 1.57%
• Metro: Phoenix-Mesa-Chandler, AZ
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 4.54%
• F500 in state: 20

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in AZ)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Technology	2	$13B
▸Mining / Metals	1	$23B
▸Environmental Services	1	$16B
▸Metals / Steel	1	$14B
▸Technology Distribution	1	$9B
▸Homebuilding	1	$8B

Price history

-21.2% since first listed

7 events — show timeline

• 2026-04-23 Price Changed $143,900 ARMLS
• 2026-03-05 Listed $145,900 ARMLS
• 2023-11-22 Listing Removed — ARMLS
• 2023-11-03 Listed $169,900 ARMLS
• 2023-06-28 Listing Removed — ARMLS
• 2023-02-14 Price Changed $179,700 ARMLS
• 2023-02-02 Listed $182,500 ARMLS