2419 Cottonwood Rd · Bakersfield, CA 93307

$150,000

2 bd · 1.0 ba · 1,096 sqft · MultiFamily public records · 22 Days on market

Built 1989 0.68 ac lot

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Why this score? — see what drove the B grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +30.0/30.0
• 1% rule +10.0/10.0
• DSCR +10.0/10.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• Rent growth +3.9/5.0
• Schools +3.4/10.0
• Livability +2.9/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Multi-family units

County records classify this as Multi-Family (2-4 Unit). Listing-text estimate: 1 unit. estimate disagrees with records

Listing remarks

Great investment opportunity! This fixer-upper duplex features a 2 bedroom, 1 bath layout plus an additional building, all situated on approximately half an acre. Property offers tons of potential for rental income, expansion, or redevelopment. With plenty of space and multiple structures, this is a rare chance to add value. Bring your vision to the property, sold as-is. Cash or hard money only

Key facts

• Multiple structures
• Additional building
• Fixer-upper duplex

Tags

• FIXER-UPPER DUPLEX
• ADDITIONAL BUILDING
• HALF AN ACRE
• RENTAL INCOME
• MULTIPLE STRUCTURES

Property features AI

Exterior

• Parking: Has RV space
• Utilities: Public water; Sewer
• Construction: Composition roof
• Exterior features: RV space available (dimensions TBD)

Interior

• Bathrooms: 1 full bathroom
• Heating & cooling: Evaporative cooling; Floor/wall heaters
• Interior features: Evaporative cooling; Floor/wall heaters

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 2-bed/1.0-bath multifamily listed at $150k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $1k ($14k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($3k rent vs $150k).
• Recommended offer: $148k (1.5% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Cap rate 15.7% vs local median 3.6% in Bakersfield — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 58/100 on livability (#716 in CA) — a working-class tenant base; expect higher turnover. Strengths: housing A+; Watch: health & safety D, schools D-, crime F.
• Kern High (urban): math 21% / reading 51% proficiency, ranked #860 of 1,400 in CA (top 61%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Market conditions: Rents rising fast (+5.7%/yr); 311 active listings in the ZIP; 7 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals leasing fast (median 3d on market — plan ~1-2 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); 3,244 units permitted in Kern County in 2024 (73 in 5+ unit buildings).
• At $2,759/mo this rent would consume 59% of the median local household income ($56k/yr) (locally 3246% of renters already pay >50% of income on rent) — very limited rent-growth headroom before tenants either downsize or default.

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $1k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $4k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Kern County population projected at +17% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.
• At projected returns (-3.0% appreciation + 5.7% rent growth), your $42k cash investment doubles in ~4 years — after that, you're playing with house money.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 22 days — a 2% lower offer ($148k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: moderate wildfire risk; extreme-heat days projected 7→20/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $147,750 (1.5% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
2. Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
3. Crime grade is F in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
4. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
5. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
6. How much new apartment / multifamily construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply (>2% of stock underway) typically softens rents 12–24 months out; light construction supports rent growth.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.84% ✓
• Cap rate: 15.71%
• Cash-on-cash: 33.62%
• DSCR: 2.50
• GRM: 4.5

CMA / ARV

No comps found within radius.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 5.71% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 31.9%
• Equity multiple: 2.39×
• Total profit: $58,383
• Equity at exit: $22,365

10-year hold

• IRR: 40.5%
• Equity multiple: 5.31×
• Total profit: $180,942
• Equity at exit: $12,969

Cash invested: $42,000 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 18 Strongly Tenant-Friendly
• State California: 18 Strongly Tenant-Friendly · D+13
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

AB1482 statewide rent cap (10% + CPI). Cities (SF/LA/Berkeley) layer stricter rules. Just-cause statewide.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 93307

• Rents YoY: 5.7%
• Active inventory: 311
• Price-to-rent: 9.1×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $2,759 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$787
• Tax from tax record: −$154 /mo · $1,846/yr
• Insurance: −$62
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$579
• Net cashflow: $1,177

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,270

Max offer price $150,000

Occupancy floor 52%

2-unit breakdown (identical units grouped — click to expand)

Units	Beds	Baths	Est. rent
▸ 2× units	2	1	$2,758
Total (2 units)			$2,759

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $37,500
• Closing costs: $4,500
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 7 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
900 Melwood St Bakersfield, CA	3.0	2.0	1014	$2,500	$2.47	3d	1	0.38mi
1401 Reese Ave Bakersfield, CA	3.0	2.0	1354	$1,100	$0.81	14d	1	0.94mi
400 White Ln Bakersfield, CA	2.0	1.0	900	$1,399	$1.55	2d	1	1.32mi
3461 S Chester Ave Apt 19 Bakersfield, CA	2.0	1.5	975	$1,295	$1.33	43d	1	1.33mi
2909 S Chester Ave Unit 16 Bakersfield, CA	2.0	1.5	700	$995	$1.42	2d	1	1.44mi
4412 Gordon St Bakersfield, CA	3.0	1.0	1039	$1,795	$1.73	2d	1	1.46mi
2905 S Chester Ave Apt C Bakersfield, CA	2.0	2.0	800	$1,395	$1.74	2d	1	1.46mi

Listing history 2 events

1. 2026-05-01
   status Pending
2. 2026-04-10
   listed $150,000 Active

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast CA · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $1,846 · $154/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $1,846 · $154/mo
• Expected delta: $0/yr ($0/mo · 0.0%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 5/10 Major
• 🌡 Heat 8/10 Severe 7 d/yr ≥105°F today · 20 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 1/10 Low
• 🫁 Air quality 10/10 Extreme 33 unhealthy d/yr today · 37 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $33,108
• − Mortgage interest: −$8,402
• − Property taxes: −$1,846
• − Insurance: −$750
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$2,649
• − Management: −$2,649
• − Depreciation: −$4,364
• Taxable income: $12,449
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$2,988
• After-tax cash flow: $11,132/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Kern High
• NCES district ID: 0619540
• Math proficiency: 21% ▬ 0.00%
• Reading proficiency: 51% ▲ 2.00%
• Median HH income: $49,686
• Composite: 33.68/100
• National rank: #10443
• State rank: #860 of 1400 in CA

Livability — Bakersfield

• Score: 58/100
• State rank: #716
• US rank: #21355

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living F Crime F Employment C+ Housing A+ Health & safety D User ratings D-

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Bakersfield, CA
• County: Kern County · 710,371 people
• City population: 499,124
• Metro: Bakersfield, CA
• Population (ZIP): 85,945
• Household income: $56,446
• Rent vs Own: 53.0% rent · 47.0% own
• Severe rent burden: 3246.0

Population outlook (Kern County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 947,286 people
• By 2030: 978,984 · +3.3%
• By 2040: 1,045,018 · +10.3%
• By 2050: 1,105,232 · +16.7%
• By 2075: 1,229,538 · +29.8%
• By 2100: 1,238,059 · +30.7%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly Hispanic (80%)
• Race & ethnicity: Hispanic / Latino 80% Two or more races 12% White 10% Black 6% Asian 3% Native American 1%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 73%
• Common ancestry: Lithuanian 0%
• Foreign-born: 31% · Canada
• Languages at home: 28% English-only · Spanish 69% Other Indo-European 1% Arabic 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Kern

• 2024 margin: Strong R (+21.1) · D 38.2% · R 59.3% · Other 2.5%
• 2008→2024 swing: -3.3pp toward R · 2008: -17.8pp · 2024: -21.1pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+21.1 2020: R+10.2 2016: R+15.0 2012: R+20.9 2008: R+17.8

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -263.59%
• Current HPI: 447.1746
• Rent YoY: ▲ 5.71%
• Metro: Bakersfield, CA
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.21%
• F500 in state: 116

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in CA)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Technology	27	$1,492B
▸Financial Services	3	$174B
▸Retail	3	$44B
▸Insurance	3	$26B
▸Media / Entertainment	2	$115B
▸Pharmaceuticals / Biotech	2	$62B

Price history

2 events — show timeline

• 2026-05-01 Pending — GEMLS
• 2026-04-10 Listed $150,000 GEMLS

Property tax history

+3.7%/yr

Latest (2025): $1,846 · +2.4% YoY. Source: county tax records.